PITCHERS: Official Thread of the Hobby’s Outcast Position

[oddstuff]

Four starts no ER, four starts 1 ER and two starts with 2 ERs each...56 Ks / 12 walks / 36 hits given up. Still a small sample size, last 3 starts were pretty good vs playoff teams. Probably jinxed him.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Two strawmen;



Command and control do matter...if you throw hard. The guy who throws 10 MPH slower than Leiter with impeccable command/control is the ace of his men's league team.

First, it wasn't a strawman. It just wasn't directed at you. I was taking a shot at your pal, John, who claims "velocity is the ONLY thing that matters." So thanks for agreeing with me.

Second, you are still exaggerating. There are pitchers in the majors who throw 10 mph less than Leiter, who are still in the league and having success. So obviously, if command and control (along with other pitching factors such as deception, tunneling, movement, pitch philosophy, etc...) are good enough, a player can still find success. Yes, increased velocity, with all other things equal, would mean more success. But that wasn't your point. Nor mine.

You want to talk strawmen? How about picking a random number (10 mph slower) and using that cutoff to show how velocity is king and a good pitcher can't use other attributes to get hitters out. It's lazy. We all (except John) recognize there are other things about pitching that matter. We just disagree about the point where one is poor enough to be unable to be compensated for by the others. High velocity? There is still a point where even with it, you can't get hitters out if you have no command, control, movement, etc... That's a fact. Where is that point is where we seem to disagree. And on the flip side, poor velocity? There is a point where elite enough command, control, movement, etc... can overcome that and a pitcher can still have success. Where that point is is where we disagree.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I saw that Eury. It was tempting for sure. I think that card is tricky for a couple reasons. First, he's still under the radar after his TJ surgery. Then, its a redemption that expires in November. I believe there is an extension but some people might just be getting rid of them quickly because of the first reason. Were the Eury Real One's partially live?

I’m not sure, but I do know that you don’t see these around as much as you would think. The seller was willing to go down to $70, so it was an easy call for me.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

We all (except John) recognize there are other things about pitching that matter. We just disagree about the point where one is poor enough to be unable to be compensated for by the others.

i mean its pretty simple and we've both said it 100 times.

poor velocity / elite command = high school/ college
poor command / elite velocity = major league pitcher

avg velocity / great command = best case Jeffrey Springs? (lets not pretend Anddrew Abbot doesn't throw hard he does)

great velocity / avg command = mlb all star

takeaway = stop telling your kid don't worry about how hard you throw you need to learn how to pitch. just get them throwing as hard as possible and hope they figure out the other part

Lastly please don’t point out there are some pitchers that are effective at 93 or whatever. Yes Andrew abbot is legit and doesn’t light up radar Guns but he has previously touched 99 and if he figured out that sacraficing some velocity for movement/spin rate/control works for him then great but thag was all built upon a body of work that allowed him to throw 100. If his max velocity was 92 and then wanted to take something off to get sale results he’s be same pitcher he is now but throwing 87-88 and probably selling insurance


For example: let’s take Edward cabrera as an example and now let’s pretend the doesn’t throw a 4 seamer but just call his change up a fastball. He would top out like 93-95 and prob all still be in the big leagues

[johnlocke36]

I’m gonna use my high school as good example, we had very very good baseball teams.

Junior year had 2 absolute stud pitchers: one was absolute stud, 86-88 great movement great command and went and pitched somewhere.
Other stud touched upper 90s and went late 1st.
SS also had cannon and was ranked like best defensive ss in high school.
He made AA as a rp
after I graduated we had 2 more guys with truly elite velocity (both hit 100) and both made mlb all star teams.

So I came across 4 elite arms and the net result was a 1st rounder, AA and 2 mob all star teams. That’s an absurdly high ROI for the velocity matters crowd.

[theredmenace]

To counter that sample, the top 2 arms on my brother's travel team (including a #1 PG soph prospect) both washed out in the minors after multiple TJ surgeries. The number 3 pitcher on the team didn't touch 90 in high school, worked up to 92 in college, and then won a Cy Young lol.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

To counter that sample, the top 2 arms on my brother's travel team (including a #1 PG soph prospect) both washed out in the minors after multiple TJ surgeries. The number 3 pitcher on the team didn't touch 90 in high school, worked up to 92 in college, and then won a Cy Young lol.

I mean there are exceptions. I’m Gonna guess Shane Bieber (he’s from my current school district). If it is him and you can sit 93-94 with best curveball in the game then yes you are gonna find success.

But the example that two best arms on team both went on to play professional baseball kind of proves my point and career ending injiries is negative variance.

But this shows the floor for velocity is pro baseball, floor for command is high school gym teacher

I didn’t include summer ball samples because I’m biased and only guys I remember are the ones that made it obviously and was 20+ years ago. While it was a few years after I played for them hardest thrower from summer ball team/org was probably Kershaw fwiw

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

First, it wasn't a strawman. It just wasn't directed at you. I was taking a shot at your pal, John, who claims "velocity is the ONLY thing that matters." So thanks for agreeing with me.

Second, you are still exaggerating. There are pitchers in the majors who throw 10 mph less than Leiter, who are still in the league and having success. So obviously, if command and control (along with other pitching factors such as deception, tunneling, movement, pitch philosophy, etc...) are good enough, a player can still find success. Yes, increased velocity, with all other things equal, would mean more success. But that wasn't your point. Nor mine.

You want to talk strawmen? How about picking a random number (10 mph slower) and using that cutoff to show how velocity is king and a good pitcher can't use other attributes to get hitters out. It's lazy. We all (except John) recognize there are other things about pitching that matter. We just disagree about the point where one is poor enough to be unable to be compensated for by the others. High velocity? There is still a point where even with it, you can't get hitters out if you have no command, control, movement, etc... That's a fact. Where is that point is where we seem to disagree. And on the flip side, poor velocity? There is a point where elite enough command, control, movement, etc... can overcome that and a pitcher can still have success. Where that point is is where we disagree.

FYI, this list is three guys. One is Kyle Hendricks. I'd hardly call him having success. He's filler that is only allowed to pitch in the bigs because he was an ace ten years ago when he threw harder and the league threw softer. One is Rogers, the big lefty with the funky delivery. He is having sucess. The other is some dude I've never heard of with an ERA over 6 this year and negative career WAR.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by theredmenace

To counter that sample, the top 2 arms on my brother's travel team (including a #1 PG soph prospect) both washed out in the minors after multiple TJ surgeries. The number 3 pitcher on the team didn't touch 90 in high school, worked up to 92 in college, and then won a Cy Young lol.

Depends on how old you are. and how much more velo he added before his CYA. Heck, you could conceivably be talking about deGrom!

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

FYI, this list is three guys. One is Kyle Hendricks. I'd hardly call him having success. He's filler that is only allowed to pitch in the bigs because he was an ace ten years ago when he threw harder and the league threw softer. One is Rogers, the big lefty with the funky delivery. He is having sucess. The other is some dude I've never heard of with an ERA over 6 this year and negative career WAR.

I was thinking specifically of Brent Suter, as he sits around 88-89 most games with his fastball (although I have seen him get over 90 on occassion).

But my point is that even if one person is able to do it, it disproves your theory and provides proof that those other factors in pitching matter. And if they matter, there is a possibility that a pitcher can possess them at an elite enough level to account for lack of velocity.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I was thinking specifically of Brent Suter, as he sits around 88-89 most games with his fastball (although I have seen him get over 90 on occassion).

But my point is that even if one person is able to do it, it disproves your theory and provides proof that those other factors in pitching matter. And if they matter, there is a possibility that a pitcher can possess them at an elite enough level to account for lack of velocity.

Yes 2/500 people doing something claerly disproves a theory. Also you have no proof that Brent Suter even has good command. You are just assuming he does because his velocity sucks.

His "success" could easily be a product of something else as well (like having 20% less Induced Movement vs avg vs any pitcher in baseball) or it could also just be a bit of luck. Take 1000 guys that throw slow and 2-3 of them will have lucked out enough over few hundred innings to stay in the game

What proof do you have that his command is any better then some flamethrower to prove your point other then having an above average but not exceptional walk rat and a terrible chase rate

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I was thinking specifically of Brent Suter, as he sits around 88-89 most games with his fastball (although I have seen him get over 90 on occassion).

But my point is that even if one person is able to do it, it disproves your theory and provides proof that those other factors in pitching matter. And if they matter, there is a possibility that a pitcher can possess them at an elite enough level to account for lack of velocity.

I had to double check Suter. His sinker is coming in at 88.9 MPH, which is why he didn't make the list.

[rwperu34]

Trevor Rogers has been on my list for two consecutive years. He is quitely having a great season.

Another guy who jumps off the page for me right now is Chase Burns. I thought maybe the high ERA would have his price at a reasonable level, but nope. He's priced like a guy who has already won a CYA. Even if he slips in the offseason he'll be too expensive for my taste.

On that note, if everybody is healthy I would not want to face the Reds in a short series. Their bullpen kinda sucks, but I would not want to be facing Hunter Greene, Chase Burns, then the "soft" part of their rotation; Abbott, Lodolo, and Singer.

[green4407]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Yes 2/500 people doing something claerly disproves a theory. Also you have no proof that Brent Suter even has good command. You are just assuming he does because his velocity sucks.

His "success" could easily be a product of something else as well (like having 20% less Induced Movement vs avg vs any pitcher in baseball) or it could also just be a bit of luck. Take 1000 guys that throw slow and 2-3 of them will have lucked out enough over few hundred innings to stay in the game

If Clayton Kershaw was pitching today with that 89.0 mph fastball he'd be selling insurance.

Oh wait no, he did pitch today and so far this month is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA. 2 runs in 18 innings while only striking out 10 batters. Lucky sob.

[ScooterD]

Who here snagged the RED Topps Chrome Update Sapphire Eury RC for $60??

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Trevor Rogers has been on my list for two consecutive years. He is quitely having a great season.



Another guy who jumps off the page for me right now is Chase Burns. I thought maybe the high ERA would have his price at a reasonable level, but nope. He's priced like a guy who has already won a CYA. Even if he slips in the offseason he'll be too expensive for my taste.



On that note, if everybody is healthy I would not want to face the Reds in a short series. Their bullpen kinda sucks, but I would not want to be facing Hunter Greene, Chase Burns, then the "soft" part of their rotation; Abbott, Lodolo, and Singer.

Yeah, Burns has been plagued by the "big inning." He needs to clean that up, but if you remove the innings where he gives up 5 runs, or the 0.1 inning start, that ERA gets respectable.

Edit: Welp, just saw that Burns is on the IL with flexor strain. Ugh.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Who here snagged the RED Topps Chrome Update Sapphire Eury RC for $60??

Damn, WTH was that. There are comps closer to $1k. That's nuts. I see the Transcendent Red /5 end at $60 but nobody cares about those base cards. They must've used that.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Who here snagged the RED Topps Chrome Update Sapphire Eury RC for $60??

That… that… can’t be real…

If so, I’m heartbroken I missed it.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Damn, WTH was that. There are comps closer to $1k. That's nuts. I see the Transcendent Red /5 end at $60 but nobody cares about those base cards. They must've used that.

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

That… that… can’t be real…

If so, I’m heartbroken I missed it.

Right?!? Even if they left a zero off the end, it would have been a good buy (IMO)

[hammertime]

Man if Hunter Greene can ever stay healthy for a full season, look out.

[ScooterD]

Eury’s platinum rookie debut is on the market for anyone interested (not mine).

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Eury’s platinum rookie debut is on the market for anyone interested (not mine).

$60? I’m in for $60.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Man if Hunter Greene can ever stay healthy for a full season, look out.

I would love to see a season long battle between Greene and Skenes for the NL CY.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

The Ump has it out for Jesus tonight

[Spacenoid]

well, definitely regretting selling my Jonah Tong card a few weeks ago lol