Are You Ready For A Lockout? - Page 6

JRX · 03-19-2025, 10:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by premium1981

The staff is full of question marks this year too. They are far from a sure thing to march over the entire league. Go back over the last couple of decades and see how many times the favorite going in won it all. This is why baseball is the best. If I'm a betting man, I will take the field over the Dodgers all day long.

Best bet is beating them in a 5 game series. Longer it goes less likely you'll get 4 wins.

Raleigh504 · 03-19-2025, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

NFL is all national deals. The biggest issue with NBA/NHL/MLB is they're all seasonal and only the most die hard sports fans really care about watching the regular season for all 3. Once you move into a streaming business model you end up losing 6 months of revenue so you either double the price and lose more customers or make less. All three leagues have been propped up by people who don't watch but were made to pay via their cable packages.

The biggest issue are the cable packages being bought less and less. They would almost need to merge like how Disney does with Hulu & ESPN+ for their streaming stuff. Have MLBtv be apart of another streaming platform and have MLBtv always play at least 1 MLB game on it if available.

I 100% agree on it being propped up, and the issue with NBA is it is hard to find games to watch (your team) when you are not local. NFL has the Sunday ticket for out of market which I think makes a ton of money on, but they also have it locally available with regional broadcasts (which makes sense). That is what I was pretty much eluding to. Strike a deal with Fox, ABC, CBS and any others I am missing that they play games at a certain time slot. Let MLB distribute it according to regional based on teams. This could also lead to 1pm games in ATL showing Miami games since they don't play until 4pm. But with salary caps, you will spread out talent since teams can overspend on guys they normally wouldn't/couldn't. Like the NFL, it levels the playing field and teams that can draft and develop talent then it gives you an advantage in keeping them for their whole career unless they already are at the top of the cap.

Granted what I am saying there are like 20 moving parts that need to happen but the NFL model is the way to go with cap, broadcasts and such.

Raleigh504 · 03-19-2025, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by premium1981

The staff is full of question marks this year too. They are far from a sure thing to march over the entire league. Go back over the last couple of decades and see how many times the favorite going in won it all. This is why baseball is the best. If I'm a betting man, I will take the field over the Dodgers all day long.

Except the Athletics. Someone actually bet against the As (forget the year but it was when they were REALLY bad.... like Chicago last year) and at the end of the season they won a ton of money.

But agreed, Dodgers are a few TJs away and guys getting hurt to be a vulnerable team. Plus playoffs are a different beast.

JRX · 03-19-2025, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

The biggest issue are the cable packages being bought less and less. They would almost need to merge like how Disney does with Hulu & ESPN+ for their streaming stuff. Have MLBtv be apart of another streaming platform and have MLBtv always play at least 1 MLB game on it if available.

I 100% agree on it being propped up, and the issue with NBA is it is hard to find games to watch (your team) when you are not local. NFL has the Sunday ticket for out of market which I think makes a ton of money on, but they also have it locally available with regional broadcasts (which makes sense). That is what I was pretty much eluding to. Strike a deal with Fox, ABC, CBS and any others I am missing that they play games at a certain time slot. Let MLB distribute it according to regional based on teams. This could also lead to 1pm games in ATL showing Miami games since they don't play until 4pm. But with salary caps, you will spread out talent since teams can overspend on guys they normally wouldn't/couldn't. Like the NFL, it levels the playing field and teams that can draft and develop talent then it gives you an advantage in keeping them for their whole career unless they already are at the top of the cap.

Granted what I am saying there are like 20 moving parts that need to happen but the NFL model is the way to go with cap, broadcasts and such.

In NY one of the local channels CW has actually leaned more into sports, but I don't know if there's really money in say putting all the Mets games on CW. The advertising rates can't be that good. Also left out is the regular season is too long and with the new playoff format a waste of time. So you get interest the first week or so and then in sep if the team is good.

fabiani12333 · 03-19-2025, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by premium1981

Aint going to happen. They are dang good, but this is baseball, not football. Many teams have tried building super teams before and it never works like people think. An injury here or an injury there, or maybe a down year for a player or two is all it takes. Or, maybe they win 120 games and run into a hot team in the playoffs after sitting out the first round. All I know is I have watched a lot of baseball for a lot of years and it pretty much never plays out like people think it will.

PS. As a Braves homer, I will also throw in there that people forget just how good this Braves team is because of the record amount of injuries last year. A healthy Strider and Sale in the playoffs will be hard to get past with this offense. Not saying the Braves are the best, just saying that baseball is a competitive sport, even when it doesn't seem that way.

The last time a team repeated as a champion was the Yankees in 2000, so the historical odds are against the Dodgers doing so this season. But they did load up last off-season and built a super team that won a championship, so they've shown the ability to buy a championship.

JRX · 03-19-2025, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The last time a team repeated as a champion was the Yankees in 2000, so the historical odds are against the Dodgers doing so this season. But they did load up last off-season and built a super team that won a championship, so they've shown the ability to buy a championship.

Yeah I don't think it matters if no other team has done it. No other team won and then added even more. Again even with all the deferrals and bonuses, the total salary + tax is over 500M. They're 120M above the Mets and over 200M more than the Yankees. At least Hal can get a nice boat.

atk825 · 03-19-2025, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

Yeah I don't think it matters if no other team has done it. No other team won and then added even more. Again even with all the deferrals and bonuses, the total salary + tax is over 500M. They're 120M above the Mets and over 200M more than the Yankees. At least Hal can get a nice boat.

And the Dodgers are still wildly profitable.

atk825 · 03-19-2025, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

Except the Athletics. Someone actually bet against the As (forget the year but it was when they were REALLY bad.... like Chicago last year) and at the end of the season they won a ton of money.

But agreed, Dodgers are a few TJs away and guys getting hurt to be a vulnerable team. Plus playoffs are a different beast.

The Dodgers had those TJs and injuries happen last year and still won the WS. The only reason they didn't win 110 games was because they had so little healthy starting pitching. Hell even in the playoffs, they basically punted two games just because they didn't have any pitching depth.

Bcwcardz · 03-19-2025, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

Best bet is beating them in a 5 game series. Longer it goes less likely you'll get 4 wins.

I agree. San Diego almost did just that last year. They were up 2 games to 1. I don’t think we would have all this super team and it’s unfair talk if that happened. I also think Roberts would be on the hot seat. Winning changes a lot.

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JRX · 03-20-2025, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

the big problem on the horizon is the death of TV deals. A few local broadcasters have gone belly-up and ESPN isn't dropping $500 mill per year anymore. I think the day of "record profits" is over.

Side note, my biggest grip about the negotiations is how the two sides will go for weeks without even actively negotiating with each other.

Last time around, the owners locked out the players in hopes that it would "jumpstart negotiations". It took them 40 days before they actually submitted a proposal to the player's union.

I imagine the negotiations are a lot like all day presentations followed by everyone turning into hulk hogan "that doesn't work for me brother" and they adjourn.

YouTheManNick · 03-20-2025, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

would it mean the end of Fanatics?

How great would that be!?!

fabiani12333 · 04-15-2025, 07:01 AM

Found this bit of information in a CNBC article on MLB considering a salary cap for the next CBA:

Quote:

The MLBPA has a so-called “war chest” of money to help non-star players afford a work stoppage, and it’s prepared to use it as soon as December 2026, according to people familiar with the union’s thinking. The money derives from licensing fees from baseball cards, video games and other merchandise.

The size of the war chest is unclear, but people close to the matter say it’s larger than that of the last round of bargaining, when it was considered a record amount.

The union executive board voted in December to withhold 100% of 2024 licensing money to prepare for bargaining to replace the current labor contract, said the people familiar.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/mlb-...out-looms.html