Will any modern card outlast vintage prices?

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by dashcol

This is a good write up, I enjoyed reading it, thank you.

Its a fascinating topic and I love statistics.

Originally Posted by dashcol

I don’t want to compare basketball to baseball though, BK fans are insane sometimes and are normally the ones to pay insane price (look at Caitlyn Clark RC). BB almost seams SLIGHTLY more cautious.

I only brought up PMG's because they are condition sensitive, high pedigree and historically tough pulls in a high print environment.

A non parallel equivalent would maybe be the 93 SP Authentic Jeter in a PSA 10 which is around a $200k card but again the drop off from a 10 to a 9 is significant because of the amount of cards in existence. For modern Black parallels, 8s and 9s are still valuable because there are only 60-70 copies available regardless of condition.

Originally Posted by dashcol

The grading skew is a good point. However, there was a time where Randy Arozarena PSA 10 base cards were near $100, but now are nothing.

More because of Randy Arozarena than anything else. However, there are 4x as many 2020 Update cards per player than there was in 2011 Update. At 200k+ cards per player, it takes Ohtani/Judge like popularity to gain more value. You should look at what Randy Arozarena PSA 9's look like now.

Originally Posted by dashcol

There is something to say about career ending injuries in vintage not being a concern, but how many of these players are really on the same level as Ruth/Mantle/Robinson? Ohtani is a rarity.

Ohtani is a rarity. Followed closely by Judge. And yes, I do believe they are just as good (if not better) than both Ruth & Mantle. Time will tell.

Originally Posted by dashcol

But what about the people paying crazy prices for Nick Kurtz? Where is his ceiling honestly? David Parker? That means his cards should be equivalent to a 1974 PSA 8 (which is NM), those sell for $300. So, that should be a Nick Kurtz ceiling, not the $1600 that a PSA 10 BCA Nick Kurtz did on 7/26/25. What is that person really thinking they would gain from spending $1600 today on that card?

This is just speculative investing and it's repeated every single year with XX player. However, being the 1st to do something does have importance. The 1st Rookie to hit 4 HRs in a game is a feat not likely to be repeated. However, as time goes on, if he doesn't keep up, this stat will slowly simmer away along with his collectability.

Ohtani is a GLOBAL superstar. Not just for his play on the field, but also his personality and marketability shift him into another category all together. Judge has this in spades too.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

Its a fascinating topic and I love statistics.



I only brought up PMG's because they are condition sensitive, high pedigree and historically tough pulls in a high print environment.

A non parallel equivalent would maybe be the 93 SP Authentic Jeter in a PSA 10 which is around a $200k card but again the drop off from a 10 to a 9 is significant because of the amount of cards in existence. For modern Black parallels, 8s and 9s are still valuable because there are only 60-70 copies available regardless of condition.



More because of Randy Arozarena than anything else. However, there are 4x as many 2020 Update cards per player than there was in 2011 Update. At 200k+ cards per player, it takes Ohtani/Judge like popularity to gain more value. You should look at what Randy Arozarena PSA 9's look like now.



Ohtani is a rarity. Followed closely by Judge. And yes, I do believe they are just as good (if not better) than both Ruth & Mantle. Time will tell.



This is just speculative investing and it's repeated every single year with XX player. However, being the 1st to do something does have importance. The 1st Rookie to hit 4 HRs in a game is a feat not likely to be repeated. However, as time goes on, if he doesn't keep up, this stat will slowly simmer away along with his collectability.

Ohtani is a GLOBAL superstar. Not just for his play on the field, but also his personality and marketability shift him into another category all together. Judge has this in spades too.

All valid points. If we want to say someone is the first do something has accolades, what about Roger Maris? His rookie in a PSA 7 is $1200 (6/1/25). That would be a player with a first. So should the premier Kurtz RC be limited to around $1200 instead of the $1600 it did?

[corockies]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Yes, they are real. Don’t get me wrong, I do like modern cards as well as vintage, same as you. Maybe to not your level, but still enjoy both.

I say they are artificial, because what is different between the green parallel and the base? Nothing other than the color, and Topps saying there is only 99 of the green. Yes, there are traditionalist colors that will always go for more (gold, black, red, and even refractor/rainbow). Does that really mean that the card is on the same level as iconic cards just because it is a black of a mid end player?

How many mid end player vintage cards are commanding top tier prices unless it's tied directly to rarity? You'll always have the separation between super star tier and mid tier regardless of generation. It doesn't mean there won't be value in the mid tier - it's still there for the right collectors. It's easier to trend the market with the super star players because they get the most attention and drive what is trending.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Yes, they are real. Don’t get me wrong, I do like modern cards as well as vintage, same as you. Maybe to not your level, but still enjoy both.

I say they are artificial, because what is different between the green parallel and the base? Nothing other than the color, and Topps saying there is only 99 of the green. Yes, there are traditionalist colors that will always go for more (gold, black, red, and even refractor/rainbow). Does that really mean that the card is on the same level as iconic cards just because it is a black of a mid end player?

yea, i wouldnt put much stock into the lesser players regardless of what the parallel is.

The Hobby (and time) is a fickle bit&h as well. it is what it is for sure.

back in June i won the Matt Kemp 2017 BC Super PSA 9 for $114. only one in the world, Dodgers all time fav, runner up for 2011 NL MVP.

Thats just how it goes

[Tom Oates]

The first card that popped into my mind was 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson RC. I think that card among many others will stand the test of time.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Tom Oates

The first card that popped into my mind was 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson RC. I think that card among many others will stand the test of time.

hell yea!

pretty much the end of "old cards" with the end of Topps' first monopoly

[corockies]

Originally Posted by Tom Oates

The first card that popped into my mind was 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson RC. I think that card among many others will stand the test of time.

Most players pre-1990 have their "best" card directly tied to their RC. We're starting to see a recent trend where a player's "best" card isn't necessarily their RC. The Ken Griffey Jr. 1989 Upper Deck will always be his iconic RC, but is it really his "best" card? I don't think so when I see his Essential Credential sell for over $250k. All cards pre-serial #s tend to trend to a players RC as their "best" overall card to own.

[Mister2Bits]

Originally Posted by dashcol

All valid points. If we want to say someone is the first do something has accolades, what about Roger Maris? His rookie in a PSA 7 is $1200 (6/1/25). That would be a player with a first. So should the premier Kurtz RC be limited to around $1200 instead of the $1600 it did?

That's a whole different can of worms. Maris had plenty of issues preventing him from becoming a hobby superstar (less charismatic than mantle, was combative to media, not in the HOF, and his record came with an asterisk)

The goal of collecting is to be early, but what is the point of being early if you're buying an RC at a premium with a career worth of accolades already built in.

There are a lot of records out there. A 4HR game is not important enough to command long term growth.

[JWBlue]

Black only.

[Tom Oates]

Originally Posted by corockies

Most players pre-1990 have their "best" card directly tied to their RC. We're starting to see a recent trend where a player's "best" card isn't necessarily their RC. The Ken Griffey Jr. 1989 Upper Deck will always be his iconic RC, but is it really his "best" card? I don't think so when I see his Essential Credential sell for over $250k. All cards pre-serial #s tend to trend to a players RC as their "best" overall card to own.

Agreed, based on aesthetics, I would rather have his Crusade green.

[StlBen]

People saying numbered cards are artificially rare, but high numbered vintage stuff isn't artificially rare?
Like they may not have x/500 on them, but high numbered cards from many years command a premium because Topps made less of them. Do we think people want to spend thousands of dollars on a Bob Schultz rookie....or is it jsut because it was artificially rare?

[dfenno]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

all those vintage cards you listed are available to buy on eBay 24/7
it just a matter of paying for it, or being tied to a particular assigned grade

now, try to find some of the Topps Blacks that are "only" 22 years old now. Good luck.

I think the lack of “liquidity” in Topps Black will eventually drive more demand for and interest in Topps Flagship Gold. While 2,000 copies may seem like a lot at issue, it’s actually very little for a HOF player everyone wants to own. With 2,000 copies, there will always be some available. There will always be recent sales comps.

Topps Black will obviously sell for more, but key cards could go years without being offered for sale, let alone sold. It canÂ’t be the center of attention if it never trades.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Very true. But, in that same case if you had $70k to spend on a card, do you buy the 52 Mantle, or the black Posey?

Well....I'm a Giants fan, so definitely the Posey....

You also have to keep in mind that many of the top vintage cards have been "reprinted" to the moon, in that they have been part of many insert sets/parallels, etc.

There are probably 15-20 different "modern" Mantle insert cards that feature the exact same image as the 1952 Mantle.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by corockies

How many mid end player vintage cards are commanding top tier prices unless it's tied directly to rarity? You'll always have the separation between super star tier and mid tier regardless of generation. It doesn't mean there won't be value in the mid tier - it's still there for the right collectors. It's easier to trend the market with the super star players because they get the most attention and drive what is trending.

Very true. How many modern mid level tier players are commanding thousands though?

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

yea, i wouldnt put much stock into the lesser players regardless of what the parallel is.

The Hobby (and time) is a fickle bit&h as well. it is what it is for sure.

back in June i won the Matt Kemp 2017 BC Super PSA 9 for $114. only one in the world, Dodgers all time fav, runner up for 2011 NL MVP.

Thats just how it goes

This sums it up. Matt Kemp super for $114. In 2018-19 how much would that have been.

Kind of along the lines of what I was saying, this card at $114 is a great buy. This card at $1400 is a horrible long term buy for a clector. Just wait it out and true clectors can get a great card for a tenth of the price.

Yes, we would miss out on getting Harper for $100 instead of $15k, but most times it would be a win.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Tom Oates

The first card that popped into my mind was 1980 Topps Rickey Henderson RC. I think that card among many others will stand the test of time.

Absolutely. This would be one that will stand the test.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

That's a whole different can of worms. Maris had plenty of issues preventing him from becoming a hobby superstar (less charismatic than mantle, was combative to media, not in the HOF, and his record came with an asterisk)

The goal of collecting is to be early, but what is the point of being early if you're buying an RC at a premium with a career worth of accolades already built in.

There are a lot of records out there. A 4HR game is not important enough to command long term growth.

Is that the goal of collecting, or the goal of investing? To me those are two different things.

As a collector, I can wait a few years to get what I want, instead of paying the high prices when the player does something spectacular, alla Nick Kurtz.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Well....I'm a Giants fan, so definitely the Posey....

You also have to keep in mind that many of the top vintage cards have been "reprinted" to the moon, in that they have been part of many insert sets/parallels, etc.

There are probably 15-20 different "modern" Mantle insert cards that feature the exact same image as the 1952 Mantle.

Reprints do need to be taken into consideration. Getting the 96 reprint of the Mantle Topps RC is a good conselation, but most collectors will still want to get that original 52, instead of the reprint.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

yea, i wouldnt put much stock into the lesser players regardless of what the parallel is.

The Hobby (and time) is a fickle bit&h as well. it is what it is for sure.

back in June i won the Matt Kemp 2017 BC Super PSA 9 for $114. only one in the world, Dodgers all time fav, runner up for 2011 NL MVP.

Thats just how it goes

Lesser players can still do well if they make it into the Hall of Fame. Let's say Jon Lester gets in eventually - he has a 2006 Topps Update Black RC /55. I can see a large jump in prices for this particular card because of his induction and continued upward trend because demand will always exceed supply.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by corockies

Lesser players can still do well if they make it into the Hall of Fame. Let's say Jon Lester gets in eventually - he has a 2006 Topps Update Black RC /55. I can see a large jump in prices for this particular card because of his induction and continued upward trend because demand will always exceed supply.

yea, i could see that happening for sure

[livfreely]

Look at Michael Jordan. He is better than the vintage cards before.

LeBrons cards will hold value, and only get stronger as time goes on.

Ohtani AND Judge both have that opportunity. Obviously Judge has a much harder path to achieve this status than Ohtani.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FatboyWu]

Originally Posted by dfenno

I think the lack of “liquidity” in Topps Black will eventually drive more demand for and interest in Topps Flagship Gold. While 2,000 copies may seem like a lot at issue, it’s actually very little for a HOF player everyone wants to own. With 2,000 copies, there will always be some available. There will always be recent sales comps.

Topps Black will obviously sell for more, but key cards could go years without being offered for sale, let alone sold. It canÂ’t be the center of attention if it never trades.

As a fellow gold collector, I agree. They're scarcer but not unobtainable for the average collector. I think most collectors can't spend thousands on parallels and while some golds can get expensive they can be in most collectors ballpark.

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

hell yea!

pretty much the end of "old cards" with the end of Topps' first monopoly

Great point....thinking about it, I think '85 Topps was the beginning of the end before the junk era started.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by FatboyWu

As a fellow gold collector, I agree. They're scarcer but not unobtainable for the average collector. I think most collectors can't spend thousands on parallels and while some golds can get expensive they can be in most collectors ballpark.

Golds are a good example of what may be equivalent to vintage. Limited, but not limited enough to be unobtainable.

Originally Posted by PDCCollectibles

Great point....thinking about it, I think '85 Topps was the beginning of the end before the junk era started.

1985 would be the last of them, but most of the best cards from 1985 (Puckett, Clemens) were in 1984, so their 85 cards are not the go to.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by FatboyWu

As a fellow gold collector, I agree. They're scarcer but not unobtainable for the average collector. I think most collectors can't spend thousands on parallels and while some golds can get expensive they can be in most collectors ballpark.

I have a rule I follow that resembles this line of thought. I tell myself would you rather have 1 card worth $500 or 10 cards worth $50 each. The 10 cards is much more appealing because you have a larger market to sell to at the lower price point. Topps golds fit into this criteria perfectly.