Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

I for one am standing behind my statements and consigning a bunch of stuff I don't need.

I respect your dedication. You are on a card forum with a bunch of degens saying their investments and collectables are about to flop. Of course you are going to get a bunch of hate.

I'm not going to say the sky is falling but A LOT of "collectors" seem to be consolidating their collections.

[PuddleMonkey]

I actually feel bad for anyone doing this as an investment.

[jkampis]

Originally Posted by jeff152380

My shop has never been busier....almost too busy to handle. More transactions and customers then ever....

Similar for me. I have another (used to be primary) job writing about tax issues for a group in DC. Now, my wife has to help me run the store some days so I have time for my other job.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bcr

I respect your dedication. You are on a card forum with a bunch of degens saying their investments and collectables are about to flop. Of course you are going to get a bunch of hate.

I'm not going to say the sky is falling but A LOT of "collectors" seem to be consolidating their collections.

I think we’re seeing more consolidation than ever thanks to the bloat of the last five years. There is a limit to how much you can own and how much you can enjoy owning. The excess is threatening the long-term survival of today’s cards.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

I actually feel bad for anyone doing this as an investment.

So you think all Vintage is a bad investment as well?

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I think we’re seeing more consolidation than ever thanks to the bloat of the last five years. There is a limit to how much you can own and how much you can enjoy owning. The excess is threatening the long-term survival of today’s cards.

This is the Panini problem. When you produce 50 different variations of every card, in every product (and you have a lot of products), they all blend together and none of them end up being particularly desirable or valuable.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by solt0131

So you think all Vintage is a bad investment as well?

Does it really matter what he thinks at this point? For months now he has stated we are in a declining market. Not heading that way, but actively in one. The entire time he has been making these statements the market has continued to go up. So I'm not really sure if anyone takes him seriously at this point, and if they do they should probably have their heads examined. The market will eventually trend down, all markets do. But its not right now. He will keep repeating the same things over and over and eventually, when the market does turn he will tell everyone how incredible his prediction was. Although its already wrong. Really wrong. So if you truly want his opinion on vintage Pokemon, I would recommend doing the opposite of what he suggests.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Does it really matter what he thinks at this point? For months now he has stated we are in a declining market. Not heading that way, but actively in one. The entire time he has been making these statements the market has continued to go up. So I'm not really sure if anyone takes him seriously at this point, and if they do they should probably have their heads examined. The market will eventually trend down, all markets do. But its not right now. He will keep repeating the same things over and over and eventually, when the market does turn he will tell everyone how incredible his prediction was. Although its already wrong. Really wrong. So if you truly want his opinion on vintage Pokemon, I would recommend doing the opposite of what he suggests.

That's why I bought that Goudey Collection. Do the opposite of what Puddle Monkey thinks or says and you're gold.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by solt0131

So you think all Vintage is a bad investment as well?

Any cards as an investment is a bad idea. Your cards have to go up 20% to break even with fees if selling on auction houses or eBay. As a hobby, vintage may be the safest, but there are way better places to put your money.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

I actually feel bad for anyone doing this as an investment.

My ladies son just started into doing cards. He did a few larger buy ins to breaks. He ended up with a high end football rookie card 1/1 Nike Patch which wasn’t even worn by the player. Over $4K out of a $350 buy in. He has spent half that amount and has a couple other decent cards.

I don’t concern myself with a hobby being a financial windfall. Was probably the first Brady to mass collect his rare cards. I sold in 08 a month before his knee was shredded by the Chiefs. I wanted to cover near what I had spent in the hobby and I did. The person who purchased my Brady collection is probably a millionaire but I give him props even though he was pissed at me for buying my collection. I told him to hold onto his cards because he will be back, I was just hoping for his sake but Brady did.

We can all guess what the hobby will do but I’ve seen a huge percentage of youth getting into cards since the pandemic and it’s extremely noticeable. I see about 20% of the dealers are under 21 setting up where back 20 years ago maybe one dealer would. Parents handing down collections and these kids are serious into taking it to another level.

The hobby is as strong as I’ve ever seen it but i’m only 60.

[kipgen]

I actually feel great for anyone doing this as an investment.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I think we’re seeing more consolidation than ever thanks to the bloat of the last five years. There is a limit to how much you can own and how much you can enjoy owning. The excess is threatening the long-term survival of today’s cards.

I completely agree.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by kipgen

I actually feel great for anyone doing this as an investment.

Ask the people who invested in the 52 Mantle years ago.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Ask the people who invested in the 52 Mantle years ago.

If you collected in cards prior to the boom, you won the lottery. Notice I said collected and not invested. The majority of people that made big money on these vintage cards were collectors and not investors. I doubt vintage goes up much from here. Once things are treated solely as an investment, we will never see the same growth again. Collectors are now priced out of many of these cards.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by solt0131

So you think all Vintage is a bad investment as well?

I don't dabble in the vintage market. I have a T206 card or whatever it's called but I couldn't tell you the name of the player without digging it out. A Nolan Ryan rookie. Rickey, Ozzie, etc. I don't follow what Mantles are doing.

[Above the Rim]

When I started making some discretionary money back in my early 30's, I plowed it into mostly Pre-War. I had a blast investing, er collecting, er whatever you want to call it.

Now i am 59 years young and am sitting on some very nice stuff - Cobb's, Ruth's, Walter Johnson's, Mathewson's, Cy Young's, and a smattering of Hornsby's, Ted Williams', Dimaggio's, Satchell Paige's, couple Honus Wagner's, Hank Aaron PSA 8 run, bunch of Nolan Ryan's.

I hit the lottery if you want to call it that. Cheers ! It has set me up for a decent retirement.

The modern stuff, it's fun and all, but the vast majority of it valuewise down the road, g'luck.

[kipgen]

I'll say it's funny that the topic of conversation is being risk-averse when cards are probably one of the most speculative, risky investments you can make

If somebody is placing any serious amount of money in cards (outside of collecting solely just to have it) I would not describe them as risk-averse

[notfast]

yeah card shows are definitely busy.

[K111]

Originally Posted by solt0131

So you think all Vintage is a bad investment as well?

Probably, the main collectors of Vintage were boomers and the kids of boomers, the boomers are either dying or selling their collections so you will see prices go down, I doubt they will go up again because most young people don't care about Vintage and are unfamiliar with most names outside of the icons like Ruth/Mantle/Robinson

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by K111

Probably, the main collectors of Vintage were boomers and the kids of boomers, the boomers are either dying or selling their collections so you will see prices go down, I doubt they will go up again because most young people don't care about Vintage and are unfamiliar with most names outside of the icons like Ruth/Mantle/Robinson

People have been saying this forever. And the "younger" generations ALWAYS end up caring about baseball history and vintage cards.

[backtothe50s]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

People have been saying this forever. And the "younger" generations ALWAYS end up caring about baseball history and vintage cards.

I agree. People were saying this way back in the 80’s at least! Vintage ALWAYS remains strong through it all. (There’s always a market for 50’s and 60’s topps. 1992 topps or 2007 topps, not so much!

[Bcr]

Funny enough my dad is a boomer who loves ultra modern and I am more into vintage. I love all cards but vintage cards just hit different and will always have their place.

[solt0131]

No recent posts? Market must be dying.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by solt0131

No recent posts? Market must be dying.

I'll be going to Strongville show on April 11, and just got back from the Phoenix show last week. Then I probably won't go to another until Shipshewana in May.

[Raleigh504]

For baseball compared to other sports, history is celebrated and not looked down upon. LeBron recently went on a rant among other modern players about how bad the older players are (the ones who laid the groundwork for them to get $50M a year) and that they would all average 70 points a game. It not only hurts them but also the history when the talking heads disrespect the past players.

NFL has changed too much in how they play that QBs are treated differently now along with RBs and defensive players too.

Baseball is the only one that respects and the “gate keepers” (poking fun at the hobby losers who say this) make sure the past is respected with celebrating the current players and placing them among the ranks of all-time when it is warranted.