2024 GPK Battle of the Bands - Green Day

[bub838]

Originally Posted by orion9578

Math must not be your strong suit.

$112.62 - 14%(eBay fees) = $96.85 - $80(cost) = $16.85 x 34 = $572.90 - supplies + time = they didn't make all that much.

I guess when the seller gets the product for free the profit is really strong.

[orion9578]

Originally Posted by bub838

I guess when the seller gets the product for free the profit is really strong.

They seemingly have a deal with eBay as well, where they pay 0% in fees

[dunquixote1]

I mean I’m not going to die on the hill that I think this product doesn’t have a ton of room to grow. But there’s available boxes for under $110 shipped. That’s barely above cost on this if you purchased it as MSRP (factoring fees and shipping). And even then, there’s not a ton of “sold” product which is usually indicative of demand. GPK 40th didn’t ‘creep up’ per se. It was selling for a decent amount over MSRP right away and volume was moving.

I’m a tad blown away by the math regarding auto pulls though. If they’re actually 1 auto per 2 cases on average, this has potential once some get ripped on some streams and people see it. But as it stands now, this is a huge gamble to speculate on at $80/box. JMO.

[LondonGames]

Originally Posted by dunquixote1

I mean I’m not going to die on the hill that I think this product doesn’t have a ton of room to grow. But there’s available boxes for under $110 shipped. That’s barely above cost on this if you purchased it as MSRP (factoring fees and shipping). And even then, there’s not a ton of “sold” product which is usually indicative of demand. GPK 40th didn’t ‘creep up’ per se. It was selling for a decent amount over MSRP right away and volume was moving.

I’m a tad blown away by the math regarding auto pulls though. If they’re actually 1 auto per 2 cases on average, this has potential once some get ripped on some streams and people see it. But as it stands now, this is a huge gamble to speculate on at $80/box. JMO.

This is why I wrote earlier to take the gamble now. You can basically get boxes at cost. Looking at sales on eBay isn't accurate for what you can buy boxes for. Almost every single seller, you can find somewhere else and get the boxes for whatever eBay prices are minus fees. That is why most websites that have them for sale are under eBay too, which is a more accurate reflection of what boxes cost. They are selling damn near cost and if and when the yield turns out to be an Autograph in every 2 cases, it'll be minimum $150 a box. There's just about 0 chance that people won't spend a 1 in 40 chance at $150 each to get an Autographed card when all of the rest of the hits and base cards are strong enough. Right now it's effectively $80-90 a box. It's only that way because there are no odds and being left in the dark, no one is going to take a chance. Most of the hobby including many in this very thread are scalpers. Scalpers need guarantees. Let me say though, my advice only applies to people who think that the Autographs will be at that yield. If they are actually somewhat impossible (1 in 10 cases), the needle might not move at all. But products are always driven by the chase no matter what, and the chase here is as strong as it gets. Just look at the Topps Now cards that have insane chases and how much product it moves.

P.S. I don't think the "math" provided earlier in the thread regarding 1 card shop getting 1 case versus 2 holds any water. That is leap one, then leap number 2 that theres roughly 600 total signatures? Incoherent nonsense. You'd be left with 1310 cases produced. Completely illogical.

[LondonGames]

Originally Posted by tevans333

None of this really matters until the odds are out. The box prices will adjust accordingly once the market knows how hard it will be or wont be to pull an auto.

precisely. it's all basically still in the pre-sale completely left in the dark mode. nothing has or should've changed yet.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by LondonGames

P.S. I don't think the "math" provided earlier in the thread regarding 1 card shop getting 1 case versus 2 holds any water. That is leap one, then leap number 2 that theres roughly 600 total signatures? Incoherent nonsense. You'd be left with 1310 cases produced. Completely illogical.

The math of 1300 cases, would be based on the 40th Anniversary having 2600 cases and the Green Day having 20 boxes per case whereas 40th Anniversary only had 10 boxes per case. In a way, it might make sense for a shop to only get one case vs. two since there is twice the number of boxes in each case. They would still get the same amount of product.

The other key difference is that Green Day has 10 packs per box rather than 8 that 40th Anniversary had.

What does this all mean? Absolutely nothing, it is pure speculation until the odds hit. All I know is i am opening all 50 boxes coming my way -- clearly I like to light money on fire.

[Bruin7]

Why do people think $80 is the “cost”? Big guys like BO & DA have a different cost than the assumed $80 due to the shear volume. I guarantee you they don’t pay that. I’ve seen Fish on his way to Topps to pay for product in cash before.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

Why do people think $80 is the “cost”? Big guys like BO & DA have a different cost than the assumed $80 due to the shear volume. I guarantee you they don’t pay that. I’ve seen Fish on his way to Topps to pay for product in cash before.

Nobody thinks $80 is the cost to distribution, some hooby shops, or the cost of the manufacturers. Indeed, it is the cost, more specifically the cost basis for most eBay resellers and others who bought directly from Topps on the presale.

[StlBen]

Originally Posted by bub838

“Boxes are selling for $129”
Here’s the prices they’re actually selling for.

“sold 34 boxes at $110 each, making him waht $3k off this product already”

You can just as easily screen shot boxes that have sold for $129, this seller has sold 2 at that price: https://www.ebay.com/itm/205663676555?

But overall I don't really care where the prices are I can't wait to open my boxes. Everyone in here just does a great job of being a constant Debby Downer...

[LondonGames]

Originally Posted by Bruin7

Why do people think $80 is the “cost”? Big guys like BO & DA have a different cost than the assumed $80 due to the shear volume. I guarantee you they don’t pay that. I’ve seen Fish on his way to Topps to pay for product in cash before.

Where are you seeing this? Haven't seen any1 say that. Perhaps you can show someone saying that the direct cost was $80.

To my knowledge I'm the only person who referred to an $80 cost, and that was what it cost these flippers to flip em.

$80-90 is effectively what it will cost someone to buy them right now if they go to these flippers and get them to sell them for minus the eBay fees. Again, looking at the other sites that have them versus eBay, is more realistic for what the product currently costs. Think you just read the worst cost and didn't realize its also just a word. The discussion was what it would cost you right now if you wanted to buy them... versus what they will cost when odds drop and boxes are opened.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by LondonGames

Where are you seeing this? Haven't seen any1 say that. Perhaps you can show someone saying that the direct cost was $80.

To my knowledge I'm the only person who referred to an $80 cost, and that was what it cost these flippers to flip em.

$80-90 is effectively what it will cost someone to buy them right now if they go to these flippers and get them to sell them for minus the eBay fees. Again, looking at the other sites that have them versus eBay, is more realistic for what the product currently costs. Think you just read the worst cost and didn't realize its also just a word. The discussion was what it would cost you right now if you wanted to buy them... versus what they will cost when odds drop and boxes are opened.

Forgive him, he went to a state school.

[dunquixote1]

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

Forgive him, he went to a state school.

He’s maybe the most condescending person I’ve ever come across on here. It’s so bizarre people fill voids in their life through a trading card message board.

[tevans333]

Looks like there will be a maximum of 1861 cases. That's based on the guarantee of 2 numbered parallels per box. (I'm not going to include numbered relics or autos in this since those numbers will be small enough that they wont move the needle much).

We know that there are a total of 74,448 numbered parallels.

Set size
Base 100
Album art 14
B-Sides 16
Battle of the Bands 6
Dookie 30 Years 8
Sweet Children 8
Tribute to East Bay 8

Each of these have 464 numbered parallels
Black /199
Blue /99 Green Foil /75
Gold Crumpled Foil /50
Orange Foil /35
Black Shimmer /10
Red Foil /5
Foil Fractor /1

Set Size
American Idiot 6
Standing Room Only 7

Each of these have 16 numbered parallels
Black Shimmer Foil /10
Red Foil /5
Foil Fractor /1

74,448 numberer parallels at 2 per box makes 1,861 cases
74,448 / 2 = 37,224 boxes
37,224 / 20 = 1,861 cases

Guess what you will for total number of autos and dive 1,861 by that number to get how many cases per auto. I guessed 600 autos (which based on the confirmed parallels and filling out even a small amount for the unknowns, it's easy to reach 600), so that yields 1 per 3 cases.

I got to that by the auto checklist
Autos Single 3
Auto Triplet 1 (numbered /25 and /1)
Auto American Idiot Triplet 1 (/5 and /1)
Auto Relics 6
Auto Triplet Relic 2

[LondonGames]

Originally Posted by tevans333

Looks like there will be a maximum of 1861 cases. That's based on the guarantee of 2 numbered parallels per box. (I'm not going to include numbered relics or autos in this since those numbers will be small enough that they wont move the needle much).

We know that there are a total of 74,448 numbered parallels.

Set size
Base 100
Album art 14
B-Sides 16
Battle of the Bands 6
Dookie 30 Years 8
Sweet Children 8
Tribute to East Bay 8

Each of these have 464 numbered parallels
Black /199
Blue /99 Green Foil /75
Gold Crumpled Foil /50
Orange Foil /35
Black Shimmer /10
Red Foil /5
Foil Fractor /1

Set Size
American Idiot 6
Standing Room Only 7

Each of these have 16 numbered parallels
Black Shimmer Foil /10
Red Foil /5
Foil Fractor /1

74,448 numberer parallels at 2 per box makes 1,861 cases
74,448 / 2 = 37,224 boxes
37,224 / 20 = 1,861 cases

Guess what you will for total number of autos and dive 1,861 by that number to get how many cases per auto. I guessed 600 autos (which based on the confirmed parallels and filling out even a small amount for the unknowns, it's easy to reach 600), so that yields 1 per 3 cases.

I got to that by the auto checklist
Autos Single 3
Auto Triplet 1 (numbered /25 and /1)
Auto American Idiot Triplet 1 (/5 and /1)
Auto Relics 6
Auto Triplet Relic 2

Great work! Thank you! Might be wishful thinking but with the different signature Variations and with the triple being as high as it is, I'm guessing roughly 500 per (1500 total). Would be more than happy with 600 total.

[tevans333]

Originally Posted by LondonGames

Great work! Thank you! Might be wishful thinking but with the different signature Variations and with the triple being as high as it is, I'm guessing roughly 500 per (1500 total). Would be more than happy with 600 total.

1500 would put it at a little over one per case, I’d take that all day long. I always try to guesstimate overly conservative. That way if I’m happy at what I consider a conservative value, I won’t be disappointed most of the time. So 300 each with a small percentage held back would still yield almost 1 per 2 cases, which I’d be good with.

[eastbayak]

8 days away from release date!

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

8 days away from release date!

I'm excited, it is going to be a wild run into Labor Day weekend!

[nephinfan]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

8 days away from release date!

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

I'm excited, it is going to be a wild run into Labor Day weekend!

This release was the first thing I thought of when I looked at the calendar today! One week away!!

[peterose4hof]

I ordered 4 boxes and a case. Can't wait to open the 4 boxes!

Then I will decide what to do with the case.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

I'm excited, it is going to be a wild run into Labor Day weekend!

Originally Posted by nephinfan

This release was the first thing I thought of when I looked at the calendar today! One week away!!

Originally Posted by peterose4hof

I ordered 4 boxes and a case. Can't wait to open the 4 boxes!

Then I will decide what to do with the case.

Looking forward to your respective break results (I'll be sure to share mine)!

Best of luck with the rips too

[LondonGames]

So Topps is likely to ship this out on Monday the 25th for pre-orders to receive on release day?

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by LondonGames

So Topps is likely to ship this out on Monday the 25th for pre-orders to receive on release day?

My boxes/case have already been shipped out (arrives on Monday per tracking).

[kakarot12]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

My boxes/case have already been shipped out (arrives on Monday per tracking).

Mine too.

[LondonGames]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

My boxes/case have already been shipped out (arrives on Monday per tracking).

Wow, nice. I purchased immediately upon release and mine didn't ship. Guess they just roll the dice.

[nephinfan]

All of mine still show processing, but congrats to you guys!