We all know the Guardians and Reds aren't good teams, right?

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by TBTC Baseball

Holy Small Sample Size Batman!

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

I really wanted to point that out, but decided to leave it.

It was a good thing that you did:

2023-2025 (3-year sample):

1. Andrew Abbott: 133 ERA+; 413.2 IP
2. Hunter Greene: 134 ERA+; 370.0 IP
3. Nick Logolo: 108 ERA+; 306.1 IP

1. Blake Snell: 163 ERA+, 345.1 IP
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 154 ERA+; 263.2 IP
3. Shohei Ohtani: 143 ERA+; 179.0 IP

[goyder43]

Originally Posted by itsbaytime

I am 99% sure they will both be banned for life. They can't announce it immediately due to MLBPA rules and all of that, but the CBA is very specific about gambling. They will both be done forever and lose visas. Very, very stupid for both of them and whatever small amount they made from it compared to future earnings.

I generally agree that this is the most likely outcome. Being a Guards fan and somehow holding out hope against hope, I think the only chance they may have is if there is some bigger organized crime issue behind this where perhaps family or something like that was threatened. They both happen to be from the Dominican.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

It was a good thing that you did:

2023-2025 (3-year sample):

1. Andrew Abbott: 133 ERA+; 413.2 IP
2. Hunter Greene: 134 ERA+; 370.0 IP
3. Nick Logolo: 108 ERA+; 306.1 IP

1. Blake Snell: 163 ERA+, 345.1 IP
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 154 ERA+; 263.2 IP
3. Shohei Ohtani: 143 ERA+; 179.0 IP

Nice try, but what does 3 year sample have to do with what was being discussed? This year.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by chompie99

Not always true though largely it is. Royals 2015 is a somewhat recent example. Made the WS in 2014 and went to game 7 as well.

The Royals boosted their total payroll to 13th highest in MLB in 2015.

Since the low-payroll Marlins won the championship in 2003, only the cheating 2017 Astros had a payroll ranked in the bottom half of MLB (17th).

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

Nice try, but what does 3 year sample have to do with what was being discussed? This year.

Well, if you insist, we have Statcast-based stats that reveal a pitcher's true performance:

xERA -- 2025:

1. Andrew Abbott: 3.57
2. Hunter Greene: 3.09
3. Nick Logolo: 3.50

1. Blake Snell: 3.20
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 2.73
3. Shohei Ohtani: 2.45

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by erock28

I felt the same way reading his statement, lol. I guess I'll just continue to cheer on my "scrub" Brewers and thank baseball for expanding to a 6th wildcard so they were able to make the postseason. It's not like they had the best record and run differential in baseball...sheer luck they got in. And since Milwaukee is actually the smallest market, I guess we're extra scrubby.

I wasn't referring to the Brewers -- aka, the Rays of the NL. They've consistently won with a lower payroll.

I was thinking more of the Reds this season, or the Marlins and D-Backs in 2023.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Well, if you insist, we have Statcast-based stats that reveal a pitcher's true performance:

xERA -- 2025:

1. Andrew Abbott: 3.57
2. Hunter Greene: 3.09
3. Nick Logolo: 3.50

1. Blake Snell: 3.20
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 2.73
3. Shohei Ohtani: 2.45

Right back to the point small sample size correct

[goyder43]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I wasn't referring to the Brewers -- aka, the Rays of the NL. They've consistently won with a lower payroll.

I was thinking more of the Reds this season, or the Marlins and D-Backs in 2023.

With that logic you'd definitely be talking about the Guardians as well. They have the 4th most wins in the past 10 years after the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees and just ahead of..... the Brewers. No Rays in the top 5 there, though.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

Right back to the point small sample size correct

You can use Eno Sarris' Stuff+, which measures how nasty a pitcher has been. Sample size is less of a factor:

Stuff+ -- 2025:

1. Andrew Abbott: 99
2. Hunter Greene: 123
3. Nick Logolo: 100

1. Blake Snell: 113
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 110
3. Shohei Ohtani: 118

Green's Stuff+ score is extremely impressive -- highest score of all pitchers with at least 100 IP this season. But the Dodgers staff is just better.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by goyder43

With that logic you'd definitely be talking about the Guardians as well. They have the 4th most wins in the past 10 years after the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees and just ahead of..... the Brewers. No Rays in the top 5 there, though.

The Guardians overperformed this season -- not so much a scrub, but a 1-year fluke.

The Rays have fallen off the last couple of seasons, but they had a half-decade where they were consistently in the playoffs:

Rays:
2017: 80-82 -- 27th in payroll
2018: 90-72 -- 30th in payroll
2019: 96-66 -- 30th in payroll
2020: 40-20 -- 26th in payroll
2021: 100-62 -- 26th in payroll
2022: 86-67 -- 23rd in payroll
2023: 99-63 -- 27th in payroll
Total: 591-432 -- 27th in payroll (average)

Brewers:
2017: 86-76 -- 30th in payroll
2018: 96-67 -- 22nd in payroll
2019: 89-73 -- 16th in payroll
2020: 29-32 -- 22nd in payroll
2021: 95-67 -- 19th in payroll
2022: 86-76 -- 19th in payroll
2023: 92-70 -- 18th in payroll
Total: 573-461 -- 20th in payroll (average)

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

You can use Eno Sarris' Stuff+, which measures how nasty a pitcher has been. Sample size is less of a factor:

Stuff+ -- 2025:

1. Andrew Abbott: 99
2. Hunter Greene: 123
3. Nick Logolo: 100

1. Blake Snell: 113
2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 110
3. Shohei Ohtani: 118

Green's Stuff+ score is extremely impressive -- highest score of all pitchers with at least 100 IP this season. But the Dodgers staff is just better.

Regardless of Stats or analytics I still say if especially Greene is on no one wants to face the Reds right this moment. But we shall.see how it plays out

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The Guardians overperformed this season -- not so much a scrub, but a 1-year fluke.

The Rays have fallen off the last couple of seasons, but they had a half-decade where they were consistently in the playoffs:

Rays:
2017: 80-82 -- 27th in payroll
2018: 90-72 -- 30th in payroll
2019: 96-66 -- 30th in payroll
2020: 40-20 -- 26th in payroll
2021: 100-62 -- 26th in payroll
2022: 86-67 -- 23rd in payroll
2023: 99-63 -- 27th in payroll
Total: 591-432 -- 27th in payroll (average)

Brewers:
2017: 86-76 -- 30th in payroll
2018: 96-67 -- 22nd in payroll
2019: 89-73 -- 16th in payroll
2020: 29-32 -- 22nd in payroll
2021: 95-67 -- 19th in payroll
2022: 86-76 -- 19th in payroll
2023: 92-70 -- 18th in payroll
Total: 573-461 -- 20th in payroll (average)

Guardians over performed this year yes.but one year fluke ummm 8 out of 13 years they have been in playoffs

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

Guardians over performed this year yes.but one year fluke ummm 8 out of 13 years they have been in playoffs

Should have phrased it better -- meant they had a fluky season this year, but have been legitimately good otherwise the last decade-plus.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

Guardians over performed this year yes.but one year fluke ummm 8 out of 13 years they have been in playoffs

They mostly are what they are. A talented team that doesn't quite have enough to get over the hump unless they just nail their prospects and peak when their best prospects are cheap.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by atk825

They mostly are what they are. A talented team that doesn't quite have enough to get over the hump unless they just nail their prospects and peak when their best prospects are cheap.

I know who they are trust me. and I am not saying they are some juggernaut, but they are overall not as bad as what is being portrayed here in this thread overall. If this group can progress with guys that are coming then they may make some noise again.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Should have phrased it better -- meant they had a fluky season this year, but have been legitimately good otherwise the last decade-plus.

Makes a little more sense.

[OscarOne]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

They both benefitted from epic collapses. The Guardians benefitted from the collapse of the Tigers, and to a lesser extent the Astros. The Reds benefitted from the collapse of the Mets, and to a lesser extent the D-Backs and Giants trading away key players at the deadline.

Here -- I'll prove it:


2025 Guardians:
Pythagorean W-L: 80-82, 643 Runs, 649 Runs Allowed
Runs per game: 3.97 -- ranked 27th
xwOBA: .299 -- ranked 30th
Runs allowed per game: 4.01 -- ranked 7th
xERA: 3.98 -- ranked 11th

They have only two hitters with an OPS+ of 100 or more -- meaning, only two hitters who aren't at least average.

They have only one starting pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched and a ERA+ of 100 or more.

Their record prior to September was 68-67. They went 20-7 in September in large part because they beat up on crappy teams. They started the month losing 2 of 3 to the playoff-bound Red Sox, but then only played one other playoff team the rest of the month -- the cratering Tigers, who went 7-17 in September.

The Guardians aren't a bad team, but they're a .500 team pretending to be a good team.


2025 Reds:
Pythagorean W-L: 85-77, 716 Runs, 681 Runs Allowed
Runs per game: 4.42 -- ranked 16th
xwOBA: .306 -- ranked 27th
Runs allowed per game: 4.20 -- ranked 11th
xERA: 3.97 -- ranked 9th

They had no hitter with an OPS+ of 110 or better -- they had only 3 hitters with at least 150 PA and a 100 OPS+. Pretty pathetic, if you ask me.

They did have very good starting pitching, though -- 3 starters with at least 100 innings pitched an ERA+ of 137 or higher.

It took the Mets going a combined 21-32 in August and September for the Reds to be a playoff team. They were .500 all season long -- very consistently so:

March: 2-2
April: 14-13
May: 13-15
June: 15-11
July: 13-12
August: 12-15
September: 14-11

The Reds have good pitching, but they're not a good team.


If you ask me, I'd rather see the Mets and Astros in October, but sometimes middling teams get lucky.

Who cares? It's not like this was a secret.

But if those other teams wanted to get into the playoffs they know what they had to do, and they didn't do it. Cleveland came back from 15 games out of first, and it why they are playing ball in October.

I'm going to be honest. This is one of the stupidest posts I've seen on here in a long time. I'm a Guards fan, sure, but absolutely nobody thinks we're some powerhouse. Especially the fans, who knows exactly how bad the teams hitting is.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by OscarOne

Who cares? It's not like this was a secret.

But if those other teams wanted to get into the playoffs they know what they had to do, and they didn't do it. Cleveland came back from 15 games out of first, and it why they are playing ball in October.

I'm going to be honest. This is one of the stupidest posts I've seen on here in a long time. I'm a Guards fan, sure, but absolutely nobody thinks we're some powerhouse. Especially the fans, who knows exactly how bad the teams hitting is.

He's gone off the rails ever since he discovered analytics. He's like the kid in 6th grade who just realized you can spell words with numbers if you turn the calculator upside down, and now he has to show everyone he sees.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Rooftop

Haters gonna hate.

No team wants to face the Reds in a 3 game series.

The Dodgers didn't seem scared of the team who hasn't won a postseason series since 1995.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

He's gone off the rails ever since he discovered analytics. He's like the kid in 6th grade who just realized you can spell words with numbers if you turn the calculator upside down, and now he has to show everyone he sees.

Haha -- what the hell are you talking about? I've been reading and discussing baseball analytics on the internet for almost a decade-and-a-half now. I remember watching guys like Ben Lindberg and Jay Jaffe being interviewed by Brian Kenny on the MLB Network show MLB Now in the early 2010s.

Oh, auctionjmm, you're so logical and articulate, but you never come with the receipts to back up your claims and arguments -- it's always through deductive logic; never statistics and hard data. I bring the statistics -- sorry that annoys you.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Haha -- what the hell are you talking about? I've been reading and discussing baseball analytics on the internet for almost a decade-and-a-half now. I remember watching guys like Ben Lindberg and Jay Jaffe being interviewed by Brian Kenny on the MLB Network show MLB Now in the early 2010s.

Oh, auctionjmm, you're so logical and articulate, but you never come with the receipts to back up your claims and arguments -- it's always through deductive logic; never statistics and hard data. I bring the statistics -- sorry that annoys you.

Over your head. 99% of people agreed with you before you made this thread. You didn't need a "here, I'll prove it" thread. We don't need analytics or "receipts" to watch a Guardians game and know this team isn't very good lol. It's okay to trust your eyes sometimes.

To your second point, I'm usually arguing against people who make crazy claims without evidence in the first place. Not the other way around. There are conspiracy theories all over this forum that can't be proven with hard data. In those instances, logic and common sense is often all that is needed.

Like when somebody says that money laundering and tax evasion are "big drivers" of the high-end market but have zero proof of this. Or that the feds likely know this and aren't making it a priority. Or the knucklehead who said yesterday that the average return on a Bob Ross Collector's Box is $50-$100 and the only reason boxes are rising is because resellers are colluding on a pump scheme. These are just random theories concocted by individuals who can't comprehend why the market is growing, so they just throw random stuff out there.

More often than not, you can get through life pretty efficiently with simple observation and common sense. I love data, but I'm also okay with just throwing an umbrella in the car when I see dark clouds overhead instead of spending 30 minutes analyzing forecast models before work.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Over your head. 99% of people agreed with you before you made this thread. You didn't need a "here, I'll prove it" thread. We don't need analytics or "receipts" to watch a Guardians game and know this team isn't very good lol. It's okay to trust your eyes sometimes.

To your second point, I'm usually arguing against people who make crazy claims without evidence in the first place. Not the other way around. There are conspiracy theories all over this forum that can't be proven with hard data. In those instances, logic and common sense is often all that is needed.

Like when somebody says that money laundering and tax evasion are "big drivers" of the high-end market but have zero proof of this. Or that the feds likely know this and aren't making it a priority. Or the knucklehead who said yesterday that the average return on a Bob Ross Collector's Box is $50-$100 and the only reason boxes are rising is because resellers are colluding on a pump scheme. These are just random theories concocted by individuals who can't comprehend why the market is growing, so they just throw random stuff out there.

More often than not, you can get through life pretty efficiently with simple observation and common sense. I love data, but I'm also okay with just throwing an umbrella in the car when I see dark clouds overhead instead of spending 30 minutes analyzing forecast models before work.

Your eyes can be deceiving, which is why the supporting data is important. Also, the Guardians went 20-7 in September, so a lot of people who were just starting to pay attention to them might have been convinced they were good.

In regards to your supposed surefire approach to life using logic for everything -- people and the world are illogical. Yeah, I know, it's shocking to learn. People act stupid and the world can be chaotic and hard to grasp. Applying logic to everything can lead you astray and give you a false sense of things.

With regards to my comment about money laundering and tax evasion being rampant and a main driver in the hobby -- that was a theory I was proposing. My assumption was that others agreed with that view -- I didn't state it as fact.

The reason why the current hobby is doing well is largely because of gambling and repackers -- the gambling side is driving the sales of new product, and the repackers are providing a lot of liquidity to the singles market. There is also likely a lot of market manipulation going on, due to absence of regulation in the hobby.

Edit: meant Guardians; not Indians.

[rhigh2390]

Originally Posted by rats60

The Dodgers didn't seem scared of the team who hasn't won a postseason series since 1995.

Even as a Reds fan, that went about how I thought it would. The Reds simply aren't good. They earned their playoff spot, but absolutely nobody is, or should be, afraid to play us.

[ScooterD]

When I think of “hard data,” I value whether a team actually won a game over whether they should have won the game based on statistics and trends. Maybe that’s just me

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

When I think of “hard data,” I value whether a team actually won a game over whether they should have won the game based on statistics and trends. Maybe that’s just me

How do you determine how much luck was a factor then?