What to do with huge Shai Gilgeous-Alexander collection

[crdbored]

Sell enough to cover your buy-in so you'd be close to "free rolling."

Keep the rarer stuff you like for your PC that you know you won't be able to buy again.

[Nomad]

So basically, you are saying hold on to key assets that you can, while riding the appreciation wave with stuff that will always be there, and thus is short term overpriced (but would long term hold value with inflation). Over the long term, the value of the true rarities will only accrue, as investors spend $3k on a box hoping to hit a Shai Orange to /49.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I feel like a lot of people are giving 'life advice' and I'd like to stick to 'card market' advice.

If you are looking at selling in the short term, then MVP and at least a partial Finals run are baked in to price. It probably makes sense to sell all or part of the collection.

If you are looking at long term, you have to ask yourself if you think he's a generational player or not. If no, then now is the time to sell. If yes, then there is further upside there and if you are right it's better to hold.


A lot of people dumped Patrick Mahomes cards after his first Super Bowl because they thought he had peaked. I'm much better off because they did.

On the other hand, I dumped Ben Simmons cards (to buy Mahomes) at his peak. I'm much better off because I did.

Shai is not generational

He is a great scorer and thats about it

Jokic is generational

[Nomad]

Yeah, but the era collector would want nice examples of both.

[BigAl83]

Appreciate all the great advise i have read so far, exceeded all my expectations.

Some of the lower end stuff is easier to part with, and include graded Base rookies that didn't move up to much anyway.
Will start of with that and see how thay goes.

The toughest thing is that no-one can predict the future. And is Shai a generational talent, i don't know, but in all honesty i doubt he will change the game like for instance Curry did.
On the other hand, his knack to get better and work ethic are almost unmatched in the NBA. I think that was one of the things that the late Jerry West made him remind SGA of Kobe while he was with Clippers when they drafted him.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Yeah, but the era collector would want nice examples of both.

his rookie cards are in a clippers uniform

panini didn't even put the rc logo on his prizm rc

he plays for the thunder

this ones a no brainer

[Nomad]

Clippers fan base + OKC fan base = compound value. After all, pile-on fans of greats don't care about the team jersey particular.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by BigAl83

Appreciate all the great advise i have read so far, exceeded all my expectations.

Some of the lower end stuff is easier to part with, and include graded Base rookies that didn't move up to much anyway.
Will start of with that and see how thay goes.

The toughest thing is that no-one can predict the future. And is Shai a generational talent, i don't know, but in all honesty i doubt he will change the game like for instance Curry did.
On the other hand, his knack to get better and work ethic are almost unmatched in the NBA. I think that was one of the things that the late Jerry West made him remind SGA of Kobe while he was with Clippers when they drafted him.

Before you sell any of it, I'd like to see it if you could post it here

That thread of all the rookie jokic is one of the best threads on here

[volblorx8634]

Originally Posted by Nomad

Clippers fan base + OKC fan base = compound value. After all, pile-on fans of greats don't care about the team jersey particular.

I feel like this should make sense, but isn't how it pans out. I feel like the trend is people like when a player stays with the team that they're pictured on in their rookies.

[Nomad]

This seems like a dumbing down process that is inevitable when you have a ton of newcomers in a short time. Time to educate collectors on the timeless element of player collections.

If anything, I give higher props to the player traded on their rookie year contract, who found a way to help build a strong team from the ground up. How was OKC doing when Shai arrived?

This was my litmus test when deciding whether to get back into Nesmith collecting after nearly a year's hiatus. When I saw significant progress with the Pacers, I was back on board, but I did miss the '21-22 and most of the '22-23 issues when they actually came out. Which is key when aiming for raw good condition.

OP doesn't mention this, but if he was buying Shai as early as rookie year and hasn't actively graded, this is one huge intangible if honorably selling as a package and aiming for a market+ premium.

Or is this considered fetch?

Had to look up "lucky endorsements," that insert was gone by 20-21. It's pretty sick in the available Cam Johnson /7.



It is Instant, which to be consistent with how I rank my Nesmiff/Pritchard RC dual sign 1/1 Instant (sticker), places it around 7th to 9th out of 9 one of ones in the player collection. (Seven if we are factoring the uniqueness of the piece with two future greats). In what context do you mean "true" with the card? Like there is only one 1/1? Or is it a "true" rookie with the shield, though most collectors do not consider Instant an official rookie set?

[boxbuster7]

I do think there is some merit to players not wearing the same uniform in their rookie cards they currently wear

[gomiamigo]

Sell most of it right before the playoffs start.

[Jwax13]

I would love to see the NT RPAs. OKC resident and fan. I moved my cracked ice auto a tad early, but that’s the game.

[ninjacookies]

MVP's already priced in....championship isn't (at least not fully).

I'd say sell most of the common and mid end stuff now just to secure some profit.

He's 26 and will be coming off his first mvp. Looking like he's going to become a perennial leader for the scoring title and most likely be in top 5 mvp discussions for the foreseeable future.

OKC also has a damned good team. I'd say keep a few as there doesn't look like too much downside at this point. And it's not like his cards underwent a massive unsustainable value surge during a pandemic outlier. There's most likely going to be an elevated floor for his good stuff as he's obviously a 1a tier player much better than guys like Booker or even Ant.

Grats on your new Bayliner.

[jimmysbutler]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

I think Shai’s prices pretty much have the MVP assumed and baked in. There will definitely be a speculative run up as the Thunder goes through the playoffs (barring an unexpected early exit) and obviously a championship would provide a nice little bump, but a championship is going to be tough sledding. Even though I think the Thunder will emerge from the West, the West contenders are improving so even that is no guarantee. If they do emerge, they are likely to face an extremely difficult opponent in the Cavs or Celtics. If you are looking to flip, I certainly wouldn’t bet the farm on a championship. It’s probably a better idea to sell while the speculative juice is still flowing unless you really want to risk disappointment.

I’m a medium to long term holder that sells and upgrades my PC regularly to maximize both value and hobby enjoyment and I think Shai is a great guy to hold SOME of, but I would strongly advise against holding a large amount of cards in virtually any active player that doesn’t have his legacy cemented. Even then, there’s scandals etc. that can wipe out years of stellar performance.

Also, as some have recommended: definitely put family FIRST and everything else after.

IF you don’t need all the proceeds, maybe cash in on the majority of Shai while the sun is shining and put the proceeds towards your house/family, reward yourself and your good fortune with some cool cards of other players for your PC with some of the profits and hold just a few for good measure?

I’ve sold well over half my cards to fund family/house/real life stuff because those dollars you will never regret spending. Cards are fun and I’m trying to create a decent little collection, but in the end I’m going to sell it piece by piece and it’s all going to the fam.

I think many try to guilt those who make profit off selling cards, flippers or otherwise, but there’s no shame in selling to fund real life, even for the truest of collectors.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

As the core of OP's question is timing, I seriously hope that this line of discussion right here gets more attention because it is truly an important point about the hobby (I am too freshly back in to know if there is a consensus). That point being, is the card market an efficient market? Oversimplification: when a publicly traded company announces good news, the increased price of the stock already contains the future gains of that good news.

The card market to me seems inefficient (for many reasons, particularly the liquidity of physical objects). In the case of Shai, I wonder if the hype is so big right now that his current prices are actually greater than an efficient market might ascribe. If that were true (and I'm not sure) then I agree that only a championship would provide extra gains. (Basically what ninjacookies said above me).

I am curious about what people think about current prices and how they reflect future benchmarks (MVP, playoff runs, retirement, HOF induction, etc.).

I think there have been many cooks in this kitchen regarding the second part of OP's question that seems more to do with the personal psychology of money and gauging your own thresholds of peace of mind (e.g., some people are obsessed with life insurance while others find it to make no sense).

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by jimmysbutler

As the core of OP's question is timing, I seriously hope that this line of discussion right here gets more attention because it is truly an important point about the hobby (I am too freshly back in to know if there is a consensus). That point being, is the card market an efficient market? Oversimplification: when a publicly traded company announces good news, the increased price of the stock already contains the future gains of that good news.

The card market to me seems inefficient (for many reasons, particularly the liquidity of physical objects). In the case of Shai, I wonder if the hype is so big right now that his current prices are actually greater than an efficient market might ascribe. If that were true (and I'm not sure) then I agree that only a championship would provide extra gains. (Basically what ninjacookies said above me).

I am curious about what people think about current prices and how they reflect future benchmarks (MVP, playoff runs, retirement, HOF induction, etc.).

I think there have been many cooks in this kitchen regarding the second part of OP's question that seems more to do with the personal psychology of money and gauging your own thresholds of peace of mind (e.g., some people are obsessed with life insurance while others find it to make no sense).

To address this line and also agree with your second paragraph, it's difficult to know what will move prices and what won't. I'll use two examples from the football world.

This year, Michael Penix Jr. was drafted to replace Kirk Cousins for Atlanta while Kirk acted as the interim QB that would eventually be replaced by Penix. Everyone knew that was what Atlanta was planning on doing when they drafted him. However, Penix's prices stayed well below every other QB that had played (basically right in line with JJ McCarthy who was injured the entire year) until it was announced late in the season that he was going to be starting instead of Kirk. This caused his prices to rise, even before he had played his first game. Was this start priced into his cards, even though we all knew that Penix was going to be starting ahead of Kirk eventually? No, everybody reacted to it by prices going up even though we all had that information ahead of time.

Another example from the football world in which something you would expect to move prices didn't or in fact lead to price decline: after Mahomes won his back to back super bowl last year against the 49ers, you would expect his prices to go up because super bowl win = good and good = prices go up. Instead, prices stayed the same or went down because people started selling him off in anticipation of a price spike from him winning that super bowl.

So I say this: personal achievements and historic, sportwide achievements (and being a part of them) are what drive prices for players. You can get one MVP and it will drive your prices up, back to back MVPs, probably not. You can win one ring, winning your third ring, probably not. Being the first or the only one to do something? That has value.

Another factor is exposure and visibility. This one is also big because people need to be reminded that you exist which in turn drives your demand. That's why hall of fame inductions, playoff runs for young players, and retirements are big. People are reminded you exist, that they liked you as a player, that can drive demand as well.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Shai is not generational

He is a great scorer and thats about it

Jokic is generational

I didn't say he was. But I'm not the one with $100k in SGA cards.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

MVP's already priced in....championship isn't (at least not fully).

I'd say sell most of the common and mid end stuff now just to secure some profit.

He's 26 and will be coming off his first mvp. Looking like he's going to become a perennial leader for the scoring title and most likely be in top 5 mvp discussions for the foreseeable future.

OKC also has a damned good team. I'd say keep a few as there doesn't look like too much downside at this point. And it's not like his cards underwent a massive unsustainable value surge during a pandemic outlier. There's most likely going to be an elevated floor for his good stuff as he's obviously a 1a tier player much better than guys like Booker or even Ant.

Grats on your new Bayliner.

While in this instance, I would sell the vast majority, but this is simply because I don’t go in too strong on any one player. There’s a whole lot worse people to be holding cards of. Some in this thread are acting very dismissive of SGA as if it’s this year or bust as if what he’s doing is unsustainable. I question if they actually watch the man play.

What you said above is worth noting, Shai’s stuff didn’t just explode stupidly overnight like things did in the pandemic. He’s steadily gaining ground because he is dismantling teams and leading a talented young team with a passionate fan base to an extremely successful season and a likely MVP.

I’ve watched Shai a ton this year and he may be the closest thing to unstoppable as anyone in the NBA. He’s silky smooth with an insane mid range, cool head, and a knack for getting to the bucket (and the foul line). He’s consistent, always under control, and doesn’t rely on the 3 to do his damage.

Yes, sell a ton of it keep some good stuff as lottery tickets to hopefully cash in later and don’t look back. But I would apply this line of thought to any young player after a big run up that I stood to gain massive profits from, not because SGA doesn’t have the goods.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ninjacookies]

Another thing people have to factor in is...the changing of the guard is upon us. A group of players inevitably has to carry the next wave of hobby usdt.

Right now you have:

Yoker
- generational, but also a center with a polarizing hobby perception due to his playstyle
- most decorated of anyone on this list
- prices aided by the limited nature and lack of quality autos his rookie year
- no real push by NBA to be face of the league...perhaps due to bland, pony herding swag
- will most likely be the GOAT mvp merchant of anyone on this list by the time he retires

Yannis
-obviously the most decorated of everyone not named Yoker in this under 30 age group
-most dominant 2 way player on the list
-injuries have started to become a bit of a concern

Lulu
-super heavy and somewhat unrealistic expectations baked into his prices
- was a buy high early candidate unlike the others on this list
- prices have pulled back but shot back up again after the trade
- will most likely be the only player on this list without an MVP or ring after this season. also)
- weight/injury concerns a media narrative (justified or not)

SGA
-leading a top 2 team in the league
- will have his first mvp...2 way player that's also top 5 in DPOY considerations
- but plays in OKC which will always put a slight damper on his prices relatively speaking)
- rookie cards in different uniform which isn't optimal but probably not as big a factor if he continues on this path
- not much media exposure until this year...unsure if that will continue

Tatum
- interesting case study...has had the most playoff success than his peers since he came in
- buy high candidate early...prices have pulled back from those peaks despite the fact he's now a champion
- has not been in legitimate discussions for being an mvp winner
- for some reason seems to get overlooked in current discussions and has much less interest outside of Boston than I'd expect
- very good 2 way player but doesn't dominate any statistical category

===============================

Everyone else

(whose prices will also have to contend against the hyper saturated printing era we're currently in)




It's very possible we run into a similar situation that exists in futbol with Patty and the 'others,' but we're so far removed from a Patty existing on the NBA side of things...at least presently. So the money will have to flow somewhere.

Place your bets.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

While in this instance, I would sell the vast majority, but this is simply because I don’t go in too strong on any one player. There’s a whole lot worse people to be holding cards of. Some in this thread are acting very dismissive of SGA as if it’s this year or bust as if what he’s doing is unsustainable. I question if they actually watch the man play.

What you said above is worth noting, Shai’s stuff didn’t just explode stupidly overnight like things did in the pandemic. He’s steadily gaining ground because he is dismantling teams and leading a talented young team with a passionate fan base to an extremely successful season and a likely MVP.

I’ve watched Shai a ton this year and he may be the closest thing to unstoppable as anyone in the NBA. He’s silky smooth with an insane mid range, cool head, and a knack for getting to the bucket (and the foul line). He’s consistent, always under control, and doesn’t rely on the 3 to do his damage.

Yes, sell a ton of it keep some good stuff as lottery tickets to hopefully cash in later and don’t look back. But I would apply this line of thought to any young player after a big run up that I stood to gain massive profits from, not because SGA doesn’t have the goods.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Wise words. I agree that selling off a portion now to secure some profit is never a bad thing. In sports you want to remain slightly risk averse with younger players as anything is possible from natural regression to injuries.

A lot of that is also predicated on your buy-in entry. Seems like Opie got in fairly early so he's comfy regardless, but I would lock in some money now and keep a few good cards in case the prophecy materializes in the slight chance OKC becomes a dynasty.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Another thing people have to factor in is...the changing of the guard is upon us. A group of players inevitably has to carry the next wave of hobby usdt.

Right now you have:

Yoker
- generational, but also a center with a polarizing hobby perception due to his playstyle
- most decorated of anyone on this list
- prices aided by the limited nature and lack of quality autos his rookie year
- no real push by NBA to be face of the league...perhaps due to bland, pony herding swag
- will most likely be the GOAT mvp merchant of anyone on this list by the time he retires

Yannis
-obviously the most decorated of everyone not named Yoker in this under 30 age group
-most dominant 2 way player on the list
-injuries have started to become a bit of a concern

Lulu
-super heavy and somewhat unrealistic expectations baked into his prices
- was a buy high early candidate unlike the others on this list
- prices have pulled back but shot back up again after the trade
- will most likely be the only player on this list without an MVP or ring after this season. also)
- weight/injury concerns a media narrative (justified or not)

SGA
-leading a top 2 team in the league
- will have his first mvp...2 way player that's also top 5 in DPOY considerations
- but plays in OKC which will always put a slight damper on his prices relatively speaking)
- rookie cards in different uniform which isn't optimal but probably not as big a factor if he continues on this path
- not much media exposure until this year...unsure if that will continue

Tatum
- interesting case study...has had the most playoff success than his peers since he came in
- buy high candidate early...prices have pulled back from those peaks despite the fact he's now a champion
- has not been in legitimate discussions for being an mvp winner
- for some reason seems to get overlooked in current discussions and has much less interest outside of Boston than I'd expect
- very good 2 way player but doesn't dominate any statistical category

===============================

Everyone else

(whose prices will also have to contend against the hyper saturated printing era we're currently in)




It's very possible we run into a similar situation that exists in futbol with Patty and the 'others,' but we're so far removed from a Patty existing on the NBA side of things...at least presently. So the money will have to flow somewhere.

Place your bets.

Other option: These guys all just horse trade championships and the hobby's next #1 guy isn't even on this list.

Jokic has 3 MVPs and a Championship and it's never happened.

Luka has the best path, but also the most risk: Prices are sky high and if he doesn't win titles in LA quickly, the world will start to turn on him. The lights shine brighter here.

Tatum could get a 2nd title (and maybe win FMVP this time) and hype would start for a 3 peat try.

SGA is more of a wild card, but he seems to be following the Giannis path more than anything (in terms of name recognition).


And this goes back to a convo I had today with a work associate: He asked me "Doesn't losing in the Super Bowl kill Mahomes' market because he falls behind in the GOAT category". To put in succinctly, I said "Not really, because he still got to the SB and is the biggest name in the sport. It's not about being the GOAT, it's about being the household name megastar".

And the example I used is Kobe. Nobody who knows a damn thing about basketball talks about Kobe as the all time GOAT. Yet I'd bet he's one of the 5 most recognizable names in NBA history to the general public. So the question is: Can SGA, Luka, Tatum, Jokic, or Giannis match at least top 15 all time success with being the biggest name in the NBA?

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Other option: These guys all just horse trade championships and the hobby's next #1 guy isn't even on this list.

Jokic has 3 MVPs and a Championship and it's never happened.

Luka has the best path, but also the most risk: Prices are sky high and if he doesn't win titles in LA quickly, the world will start to turn on him. The lights shine brighter here.

Tatum could get a 2nd title (and maybe win FMVP this time) and hype would start for a 3 peat try.

SGA is more of a wild card, but he seems to be following the Giannis path more than anything (in terms of name recognition).


And this goes back to a convo I had today with a work associate: He asked me "Doesn't losing in the Super Bowl kill Mahomes' market because he falls behind in the GOAT category". To put in succinctly, I said "Not really, because he still got to the SB and is the biggest name in the sport. It's not about being the GOAT, it's about being the household name megastar".

And the example I used is Kobe. Nobody who knows a damn thing about basketball talks about Kobe as the all time GOAT. Yet I'd bet he's one of the 5 most recognizable names in NBA history to the general public. So the question is: Can SGA, Luka, Tatum, Jokic, or Giannis match at least top 15 all time success with being the biggest name in the NBA?

That's where the basketball market is so up in the air right now. It's nowhere close to where the fb landscape is. Mahomes has built himself such a gap in terms of accomplishments and public perception (indestructible clutch gene) that it's nearly impossible for anyone from this current crop of players to give him a run. And though he got decimated by Philly...like...he's only in competition with Brady's corpse at this point. I do think Mahomes will always be the Bron to Brady's Jordan regardless how the rest of his career progresses. That's just my opinion though.


While Yoker is a generational talent...he also plays the least hobby friendly position and has a generally bland personality that isn't great for ambassador marketing.

What charisma Ant does have, it's negated by his lack of consistency, Terminator 2 pregnancy theatrics, and general off the court antics.

Feels like the NBA has a huge predicament because once Bron hangs it up, they really have nobody to push as that alpha spokesman with the hardware to back.



But the money does have to flow somewhere, and it's not all going into the near term retirees or HOFers. Your guess is as good as mine who's going to take the lions share. Because each candidate seems to have as many pros as they do cons.

[Jwax13]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Shai is not generational

He is a great scorer and thats about it

Jokic is generational

He’s the leading scorer in the NBA and 4th in DPOY odds.

That’s about it.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

That's where the basketball market is so up in the air right now. It's nowhere close to where the fb landscape is. Mahomes has built himself such a gap in terms of accomplishments and public perception (indestructible clutch gene) that it's nearly impossible for anyone from this current crop of players to give him a run. And though he got decimated by Philly...like...he's only in competition with Brady's corpse at this point. I do think Mahomes will always be the Bron to Brady's Jordan regardless how the rest of his career progresses. That's just my opinion though.


While Yoker is a generational talent...he also plays the least hobby friendly position and has a generally bland personality that isn't great for ambassador marketing.

What charisma Ant does have, it's negated by his lack of consistency, Terminator 2 pregnancy theatrics, and general off the court antics.

Feels like the NBA has a huge predicament because once Bron hangs it up, they really have nobody to push as that alpha spokesman with the hardware to back.



But the money does have to flow somewhere, and it's not all going into the near term retirees or HOFers. Your guess is as good as mine who's going to take the lions share. Because each candidate seems to have as many pros as they do cons.

There hasn't been either a mercenary ring winner (Lebron) or a new dynasty leader (Curry) to really establish themselves yet

So far the discourse has not been kind to the one-and-done ring winners who get there once and then can't get back

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by kipgen

There hasn't been either a mercenary ring winner (Lebron) or a new dynasty leader (Curry) to really establish themselves yet

So far the discourse has not been kind to the one-and-done ring winners who get there once and then can't get back

Feels like it may remain that way for the foreseeable future, though Boston could open the discussion if they win again this year. Wonder if that'll do much to prop Tatum up where he probably belongs. It just feels as though him having a relatively tight skill gap with JB kind of holds him back in terms of perception.