Patrick Mahomes Prices

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by weeds73

As time passes, the Donruss optic gets closer in status to Prizm (in my opinion). Plus, Optic was so distinctive that year with the no helmet imagery.

ultimately, I think the Mahomes optic will go down as his most iconic card. Reminds me of the 1989 Griffey upper deck portrait shot….


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It won't.

And the reason why is Lineage. When the the Panini era is over with (very soon) people will associate the era with Prizm. There's an entire separate market for Prizm Golds and 1/1s of the GOATS like Mahomes, Brady, LeBron, Kobe, Steph, etc.

As the old saying goes: Prizm is king.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

lol...true insert? that is a reach. According to beckett they're both inserts which means they are exactly the same...

Not a reach at all.

One is part of an insert set:


The other a parallel of the base set:


Pretty Straight forward

[boxbuster7]

but wouldn't a parallel of the base set technically be more valuable if true rookies are king?

(throwing out that prizm is king paradigm I would actually prefer the optic over a prizm auto)

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

but wouldn't a parallel of the base set technically be more valuable if true rookies are king?

(throwing out that prizm is king paradigm I would actually prefer the optic over a prizm auto)

It should be...I prefer the Optic Auto of the the Prizm Sticker auto all day.

Now, comparing the any Optic base parallel to a similar Prizm base parallel: The Prizm base parallel will win. The Prizm just being an insert with a different picture and being a sticker takes it down a few notches in comparison.

There's just a lineage that the top non-auto cards of the era are:
-2012 Brady Prizm Gold
-2017 Mahomes Prizm Gold
-2018 Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson Prizm Gold
-2020 Joe Burrow/Jalen Hurts Primz Gold
and so on.

If you want the top card of whoever you're chasing (excluding 1/1s), these are the cards to get... in basketball as well

[boxbuster7]

I initially thought you said the prizm auto was better...that is where my confusion lied

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

I initially thought you said the prizm auto was better...that is where my confusion lied

It's father's day and I'm a couple beers in, so if my explanation is confusing then I'm not surprised. lol

In summary:

Prizm #269>

Optic #177 w base and auto parallels>

Prizm RA-PM....


Unless of course you are comparing different print runs or preferred colors....

Ohh what the hell, every one of these damn cards are nice!!

[Charismatic44th]

Now what about a pack-pulled auto of Prizm #269? Where does that rank haha




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[weeds73]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The biggest difference is that Optic Autos are parallels, Prizm autos are true inserts:

-Different Picture
-Different (slightly) card design, and most importantly...
-Different Numbering


That's all on top of it being a sticker card. No different than NT rookie autos that aren't the base card. They're all insert

Good points. Only reinforces my point of view that the optic gold auto is superior to the prizm auto.


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[weeds73]

Originally Posted by tjforce

It won't.

And the reason why is Lineage. When the the Panini era is over with (very soon) people will associate the era with Prizm. There's an entire separate market for Prizm Golds and 1/1s of the GOATS like Mahomes, Brady, LeBron, Kobe, Steph, etc.

As the old saying goes: Prizm is king.

I get that Prizm is the flagship (and will remain so…). I just think that optic has continued to narrow the gap. I also believe that his helmet-less image on the optic rookie is more “iconic” and will be the image most commonly associated with his rookie year (not to be confused with most valuable)


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[CorndogWasp]

A PSA 10 prizm silver ended at approx $4100 tonight and an PSA 10 RR Optic Holo ended at $3100 on May 25th. Only a 1k gap here during this offseason.

The RR Optic Holo is cooler imo.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by Charismatic44th

Now what about a pack-pulled auto of Prizm #269? Where does that rank haha




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Awesome card

Love buybacks

[boxbuster7]

I hate buyback autos but that one is absolutely sick

[CorndogWasp]

The Beckett slab really is ugly lol, two different hues of “gold” for the labels. My god that thing is objectify ugly. Color theory is real.

[majestik101]

Honors is the worst. What a horrible product. Great way to ruin a perfectly good rookie card, Panini.

Although, to its credit, it wasn't as horrible as 2015-16 Panini Replay Basketball was. WOOF

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Charismatic44th

Now what about a pack-pulled auto of Prizm #269? Where does that rank haha




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At roughly the same price as a PSA 10 Prizm, this seems like a much better value.

[tjforce]

I wanted to examine the price history of the 3 main Mahomes Silver rookies: Prizm, Optic Holo, and the XRC.

Here are price snapshots over the last year:



Optic Holo made it's run throughout the season jumping from about 55% the value of the Prizm 267 to 66%. It currently sits at 67% of the Prizm, so not much relative movement over the past 6 months.

Select XRC still slightly outsells the Prizm 267... which is should because of the much lower Pop count.

*Note: the Pop counts for the prior periods may have been slightly different, but they are updated as of today



The other thing to note about the Prizm 267 is that there absolutely is a premium for copies without the dimple. It's hard to figure that out online, but in person at shows I've known people on the hunt for a clean copy.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I wanted to examine the price history of the 3 main Mahomes Silver rookies: Prizm, Optic Holo, and the XRC.

Here are price snapshots over the last year:



Optic Holo made it's run throughout the season jumping from about 55% the value of the Prizm 267 to 66%. It currently sits at 67% of the Prizm, so not much relative movement over the past 6 months.

Select XRC still slightly outsells the Prizm 267... which is should because of the much lower Pop count.

*Note: the Pop counts for the prior periods may have been slightly different, but they are updated as of today



The other thing to note about the Prizm 267 is that there absolutely is a premium for copies without the dimple. It's hard to figure that out online, but in person at shows I've known people on the hunt for a clean copy.

Interesting to see.

People who purchased Prizm/Select silvers last June ended up losing money after adjusting for inflation.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Interesting to see.

People who purchased Prizm/Select silvers last June ended up losing money after adjusting for inflation.

You can see that it varies from sale to sale, but yes, pretty flat overall.

That being said, there was room for profit on all of these if you sold in Dec/Jan.

My guess is that prices climb a bit between now and the end of training camp, but after fees and all it seems to hard to make a ton of profit off of.

[majestik101]

Paid $225 for both of these back in 2019. How'd I do?

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

... People who purchased Prizm/Select silvers last June ended up losing money after adjusting for inflation.

Any collectible has been smoked with inflation. That's a given.

Everything from food to services to goods, labor, homes, vehicles, whatever has gone up. Heck, McD and Taco Bell meals are now at $10+ most places - prices that were previously just airport prices, lol.

For my office, my suppliers have all raised substantially... I've basically adopted a policy to buy as much as we can reasonably fit for non-expiration stuff as the prices just keep going up. It'll only cost more to buy the same stuff later (probably even later this summer - definitely later this year). I think every single one of my services (my utilities or subscriptions) has raised prices in the last year also. A few of them have send multiple different notices of increases.

There is a lot of pent up energy in the stock market now also. I like sports cards, but it's far from the best way to make money in an economy like this. It seems the new wax has increased (always does), but the singles and older wax sure haven't gone up accordingly. Some of that might be pent up energy or kids are more on the new stuff and breaks than older year packs/singles, but it's a risk to find out with so many other good ways to make money right now. Heck, even simple basic money market accounts are still 4% or higher.

[weeds73]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I wanted to examine the price history of the 3 main Mahomes Silver rookies: Prizm, Optic Holo, and the XRC.

Here are price snapshots over the last year:



Optic Holo made it's run throughout the season jumping from about 55% the value of the Prizm 267 to 66%. It currently sits at 67% of the Prizm, so not much relative movement over the past 6 months.

Select XRC still slightly outsells the Prizm 267... which is should because of the much lower Pop count.

*Note: the Pop counts for the prior periods may have been slightly different, but they are updated as of today



The other thing to note about the Prizm 267 is that there absolutely is a premium for copies without the dimple. It's hard to figure that out online, but in person at shows I've known people on the hunt for a clean copy.

Great stuff. Thanks for posting this. Few takeaways:

1. According to Cardladder, football index is only up 1.12% over last yr. Mahomes’ Optic tracking well above market, but the other 2 are flat to down. Would be interesting to compare key cards to other players over same time frame

2. As I noted above (and your data validated), Optic is narrowing the gap to Prizm

3. XRC should have more room to run at a premium to Prizm given that it is roughly 25% percent of the pop count of Prizm

4. Interesting to see that Optic Holo still has a substantially lower pop count than Prizm. Suggests there could still be some additional opportunity to further close the pricing gap.

Would be interesting to look at other players’ top cards over time to see whether there is one rookie card that typically separates from the others as the flagship over time, or whether multiple rookie cards can grow value over time.


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[CorndogWasp]

you guys are comparing 3-peat hype prices from last December with lower off season prices.

A better comparison is the 1 year comparison and Mahomes is up.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by CorndogWasp

you guys are comparing 3-peat hype prices from last December with lower off season prices.

A better comparison is the 1 year comparison and Mahomes is up.

Correct. Mahomes always goes up in any logical timespan... just a matter of how quick.

It'll be that way his whole remaining career... prices go up a good bit when he wins SB, MVP, etc... stable when he does ok... maybe down if major injury or terrible year... probably up quick when he starts breaking Brady yds/td records.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Here are price snapshots over the last year:

Originally Posted by CorndogWasp

you guys are comparing 3-peat hype prices from last December with lower off season prices.

A better comparison is the 1 year comparison and Mahomes is up.

Literally look at the chart I posted

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by weeds73

Great stuff. Thanks for posting this. Few takeaways:

1. According to Cardladder, football index is only up 1.12% over last yr. Mahomes’ Optic tracking well above market, but the other 2 are flat to down. Would be interesting to compare key cards to other players over same time frame

2. As I noted above (and your data validated), Optic is narrowing the gap to Prizm

3. XRC should have more room to run at a premium to Prizm given that it is roughly 25% percent of the pop count of Prizm

4. Interesting to see that Optic Holo still has a substantially lower pop count than Prizm. Suggests there could still be some additional opportunity to further close the pricing gap.

Would be interesting to look at other players’ top cards over time to see whether there is one rookie card that typically separates from the others as the flagship over time, or whether multiple rookie cards can grow value over time.


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The thing to keep in mind about these cards is that the Optic is a parallel of base and the Prizm 269 and XRC are the base.

There are 4,745 Optic Base PSA 10s. That helps dilute the overall Optic market. Comparing the overall PSA 10 population for each card and it's parallels:

Select XRC: 242
Prizm 269: 1,628
Optic RR: 7,894

Even if you excluded the Base, there are more Optic PSA 10 parallels than the entire Prizm run (3,149).


I think all 3 of these cards are great, but they just printed too many of them to keep up with the other 2 IMO.