Longevity of PSA

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Snowcat

Mystery Gems repack for retail

That was the 100,000 plus for sure, but they are grading 100,000 per week without that.

[Snowcat]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

That was the 100,000 plus for sure, but they are grading 100,000 per week without that.

TCG is a huge driver. Typically, 80%+ of weekly output.

Wish they would move away from repack products completely.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Snowcat

TCG is a huge driver. Typically, 80%+ of weekly output.

Wish they would move away from repack products completely.

PSA also has a huge amount of repacks with Courtyard and many individuals. Repacks are a driver for every grading company. A lot of SGC cards end up in these as well.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by newfiesig

Been back in the hobby for 4 years now, and since I've been back, PSA has dominated the grading market.

From what I understand, it wasn't that long ago when people were cracking PSA slabs to send to Beckett. Coming out of the boom, and with PSA grading more than all other companies combined, do we think that PSA will remain king? Or do we think someone will replace them as the industry standard?

Beckett was the most popular for new stuff until around 2017. In my opinion, they screwed over people who had guaranteed turnaround times of a month turn into a heck of a lot longer. They got massively backlogged long before PSA. Maybe one reason PSA got backlogged as people switched vendors. Then BGS got rid of standard subgrades that people actually liked. The Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot decision of the decade. They had mix-matched auto grade and standard grade flips. Looked like shat having a silver flip with a gold square auto grade. They fumbled the registry. Fail after fail. It's really unfortunate since I liked their slabs on shiny stuff more than PSA.

PSA is like 1920s Ford. PSA really hasn't changed much over the years. They're #1 by a mile but there's room for competitors to bring innovation. TAG has a unique design, for example. Near term, it's doubtful any will have any significant impact. I won't rule out some stronger competition longer term. Ford was #1 but refused to innovate resulting in better looking and performing cars from the competition.

[asujbl]

I’ll be dead before someone passes PSA

People have no clue why PSA is popular. Just random collectors posting random thoughts

Blowout and Facebook are like 2% of the actual market

[Gary]

Originally Posted by asujbl

I’ll be dead before someone passes PSA

People have no clue why PSA is popular. Just random collectors posting random thoughts

Blowout and Facebook are like 2% of the actual market

It does look that way,but it wasn't that long ago people said the same about BGS......look at BGS now a clear number 4 of the big 4.


PSA is king for 1 reason,Marketing...they have the big money investors in the registry.......the big money you tube influencers all pumping PSA.........and people fell for it. the sneaker bois and flippers during covid watched a few you tube videos and went all in on PSA... nat buying in PSA just cemented the narrative.......... we all know its not the service,product or cs,or anything even closely resembling consistent grading that made them 1st.

The PWC market is exactly the same as the grading market and for the same reason......Seadoo is the PSA of PWC..........horrible product great marketing....Kawi and yam are far better PWC but have maybe 20% of the market.

[larry25]

PSA came out of PCGS, the leader in graded coins, a far more expensive and serious market than cards, so that gave PSA a huge boost from the start. Their holder was very simple and streamlined, similar to PCGS, and they got the most important items into their holders early on, ie, the T206 Wagner, lots of Mantle rookies and '52 Topps, etc. Most importantly, their slabs get the biggest dollars, and that's really all that matters. They also have the best Registry system, by far. They'll never be overtaken. Those in the hobby for more than a decade know full well that a massive percentage of the most important cards are whacked and colored and pressed and lord knows what else. It was like PEDs in baseball for years and years and years, all through the 1990s and 2000s, right up to the PWCC and BODA stuff. Everyone at PSA and all the major auction companies and dealers and many collectors knew, but no one cared. No one ever will care. Nothing will ever shake PSA's hold on the market and the culture. The plastic (probably sourced from China) could be found to be toxic or even deadly, and no one would care. PSA could be found to be stealing millions or swapping millions of dollars worth of cards from their customers, and no one would care. PSA could shoot someone in Times Square and no one would care, lol. You get my point.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Gary

It does look that way, but it wasn't that long ago people said the same about BGS......look at BGS now a clear number 4 of the big 4.

Truth. Even the CU forum people acknowledged back in the day that BGS was the way to go for Chrome stuff with PSA/SGC better for vintage. Same talk on Beckett forum and the Freedom Cardboard split from there.

Then a series of unfortunate events led to where BGS is now.

Take a Frank Thomas 1990 Leaf. It will cost you around $160 for the gem mint PSA 10 and averages about $60 for the BGS gem mint 9.5.

Take a 2000 Topps Chrome Traded Miguel Cabrera. It will cost you about $800 for the PSA 10 and about $300 for the BGS 9.5.

It was only about 10 years ago those roles were reversed, albeit not so extreme.

Yes, it's possible to run a good name into the ground. That said, the only thing in the next decade that would hurt PSA would be a startup with massive capital and the odds of that happening are slim.

[inaka]

I said this in the SGC thread, but I truly believe that the only way PSA loses its dominant position is if Collector's kills SGC. It would be a catastrophic blunder to do so.

If Collector's kills SGC, it would cause a chain reaction that could even elevate Beckett back into the mix of (vintage) sports grading, and/or have SGC fans (like myself) migrate to CGC. Or imagine if a small group of vintage graders at SGC spin off and form their own company? (VCG: Vintage Card Grading) I'd try any of those options before grading vintage sports cards with PSA again. Nope.

It may look like PSA has an insurmountable lead, but don't forget, CGC didn't even launch their trading card grading division until July of 2020. That was slightly less than just five years ago, and in terms of TCG, they are the clear #2 in the entire industry by volume. Their acquisition of JSA was perfect to compete with PSA/DNA as well.

According to Gemrate, PSA graded 1.65M cards in May 2025, but CGC graded an extremely respectable 570k cards total. That's a very strong #2 position, especially when SGC and Beckett combined for 200k total.

The main reason people select PSA isn't for the brand itself, the price, the customer service, or for their turnaround times. PSA frankly sucks in all of those areas. The main reason people select PSA is for the resale value. So instead, people put up with PSA, because they offer the most value when grading. This type of reasoning is poised for another company to eat their lunch down the road.

Remember the popularity of Woot.com, Buy.com, LivingSocial or Wish.com?

Popular brands out there valued in the billions that seemed to have market dominance, but they were only attractive due their products being so cheap. These types of companies are the easiest to fall once prices go up or a competitor offers cheaper/similar prices (cough, Temu coming out of nowhere).

So if another grading company offers equal or even similar value down the road, they could really take out PSA, and the shift would be quite quick, especially since most facets of PSA as a company, for lack of a better word, completely suck. That's just my take.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

I also think PSA will adjust back in the other direction after becoming more harsh on their gem rates and ultimately relax their grading standards a little from where they are now. As with everything in grading, there will be a lag with all of this, but I think it's inevitable.

Isn’t it interesting that you believe something other than the cards’ condition is determining the way it’s graded? That’s the biggest beef I have with them. They shouldn’t determine the grades! They should let the card and the scale do that. We need to be “more harsh,” or “more lenient,” is NEVER something they should say. If the card is an 8, slab a 8. If it’s a 10, slab it as a 10. None of this…”it’s a 10, but we need to be more harsh so today it’s a 9.” Or “it should be a 7, but we need to be more lenient so people sub more so it’s a 9 today.” Someone subs 4 perfect 93 Jeter SP’s?? 4 10’s. A stack of gem-quality Jordans? All gems get 10’s.

[salsdali]

Originally Posted by inaka

These types of companies are the easiest to fall once prices go up or a competitor offers cheaper/similar prices (cough, Temu coming out of nowhere).

kinda funny that a Chinese company hasn't gotten into card grading. Cheap labor, an eye for detail, can handle massive volume with a quick TAT due to being able to hire a million graders and use of A!, computers, gov subsidized shipping rate to and fro USA, etc.

Seems right up their alley.

[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by inaka

I said this in the SGC thread, but I truly believe that the only way PSA loses its dominant position is if Collector's kills SGC. It would be a catastrophic blunder to do so.

If Collector's kills SGC, it would cause a chain reaction that could even elevate Beckett back into the mix of (vintage) sports grading, and/or have SGC fans (like myself) migrate to CGC. Or imagine if a small group of vintage graders at SGC spin off and form their own company? (VCG: Vintage Card Grading) I'd try any of those options before grading vintage sports cards with PSA again. Nope.

It may look like PSA has an insurmountable lead, but don't forget, CGC didn't even launch their trading card grading division until July of 2020. That was slightly less than just five years ago, and in terms of TCG, they are the clear #2 in the entire industry by volume. Their acquisition of JSA was perfect to compete with PSA/DNA as well.

According to Gemrate, PSA graded 1.65M cards in May 2025, but CGC graded an extremely respectable 570k cards total. That's a very strong #2 position, especially when SGC and Beckett combined for 200k total.

The main reason people select PSA isn't for the brand itself, the price, the customer service, or for their turnaround times. PSA frankly sucks in all of those areas. The main reason people select PSA is for the resale value. So instead, people put up with PSA, because they offer the most value when grading. This type of reasoning is poised for another company to eat their lunch down the road.

Remember the popularity of Woot.com, Buy.com, LivingSocial or Wish.com?

Popular brands out there valued in the billions that seemed to have market dominance, but they were only attractive due their products being so cheap. These types of companies are the easiest to fall once prices go up or a competitor offers cheaper/similar prices (cough, Temu coming out of nowhere).

So if another grading company offers equal or even similar value down the road, they could really take out PSA, and the shift would be quite quick, especially since most facets of PSA as a company, for lack of a better word, completely suck. That's just my take.

Nice post. You've touched on several good reasons for why I believe CGC will become the clear #2 to PSA within 2 to 3 years, with CGC slabs benefitting with substantially higher resale values as a result. I view CGC from now through roughly 2030 as the equivalent to SGC from 2020-2025 in terms of gaining market share and legitimacy. CU buying SGC is more of a death knell for SGC than anything else. At the very least, that purchase will be viewed as the point where SGC's growth was abruptly stunted.

There are a lot of major issues that PSA suffers from that CGC could capitalize on, and essentially do to PSA what PSA did to Beckett from 2015-2025. Although it's unlikely CGC overtakes PSA at any point over the next decade. But stranger things have happened. CGC has the financial backing and grading credibility to pull it off.

[inaka]

Originally Posted by salsdali

kinda funny that a Chinese company hasn't gotten into card grading. Cheap labor, an eye for detail, can handle massive volume with a quick TAT due to being able to hire a million graders and use of A!, computers, gov subsidized shipping rate to and fro USA, etc.

Seems right up their alley.

Especially if AI grading becomes a thing. Even if TAG or other companies have multiple AI-grading related patents, that wouldn't stop a company based in China from infringing upon them without any regard for lawsuits. It's commonplace in China.

Look at the correlation between Meta/Facebook and TikTok. Most people have a negative view of Meta/Facebook (and Zuckerberg) much the same way they may dislike PSA. But we put up with Facebook and all of their invasive privacy-stealing methods and shady policies because there wasn't an alternative. And then TikTok came along. It's arguably far worse in terms of tracking and privacy, and it's based in China, but users don't care because they're not exactly fans of Meta/Facebook either, so if company A sucks, and company B also sucks, then there really isn't a fear of dumping company A. I see the same with with PSA. PSA has inconsistent grading, terrible customer service, ridiculous turnaround times, high cost, etc. The negatives just stack up. But they do offer the highest resale value, so we all take it on the chin, despite having big reservations about their service because they are the 800lb gorilla.

But with the way breakers, gambling, NFTs, mystery packs, and other shady elements have infiltrated the hobby, a patent-infringing overseas grading company based in China would only be frowned upon by the collecting community if they didn't offer any added value. Not by morals or ethics. If the collecting community migrated toward something like this due to a lower price and/or countless YouTube videos/testimonials that show their AI grading is actually legit, people wouldn't care about the ethics and would likely jump boat from PSA if the values for these overseas grading slabs spiked. And that change would be swift, like the mass viral adoption of TikTok. Collectors would largely stomach unscrupulous behavior from an overseas grader if it meant their cards were returned in about a week at half the cost, with nearly equal the value of PSA slabs.

It's all about the money, and companies with terrible customer service and long waits, build resentment in their customer base. It's exactly why Amazon specializes in the quickest shipping possible, high reliability, and excellent customer service to achieve their market dominance. PSA is literally the opposite in all of those areas.

[Scottish Punk]

I often thought, the only way PSA loses the top spot is for another company to actually detect micro trimming and Kurt's love spray. Something like that would really separate themselves from the other companies. The dirty secret is, I don't think a lot of the flipper/gambler community really wants that.

[Cracktoast]

speaking of a Chinese company jumping into grading. Let it happen and see how fast grading gets regulated by the U.S. Govt or tack on a 125% Tarrif to boot. Plus what are you going to do ship your cards overseas ? They almost certainly need to be U.S. based which brings you back to point #1 and govt regulations.

[Triple B]

Stats for the month of May via GemRate:



...and then for Friday, June 13th alone..



BGS no longer matter.

[imbluestreak23]

BGS is the only one that has a viable chance based on brand.

Their immediate future looks bleak, so PSA sadly has as safe of a lead as you can have. Not great for industry competition.

[inaka]

Originally Posted by Cracktoast

speaking of a Chinese company jumping into grading. Let it happen and see how fast grading gets regulated by the U.S. Govt or tack on a 125% Tarrif to boot. Plus what are you going to do ship your cards overseas ? They almost certainly need to be U.S. based which brings you back to point #1 and govt regulations.

PSA has an office in Japan to ship cards domestically within Japan. Customers in Japan do not have to ship cards to America even though PSA is an American company based in the USA. They don't ship them overseas.

Also, it wouldn't have to be a Chinese company. I just used that example to show that the ethics of patent infringement don't mean anything to China, and also the ethics/morals of flippers/collectors also don't mean anything in general if it meant flippers/collectors cards had a high value similar to PSA, specially if the grading was cheap, and there was mass adoption of the company's slabs.

It wouldn't even have to even be an overseas company, if they were not infringing on AI patents. Heck, if some outside player like DraftKings bought TAG and got into the space, and went all-in and ramped up AI grading to the point where they could perform at a loss with $5 grading initially to build a customer base, that could be something too that would rock PSA. The hobby doesn't care, as long as cards have value. DraftKings has a market cap of $18B, Fanatics has a market cap of $31B and Collector's Universe has a market cap slightly under 1B.

I just view grading as changing quite a bit when AI workflows go mainstream, and if that happens, that opens the door for other companies to occupy the space. Collector's Universe is hardly the insurmountable juggernaut that many think they are, but again, that's just my opinion and who knows.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by inaka

Especially if AI grading becomes a thing. Even if TAG or other companies have multiple AI-grading related patents, that wouldn't stop a company based in China from infringing upon them without any regard for lawsuits. It's commonplace in China.

Look at the correlation between Meta/Facebook and TikTok. Most people have a negative view of Meta/Facebook (and Zuckerberg) much the same way they may dislike PSA. But we put up with Facebook and all of their invasive privacy-stealing methods and shady policies because there wasn't an alternative. And then TikTok came along. It's arguably far worse in terms of tracking and privacy, and it's based in China, but users don't care because they're not exactly fans of Meta/Facebook either, so if company A sucks, and company B also sucks, then there really isn't a fear of dumping company A. I see the same with with PSA. PSA has inconsistent grading, terrible customer service, ridiculous turnaround times, high cost, etc. The negatives just stack up. But they do offer the highest resale value, so we all take it on the chin, despite having big reservations about their service because they are the 800lb gorilla.

But with the way breakers, gambling, NFTs, mystery packs, and other shady elements have infiltrated the hobby, a patent-infringing overseas grading company based in China would only be frowned upon by the collecting community if they didn't offer any added value. Not by morals or ethics. If the collecting community migrated toward something like this due to a lower price and/or countless YouTube videos/testimonials that show their AI grading is actually legit, people wouldn't care about the ethics and would likely jump boat from PSA if the values for these overseas grading slabs spiked. And that change would be swift, like the mass viral adoption of TikTok. Collectors would largely stomach unscrupulous behavior from an overseas grader if it meant their cards were returned in about a week at half the cost, with nearly equal the value of PSA slabs.

It's all about the money, and companies with terrible customer service and long waits, build resentment in their customer base. It's exactly why Amazon specializes in the quickest shipping possible, high reliability, and excellent customer service to achieve their market dominance. PSA is literally the opposite in all of those areas.

Why posit that a Chinese AI grading company, instead of considering TAG which does all that is mentioned above?

[inaka]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Why posit that a Chinese AI grading company, instead of considering TAG which does all that is mentioned above?

Because TAG doesn't have the money/backing to make it on their own.

If AI grading becomes the norm, the only way TAG makes it is if they're purchased outright by another company for their patents....or if a company overseas disregards their patents. Greater chance at the latter in my opinion.

[Snowcat]

Originally Posted by inaka

Because TAG doesn't have the money/backing to make it on their own.

If AI grading becomes the norm, the only way TAG makes it is if they're purchased outright by another company for their patents....or if a company overseas disregards their patents. Greater chance at the latter in my opinion.

PSA, SGC, Beckett, they all took decades to rise to the top. PSA was dead in the water until the McGwire-Sosa steroid fueled hr race of 1998--after 7+ years in the space.

SGC has had numerous ups/downs, as well as BGS. Sometimes things take time, especially when you bring new innovation into a space.

TAG has a leg-up over their competition when it comes to AI grading. TAG needs time to grow, and to gain market share. While I'm sure they'd love to sell for a nice chunk of change, I'm sure they're also fine just seeing where this thing takes them. They're fine financially.

AI has a future in collectibles grading, but it's heyday may still be several years out.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by inaka

Because TAG doesn't have the money/backing to make it on their own.

If AI grading becomes the norm, the only way TAG makes it is if they're purchased outright by another company for their patents....or if a company overseas disregards their patents. Greater chance at the latter in my opinion.

Based on what, that TAG doesn't have the money or backing?

So some foreign company is going to pop up that will........

[salsdali]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Based on what, that TAG doesn't have the money or backing?

So some foreign company is going to pop up that will........

I was the one who brought up a Chinese company because even TAG says they still have humans who need to handle the cards at various points.

TAG (or even PSA) human employee = minimum $18.00/hr in CA

Chinese human employee = minimum $3.00/hr in China

x 70,000 cards a day

Originally Posted by Triple B

...and then for Friday, June 13th alone..

do the math

there's a reason a CA based company like Apple manufactures iPhones in China (or India)

the same is going to happen to virtually every US company that uses human labor so no reason to think card grading companies will be immune to what's coming

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by salsdali

I was the one who brought up a Chinese company because even TAG says they still have humans who need to handle the cards at various points.

TAG (or even PSA) human employee = minimum $18.00/hr in CA

Chinese human employee = minimum $3.00/hr in China

x 70,000 cards a day



do the math

there's a reason a CA based company like Apple manufactures iPhones in China (or India)

the same is going to happen to virtually every US company that uses human labor so no reason to think card grading companies will be immune to what's coming

Shipping costs and delays. Deeply flawed argument

[salsdali]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Shipping costs and delays. Deeply flawed argument

up until recently shipping costs were subsidized through PRC and USPS. They once again probably will be once trump is out of office.

Delays? you realize they don't ship light items like cards on tanker ships like the old days, there's a new invention called airplanes that can fly to China in less than one day, imagine that. A shipment of 70,000 cards per day to China would be ridiculously cheap with a guaranteed contract.

China would clearly just establish a US based shipping hub for to and from shipments like how the over 10 million third party Chinese sellers who have been selling on Amazon for the past 10 years have done. It's nothing new and is what made Amazon the largest online retailer.