📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Isn't there a lot of room between "market is really bad" and "it's not setting all-time highs"?

no sir. this is a wendys.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Torro

Anyway I’m sure you agree that middle class has been crushed over the past couple of years, what in your opinion needs to happen for middle class to thrive again and have exposable income and consumer confidence again?

My opinion is there is no middle class. You’re an asset owner or you’re not. If you’re not, the best you’ll do going forward is tread water. I’m not even sure I’d consider a house an asset anymore. It’s a place to live in that shelters you from skyrocketing housing costs until you either downsize or can’t afford the property taxes and insurance anymore. Leading up to that, most people have probably refinanced so many times they have little equity anyway.

Asset owners will continue to outpace everyone else, regardless of financial conditions. Lower rate environments provide marginal benefit to the poor and middle class. If you want proof, all you have to do is look at the ZIRP era.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Torro

Anyway I’m sure you agree that middle class has been crushed over the past couple of years, what in your opinion needs to happen for middle class to thrive again and have exposable income and consumer confidence again?

The middle class has been getting crushed for the better part of 45 years (i.e. since Reagan).

What needs to happen? Wages need to rise significantly for starters. Then add in reduced health care expenditures, lower housing costs, etc.

Heck the national minimum wage is still $7.25 an hour.....that's $14,500 a year for someone working a full 2000 hours a year (40 hours a week for 50 weeks). For comparison, the poverty line is $15,650 a year.....which means that someone working full time at minimum wage is in poverty. Think about that....

I'm always flabbergasted when I read about union members voting for anti-union Republicans who would like nothing more than to reduce their wages.

[imbluestreak23]

I hope that those reading this board aren't getting sucked into the Fox news anti Jerome Powell propaganda.

High rates are doing the best thing possible to the housing market. It's called KILLING demand.

Every broccoli hair jesus piece 18 y/o trust fund baby wants to be a real estate bro because it's hip/cool and who wants to work amirite? 10 year speculative bubble, high rates KILLS that speculation. We need high rates for decades to return housing prices back to normal...or at a minimum, keep housing prices static such that inflation eventually catches up to normal trend.

Everyone should be cheering for this, including me, who will probably be entering the housing market in the next 12-24 months.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I hope that those reading this board aren't getting sucked into the Fox news anti Jerome Powell propaganda.

High rates are doing the best thing possible to the housing market. It's called KILLING demand.

Every broccoli hair jesus piece 18 y/o trust fund baby wants to be a real estate bro because it's hip/cool and who wants to work amirite? 10 year speculative bubble, high rates KILLS that speculation. We need high rates for decades to return housing prices back to normal...or at a minimum, keep housing prices static such that inflation eventually catches up to normal trend.

Everyone should be cheering for this, including me, who will probably be entering the housing market in the next 12-24 months.

Rates are irrelevant to house pricing. Prices will rise regardless. You might get some markets where you see a short term decline thanks to geographic migration or regional specific job losses. But that’s about it. If you can’t afford a home today, you won’t be able to afford when rates are 4% either.

This is why you must be pouring every spare dollar possible into assets. 20%+ of your post-tax pay should be invested. And that’s on top of the pre- and post-tax money that’s going toward retirement.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Rates are irrelevant to house pricing. Prices will rise regardless. You might get some markets where you see a short term decline thanks to geographic migration or regional specific job losses. But that’s about it. If you can’t afford a home today, you won’t be able to afford when rates are 4% either.

This is why you must be pouring every spare dollar possible into assets. 20%+ of your post-tax pay should be invested. And that’s on top of the pre- and post-tax money that’s going toward retirement.

Equities are going to appreciate at a faster rate than housing.

Housing had there speculative bubble. 20% downpayment on property appreciating 2% = 10% return, which is SP500. I see regional 2% price appreciation in the northeast, I don't see any price appreciation in markets that shot up in the most in the covid bubble.

The hate on Jerome Powell is insane. If he does what Trump wants, those homes skyrocket in value and the rich keep getting richer.

[anusinha]

The bottom 50% of the population doesnt matter, really with respect to the card industry, its only the top 20% of the population that matters. That group has at least 1 million in net worth and is 70 million people strong, more than enough to buy up all of the fancy new cards.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by anusinha

The bottom 50% of the population doesnt matter, really with respect to the card industry, its only the top 20% of the population that matters. That group has at least 1 million in net worth and is 70 million people strong, more than enough to buy up all of the fancy new cards.

Every other BO member (1 in 2) is a millionaire according to a recent baseball section poll.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

It's a generalization but I'm sure you've got some hyper specific niche that's doing well to tell me about

Nothing niche and special, just MJ and Kobe cards and some high end sets. There was just a couple page ago a guy in this thread who stated that the market is red hot and he has been selling heavy profiting huge money from cards he just bought last year. Check the fanatics weekly auctions, all time highs across the board. It’s rather that some niche things have not been doing well (things like ultra modern low end and no name rookies for example - areas where people got burned heavy in the Covid time). MJ market is at all time highs (some stuff is 20x from prices just 1-2 years ago).

In short the cards that are being collected not the speculative cards.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

My opinion is there is no middle class. You’re an asset owner or you’re not. If you’re not, the best you’ll do going forward is tread water. I’m not even sure I’d consider a house an asset anymore. It’s a place to live in that shelters you from skyrocketing housing costs until you either downsize or can’t afford the property taxes and insurance anymore. Leading up to that, most people have probably refinanced so many times they have little equity anyway.

Asset owners will continue to outpace everyone else, regardless of financial conditions. Lower rate environments provide marginal benefit to the poor and middle class. If you want proof, all you have to do is look at the ZIRP era.

Wow your explanation is the peak of capitalism, I’m sure you are old person that has accumulated assets in your lifetime and it’s fine by you. But what about the young people who are not from rich families, but they are working on their masters or even PhD, haven’t been able to earn money to buy any assets yet, they all low class right? IMO middle class is the majority of people, they have a degree and work as specialist or mid level managers, they depend heavily on the living cost / wages growth ratio, they likely have or are planning to purchase real estate with loan, some might had some assets like stocks or crypto couple years ago but had to sell over the past years (or at least have not been continuing to invest) to keep up with living costs. All together they are educated hard working people that keep the economy going - or you would classify them all as low class?

[Torro]

Originally Posted by anusinha

The bottom 50% of the population doesnt matter, really with respect to the card industry, its only the top 20% of the population that matters. That group has at least 1 million in net worth and is 70 million people strong, more than enough to buy up all of the fancy new cards.

Why are you so USA centric, it’s not NFL, basketball is a global sport and the collector bases have rapidly been growing in Europe and Asia (still a lot of room for growth), hoping that Fanatics will be focusing more on global expansion than US market. And yes there are a lot of rich people outside of USA

In China there are more people playing basketball than the total population of USA, China has been catching up with USA in terms of economy, and will likely take over in the near future. The Europe has been the fastest growing market for NBA (European players have also been taking over the NBA), here are some stats about the NBA viewership growth in Europe:

Europe (Fastest-Growing Region Overall):
• +15% annual growth in League Pass subscriptions (2020–2025).
• NBA Europe YouTube views: +220% in viewing time (2023–2025).
• Country Highlights:
• France: +177% viewership since Victor Wembanyama’s 2023 draft.
• Serbia: Tripled streaming numbers (or +66% for Finals tune-ins) since Nikola Jokić’s MVPs (2019–2025).
• Slovenia: +49% surge tied to Luka Dončić.
• Greece: +50% subscriptions post-Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 2021 championship.
• Spain: +25% this season (2024/25).
• Turkey: +41% League Pass growth (2023–2025).
• Broader: Gen Z Europeans 17% more likely to engage with NBA; Italy leads with 81% of viewers watching NBA content (2024).

Fanatics you know what to do.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Ok but why would you not compare prices to the most recent peak? That literally determines whether the market is up or down lol.

If it’s not setting ATHs the market isn’t going up. It’s not a hard concept

Lower highs and lower lows for 99% of cards with random pumps in between.

You don't compare to COVID peaks because that was not a natural market. It was abnormal activity that was caused by unnatural outside factors. If you have ever taken a statistics class you understand what outliers are. Its data points that have to be taken into consideration (often removed all together) in order to get accurate information.

Example: A card sells for $100, $110, $105, $120 and then some person randomly purchases the same card for $250. Then the following sales are $135, $130, $125, $140. There are two completely different ways to look at this information. But the most accurate way to look at it is to remove the outlier, because it does nothing but skew the data line/trend. There is nothing that happened during COVID that ever happened previously, nor will it ever happen like that again.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Equities are going to appreciate at a faster rate than housing.

Housing had there speculative bubble. 20% downpayment on property appreciating 2% = 10% return, which is SP500. I see regional 2% price appreciation in the northeast, I don't see any price appreciation in markets that shot up in the most in the covid bubble.

The hate on Jerome Powell is insane. If he does what Trump wants, those homes skyrocket in value and the rich keep getting richer.

I’m not sure how this disproves what I said. Housing affordability is at an all-time low already. The median home price in the US is $419k. Not that it’s a hard line, but how many individuals or couples in their 20s to 40s can afford an $84k down payment?

I bought my first home for $179k in 2013. 1600 sqft. What people used to call a starter home. Sold it for $237k in 2020. The couple that bought it sold it for $300k in 2023. The Zestimate on it now is $336k. Thats almost double the down payment, double the insurance, and double the property tax on top of whatever increase utilities and maintenance has seen. This is insurmountable for most.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

The middle class has been getting crushed for the better part of 45 years (i.e. since Reagan).

What needs to happen? Wages need to rise significantly for starters. Then add in reduced health care expenditures, lower housing costs, etc.

Heck the national minimum wage is still $7.25 an hour.....that's $14,500 a year for someone working a full 2000 hours a year (40 hours a week for 50 weeks). For comparison, the poverty line is $15,650 a year.....which means that someone working full time at minimum wage is in poverty. Think about that....

I'm always flabbergasted when I read about union members voting for anti-union Republicans who would like nothing more than to reduce their wages.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Torro

Wow your explanation is the peak of capitalism, I’m sure you are old person that has accumulated assets in your lifetime and it’s fine by you. But what about the young people who are not from rich families, but they are working on their masters or even PhD, haven’t been able to earn money to buy any assets yet, they all low class right? IMO middle class is the majority of people, they have a degree and work as specialist or mid level managers, they depend heavily on the living cost / wages growth ratio, they likely have or are planning to purchase real estate with loan, some might had some assets like stocks or crypto couple years ago but had to sell over the past years (or at least have not been continuing to invest) to keep up with living costs. All together they are educated hard working people that keep the economy going - or you would classify them all as low class?

You’re trying to argue against the math. What you are describing is the poor class. People living from paycheck to paycheck whether they want to admit it or not. Your tear jerker post doesn’t change that.

I grew up poor. Legitimately poor. I was given nothing. I’ve earned everything. Unlike most, I’ve continuously put forth the effort and made the right decisions over the last 3+ decades to get here. I didn’t choose to major in art history then cry about having to work at Starbucks because my degree doesn’t apply to anything. I didn’t choose to practice medicine in NYC and then cry about having a salary marginally above the city median. I have an age-adjusted massive stockpile of equities because I’ve been following and studying the markets for almost two decades.

I’m literally the American dream. From nothing to creating multi-generational wealth with a lot of hard work and a little bit of luck. Anyone here can do it if they’re committed from the start. Too bad most aren’t.

[premium1981]

I think the biggest flaw in our economic outlook in the US is the bottom half expects things to correct down to their level. That isn't how things work. You cannot raise the minimum wage enough, and you cannot force downward pressure on things like homes without setting of a chain reaction. You will always have poor people and rich people. You just have different goal posts now than what it used to be. And in 50 years they will be different as again.

The only thing that brings down the costs of everything significantly would be a deep recession or depression. And guess what? The lower class of the country can't buy when that happens either. The people with money are the ones buying.

Being successful or not in life is largely a choice. Not always, but most of the time. I came from nothing. Most people are capable of working more hours, cutting back on expenses, or finding a better job. Comfort, laziness, victim mentality, etc are reasons why that doesn't happen. Someone mentioned minimum wage above. These jobs are not meant for people to work full time and survive on. These jobs are meant for teenagers starting out, temporary solutions for quick work while looking for other stuff, or maybe even lower IQ people who have a hard time doing some other jobs. If you are a capable man or woman working at McDonald's making minimum wage at 45 years old and trying to support a family you are a failure. Plain and simple. Sugar coat it all you want, I don't care. They can do better.

If you took all the wealth in our country and divided it equally amongst every adult you would get the same outcome after a number of years. Half of the population would be broke again and complaining again, and the other half would have made something of themselves with the money.

I say all of that to say instead of waiting for the economy to come down to your level, do something to bring yourself up to its level. You don't need the newest iphone, you don't need Starbucks every day, you don't need a new car, you don't need 2 cards, you don't need new clothes every week, you don't need 7 streaming services, you don't need a carwash membership, you don't need to eat out every day, etc, etc. I can go on and on. Most people make their own beds and then complain that they have to sleep on it.

PS. Yes, there are exceptions to every rule. Some people fall onto hard times through no fault of their own. And some people become rich without putting any effort into life. Life isn't always fair.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I think the biggest flaw in our economic outlook in the US is the bottom half expects things to correct down to their level. That isn't how things work. You cannot raise the minimum wage enough, and you cannot force downward pressure on things like homes without setting of a chain reaction. You will always have poor people and rich people. You just have different goal posts now than what it used to be. And in 50 years they will be different as again.

The only thing that brings down the costs of everything significantly would be a deep recession or depression. And guess what? The lower class of the country can't buy when that happens either. The people with money are the ones buying.

Being successful or not in life is largely a choice. Not always, but most of the time. I came from nothing. Most people are capable of working more hours, cutting back on expenses, or finding a better job. Comfort, laziness, victim mentality, etc are reasons why that doesn't happen. Someone mentioned minimum wage above. These jobs are not meant for people to work full time and survive on. These jobs are meant for teenagers starting out, temporary solutions for quick work while looking for other stuff, or maybe even lower IQ people who have a hard time doing some other jobs. If you are a capable man or woman working at McDonald's making minimum wage at 45 years old and trying to support a family you are a failure. Plain and simple. Sugar coat it all you want, I don't care. They can do better.

If you took all the wealth in our country and divided it equally amongst every adult you would get the same outcome after a number of years. Half of the population would be broke again and complaining again, and the other half would have made something of themselves with the money.

I say all of that to say instead of waiting for the economy to come down to your level, do something to bring yourself up to its level. You don't need the newest iphone, you don't need Starbucks every day, you don't need a new car, you don't need 2 cards, you don't need new clothes every week, you don't need 7 streaming services, you don't need a carwash membership, you don't need to eat out every day, etc, etc. I can go on and on. Most people make their own beds and then complain that they have to sleep on it.

PS. Yes, there are exceptions to every rule. Some people fall onto hard times through no fault of their own. And some people become rich without putting any effort into life. Life isn't always fair.

Correct.

[jcardstore]

Minimum wage is such a pointless number to argue about because nobody is actually getting paid minimum wage. It's 1% or less of the working population.

I can go to any machine shop, industrial company, fed ex / ups, sanitation department... etc and get minimum $20-25/hr to start with 0 experience.

The problem isn't a lack of good paying jobs, it's 2 fold.

1) A growing number of people feel entitled to things they didn't earn. The "American Dream" is dead because people aren't believing in it anymore. That's not to say you can't make something of yourself with hard work, that's just saying eventually that group of people gives political power to legitimately destructive ideas like the potential mayor out in NYC.

2) 2 Generations of kids were told you're gonna be a loser and poor if you don't go to college. They took out 6 figs worth of loans for a degree that was useless, and not a small percentage of them either. My whole family were tradesman but my parents told me I was out of the house at 18 and I had no choice but college. My opinion on college is that unless you're doing law, medicine, or something in STEM you shouldn't go.

Lots of things are converging at once now. 2 generations of liberal art majors who can't get jobs, now with uncertainty around AI even the software engineering kids can't find jobs. Just saw a stat that out of college unemployment was over 5% (which is really high).

All of that aside, the wealth gap is just accelerating the divisions. You can't deny that since post GFC with QE, the asset holders have become incredibly rich while the "renters" have had more and more of their money sucked away. Inflation is really just the rate at which your currency is getting diluted. That's why assets go up so fast because they are all nominal. The people holding the dollars get screwed and the people holding the assets benefit from all that extra money.

[KhalDrogo]

To bring this back to cards, it’s clear the hobby is not for the middle class if you are a newcomer. But if you’ve been doing this awhile, you likely have a good bit of equity built up, and this gives you some freedom to operate. This is why MJ’s ascension is not surprising. I think most people can go to their stash and find $10k in cards they’d rather consolidate to buy MJ.

[Torro]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You’re trying to argue against the math. What you are describing is the poor class. People living from paycheck to paycheck whether they want to admit it or not. Your tear jerker post doesn’t change that.

I grew up poor. Legitimately poor. I was given nothing. I’ve earned everything. Unlike most, I’ve continuously put forth the effort and made the right decisions over the last 3+ decades to get here. I didn’t choose to major in art history then cry about having to work at Starbucks because my degree doesn’t apply to anything. I didn’t choose to practice medicine in NYC and then cry about having a salary marginally above the city median. I have an age-adjusted massive stockpile of equities because I’ve been following and studying the markets for almost two decades.

I’m literally the American dream. From nothing to creating multi-generational wealth with a lot of hard work and a little bit of luck. Anyone here can do it if they’re committed from the start. Too bad most aren’t.

Thank you for the information! It's great to hear you're doing well! I'm sure you're in the top 10% bracket (keep reading, and you'll understand what I mean). However, if you were a little less ignorant and a bit more humble, you'd be truly awesome!

Now, let me give you some information about my experience. During the summer break from university, I traveled to the USA (Illinois and Tennessee) for a three-month internship program. My job involved going door-to-door to discuss education with families, essentially selling educational books for preschoolers to high school students. I sat down and talked with many American families, working six days a week from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. Based on my experience, I found that about 90% of the people I met seemed to have low intelligence, while 10% were highly intelligent. This observation aligns with your take on there being "no middle class," as it felt like people were either very intelligent or not intelligent at all.

However, most of the people in the 90% bracket didn't seem poor. They appeared to have disposable income, nice houses, and nice cars. On a global scale, they definitely wouldn't be considered poor, and they likely have an extra $50 to buy a favorite player's sports card. While they may not bid on high-end items like PMGs or Exquisite etc, they can still participate in the market. My first post on this topic was about "what it will take for low- to mid-end basketball cards to follow the high-end market."

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Torro

However, most of the people in the 90% bracket didn't seem poor. They appeared to have disposable income, nice houses, and nice cars.

Sounds about right. Self inflicted poorness. AKA, a choice.

[KhalDrogo]

Nothing like a European who spent 3 months doing D2D sales in the US probably 15-20 years ago trying to educate you on your ignorance of the American wealth structure.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by premium1981

You don't need the newest iphone, you don't need Starbucks every day, you don't need a new car, you don't need 2 cards, you don't need new clothes every week, you don't need 7 streaming services, you don't need a carwash membership, you don't need to eat out every day, etc, etc. I can go on and on. Most people make their own beds and then complain that they have to sleep on it.

PS. Yes, there are exceptions to every rule. Some people fall onto hard times through no fault of their own. And some people become rich without putting any effort into life. Life isn't always fair.

I think you've posted similar thoughts before in other threads and I've agreed with you there, too.

Getting rich in the US of A is attainable by almost anyone/everyone. But it's like athletes when they talk about winning.

Every athlete says they want to win. But not every athlete is willing to put in the work to be a winner. If you look at the greats, they all sacrificed a lot to get where they are. Many of them gave up time with friends, going to school dances, sleeping in on Saturdays, etc...

You want to be successful in life? You gotta sacrifice a lot of the things you mentioned (although I have a car wash membership...gotta keep my office clean!)

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I think you've posted similar thoughts before in other threads and I've agreed with you there, too.

Getting rich in the US of A is attainable by almost anyone/everyone. But it's like athletes when they talk about winning.

Every athlete says they want to win. But not every athlete is willing to put in the work to be a winner. If you look at the greats, they all sacrificed a lot to get where they are. Many of them gave up time with friends, going to school dances, sleeping in on Saturdays, etc...

You want to be successful in life? You gotta sacrifice a lot of the things you mentioned (although I have a car wash membership...gotta keep my office clean!)

The "American Way" and "Keeping up with the Jones" is what has caused this. The current generation looks back at the boomers and says its all their fault. Yes, it was easier back then, I get it. But life was different and we have chose as a society to increase our standard of living. I saw someone post a video on this not too long ago and he noted some changes from today versus when he grew up in the 80's.

-A family with 3-4 kids does not need a house with 4-5 bedrooms. Kids shared rooms in the boomer generation.

-A family had 1 vehicle, and it was probably 10-20 years old. The dad fixed the vehicle if something was wrong with it. People did their own oil changes, rotated their own tires, etc.

-Going out to eat was for special occasions, maybe once a month or two if lucky. Now some families grab breakfast at McDonalds on the way out, and dinner from wherever on the way back in.

-The family had 1 phone, and it was attached to the wall.

-Kids got 1 pair of shoes for school and it way from Pay Less, they were not Air Jordans.

-The moms usually cut the kids hair, not a $50-$100 haircut fee every month or so.

-No one carried credit card debt, because that wasn't a thing. Some people are paying more in interest on credit cards now than they pay for rent.

-Gym memberships were not a thing. You got fit by working, even as a kid. My family had a small farm when I was a kid. I was dragging hay bales that weighed as much as I did.

-You didn't pay anyone to cut your grass or clean your house. And even now, if someone cuts their own grass they usually have a really nice newer mower, not an old one that didn't cost much.

-As a family, community, church, you passed clothes down to kids that were younger than you. That rarely happens now.

This type of list can go on and on. But the point is that we have chosen, as a society, to change how we live. That is fine and well, but you cannot complain about how things were "back in the day" if you don't want to live a comparable life. And even so, with things being so expensive now, you can still do it. There are more opportunities today than ever before, and there is more money flowing now than ever before. People are generally just too lazy to go get it. As you said, sacrifice is needed to get there. But no one wants to do that. They want it all wrapped up real nice and purty and handed to them.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

But it's like athletes when they talk about winning.

Every athlete says they want to win. But not every athlete is willing to put in the work to be a winner.

Just to give a recent example of this, to show how right you are:

Desmond Watson showed up to camp at a weight that would be deemed fat even by fat people. He got up to 470lbs I think. They told him to slim down in order to stay on the roster, but he chose not to and was released by the Bucs. How freaking lazy and unmotivated do you have to be for that to happen? At that size, the weight would just melt away with any effort at all. But its much easier to go through the motions and keep eating cake and cookies all day. This is a perfect analogy to being broke for most people. They want to keep eating their financial cakes and cookies and then complain because they can't make any progress.