22-23 Rookies… (based on product YG) alive, asleep, or deceased?

[reddragonthe]

I know we’d rather talk about Bedard and Celebrini… but with the Johnston thread and (inexplicably) 22-23 product still floating around “new”… thought we could look at the class with a little hindsight now and decide if they are hobby “alive”, “asleep”, or “dead”.

Alive - studs or near studs. Passing the eye test. Still with the hobby love.

Asleep - not hitting the mark. Or the scoring sheet. Still could wake up… but patience is running short. Could also apply to someone in that class with an early “rookie” that realistically was going to be in the AHL for a bit anyway.

Dead - the hobby has moved on. We know who they are and while we may like them on the wing of our favorite team’s 3rd line… the market will not care. Probably ever. Probably?


Here are some I’ve been following…

Slafkovsky - alive - thought about asleep. But nothing sleeps in the Montreal market. Alive or dead. And I can’t mark him deceased. Yet. Still just 20. Top 6. But goal pace is rather dreadful. 50 point pace.

Johnston - asleep - but signs he’s waking up. 8 points in his last 10. Playing special teams. On a better line and getting top comp. Still 21. Feel he’s probably still top 2 or 3 from this class for ceiling. Future captain and star potential. A guy that could be “the” hobby guy from a team (and we know it’s hard if you aren’t that guy for the hobby to care… MIKKO RANTANEN!)

Matt Boldy - alive - but does anyone know? PPG on one of the best teams in the NHL. Hanging out with Kaprizov def helps. “Old” at 23.

Rossi - dead - remember, this is hobby death. Not actual or hockey ability. Because he’s got other headliners around him… 5th? In the hobby pecking order maybe. Kap, Boldy, Jesper (until we bore of him and remember he’s a 22 yo goalie), MAF?, Faber? Hockey wise he’s been C1 with injuries. And on a 70 point pace.

Guenther - alive - admittedly biased pick. As a Blackhawks fan I had to pick a team to watch that scored more than 2 goals per game and damn that Utah owner seems fun. I think UHC is going to be hot, too. City kinda booming. Buzz. Young. So I watch a lot of Utah when I can. And he’s a puck magnet. PPG pace. 14 points in his last 10 (5 goals). Still just 21.


Beniers - dead - “following” used loosely here. 7 points in the last 10 so maybe there’s hope. I get that Seattle is a nice local market but 90% of the country doesn’t know they play. Too late. Kinda blah. Minutes/lines all over the place. He probably ends up someday as a nice piece on a contending team. I just don’t know if anyone will care enough.

Owen Power - alive* - *for a defender - soft spot for the blue liners. And he’s a good one, IMO. On the ice all the time. 50+ point pace. He’s large. Still probably figuring out how the levers can work together. I don’t know if he’s Makar at 1.25 PPG… but just feels like he’s a PPG guy on the blue line for years. Which means we won’t care… but he’s got a shot.

Kent Johnson - alive -. Columbus is pretty fun, actually. Was there for work and the place was buzzing. Team is fun too. Voronkov, Marcenko, Johnson… some fun youth. When he’s played this year he’s actually 1+ PPG. Just 15 games after missing a month. I don’t think he’s a guy I’m banking on for sure… but I think one of these Columbus kids has some staying power hobby wise.

Brandt Clarke - asleep - just a baby defender. 21. 40 point pace in really his first true season. I think he runs the power play for a bunch of years which should give him a chance at increasing the point total. But a west coaster so most of us can just read about it in the internet.

Necessary Hawks category:

Reichel - dead - these glimpses of what filled me with hope are still there. He’s just not a top 6 guy. Rooting for him.

Vlasic - Alive - Homer pick here. He’s great. Shining beacon of light on one of the oddest rosters in hockey full of underperforming folks and one huge shiny object. He covers acres of space. Is starting to step up and assert himself on the rush. Is running the power play. Seems to never leave the ice (getting 24 TOI per game). Again- it’s relative. He’ll never outsell a good forward in the hobby. But he’s been v good.

Other quick reactions:

Shane Wright - dead (signs of life)
Jack Quinn - asleep
Jiricek- asleep. Now in the state of hockey. But Faber is already the odds on hobby attention grabber.
Jake Sanderson - alive (defense-alive)
Holloway - asleep (rising from the dead?) broke his 8 game point streak against the juggernaut defense that is San Jose… but 11 points in his last 10 including 6 goals.

Dostal/Pyotr/Ersson - alive/asleep/dead - always tough with goalies. But this is what I’d go with.

[ThatGuyPal]

I think it's hard based on your definitions, like by definition I would personally call Guenther "dead" as the hobby has moved on and you never hear someone saying "Im gonna pick up a Guenther YG". Not to mention as you said he's having a good year and I'd argue still no one outside Utah/their fans care. Third I think it will be hard as you mentioned one "hobby guy" from a team, and he'll be competing with Cooley for awhile until one emerges as the clear frontrunner which won't happen that quickly.

The problem is in your definition you correlated the "hobby moving on" with a guy being a 3rd liner. I don't think they are mutual as there are guys who are beasts who I'd say the hobby has passed by like Artemi Panarin.

[stoopid]

I agree with most of your assessments, but as TGP said -- it's tough making sense of 'hobby buzz' which doesn't always match actual on ice performance. Guenther is a good example, that market is mostly dead in the hobby so he'll need a 60 goal season to ever see true demand like for other stars on larger market/original 6 teams. I think Sabres, Ducks, and Hawks rookies are all overrated if we're look at actual projected output on teams that have shown no outward evidence of improvement year over year.

[Seahawks fan]

I wouldn't put Wright as Dead yet. He was dead then the Kraken benched him for 3 games. Since bringing him back he's had 11 points in 10 games with 4 of those being power play goals.

Marchenko is another 22/23 RC who is alive. 10 more points than Kent Johnson who you have listed as Alive.

But yes overall the 22/23 class is pretty weak. 22/23 Buoy rookies probably have more hobby upside than half the people you mentioned.

[anusinha]

Most of these guys are basically hobby dead, aside from Slav who only lives because he is on the Canadiens.

If you arent on a Crosby pace by year 2-3, you're basically tossed into the pile of meh.

[mallowciraptor]

Guenther is the only player from this class that I'd have an interest in building a larger collection of.

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by Seahawks fan

I wouldn't put Wright as Dead yet. He was dead then the Kraken benched him for 3 games. Since bringing him back he's had 11 points in 10 games with 4 of those being power play goals.

Marchenko is another 22/23 RC who is alive. 10 more points than Kent Johnson who you have listed as Alive.

But yes overall the 22/23 class is pretty weak. 22/23 Buoy rookies probably have more hobby upside than half the people you mentioned.

Yeah - Marchenko is fun - whole team has been - but he's 2+ years older and scoring SLIGHTLY less (Johnson's missed month gives an odd perspective if you ignore it).

[Satan]

These labels feel more appropriate for NFL QBs than NHL skaters. You're telling me that 20 year old Shane Wright - 11 pts in his last 10 games - is dead to the hobby?

[kingb22]

For me Boldy, Johnston and Johnson are the 3 I'm actively looking for. Johnson has to prove he can stay healthy but he has some elite skills you can't teach. Beniers I can't figure out at all - he's approaching the point of needing a new team

[Seahawks fan]

Originally Posted by Satan

These labels feel more appropriate for NFL QBs than NHL skaters. You're telling me that 20 year old Shane Wright - 11 pts in his last 10 games - is dead to the hobby?

His last 3 red PMG Rookies sold for $22. No more hype = hobby death....but as a collector I love it.

[Satan]

Originally Posted by Seahawks fan

His last 3 red PMG Rookies sold for $22. No more hype = hobby death....but as a collector I love it.

If we really want to talk about hobby death its PMGs. UD beat that dead horse

[Seahawks fan]

Originally Posted by Satan

If we really want to talk about hobby death its PMGs. UD beat that dead horse

I agree. The mystique of PMGS were they were done for only a few years. That being said they would have still worked since each season would have new rookies and a rookie PMG should hold value. But then they had to water that down with retro PMG rookies. Then you add multiple retro pmgs/comic pmgs in the same set and it's all over.

Go back to regular PMGs with 0 retros and comic PMGS as insane Odd hits like 1 per 4 cases. You have a recipe of success.

[JohnnyAppleseed]

I'll tell you right now as someone who wants to get more of his on-card autos and RPAs, Brandt Clarke's prices have only just recently waned ever so slightly, he is by no means "hobby asleep."

[FatButcher]

Looks like it will be a PMG or Auto in every box of 24-25, should dilute the value a little more I'd think.

[Satan]

Originally Posted by JohnnyAppleseed

I'll tell you right now as someone who wants to get more of his on-card autos and RPAs, Brandt Clarke's prices have only just recently waned ever so slightly, he is by no means "hobby asleep."

What happens when Drew Doughty reclaims his spot on PP1 in the new year? But I agree with you - Brandt Clarke is a great example of a rising star... it might take a few more years to earn the coach's trust though.

[stoopid]

PMGs are numbered and even with a few different numbered options, they're still significantly more scarce than other cards from MU. They also still look nice in hand, so it comes down to the hype fading and those who aren't into the cards exiting that market. I have in recent years bought a bunch of PMGs as the prices softened. And to get them in high grade (7 or better is 'high grade') adds a premium too.

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by Satan

What happens when Drew Doughty reclaims his spot on PP1 in the new year? But I agree with you - Brandt Clarke is a great example of a rising star... it might take a few more years to earn the coach's trust though.

And... defenseman. Doughty is a great example of how even good (likely HoF) defensemen lose the hobby's interest over time.