What to do with huge Shai Gilgeous-Alexander collection

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Feels like it may remain that way for the foreseeable future, though Boston could open the discussion if they win again this year. Wonder if that'll do much to prop Tatum up where he probably belongs. It just feels as though him having a relatively tight skill gap with JB kind of holds him back in terms of perception.

I don't think so

Whether it's that people think he's corny, that he's not definitively the number one on his team, or that he's not really in that upper echelon of players/regularly in MVP contention, people don't really like him that much

If the Celtics win more it'll probably do a lot for The Dynasty but not really for any one player individually

[Nomad]

I like how the conversation is devolving into realization that this is the year that some rising players will likely cement themselves in the public consciousness and none are necessarily on the current "big 5" list. If your horse is a third to sixth year starter on any of the top 5 teams in either league, with all levels of skill, you gotta feel invested in the next 30 games and playoffs.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by kipgen

I don't think so

Whether it's that people think he's corny, that he's not definitively the number one on his team, or that he's not really in that upper echelon of players/regularly in MVP contention, people don't really like him that much

If the Celtics win more it'll probably do a lot for The Dynasty but not really for any one player individually

My thoughts exactly. The narrative has been by committee with them. And now they have the 6moty. Absolutely loaded.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by kipgen

There hasn't been either a mercenary ring winner (Lebron) or a new dynasty leader (Curry) to really establish themselves yet

So far the discourse has not been kind to the one-and-done ring winners who get there once and then can't get back

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Feels like it may remain that way for the foreseeable future, though Boston could open the discussion if they win again this year. Wonder if that'll do much to prop Tatum up where he probably belongs. It just feels as though him having a relatively tight skill gap with JB kind of holds him back in terms of perception.

Wemby seemed like the next answer for this.

And I know he may lack some of the personality.... but he's a physical freak that could end up being must see TV and get to a level near where Shaq was.

But for now there's a bit of a question mark on him.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Wemby seemed like the next answer for this.

And I know he may lack some of the personality.... but he's a physical freak that could end up being must see TV and get to a level near where Shaq was.

But for now there's a bit of a question mark on him.

I think there's very little doubt he can and will be the greatest defensive player of this generation (if not ever) if he keeps his health in check. He's so ridiculously unfair on that end.

Offensively, I'm curious if a bit of viewer fatigue may set in medium to long term if he maintains a Porzingis+ outside-in playstyle.

Like...does the hobby still hold to traditional expectations of a center to do the majority of their domination from the inside? I don't even know.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I think there's very little doubt he can and will be the greatest defensive player of this generation (if not ever) if he keeps his health in check. He's so ridiculously unfair on that end.

Offensively, I'm curious if a bit of viewer fatigue may set in medium to long term if he maintains a Porzingis+ outside-in playstyle.

Like...does the hobby still hold to traditional expectations of a center to do the majority of their domination from the inside? I don't even know.

The bigger potential problem that exists for Wemby is that he may end up being a supporting player to a yet-to-be-determined primary ballhandler they draft later on (I don't believe in Fox as a long term option for them)

Jokic avoids that issue because he's an offensive hub and playmaker, but it doesn't seem like Wemby has that kind of versatility yet

For example, in a hypothetical world where the Spurs get Cooper Flagg this year and they want the ball in his hands every play dishing it out to Fox and Wemby as he sees fit... Wemby nebula holders won't like that

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by kipgen

The bigger potential problem that exists for Wemby is that he may end up being a supporting player to a yet-to-be-determined primary ballhandler they draft later on (I don't believe in Fox as a long term option for them)

Jokic avoids that issue because he's an offensive hub and playmaker, but it doesn't seem like Wemby has that kind of versatility yet

For example, in a hypothetical world where the Spurs get Cooper Flagg this year and they want the ball in his hands every play dishing it out to Fox and Wemby as he sees fit... Wemby nebula holders won't like that

IIRC the overly optimistic pre-draft projection for Wemby was Durant 2.0 with a hyperactive thyroid. And Durant has never been the greatest distributor, though he was a master at creating his own offense.

But like you said, it seems the public is now so laser focused on current generation goats fitting an all-in-one mold with nightly PRA 3d's. Guess we can thank Yoker for setting the precedent, though Westbrook and Harden were the ones that brought the concept to a mainstream level last decade.

[BigAl83]

https://www.beckett.com/news/shai-gi...l-with-panini/

There is one other thing that i forgot to mention, and creates another question mark.

SGA signed an exclusive deal with Panini last summer, meaning that come next fall when the license switches to Topps/Fanatics, we probably won't see any new NBA autograph cards from SGA. It just doesn't say anything about how long the exclusive deal will last.

It does perhaps help make his NBA cards more scarce on the market come next year?

[BigAl83]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Before you sell any of it, I'd like to see it if you could post it here

That thread of all the rookie jokic is one of the best threads on here

I vaguely remember seeing that, but can't seem to find it in the search results. If you happen to have the link, can you please share it again?

I will try and share some of the top cards i have. Some of them i have at home, and some are still in my comc account (i'm located overseas and kept some there to get graded).

















Had the BGS 9 NT RPA first, then upgraded later on to the 9.5, but never gotten around to selling the 9 ;-)

The encased 9.5 is the only one in the product that SGA for some reason decided to write an @shai inscription, making it more desirable and definitely more valuable than his other Encased cards.

Opulence silver RPA /79 and gold RPA 25/25, no real point in grading those because of the high PSA prices and at best these will get a PSA 9, but most likely lower.
The flawless gold /10 i picked up for $225, last sale was a BGS 9 for 9.5k early January, but nowadays you wonder if these are actual sales (hasn't been relisted though).

[BigAl83]

Originally Posted by Nomad

This seems like a dumbing down process that is inevitable when you have a ton of newcomers in a short time. Time to educate collectors on the timeless element of player collections.

If anything, I give higher props to the player traded on their rookie year contract, who found a way to help build a strong team from the ground up. How was OKC doing when Shai arrived?

This was my litmus test when deciding whether to get back into Nesmith collecting after nearly a year's hiatus. When I saw significant progress with the Pacers, I was back on board, but I did miss the '21-22 and most of the '22-23 issues when they actually came out. Which is key when aiming for raw good condition.

OP doesn't mention this, but if he was buying Shai as early as rookie year and hasn't actively graded, this is one huge intangible if honorably selling as a package and aiming for a market+ premium.

Or is this considered fetch?

Had to look up "lucky endorsements," that insert was gone by 20-21. It's pretty sick in the available Cam Johnson /7.



It is Instant, which to be consistent with how I rank my Nesmiff/Pritchard RC dual sign 1/1 Instant (sticker), places it around 7th to 9th out of 9 one of ones in the player collection. (Seven if we are factoring the uniqueness of the piece with two future greats). In what context do you mean "true" with the card? Like there is only one 1/1? Or is it a "true" rookie with the shield, though most collectors do not consider Instant an official rookie set?

I have send some of my cards to PSA through comc for grading. But mostly the mid-end cards like prizm silver, spectra, contenders optic, those type of cards.
Most of the RPA's like Noir, Opulence and Gold Standard weren't worthwhile to get graded because of condition issues.
I personally don't care to much to have everything graded in the highest possible grade, hence most of my graded cards are 9's.

I meant true rc in the sense of it being from his actual rookie card season and the only 1 of 1 variant of that card that exists to my knowledge. Though i realise that it being from Panini Instant and not from a pack pulled product, it has a different appeal to most collectors.
A lot of SGA's bigger rookie cards like Impeccable, Opulence, NT etc. have these 1 of 1 whitebox and blackbox cards. You see these pop up much more frequent, but i don't really consider them to be actual 1 of 1 rookie cards.

[Torro]

Start selling and sell most of them, maybe keep just some that you appreciate (not the most valuable and rare). I would definitely sell the high end stuff, its going for crazy money and I think its where most of the risk is (while many here will tell you to keep the high end), there is just too much "high end" stuff of Shai, unlikely to be scares and as valuable in the future, just too many /10 /5 and 1/1, people still pay crazy money for that stuff with expectations that its great investment (comparing to some other superstars from the past), but what most dont take into account is that in the past the high end stuff to /10 or 1/1 volume of these cards was 10 times or even 100 times less than now.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by BigAl83

I vaguely remember seeing that, but can't seem to find it in the search results. If you happen to have the link, can you please share it again?

I will try and share some of the top cards i have. Some of them i have at home, and some are still in my comc account (i'm located overseas and kept some there to get graded).

Had the BGS 9 NT RPA first, then upgraded later on to the 9.5, but never gotten around to selling the 9 ;-)

The encased 9.5 is the only one in the product that SGA for some reason decided to write an @shai inscription, making it more desirable and definitely more valuable than his other Encased cards.

Opulence silver RPA /79 and gold RPA 25/25, no real point in grading those because of the high PSA prices and at best these will get a PSA 9, but most likely lower.
The flawless gold /10 i picked up for $225, last sale was a BGS 9 for 9.5k early January, but nowadays you wonder if these are actual sales (hasn't been relisted though).

This is the one

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1246772

Nice collection, I'm trying to do something similar with my PC getting RPAs from all the big sets (NT, immaculate, impeccable, etc)

I have a /49 NT rpa for my PC player and I'm debating trying to trade up to a /99 but it's like a 2-2.5x increase in cost, so... tough to justify

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I think there's very little doubt he can and will be the greatest defensive player of this generation (if not ever) if he keeps his health in check. He's so ridiculously unfair on that end.

Offensively, I'm curious if a bit of viewer fatigue may set in medium to long term if he maintains a Porzingis+ outside-in playstyle.

Like...does the hobby still hold to traditional expectations of a center to do the majority of their domination from the inside? I don't even know.

Originally Posted by kipgen

The bigger potential problem that exists for Wemby is that he may end up being a supporting player to a yet-to-be-determined primary ballhandler they draft later on (I don't believe in Fox as a long term option for them)

Jokic avoids that issue because he's an offensive hub and playmaker, but it doesn't seem like Wemby has that kind of versatility yet

For example, in a hypothetical world where the Spurs get Cooper Flagg this year and they want the ball in his hands every play dishing it out to Fox and Wemby as he sees fit... Wemby nebula holders won't like that

The way he becomes the guy is a playstyle similar to Giannis, but with an actual 3 point shot.

Bigs just typically take longer to develop offensively than other players, so that fact that he's done what he's done so far is amazing. He can develop more game, but other guys can't develop his height and wing span.

For whatever reason this year, only 20% of his shots are at the rim. But he's making those shots at 81%. By comparison, Giannis takes 55% of his shots at the rim and makes 76%. When Wemby eventually improves his bag enough to get to the rim more, he'll put up amazing efficiency numbers.

And it can happen. I heard something amazing a few night ago watching Cavs vs Grizzlies. Evan Mobley took JJJ from the 3 pt line to the rim with a crossover and Eurostep, and the TNT announcer said something about Mobley having a really deep bag. Nobody would have said that even 1 year ago about him... but he's developed in throughout the last year. If Wemby even gets there it'll be games full of highlight dunks.

[Kobefan]

Nice cards, I agree with most people here that you should sell the smaller value stuff first, at least till you break even, afterwards, you can reevaluate whether you want to keep the rest, cause those remaining higher end cards have some chance of becoming unaffordable in the future, while you can always buy back the lower stuff.

Btw, I have a smaller Shai collection and was pondering a similar question, but for a different reason, is it ok for me to post here, or should I make a new post? I'd figured I don't want to clutter up the forum with too many posts for something similar.

[BigAl83]

Originally Posted by Kobefan

Nice cards, I agree with most people here that you should sell the smaller value stuff first, at least till you break even, afterwards, you can reevaluate whether you want to keep the rest, cause those remaining higher end cards have some chance of becoming unaffordable in the future, while you can always buy back the lower stuff.

Btw, I have a smaller Shai collection and was pondering a similar question, but for a different reason, is it ok for me to post here, or should I make a new post? I'd figured I don't want to clutter up the forum with too many posts for something similar.

Sure man, just post here. Perhaps it might also be interesting info for me

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by BigAl83

https://www.beckett.com/news/shai-gi...l-with-panini/

There is one other thing that i forgot to mention, and creates another question mark.

SGA signed an exclusive deal with Panini last summer, meaning that come next fall when the license switches to Topps/Fanatics, we probably won't see any new NBA autograph cards from SGA. It just doesn't say anything about how long the exclusive deal will last.

It does perhaps help make his NBA cards more scarce on the market come next year?

I think the Thunder have the most first rounds picks over the next 5-6 years...... he is young, the core is young, they seem to draft really well, there is zero reason to sell. All NBA type guys RC stuff creeps up each passing year they play so I see no risk (other than injury).... and if they happen to rip off a couple chips in a row you stand to make massive gains

[cms11]

Originally Posted by BigAl83

Got this (in my opinion) huge SGA collection that I'm kind of contemplating on what to do with.

Lots of lower end rookie autos, but also rpa's (like impeccable and opulence), Prizm silvers PSA 10 etc. Got some higher-end cards like his NT RPA /99 BGS 9 and a BGS 9.5, Flawless gold rc auto /10, Opulence rookie Tag Booklet /5 and a true 1/1 lucky endorsements rookie auto.

This is not meant as a flex, I'm really seeking some honest opinions of what others would do with a collection that's well over 100k. That's a lot of money to me, and i never would have thought or expected any of my collection would be worth this much. Most of my SGA stuff i bought in 2019-2021 when his stuff was still affordable.
SGA looks like a shoo-in for MVP this year, and his prices have soared for the last couple of weeks.

Would you sell when he wins MVP, or wait until a deep playoff run or even a possible Finals ticket? Or should i consider keeping it long-term considering OKC has such a young core and all the draft pick assets to further improve the roster?
I'm really torn on what to do, because as a collector i really love all of the cards i have of him, but on the other hand i also have/had a huge Bradley Beal collection that's nowhere near the value it once was. I don't want to be left holding the bag once again. I'm not that wealthy, and at some point it would be wiser to put it towards mortgage payment or stuff like that, to provide for my family.

Yes I'm asking for advice on when would be the best time to flip my collection, but this is coming from someone who is truly in this hobby for the collecting aspect and not solely in it for flipping!

Piece it out now, starting with the lower value cards. You'll at least lock in a profit regardless of what happens.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The way he becomes the guy is a playstyle similar to Giannis, but with an actual 3 point shot.

Bigs just typically take longer to develop offensively than other players, so that fact that he's done what he's done so far is amazing. He can develop more game, but other guys can't develop his height and wing span.

For whatever reason this year, only 20% of his shots are at the rim. But he's making those shots at 81%. By comparison, Giannis takes 55% of his shots at the rim and makes 76%. When Wemby eventually improves his bag enough to get to the rim more, he'll put up amazing efficiency numbers.

And it can happen. I heard something amazing a few night ago watching Cavs vs Grizzlies. Evan Mobley took JJJ from the 3 pt line to the rim with a crossover and Eurostep, and the TNT announcer said something about Mobley having a really deep bag. Nobody would have said that even 1 year ago about him... but he's developed in throughout the last year. If Wemby even gets there it'll be games full of highlight dunks.

It's true a player can develop a deeper bag but Wemby's build compared to those other dudes gives me some pause

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOpBUDoaMaU

Giannis, JJJ, and Mobley are all essentially regular people but scaled up to giant size, whereas Wemby has a short torso, long arms, and really long legs

This leads to kind of a stickbug appearance where he struggles to be able to explode around people

You can see it in this clip vs Giannis where Giannis is able to stick in front of him and he can't really do much about it because his center of gravity just isn't really built to be able to have that kind of quick lateral agility that lets you easily get around people

It's the same thing even with shorter defenders like Alex Caruso or Dillon Brooks, if the defender can get in front of him and plant their feet he really has a tough time getting around them

That's not to say he can't develop his skills but it does limit his versatility compared to a person like Lebron (another example of normal proportions but giant person)

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by kipgen

It's true a player can develop a deeper bag but Wemby's build compared to those other dudes gives me some pause

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOpBUDoaMaU

Giannis, JJJ, and Mobley are all essentially regular people but scaled up to giant size, whereas Wemby has a short torso, long arms, and really long legs

This leads to kind of a stickbug appearance where he struggles to be able to explode around people

You can see it in this clip vs Giannis where Giannis is able to stick in front of him and he can't really do much about it because his center of gravity just isn't really built to be able to have that kind of quick lateral agility that lets you easily get around people

It's the same thing even with shorter defenders like Alex Caruso or Dillon Brooks, if the defender can get in front of him and plant their feet he really has a tough time getting around them

That's not to say he can't develop his skills but it does limit his versatility compared to a person like Lebron (another example of normal proportions but giant person)

That's what he's going to have to figure out.

I could put together a lowlight video of Mobley losing his dribble his first fear years that would make you cringe.

My first impression was that Giannis was going to be a joke because of the time in 2015 he got his shot blocked at the rim by a 34 year old Mike Miller.

If he starts developing Eurosteps and back to the basket shot making abilities, then look out because he could be elite on offense.

But the things you mentioned are the reasons why you cant just peg a guy top 5 all time until he's proven he can reach the top.

[Spacemanspif]

Back on topic: I have / had in a very similar situation, as I probably have / had one of the larger SGA collections out there. I think people giving the blanket statements of "sell the small stuff" or "sell the big stuff" probably lack the nuance of your collection and the SGA market in general.

I think while there have been some huge jumps in brands like NT / Flawless / Prizm / mid-range autos, there have been others that have been slower to catch on, and I think if you're not dumping everything at once, I would sell cards that have made huge jumps like those brands I mentioned where they have essentially doubled or tripled since the beginning of the season, and slowly roll out the other brands that have "only" experienced 25-50% growth. As buyers get priced out of the first options or the multiples become unsustainable, people will start looking at second or third options and they will start to climb while the others will flatten out or regress.

That said, if there's anything that you absolutely love, don't feel bad about keeping it, especially if you're not into it for much. I don't think they're winning the title this year, so a loss shouldn't be some huge disappointment like it will be for players like Jokic / Giannis whose runways are already several years shorter and teams will only get worse in the next couple years.

[BigAl83]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Back on topic: I have / had in a very similar situation, as I probably have / had one of the larger SGA collections out there. I think people giving the blanket statements of "sell the small stuff" or "sell the big stuff" probably lack the nuance of your collection and the SGA market in general.

I think while there have been some huge jumps in brands like NT / Flawless / Prizm / mid-range autos, there have been others that have been slower to catch on, and I think if you're not dumping everything at once, I would sell cards that have made huge jumps like those brands I mentioned where they have essentially doubled or tripled since the beginning of the season, and slowly roll out the other brands that have "only" experienced 25-50% growth. As buyers get priced out of the first options or the multiples become unsustainable, people will start looking at second or third options and they will start to climb while the others will flatten out or regress.

That said, if there's anything that you absolutely love, don't feel bad about keeping it, especially if you're not into it for much. I don't think they're winning the title this year, so a loss shouldn't be some huge disappointment like it will be for players like Jokic / Giannis whose runways are already several years shorter and teams will only get worse in the next couple years.

Thats a great take on it! Yeah the strange thing is that not everything has somewhat followed the same curve.
You have already sold of some of your stuff im guessing from your post?

Well if the last Shai NT RPA /99 BGS 9.5 sale of 84k on Fanatics was legit earlier this month, that card has more than doubled in price in a little over a month.
And thats almost exactly the same price of what a Luka NT RPA /99 BGS 9.5 sold for before he was traded.
With Giannis (champ, 2xmvp, dpoy) at 66k late 2023 and Curry at 150k just last week, i don't know but thats a pretty steep price bump for SGA already.

[Kobefan]

This is all pretty much a guess, cause we will never know the trajectory of a player's hobby value and the hobby value of certain inserts, parallels or autos. Back in 2006, Lebron's top rc year cards (excluding 1/1 and very low numbered cards) were 1. Exquisite RPA, 2. Ultimate RC Auto, 3.&4. Either SP Authentic or SPX Rc auto jersey, 5. a bunch of other rc auto, almost all were in greater demand than his Topps Chrome rc refractor or his Topps Chrome rc gold refractor (if I remember correctly), so it's hard to gauge the trends.

[mondogenerator]

rank em from low to high (importance, value, meaning) then work from the bottom up to clear your investment $, see whats left, maybe take some profit and keep your favs if you wanna ride out his career to possibly higher highs.

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by tjforce

And it can happen. I heard something amazing a few night ago watching Cavs vs Grizzlies. Evan Mobley took JJJ from the 3 pt line to the rim with a crossover and Eurostep, and the TNT announcer said something about Mobley having a really deep bag. Nobody would have said that even 1 year ago about him... but he's developed in throughout the last year. If Wemby even gets there it'll be games full of highlight dunks.

Sounds like Wemby's ceiling is Mobley + inches. Which kind of makes sense and is cool, because it means he is unique and the upside is still undefined.

Then again maybe it's just how you look at any young player. Like I think of Nesmith's ceiling as being Westbrook - hogging the ball.

As far as the RPAs, the Opulence really catches the eyes. Solid $2,500 card on eBay.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Back on topic: I have / had in a very similar situation, as I probably have / had one of the larger SGA collections out there. I think people giving the blanket statements of "sell the small stuff" or "sell the big stuff" probably lack the nuance of your collection and the SGA market in general.

I think while there have been some huge jumps in brands like NT / Flawless / Prizm / mid-range autos, there have been others that have been slower to catch on, and I think if you're not dumping everything at once, I would sell cards that have made huge jumps like those brands I mentioned where they have essentially doubled or tripled since the beginning of the season, and slowly roll out the other brands that have "only" experienced 25-50% growth. As buyers get priced out of the first options or the multiples become unsustainable, people will start looking at second or third options and they will start to climb while the others will flatten out or regress.

That said, if there's anything that you absolutely love, don't feel bad about keeping it, especially if you're not into it for much. I don't think they're winning the title this year, so a loss shouldn't be some huge disappointment like it will be for players like Jokic / Giannis whose runways are already several years shorter and teams will only get worse in the next couple years.

^^^Essential Reading^^^

If there’s anyone I’d listen to regarding the SGA market outlook/evaluation, it’s Spaceman. He’s been into it big for a while. I also completely agree with his statement that not all of his stuff has grown by equal proportions.

I know nothing about anything approaching high end because I can’t afford it, but I can say that some of his quality low-mid range stuff is still very affordable with room to grow (this is where I’m happy to live). I picked up an Optic Pink Velocity RC /79 the other day that honestly just seemed too cheap for the caliber player SGA is. Meanwhile some of his autos seem like they are priced as if he’s a lock to win the Championship this year.


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