Jackson Merrill Signs 9-Year, $135M Extension With the Padres

[Jaypers]

Per Robert Murray.

Sounds like a steal to me.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/...n-merrill.html

[Funkster]

Must be nice to extend your young stars.


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[Jaypers]

Originally Posted by Funkster

Must be nice to extend your young stars.


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I'm reading the Red Sox are already in talks to extend Campbell.

[KhalDrogo]

Another player too scared to bet on himself. Softest sport in the world.

[Hollywood42]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Another player too scared to bet on himself. Softest sport in the world.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Guy is supposed to be a top talent and he’s taking a deal worth $20M AAV max. That’s tied for 64th this year, and will be deep in the 100s by time the deal is over.

[carlo16]

There’s four walls in my room. I’ll just argue with one of those.

[Hollywood42]

Sounds pretty good to me when he'd otherwise be stuck making league minimum for the next 3 seasons and then another 3 years in arbitration

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Guy is supposed to be a top talent and he’s taking a deal worth $20M AAV max. That’s tied for 64th this year, and will be deep in the 100s by time the deal is over.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Sounds pretty good to me when he'd otherwise be stuck making league minimum for the next 3 seasons and then another 3 years in arbitration

As Soto proved, arbitration is very lucrative if you produce. Soto got $8.5M in his first arb year, and $17M in his second. He got $19.9M average in his four years of arbitration. Poor Acuna, who was clearly his comp at the time, maxes out at $17M a year.

The play is to bet on yourself, produce the way you know you can, and get to free agency. Merrill is a really good player. He’s worth way more than the deal he just signed.

[MyckKabongo]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Sounds pretty good to me when he'd otherwise be stuck making league minimum for the next 3 seasons and then another 3 years in arbitration

This is 101 type stuff yet so many struggle to understand. He traded off 4 FA years on the backend of this deal where maybe if he's a superduperstar he could've gotten like 30-40M a year but in return he makes way more in his arb and pre-arb years and eliminates all risk. Don't forget time value of money of shifting earning to now instead of 5 years hence.

Football and Basketball players are extremely jealous of baseball contracts specifically because they are guaranteed. Huh, it turns out all those alpha dogs in the manly men sports would happily trade chance of higher returns for reduced risk.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

This is 101 type stuff yet so many struggle to understand. He traded off 4 FA years on the backend of this deal where maybe if he's a superduperstar he could've gotten like 30-40M a year but in return he makes way more in his arb and pre-arb years and eliminates all risk. Don't forget time value of money of shifting earning to now instead of 5 years hence.

Football and Basketball players are extremely jealous of baseball contracts specifically because they are guaranteed. Huh, it turns out all those alpha dogs in the manly men sports would happily trade chance of higher returns for reduced risk.

LOL. NBA contracts are guaranteed. There are 85 players making $20M or more despite there being an active roster size difference of 15 vs 26. Middle of the bench guys make $10M+. Nobody in the NBA is jealous of the MLB.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Another player making the smart financial decision. Good for him and his life-changing money. Glad he's betting on himself that he'll still be a stud in 9 years and get paid twice.

$20M today is worth more than $40M in 5 years, and there is zero risk of injury and retiring with nothing but league minimum and a signing bonus.

[DylanPowers92]

he still has a chance at a second large long term after this one since he will only be 31 after this contract expires

[Dukefett]

Amazing we got this done!!! Merrill loves this team, took a team friendly deal to just get it out of the way and keep ripping it! I'm so excited!!!

[Bosoxfan5990]

Are the Padres actually going to be able to meet payroll to pay this?

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

As Soto proved, arbitration is very lucrative if you produce. Soto got $8.5M in his first arb year, and $17M in his second. He got $19.9M average in his four years of arbitration. Poor Acuna, who was clearly his comp at the time, maxes out at $17M a year.

The play is to bet on yourself, produce the way you know you can, and get to free agency. Merrill is a really good player. He’s worth way more than the deal he just signed.

It's a fair point and I think the Padres got a steal like Jaypers said. Though it's great for the fans.

Best case scenario betting on himself, he turns out to be the next Soto and ends up making $300+ MM over those next 9 years. Worse case, he's what, Jake Cronenworth and ends up making $86+ MM over those next 9 years? So, instead he's guaranteeing himself an extra $5 MM per season? (Considering future value, it's probably less than that).

I get why young players are interested in grabbing the guarantee and I much prefer seeing players do this and staying with their teams (I would have liked a no trade at the very least) but it really wouldn't have been much of a risk for him to wait or hold out for more.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

) but it really wouldn't have been much of a risk for him to wait or hold out for more.

The risk of injury is always present and powerful. It can end a career tomorrow. Every individual must do a risk/reward analysis. And for most people, the difference between a few years at league minimum being your lifetime earnings, and tens of millions of dollars is extreme. One sets you and your family up for life. The other means you are opening a car dealership and working into your 60s. On the other side, the difference in $20M a year and $40M a year has very little actual affect on your life. It makes a ton of sense to remove the risk altogether and get paid now.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

The risk of injury is always present and powerful. It can end a career tomorrow. Every individual must do a risk/reward analysis. And for most people, the difference between a few years at league minimum being your lifetime earnings, and tens of millions of dollars is extreme. One sets you and your family up for life. The other means you are opening a car dealership and working into your 60s. On the other side, the difference in $20M a year and $40M a year has very little actual affect on your life. It makes a ton of sense to remove the risk altogether and get paid now.

Generally, I agree with this sentiment. And I certainly am happy for Jackson and his windfall. But realistically, what career ending injury are we talking about? While guys do get hurt all the time, a career ending injury for a CF is exceedingly rare; particularly when DH is an option across the league.

[KhalDrogo]

Would love to hear some notable names of young players who experienced career ending or altering injuries under 30. And not guys coming out of the draft who already had injury concerns.

I can think of a few over the last 25 years, but it’s a drop in the bucket.

[Dukefett]

Today is not the day to be bidding on a Jackson Merrill auction lol

[JRX]

I mean Tatis got 340M, he did seem to settle for cheap.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Another player too scared to bet on himself. Softest sport in the world.

Not striving to maximize his income doesn’t make him or the sport soft. Money isn’t the most important thing in the world to all people. Critiquing someone for that approach seems overly critical and unnecessary

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

As Soto proved, arbitration is very lucrative if you produce. Soto got $8.5M in his first arb year, and $17M in his second. He got $19.9M average in his four years of arbitration. Poor Acuna, who was clearly his comp at the time, maxes out at $17M a year.

The play is to bet on yourself, produce the way you know you can, and get to free agency. Merrill is a really good player. He’s worth way more than the deal he just signed.

The problem is the wager size. It’s lotto level money guaranteed now vs bigger lotto level money. The upside isn’t anything life changing. He is already there with this extension. The downside is going joe Charboneau or Todd Hollandsworth, ending with a basic job and basic life. Henry Hill at the end of Goodfellas.

The non fiction book The Professor, The Banker, and The Suicide King does a really good job demonstrating the effect of wagering too much money. A novice goes head to head with the best poker players in the world and levels the playing field by raising the stakes to a point where his opponents are measurably uncomfortable with the amounts wagered.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_...e_Suicide_King

[MyckKabongo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

LOL. NBA contracts are guaranteed. There are 85 players making $20M or more despite there being an active roster size difference of 15 vs 26. Middle of the bench guys make $10M+. Nobody in the NBA is jealous of the MLB.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I know at least one NBA guy (end of bench type) that back in the early 2010s said on social media that he felt baseball was more lucrative overall. Probably has a lot to do with length of contract × guaranteed enabling MLB upper middle class to secure huge totally guaranteed bags in one signing.

[ThoseBackPages]

ahhh damn! i guess he wont be leaving that hobby dead franchise