We all know the Guardians and Reds aren't good teams, right?

[goyder43]

I love when small market middling teams trigger big market snobs. How about this for teams like the Astros or Mets: Play better.

[peterose4hof]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

That means no World Series titles for the 2000 Yankees (13-17 in September) or 2006 Cardinals (25-31 combined in Aug and Sept).

And the Reds haven't been hot -- they went 3-3 in their last 6 games, which they needed badly to win.

They went 9-4 the last two weeks of the season. I'd say that's pretty hot.

[livfreely]

Well at least you know what teams to parlay on with a bet


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by DioBrando

Trust me, no one in Cincinnati actually thinks the reds are a good team. They lucked into the playoffs and will most likely get swept by the dodgers.

That's not true at all. The Reds have the best 3 man rotation around. Nobody wants to face Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott in a 3 game series. Baseball people know once you get into the playoffs it's all about pitching.

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

That means no World Series titles for the 2000 Yankees (13-17 in September) or 2006 Cardinals (25-31 combined in Aug and Sept).

And the Reds haven't been hot -- they went 3-3 in their last 6 games, which they needed badly to win.

Nice cherrypicking. The Reds won 9 of their last 13, including a 4 game sweep of the Cubs and finishing with a series win against the Brewers when it mattered most (a team they hadn't won a series against in 3 seasons).

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

That's not true at all. The Reds have the best 3 man rotation around. Nobody wants to face Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott in a 3 game series. Baseball people know once you get into the playoffs it's all about pitching.

Uh, the Dodgers top three starters are better than the Reds':

Reds:
1. Andrew Abbott -- 159 ERA+
2. Hunter Greene -- 166 ERA+
3. Nick Logolo -- 137 ERA+

Dodgers:
1. Blake Snell -- 177 ERA+
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- 167 ERA+
3. Shohei Ohtani -- 145 ERA+

[Blamo]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

They both benefitted from epic collapses. The Guardians benefitted from the collapse of the Tigers, and to a lesser extent the Astros. The Reds benefitted from the collapse of the Mets, and to a lesser extent the D-Backs and Giants trading away key players at the deadline.

Here -- I'll prove it:


2025 Guardians:
Pythagorean W-L: 80-82, 643 Runs, 649 Runs Allowed
Runs per game: 3.97 -- ranked 27th
xwOBA: .299 -- ranked 30th
Runs allowed per game: 4.01 -- ranked 7th
xERA: 3.98 -- ranked 11th

They have only two hitters with an OPS+ of 100 or more -- meaning, only two hitters who aren't at least average.

They have only one starting pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched and a ERA+ of 100 or more.

Their record prior to September was 68-67. They went 20-7 in September in large part because they beat up on crappy teams. They started the month losing 2 of 3 to the playoff-bound Red Sox, but then only played one other playoff team the rest of the month -- the cratering Tigers, who went 7-17 in September.

The Guardians aren't a bad team, but they're a .500 team pretending to be a good team.


2025 Reds:
Pythagorean W-L: 85-77, 716 Runs, 681 Runs Allowed
Runs per game: 4.42 -- ranked 16th
xwOBA: .306 -- ranked 27th
Runs allowed per game: 4.20 -- ranked 11th
xERA: 3.97 -- ranked 9th

They had no hitter with an OPS+ of 110 or better -- they had only 3 hitters with at least 150 PA and a 100 OPS+. Pretty pathetic, if you ask me.

They did have very good starting pitching, though -- 3 starters with at least 100 innings pitched an ERA+ of 137 or higher.

It took the Mets going a combined 21-32 in August and September for the Reds to be a playoff team. They were .500 all season long -- very consistently so:

March: 2-2
April: 14-13
May: 13-15
June: 15-11
July: 13-12
August: 12-15
September: 14-11

The Reds have good pitching, but they're not a good team.


If you ask me, I'd rather see the Mets and Astros in October, but sometimes middling teams get lucky.

Thats great but none of that is how they determine who makes the playoffs so.....

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by AnthonyCorona

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Yep.

And if you don't want mediocre teams in the playoffs, then stop expanding the number of wild cards!!!

Nobody asked for a 6th wild card except for the TV networks.....

[itsbaytime]

I would argue that the Mets had a 394M Payroll (per Spotrac) and spent that money like idiots. They had every advantge in the world and still couldn't make the playoffs. The Astros finished at 254M and this applies for them as well. Meanwhile the Reds were at 136M and the Guardos 118M. The Guardians also lost the best closer in baseball to a permanent ban as well as a #3 starter for the same reason, then they traded a former Cy Young pitcher to Toronto and here we are.

[itsbaytime]

Also, the Guardians won the division. They would be in any format.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by itsbaytime

I would argue that the Mets had a 394M Payroll (per Spotrac) and spent that money like idiots. They had every advantge in the world and still couldn't make the playoffs. The Astros finished at 254M and this applies for them as well. Meanwhile the Reds were at 136M and the Guardos 118M. The Guardians also lost the best closer in baseball to a permanent ban as well as a #3 starter for the same reason, then they traded a former Cy Young pitcher to Toronto and here we are.

Nobody uses the tax estimates

LAD 585M
NYM 428M
NYY 380M
PHI 357M
TOR 290M
SD 283M
BOS 247M
CHC 227M
SEA 191M
DET 170M
MIL 146M
CIN 141M
CLE 126M

[itsbaytime]

Originally Posted by JRX

Nobody uses the tax estimates

LAD 585M
NYM 428M
NYY 380M
PHI 357M
TOR 290M
SD 283M
BOS 247M
CHC 227M
SEA 191M
DET 170M
MIL 146M
CIN 141M
CLE 126M

Same premise. Not sure what you are saying? I also don't see Houston on that list.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by itsbaytime

Same premise. Not sure what you are saying? I also don't see Houston on that list.

I only included one non playoff team - the Mets to further dump on them lol. The point was its not 394M its even MORE!

[itsbaytime]

Originally Posted by JRX

I only included one non playoff team - the Mets to further dump on them lol. The point was its not 394M its even MORE!

[asujbl]

This thread is awesome

Baseball boys are wild

[corockies]

Starting today the 2025 regular season doesn't matter. The only thing that mattered about the 2025 regular season was being able to play in a game today.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

Tell me again how you're not a big market snob as you put it.

I felt the same way reading his statement, lol. I guess I'll just continue to cheer on my "scrub" Brewers and thank baseball for expanding to a 6th wildcard so they were able to make the postseason. It's not like they had the best record and run differential in baseball...sheer luck they got in. And since Milwaukee is actually the smallest market, I guess we're extra scrubby.

[ScooterD]

Ironic - the fact that the teams may not be as dynamic in talent, payroll, and storylines does, in fact, make them compelling.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by itsbaytime

I would argue that the Mets had a 394M Payroll (per Spotrac) and spent that money like idiots. They had every advantge in the world and still couldn't make the playoffs. The Astros finished at 254M and this applies for them as well. Meanwhile the Reds were at 136M and the Guardos 118M. The Guardians also lost the best closer in baseball to a permanent ban as well as a #3 starter for the same reason, then they traded a former Cy Young pitcher to Toronto and here we are.

Was this definitely announced?

[TBTC Baseball]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Uh, the Dodgers top three starters are better than the Reds':

Reds:
1. Andrew Abbott -- 159 ERA+
2. Hunter Greene -- 166 ERA+
3. Nick Logolo -- 137 ERA+

Dodgers:
1. Blake Snell -- 177 ERA+
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- 167 ERA+
3. Shohei Ohtani -- 145 ERA+

Holy Small Sample Size Batman!

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by TBTC Baseball

Holy Small Sample Size Batman!

I really wanted to point that out, but decided to leave it.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Was this definitely announced?

Not definitely announced that they're gone, but even if they aren't banned you more than likely will not see them in Cleveland again.

[chompie99]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

But at the end of the day, the small-market, low-budget teams don't win championships -- the numbers are conclusive on this. You've got to be in the upper half of payroll to have a shot.

Having token small-market teams like the Brewers, Reds and Indians make the playoffs -- with the help of 6 Wild Card spots now -- doesn't mean the game is particularly balanced competitively. It just means some big spenders like the Mets and Astros can crap the bed sometimes and let the scrub teams sneak in.

Not always true though largely it is. Royals 2015 is a somewhat recent example. Made the WS in 2014 and went to game 7 as well.

[Rooftop]

Haters gonna hate.

No team wants to face the Reds in a 3 game series.

[ewokpelts]

Good or not, they’re in the playoffs.
The Indians came back from a 15 game deficit to win the division.

[itsbaytime]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

Not definitely announced that they're gone, but even if they aren't banned you more than likely will not see them in Cleveland again.

I am 99% sure they will both be banned for life. They can't announce it immediately due to MLBPA rules and all of that, but the CBA is very specific about gambling. They will both be done forever and lose visas. Very, very stupid for both of them and whatever small amount they made from it compared to future earnings.