Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Onions]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Fine, Randall Cunningham... happy?

Point is, because a QB who can pass well sometimes runs and extends plays when young, that doesn't mean *poof* gone from the league prematurely.

Cunningham had one last good year with the Vikes, late in his career at the ripe old age of 35.

Russel Wilson is toast at 36. Well before actually, but yeah, he is still in the league.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by Onions

Cunningham had one last good year with the Vikes, late in his career at the ripe old age of 35.

Yea... That was the standard at the time (mid to late 30s).

Standard now with surgery/training/conditioning/nutrition is different. Doubly so for elite guys. Maybe you've heard of LeBron?

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Yea... That was the standard at the time (mid to late 30s).

Standard now with surgery/training/conditioning/nutrition is different. Doubly so for elite guys. Maybe you've heard of LeBron?

When it comes to playing professional sports at an elite level for 20+ years, LeBron and Brady are the exceptions, not the rule.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

When it comes to playing professional sports at an elite level for 20+ years, LeBron and Brady are the exceptions, not the rule.

Correct, but when you see how Mahomes trains in Quarterback show and other features, there's no reason to think he can't play quite awhile. (Brady also trained hard... and began early after SB finished)

By any possible metric, pre-30 age Mahomes has been more 'elite level' in both stats and hardware than Brady.
I don't think it's fair to say one guy will decline soon just because the other lasted awhile. It'll happen when it happens.

Aaron Rodgers, for all his faults, is still better than some NFL starters at 41 years old. I don't think he trains or eats or has talent quite like like Mahomes and Brady do.

...but yeah, of course not every guy plays until Jerry Rice or Brady or LeBron or Vince Carter... Gordy Howe age.

[Onions]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Yea... That was the standard at the time (mid to late 30s).

Standard now with surgery/training/conditioning/nutrition is different. Doubly so for elite guys. Maybe you've heard of LeBron?

Take that Lebron stuff to the basketball board, he won his last one in 2020 at 36. Not winning another either. Yeah, some of these guys can still play, but they can't win. I'm not even a Mahomes hater, but you have to be realistic.

[Onions]

QB's that won a SB after age 35:

Brady - 4
Elway - 2
Manning - 1
Unitas - 1

[Onepocketj]

I see the idiotic takes are still happening. Another day or two until these trolls are gone.

[Icollectstuff]

Originally Posted by Onions

QB's that won a SB after age 35:

Brady - 4
Elway - 2
Manning - 1
Unitas - 1

You forgot jim plunkett...

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

I see the idiotic takes are still happening. Another day or two until these trolls are gone.

Not trolling, genuinely curious…

Do you think any of the criticisms are valid?

[MyckKabongo]

I don't know who needs to hear this but..

* Mahomes and the Chiefs have had an incredible run. More SB appearances than playoff losses. Never lost in the playoffs earlier than OT of AFCCG. 3 rings and 5 Lamar Hunt trophies. Team of the decade locked up before we even made it halfway through the decade. Even if everything stopped there (it wont), that's a run rivaled by only a few other franchises.

* Mahomes and the Chiefs will be right back in it. Vegas knows it. We all know it. Sure, there's some loudmouths wishcasting the end of the run. Said loudmouths have been saying the same things every ******* year. People like that aren't worth listening to.

* KC has the ignomious honor of having the two worst O-line meltdowns in Super Bowl history. It sucks. Perspective, though. This is the thing Chiefs fans have to bear. It happens. Brady lost his shot at a perfect season as a 12-point favorite (12 points!). He also lost to a backup QB when people had declared him GOAT. Peyton Manning lost a SB 43-8. Montana was perfect in the SB but had some early playoff exits and bad losses to NYG and BUF. It happens.

* That said, I can't complain as a Chiefs fan. Could be a Bills fan or Bengals fan. Could be a 9ers or Pats fan just hanging on to past glories, channeling their energy into being Chiefs haters because their teams are irrelevant. Could be any number of other fan bases but you know what? I am extremely content to be a Chiefs fan. Take all the shots you want. Everything you say is easily batted down by the lightest of brushes from a hand with 3 rings on it. And there's more to come. Believe that!

* Casuals and motivated Mahomes haters are trying their darnedest to pin this on Mahomes. Fact is, he's far down the list of who's to blame behind the O-line, Veach for not having a vet LT in camp and waiting way too late to sign one, coaches for bad game planning on protections and next to no in game adjustments, and receiver drops on would be 1st downs.

* If anything, Mahomes papers over serious issues on this team. The past two years, KC has had MAJOR issues at WR and O-line. It seriously impacted his stats. And yet, he carried his team with clutch performances galore through that mess to two SB appearances, a franchise record 15 wins and a ring. That's incredible. Look around the league. Teams with these types of issues usually fall out of the playoffs entirely (e.g. just this year: SF, CIN) and no one really blames the QB. Mahomes has carried this team to the AFCCG every single year despite straight up bad defenses early in the run and the more recent OL and WR debacle. Stats be damned, that's massively impressive.

* Reasons for optimism abound. This is a dynastic league where success begets more success. Betting against Mahomes in the long run is a fool's errand. Even his haters have to acknowledge he's already at 29 in rarified air on the all time QB list. All of his peers on that list had plenty of success in their 30s and thrived through coaching, personnel and even team changes. The OL is a problem and KC won't have a ton of cap this offseason but WR is finally on the right track and the defense will only need a few light touch ups.

* KC has been here before. It was only four years ago in fact. The same haters and loudmouths were dancing on their graves. "They might never win another SB!" "He's Wilson/Rodgers/Favre!" "His contract will ruin them!" Etc. Etc. Etc. Myself and other Mahomies were clairvoyant voices of reason. Others not so much. For real, take a roll back through the history of this thread. Who was right and who was wrong. My friends, the more things change the more they stay the same.

* Final note: congrats to the Eagles and their fans.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by Onions

These are probably not the comps you want as a Mahomes fan going forward.

Edit, not probably, definitely.

As mentioned in my post, I was quite baffled by those comparisons as well.

I honestly thought he was trying to tell us Mahomes has only 3 or 4 years left.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by slyguy

Yea... That was the standard at the time (mid to late 30s).

Standard now with surgery/training/conditioning/nutrition is different. Doubly so for elite guys. Maybe you've heard of LeBron?

“If you have to go outside of football to make a comparison for why a NFL QB will have a long career, you have a very weak argument.” - George Washington

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

* Reasons for optimism abound. This is a dynastic league where success begets more success.

Not true. In the NFL, having success makes it harder to continue. That’s why what NE and what KC have done is so impressive.

When you are successful, you draft low. In the NFL that’s a real big deal. You inevitably lose talented players to other teams who overpay for champions. You also lose coaches to other teams because they’ve done so well.

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

* KC has been here before. It was only four years ago in fact.

Mahomes is 2 games away from age 30 and Kelce has one foot out the door.

You’ve never been there before.

[jjrpilot]

I've got a nice Patty arriving today!

So it hit me...the trolls in here hate Mahomes bc they know he IS good. They wouldn't hate Mahomes if he was horrible bc then only the Chiefs fans would hate him. (He also wouldn't have his own thread.)

The trolls then say "Well we hate Mahomes bc you all think he's the best."

Fine you can think that but don't hate us when we look at the QBs you like and chuckle when you try to compare them to Mahomes (outside of Brady.)

The Chiefs and Mahomes definitely have work to do in the offseason. Mahomes said something in his interview after the game that hit me.

He mentioned that he had work to do...that when defenses send him different looks etc that he has to be better prepared to know what to do.

THIS is where he has to improve. Brady in my opinion was much more of a cerebral player. Mahomes typically tends to rely on sheer skill which works most of the time....but when the skill lining up against you is better....that's where he has to play smarter.

I think Mahomes will definitely get there. I think had he won (which still would have been amazing) it would reinforce that maybe he doesn't need to work as hard. I think he'll grow from this.

[MyckKabongo]

It is a dynastic league. 25 years and how many AFCG were won by Brady/Mahomes/Manning/Roethlisberger? How many rings just by those 4? Even in the salary cap era, the best QBs and coaches with the most Playoff/SB experience take a majority of the spoils.

I am so completely unfazed whenever you guys do the whole "Mahomes is turning 30, he's falling off!" Message board guys tell me that Mahomes started to decline at 27 and it's going to accelerate rapidly. Data tells me that statistical ups and downs are normal and that top QBs are routinely performing at near-peak levels into their very late 30s and sometimes their 40s. Yes, even mobile ones like Rodgers and Elway.

TBH, love the heck out of Kelce and Reid, but I'm not particularly fazed either when folks try to concern troll me about their departures. We literally saw the 2 most decorated QBs of the prior generation maintain success after losing HOF receivers and teaming up with thoroughly average head coaches. We've got 2 WRs primed to breakout as superstars. We'll have our pick of the league when it comes time to replace Reid.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Not trolling, genuinely curious…

Do you think any of the criticisms are valid?

Of course they are. Eagles were the better team this week. That was obvious. But there are obviously so many trolls that were praying for this loss so they could run to this thread and gloat. That's fine but they're not worth acknowledging at this point.

And then you get statements like "Right now, after year 7 (as a starter), it is undisputedly on a seriously downward trajectory." Keep in mind, this individual is talking about a QB running a team that was 15-1 and had the best record in the NFL this year. But trolls gonna troll.

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

It is a dynastic league. 25 years and how many AFCG were won by Brady/Mahomes/Manning/Roethlisberger? How many rings just by those 4? Even in the salary cap era, the best QBs and coaches with the most Playoff/SB experience take a majority of the spoils.

I am so completely unfazed whenever you guys do the whole "Mahomes is turning 30, he's falling off!" Message board guys tell me that Mahomes started to decline at 27 and it's going to accelerate rapidly. Data tells me that statistical ups and downs are normal and that top QBs are routinely performing at near-peak levels into their very late 30s and sometimes their 40s. Yes, even mobile ones like Rodgers and Elway.

TBH, love the heck out of Kelce and Reid, but I'm not particularly fazed either when folks try to concern troll me about their departures. We literally saw the 2 most decorated QBs of the prior generation maintain success after losing HOF receivers and teaming up with thoroughly average head coaches. We've got 2 WRs primed to breakout as superstars. We'll have our pick of the league when it comes time to replace Reid.

Don't forget, it was over for Mahomes when Tyreek left. Chiefs would never win again...

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

It is a dynastic league. 25 years and how many AFCG were won by Brady/Mahomes/Manning/Roethlisberger? How many rings just by those 4? Even in the salary cap era, the best QBs and coaches with the most Playoff/SB experience take a majority of the spoils.

Neither Manning nor Roethlisberger are considered a "dynasty".

Even if we consider the Patriots and the Chiefs a dynasty - which they each are - those 2 teams have still combined to win on 9 of the past 24 Super Bowls. There have been 10 one-and-dones in that same period of time (NOTE: some of the one-and-dones are the same franchise but an entirely different team. For example, the '02 Bucs and '20 Bucs are each considered a one-and-done since they are entirely different teams).

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

Data tells me that statistical ups and downs are normal and that top QBs are routinely performing at near-peak levels into their very late 30s and sometimes their 40s. Yes, even mobile ones like Rodgers and Elway.

Mobile QBs being better in their 30's than in their 20's is not normal. It does happen, but it is not the norm.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

Neither Manning nor Roethlisberger are considered a "dynasty".

Even if we consider the Patriots and the Chiefs a dynasty - which they each are - those 2 teams have still combined to win on 9 of the past 24 Super Bowls. There have been 10 one-and-dones in that same period of time (NOTE: some of the one-and-dones are the same franchise but an entirely different team. For example, the '02 Bucs and '20 Bucs are each considered a one-and-done since they are entirely different teams).
Mobile QBs being better in their 30's than in their 20's is not normal. It does happen, but it is not the norm.

For all the talk of Brady and Rogers and even Lebron its also a lot of luck more so in football than basketball. Sure Mahomes may be able to play until he's 40, he may also start getting injuries. Peyton got another sb, but he was a shell of himself by then.

[Fenway55]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

And then you get statements like "Right now, after year 7 (as a starter), it is undisputedly on a seriously downward trajectory." Keep in mind, this individual is talking about a QB running a team that was 15-1 and had the best record in the NFL this year. But trolls gonna troll.

I know facts can sometimes be darned inconvenient things, but I have steadfastly stated the following:

1) No intelligent person can deny that Mahomes is on a downward trajectory statistically over the past 2 years.

2) His stats were so great his first 5 years that his "downward trajectory" still makes him one of the best in the League.

3) Downward trajectories can certainly be reversed. But right here, right now, February 2025, no intelligent person can deny that Mahomes is on a downward trajectory statistically over the past 2 years.

It is hilarious how upset some people get over the above statements of fact. They get absolutely outraged at anyone who dares say Mahomes is "only" a top-5 QB in the League. Anyone who doesn't state that Mahomes is, was and always will be the best of the best is labelled a "hater".

Originally Posted by JRX

For all the talk of Brady and Rogers and even Lebron its also a lot of luck more so in football than basketball. Sure Mahomes may be able to play until he's 40, he may also start getting injuries. Peyton got another sb, but he was a shell of himself by then.

+1 +1 +1

[BostonNut]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

I don't know who needs to hear this but..

* Mahomes and the Chiefs have had an incredible run. More SB appearances than playoff losses. Never lost in the playoffs earlier than OT of AFCCG. 3 rings and 5 Lamar Hunt trophies. Team of the decade locked up before we even made it halfway through the decade. Even if everything stopped there (it wont), that's a run rivaled by only a few other franchises.

* Mahomes and the Chiefs will be right back in it. Vegas knows it. We all know it. Sure, there's some loudmouths wishcasting the end of the run. Said loudmouths have been saying the same things every ******* year. People like that aren't worth listening to.

* KC has the ignomious honor of having the two worst O-line meltdowns in Super Bowl history. It sucks. Perspective, though. This is the thing Chiefs fans have to bear. It happens. Brady lost his shot at a perfect season as a 12-point favorite (12 points!). He also lost to a backup QB when people had declared him GOAT. Peyton Manning lost a SB 43-8. Montana was perfect in the SB but had some early playoff exits and bad losses to NYG and BUF. It happens.

* That said, I can't complain as a Chiefs fan. Could be a Bills fan or Bengals fan. Could be a 9ers or Pats fan just hanging on to past glories, channeling their energy into being Chiefs haters because their teams are irrelevant. Could be any number of other fan bases but you know what? I am extremely content to be a Chiefs fan. Take all the shots you want. Everything you say is easily batted down by the lightest of brushes from a hand with 3 rings on it. And there's more to come. Believe that!

* Casuals and motivated Mahomes haters are trying their darnedest to pin this on Mahomes. Fact is, he's far down the list of who's to blame behind the O-line, Veach for not having a vet LT in camp and waiting way too late to sign one, coaches for bad game planning on protections and next to no in game adjustments, and receiver drops on would be 1st downs.

* If anything, Mahomes papers over serious issues on this team. The past two years, KC has had MAJOR issues at WR and O-line. It seriously impacted his stats. And yet, he carried his team with clutch performances galore through that mess to two SB appearances, a franchise record 15 wins and a ring. That's incredible. Look around the league. Teams with these types of issues usually fall out of the playoffs entirely (e.g. just this year: SF, CIN) and no one really blames the QB. Mahomes has carried this team to the AFCCG every single year despite straight up bad defenses early in the run and the more recent OL and WR debacle. Stats be damned, that's massively impressive.

* Reasons for optimism abound. This is a dynastic league where success begets more success. Betting against Mahomes in the long run is a fool's errand. Even his haters have to acknowledge he's already at 29 in rarified air on the all time QB list. All of his peers on that list had plenty of success in their 30s and thrived through coaching, personnel and even team changes. The OL is a problem and KC won't have a ton of cap this offseason but WR is finally on the right track and the defense will only need a few light touch ups.

* KC has been here before. It was only four years ago in fact. The same haters and loudmouths were dancing on their graves. "They might never win another SB!" "He's Wilson/Rodgers/Favre!" "His contract will ruin them!" Etc. Etc. Etc. Myself and other Mahomies were clairvoyant voices of reason. Others not so much. For real, take a roll back through the history of this thread. Who was right and who was wrong. My friends, the more things change the more they stay the same.

* Final note: congrats to the Eagles and their fans.

Not sure if it was before your time or not but you should Google what the Giants NASCAR front did to the Patriots otherwise dominant o-line in Superb Owl 42.

[JRX]

The bigger question for the Chiefs is how long do Reid and Spags want to keep going? Both are 66 and could go another 5+ years if they want.

[kipgen]

I don't buy the o-line excuse. Look at any o-line ranking for 2024 and you'll see the chiefs land around the five spot. There were plenty of times that Mahomes tried to do his usual run around the backfield strategy and it didn't work.

[Yanks23]

Originally Posted by JRX

The bigger question for the Chiefs is how long do Reid and Spags want to keep going? Both are 66 and could go another 5+ years if they want.

I also have wondered in today NFL with QB getting so much more $$ than before will QBs want to play until 40's if I made $500M already. I guess if Mahomes is still healthy in late 30's and chasing Brady he would continue but given he would have made well over $500M by then why risk the long term health.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

I know facts can sometimes be darned inconvenient things, but I have steadfastly stated the following:

1) No intelligent person can deny that Mahomes is on a downward trajectory statistically over the past 2 years.

2) His stats were so great his first 5 years that his "downward trajectory" still makes him one of the best in the League.

3) Downward trajectories can certainly be reversed. But right here, right now, February 2025, no intelligent person can deny that Mahomes is on a downward trajectory statistically over the past 2 years.

It is hilarious how upset some people get over the above statements of fact. They get absolutely outraged at anyone who dares say Mahomes is "only" a top-5 QB in the League. Anyone who doesn't state that Mahomes is, was and always will be the best of the best is labelled a "hater".

+1 +1 +1

It's all about the Benjamins, baby!

Root reason is money, specifically, card valuation.

Anger => Decrease in value
Happy = > Increase in value