Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[hermanotarjeta]

The only sports card collector I ran into the entire show was a nice 79 year old gentleman who was trying to complete a 1956 topps set. He was able to find about 12 commons which he paid $36 for. He was able to cross off about a third of the cards he needed on his hand written list, which was in pencil.

Good to know the hobby is blazing hot.

[theshowandme]

90% of the people at Chantilly this weekend care about the $

Same with that big Pokemon show in Tampa

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The only sports card collector I ran into the entire show was a nice 79 year old gentleman who was trying to complete a 1956 topps set. He was able to find about 12 commons which he paid $36 for. He was able to cross off about a third of the cards he needed on his hand written list, which was in pencil.

Good to know the hobby is blazing hot.

Your experience definitely overrides everything else that is taking place on a daily basis. The millions upon millions changing hands every day. And to be honest, I don’t even believe you. I think you make things up to fit your narrative. I’ve never met anyone with your mindset “dropping $1k” on cards. All you do is complain about money and how much the hobby sucks. No one does that and then drops that kind of money at single table. And you seem to be the rule, not an exception.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

While the dealer I bought from was grateful for my $1000+ wax purchase.

I’ll take things that didn’t happen for $100 Alex.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Your experience definitely overrides everything else that is taking place on a daily basis. The millions upon millions changing hands every day. And to be honest, I don’t even believe you. I think you make things up to fit your narrative. I’ve never met anyone with your mindset “dropping $1k” on cards. All you do is complain about money and how much the hobby sucks. No one does that and then drops that kind of money at single table. And you seem to be the rule, not an exception.

Originally Posted by premium1981

I’ll take things that didn’t happen for $100 Alex.

Read my review of my show experience a few pages back.

I’ve even posted a scan in the investment wax thread.

You are obviously exhibiting some resentment and anger.

You’ve also revealed how little you know about me - not a first.

Keep on working on it, you’ll get there someday. I understand the industry has been tough for many in recent years.

Perhaps you will find happiness in the hobby again one day when money longer matters.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

90% of the people at Chantilly this weekend care about the $

Same with that big Pokemon show in Tampa

This is 100% true.

Those who think the opposite have blinders on.

[MyckKabongo]

Chantilly is still 90%+ sports, no Pokémon takeover here

Saw many set collectors and chatted with folks about PCs.

Many, probably most, of the people that flip also have PCs

The flip game and hustle culture have been central aspects of the hobby since the 1980s. Many aspects of it have changed but if you step back its the same as it ever was

I had fun, crushed value boxes for 7 hours straight and still couldnt get to everything. 4xed on average. Got to say hi to the guy from OverTheYears sports on youtube.

Chantilly is such a great show. Big shout to everyone making it happen.

[hammerva]

As usual a very good Chantilly show with a very good crowd. When I left around 11 today the line for people still trying to buy tickets or going through will call was close to the barber shop. Not sure if I have seen that before on a Saturday.

Need to work on my patience skills as a couple people got on my case because I was trying to look at a box that I thought was available and wasn't. Better get that fixed before the National

The funniest thing for me was Friday as I was drinking an overpriced can of beer one of the dealers (might have the guy near the Steelers memorabilia place) went up yelling that I can't carry open beer at this show. Had to convince them I actually bought it in concession stand. Told the dealer next to me that if the dealers can drink during the show why the hell can't I

[hermanotarjeta]

Plenty of retail boxes and very little hobby box dealers.

At this time, you can pretty much buy any retail megas/blasters that you want from target/walmart/barnes noble and they are all available at the same price at the shows.

I can tell the sports cards retail market is soft because retail wax dealers are willing to just get their money back on their retail finds. Some are even losing a little just to get some cash back.

The retail box flipper bois are suffering.

[kyle1707]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Plenty of retail boxes and very little hobby box dealers.

At this time, you can pretty much buy any retail megas/blasters that you want from target/walmart/barnes noble and they are all available at the same price at the shows.

I can tell the sports cards retail market is soft because retail wax dealers are willing to just get their money back on their retail finds. Some are even losing a little just to get some cash back.

The retail box flipper bois are suffering.

Agree. My target is filled with retail product almost every time I’m there

People are finally realizing how crappy it is for the price. I see some blasters for 39.99

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Agree. My target is filled with retail product almost every time I’m there

People are finally realizing how crappy it is for the price. I see some blasters for 39.99

I think fanatics has finally reached the retail saturation point.

There are bowman megas everywhere just sitting around.

There are also no longer any fights around the card section.

This is what we asked for.

If the market was as hot as everyone says, these would be gone.

[byronscott4ever]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Agree. My target is filled with retail product almost every time I’m there

People are finally realizing how crappy it is for the price. I see some blasters for 39.99

Price hikes and store limits are helping to keep shelves full

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by byronscott4ever

Price hikes and store limits are helping to keep shelves full

The lack of buyers is keeping the shelves full.

Those restrictions do nothing for a flaming hot hobby.

[MyckKabongo]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I think fanatics has finally reached the retail saturation point.

There are bowman megas everywhere just sitting around.

There are also no longer any fights around the card section.

This is what we asked for.

If the market was as hot as everyone says, these would be gone.

Supply caught up to demand and wax manufacturers have been able to get away with huge price increases to boot. A market does not have to be in a disequilibrium to be "hot."

[Cracktoast]

Walmart today had 6-8 Bowman Blasters and maybe 5 Mega Boxes which to me doesn't scream nobody wants this garbage. Series 2 on the other hand lol

[ThoseBackPages]

the local Target here rarely ever has MLB retail

and has yet to have S2 as far as i can tell

[Akphillips86]

I think people getting smarter is good for the hobby. When people are throwing stupid money around on cards that have next to zero chance of holding value, it’s not a positive thing for long term hobby stability. I would much rather the market be “cold”, than how it was during COVID.

Don’t want to throw away hundreds of dollars with nothing to show for it? Try buying singles.

Don’t want to get burnt on cards that lose over half their value in a year or two? Stop throwing all your money at prospects.

Some people are actually figuring this out and retail staying on the shelves at current prices is actually a great sign for the hobby in my opinion. Every show I’ve attended this year has also been absolutely packed to the gills. Things are actually trending in the right direction if you want the hobby to have longevity.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Twalk1975]

Was the market trending up or down in 2018 and 2019? I recall being able to buy all the retail I wanted on clearance at that time.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

Was the market trending up or down in 2018 and 2019? I recall being able to buy all the retail I wanted on clearance at that time.

it was trending up for sure.

the show in 2019 was really really good!

then that thing happened, and here we are

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

Supply caught up to demand and wax manufacturers have been able to get away with huge price increases to boot. A market does not have to be in a disequilibrium to be "hot."

I like to use the flipper boi indicator for hobby heat.

I’m glad the hobby is dead.

[mfw13]

Here's the thins.....if the market was truly "hot", prices would be consistently rising across the board.

I've yet to see any real evidence of that.

Certain players are hot.....and there's a lot of minimally profitable or unprofitable flipping going on.....but the stock market is a lot hotter right now than the sports card market.

The only thing consistently rising is Fanatics product release prices....

[Qubits]

Just got home from a ~300 table show in Columbia, SC. I've been to this show several times now and these are my observations.

I went to the Friday "VIP" night and I did notice way less customers attending on Friday than this same show last December. Also, I noticed far more dealers who didn't even bother to set up on Friday vs December.

I also showed up today and there was still a smaller crowd than I expected in the morning but it did get end up getting really packed when I left around noon (this was partly why I left early today - I had planned to scour the value boxes but didn't feel like contending with heavy crowds to do so).

There was more pokemon this time than in December but not as much as I was expecting. I'd guess about 20-25% but I wasn't paying close attention.

I noticed a lot of the bigger deals going down at sports tables were the buyers roaming the room with their big rolling zion cases and their post-it notes buying out inventory from dealers. Its nice that repackers and whatnot folks like this provide liquidity but I could imagine it being annoying for a collector not getting a card you wanted at a show because these folks just happened to get to that table first. If collectors aren't showing up to card shows (especially if they're in to modern which seems to be the primary target of these buyers) I could see this being a big reason why.

As always I wish there was more vintage (and especially pre-war) but I still managed to find some things to add to the collection. I'd say vintage was maybe 5% of the show and prewar was (generously) 1%.

All in all I had a good time. Here's what I managed to pick up at the show:

[MyckKabongo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Here's the thins.....if the market was truly "hot", prices would be consistently rising across the board.

I've yet to see any real evidence of that.

Certain players are hot.....and there's a lot of minimally profitable or unprofitable flipping going on.....but the stock market is a lot hotter right now than the sports card market.

The only thing consistently rising is Fanatics product release prices....

The hobby has basically 3-4xed since 2019. Wax manufacturers successfully extracted most of the value in that growth.

The singles market is fine. It's actually absorbed a huge ramp in supply (wax supply, paralells, slab) while prices have hung steady. There's actually been a big increase in demand but its being met by the increase in supply, hence prices are flat or modestly increasing. Worth noting that many categories of rarer cards did go up permanently during tge xovid boom. Flat or modest increases in singles prices are fine fine--we lived this way for many years in the 2000s and 2010s.

People are overindexed on the Covid boom. That type of thing is generational. 80s-early 90s then 2016-2021. If you're waiting for another one might be late 2030s when all the pelicans boys are 40 year olds managing a fleet of AI agents and are overcome by a memetic wave of nostalgia for Sasha T videos, Bol Bol PSA 9s, T.J. Warren going off in the bubble, etc.

The market is quite hot in terms of volume thanks to repackers. Churn is crazy out there.

Actually making a significant profit in sports cards? Requires having skill, finding a niche, hard work or having a plug. Welcome back to how we lived 10 years ago!

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MyckKabongo

The hobby has basically 3-4xed since 2019. Wax manufacturers successfully extracted most of the value in that growth.

The singles market is fine. It's actually absorbed a huge ramp in supply (wax supply, paralells, slab) while prices have hung steady. There's actually been a big increase in demand but its being met by the increase in supply, hence prices are flat or modestly increasing. Worth noting that many categories of rarer cards did go up permanently during tge xovid boom. Flat or modest increases in singles prices are fine fine--we lived this way for many years in the 2000s and 2010s.

People are overindexed on the Covid boom. That type of thing is generational. 80s-early 90s then 2016-2021. If you're waiting for another one might be late 2030s when all the pelicans boys are 40 year olds managing a fleet of AI agents and are overcome by a memetic wave of nostalgia for Sasha T videos, Bol Bol PSA 9s, T.J. Warren going off in the bubble, etc.

The market is quite hot in terms of volume thanks to repackers. Churn is crazy out there.

Actually making a significant profit in sports cards? Requires having skill, finding a niche, hard work or having a plug. Welcome back to how we lived 10 years ago!

No doubt the degenerate gambling aspect is HOT!

Why else is the singles market getting propped up?

You need more fuel to feed the train!

[ThoseBackPages]

i wish there were certain singles i could find to buy