📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I would like an explanation on how lower rates will help the middle class in whatever context you were thinking of.

The issue is just not understanding how US financial markets work. Most people don’t and I’ll at least give him credit because he’s from the EU

People see headlines about “rates” but don’t even know what rates are in the context of the thing they’re applying it to

[Blazed]

Lower fed fund rates free up cash for middle class households

While sports cards are not directly tied to fed policy they can respond indirectly through increased disposable income which can lift auction prices and online sales volumes

Because as you know, when people have a little extra cash, they try their best to spend it

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Lower fed fund rates free up cash for middle class households

While sports cards are not directly tied to fed policy they can respond indirectly through increased disposable income which can lift auction prices and online sales volumes

Because as you know, when people have a little extra cash, they try their best to spend it

Can you articulate how.

How does the overnight bank lending rate lead to more disposable income

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Can you articulate how.

How does the overnight bank lending rate lead to more disposable income

Lower rates reduce monthly payments on variable rate debts

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Lower rates reduce monthly payments on variable rate debts

It's hard to find an exact number but roughly single digit percentage of mortgages are variable rate (ARM, HELOC... etc)

Credit cards, which are the biggest variable debt and mostly held by the "middle class" (middle class means different things to different people so that's just a really wide range)... are Prime + some fixed rate.

Only the prime rate in that equation would move relative to whatever the fed funds cut was so in this case .25%. That's so minimal there would essentially be no impact on your spending.

AND that's not to mention any yield instrument they are holding also goes down so any minimal impact on variable rate debt payments is somewhat offset by lower yields on cash.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I would like an explanation on how lower rates will help the middle class in whatever context you were thinking of.

Based on your comments in this forum I’m pretty sure you have an idea yourself, but I’m always happy to educate people that ask nicely.

Here are couple results that can be expected from lowering rates:
1) Lower Borrowing Costs for Housing and Debt - Middle class is more impacted by this than low or high class.
2) Stimulating Job Creation and Wage Growth - again middle class is most impacted.
3) Boosting Consumer Spending and Economic Activity - more money on circulation creates more opportunities for middle class.

Obviously there is no direct overnight result, but 2026-27 the macro outlooks are great for middle class. What the rate cuts also means is that the inflation is under control and the increased pressure of higher living costs are less of a worry and with increased lending the wages will catch up. Everything takes time and nothing happens overnight, other than maybe increased consumer confidence. I personally know many middle class people who stopped buying cards totally at some point, not because they don’t want to participate anymore, but because of the fear of increasing living costs and loan payments.

Anyway I’m sure you agree that middle class has been crushed over the past couple of years, what in your opinion needs to happen for middle class to thrive again and have exposable income and consumer confidence again?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Torro

Based on your comments in this forum I’m pretty sure you have an idea yourself, but I’m always happy to educate people that ask nicely.

Here are couple results that can be expected from lowering rates:
1) Lower Borrowing Costs for Housing and Debt - Middle class is more impacted by this than low or high class.
2) Stimulating Job Creation and Wage Growth - again middle class is most impacted.
3) Boosting Consumer Spending and Economic Activity - more money on circulation creates more opportunities for middle class.

Obviously there is no direct overnight result, but 2026-27 the macro outlooks are great for middle class. What the rate cuts also means is that the inflation is under control and the increased pressure of higher living costs are less of a worry and with increased lending the wages will catch up. Everything takes time and nothing happens overnight, other than maybe increased consumer confidence. I personally know many middle class people who stopped buying cards totally at some point, not because they don’t want to participate anymore, but because of the fear of increasing living costs and loan payments.

Anyway I’m sure you agree that middle class has been crushed over the past couple of years, what in your opinion needs to happen for middle class to thrive again and have exposable income and consumer confidence again?

does it? This sounds like a random textbook quote.

The Fed is not cutting rates for this reason, they have a dual mandate

[Torro]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

does it? This sounds like a random textbook quote.

The Fed is not cutting rates for this reason, they have a dual mandate

The high end market is thriving, what would it take for low/mid end to follow (increased demand), I would think the following will contribute to that part of sports cards market:

1) Rising Middle-Class Disposable Income and Reduced Cost-of-Living Pressures
2) Continued Decline in Interest Rates and Supportive Monetary Policy
3) Stable, Moderate Inflation as a Hedge Without Erosion
4) Overall Economic Stability and Confidence, with Reduced Inequality

The conclusion I made in the first post about middle class getting back on their feet was just a shorter more straight forward statement (general public has pretty good understanding on this, I was expecting that people in this forum who talk about stocks have some level of understanding without further explanation.

[discodanman45]

Glad everyone here is so optimistic! I am glad that I am not entering the workforce and renting right now. Worse, trying to buy a house.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

It's hard to find an exact number but roughly single digit percentage of mortgages are variable rate (ARM, HELOC... etc)

Credit cards, which are the biggest variable debt and mostly held by the "middle class" (middle class means different things to different people so that's just a really wide range)... are Prime + some fixed rate.

Only the prime rate in that equation would move relative to whatever the fed funds cut was so in this case .25%. That's so minimal there would essentially be no impact on your spending.

AND that's not to mention any yield instrument they are holding also goes down so any minimal impact on variable rate debt payments is somewhat offset by lower yields on cash.

Doesn't matter how minimal, it's "boosting" peoples spending power

$25 is $25 they didn't have before. Multiply that by however many people collect cards and it will have an impact on prices

It also makes loans cheaper for people who like to fund card purchases allowing them to make bigger purchases outside their means $1k+ or $10k+

[oldgoldy97]

More money means more demand.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

More money means more demand.

Mo Money Mo Problems

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Doesn't matter how minimal, it's "boosting" peoples spending power

$25 is $25 they didn't have before. Multiply that by however many people collect cards and it will have an impact on prices

It also makes loans cheaper for people who like to fund card purchases allowing them to make bigger purchases outside their means $1k+ or $10k+

We're talking a marginal amount of spending power increase, cards would have to be the most important thing in their life if an extra $25 is going straight to that when they're paying high interest credit card debt.

[jcardstore]

The market is so bad right now people are just desperate they will grasp at any tiny straw to say the market is headed up now lol

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Mo Money Mo Problems

I keep track of your exploits. It’s mo money no problems.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

The market is so bad right now people are just desperate they will grasp at any tiny straw to say the market is headed up now lol

The market is so bad right now? Are you talking about basketball cards or what market?

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Torro

The market is so bad right now? Are you talking about basketball cards or what market?

It's a generalization but I'm sure you've got some hyper specific niche that's doing well to tell me about

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

It's a generalization but I'm sure you've got some hyper specific niche that's doing well to tell me about

Generalization of what? Answer his question, as I am curious to your response as well. Pretty much every market I see is at or near all time highs.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Generalization of what? Answer his question, as I am curious to your response as well. Pretty much every market I see is at or near all time highs.

Pick a rookie card from any player in the last 20 years and just look at a chart from Covid peak to today. Down and to the left,

I already know you’re going to tell me about rare 90s inserts and Jordan and high end. So you can save that

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Pick a rookie card from any player in the last 20 years and just look at a chart from Covid peak to today. Down and to the left,

I already know you’re going to tell me about rare 90s inserts and Jordan and high end. So you can save that

Ah, I see. "COVID peak" comparisons.

I'm not defending any rookie card prices on the up or down side, but to compare any price today to the frenzy during COVID is ridiculous. Even with that being said, 99% of all rookie cards across all sports trend down over time. That has nothing to do with how hot or cold the overall market is. They will almost all trend down in a bull market or a bear market when you are looking at years.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

I keep track of your exploits. It’s mo money no problems.

One of us should!

No money mo problems.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

We're talking a marginal amount of spending power increase, cards would have to be the most important thing in their life if an extra $25 is going straight to that when they're paying high interest credit card debt.

You're being too literal but I think you got the point

And it's almost 100% guaranteed less than 2% of the people who can't afford to be purchasing $1k+ cards on credit considered the 29% APR before making said purchase

Instant gratification and worry about how to pay for it later

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

One of us should!

No money mo problems.

For east bay, it’s “no money, no problem!”

He just needs to slowly leak his armament of hoarded infant formula from the pandemic onto the new mother’s nursing message boards and viola!

Instant cashz!

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Ah, I see. "COVID peak" comparisons.

I'm not defending any rookie card prices on the up or down side, but to compare any price today to the frenzy during COVID is ridiculous. Even with that being said, 99% of all rookie cards across all sports trend down over time. That has nothing to do with how hot or cold the overall market is. They will almost all trend down in a bull market or a bear market when you are looking at years.

Ok but why would you not compare prices to the most recent peak? That literally determines whether the market is up or down lol.

If it’s not setting ATHs the market isn’t going up. It’s not a hard concept

Lower highs and lower lows for 99% of cards with random pumps in between.

[yiguiri2002]

Isn't there a lot of room between "market is really bad" and "it's not setting all-time highs"?