PSA no longer represents the best ROI (a data analysis)

[SLGSports]

Hobbyists have decided that PSA’s brand is worth more, so a PSA 10 regularly sells for more than cards gem-minted by other grading companies – but if you have a card to grade, many have not realized that sending it to PSA no longer brings the best value. I see two main drivers for this:

1. PSA is issuing lower grades. For the past 2 yrs, my grades have taken a drastic downturn. From what I gather, this is a common, shared experience for all submitters. The most compelling proof I’ve seen is John English Vintage Sports, where he cracked out 26 PSA graded cards and resubmitted them to PSA. 22 of 26 cards came back with lower grades (with cards dropping as much as 4 grades). None of them went up in grade, and the average drop was 1.65 grades! While painful to see, this matches my own experience as well. With PSA 10s specifically, Gemrate data documents well the continual decline of the PSA 10 (especially on older cards).
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAIZf42GkCo

2. Other grading companies are not exhibiting this same behavior. There are numerous YouTube videos showing crack->resub horror stories. The highest profile examples are probably recent videos from Geoff Wilson and Tyler Nethercott (TPot), where they submitted the same cards to all major grading companies. Results from both experiments are compiled here (recent comps, if any, are provided in parentheses):
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRKQKMnrgVw
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHHZm9kV0Uk

1940 Play Ball Ted Williams

• BGS 5
• SGC 5 ($2340)
• CGC 5.5
• PSA 3 ($1225)

2022 Bowman Inception Caitlin Clark AUTO

• BGS 9.5
• SGC 9.5 ($880)
• CGC 10
• PSA 9 ($1600)

2001 SPx Albert Pujols AUTO

• BGS 9 ($735)
• SGC 9 ($1150)
• CGC 9
• PSA 8 ($900)

1962 WS-Verlag W-E Pele

• BGS 5 ($600)
• SGC 2
• CGC 3
• PSA 2 ($210)

1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr.

• BGS 9.5 ($1650)
• SGC Auth ($81)
• CGC 9 ($650)
• PSA 6 ($66)

This data seems to confirm what we already know – that PSA has become more stingy on grades. When we look at ROI, however, PSA is literally the worst game in town. Here’s a direct side-by-side comparison with each competitor (where recent comps exist for both cards):

• PSA $1176 vs BGS $2985
• PSA $3791 vs SGC $4451
• PSA $66 vs CGC $650 (based on 1 card only)

Some other interesting high-profile examples:

• Ty Wilson (Chasing Cardboard) switched 20 cards from PSA to BGS. $1270 original value turned into $2080 value (64% gain).
  Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Bu7Uigl6CE&t=1133s
  
• Baseball Card Collector switched 8 cards from PSA to SGC. $960 value turned into $1230 value (28% gain).
  Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5gR0L1mmCE&t=497s

To take a few more data points, let’s say you have the following popular cards to grade. If your cards are in mint condition (1-2 minor issues), here is what you can reasonably expect. Again, PSA is giving grades 1.65 lower than competitors, based on the above data. I’m just using a one grade deduction in the data below. The real picture is likely much worse than this.

1996 Topps Kobe Bryant (rookie)

• BGS 9: $113
• SGC 9: $135
• CGC 9: $100
• PSA 8: $65

1999 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr (rookie)

• BGS 9: $223
• SGC 9: $214
• CGC 9: $140
• PSA 8: $95

1987 Fleer Michael Jordan (2nd Yr)

• BGS 9: $1252
• SGC 9: $1276
• CGC 9: $810
• PSA 8: $630

Which begs the question… why are flippers and resellers continuing to grade through PSA?

Yes, small sample sizes, but the overall picture is becoming very clear. With PSA grades being 1-2 grades lower as compared to competitors (as well as with earlier PSA), the value is simply not there if you’re looking to maximize value. To be clear, it’s not that PSA grade values are low (they’re not)… it’s that the grades they’re giving are significantly lower, which leads to significantly lower market and resell values. Collectors should collect what they want to collect, but for those looking to resell, PSA is no longer the best choice.

So what is happening at PSA? Here’s my guess:

1. They’ve embraced tech- and AI-assisted human assessments and the tech continues to improve in its ability to identify issues. In the past, PSA graders would miss things. But after compiling years of data that highlights common issues with each specific card, and with AI providing additional insights, less issues are being missed. I know many think PSA has an ulterior motive here, but I think they’re simply better at finding issues. Where they’ve failed us, is in maintaining consistency in grades (which has led to a severe drop in customer trust). FWIW, TAG does a great job at this. Their technology identifies tons of issues, but they map those issues to appropriate grades. PSA should integrate AI insights to speed up grading, but it’s negligent on their part to not make adjustments to resulting grades.

2. Trust in PSA is eroding due to lack of transparency. They’re clearly making changes, but there’s very little communication to customers unless there’s a highly-visible PR issue. For example, PSA’s unannounced changes to PSA 10 centering guidelines cost me many hundreds of dollars in grading fees because I was unaware they internally decided to be more strict.

3. PSA no longer cares about grading sports cards. TCG is where the battle is being fought, so that’s their focus. They continue to raise the prices for sports cards grading, haven’t done a special for sports cards in 5 months. They’ve “won” the sports card grading, and it’s showing in how they’re treating us.

4. The demise of BGS and the purchase of SGC has been horrible for the hobby. With the top two competitors out of the way, PSA has zero incentive to fight for our business. They can give us super low grades, continue to raise prices, give no specials etc… and customers continue to pay for this. Until we recognize this and take action, I suspect the poor treatment will continue.

[Scottish Punk]

So you are assuming PSA grades are one grade lower and thus comparing pricing with PSA slabs one less grade? Bold take. We have learned over and over, most collectors don't buy the card, they buy the grade. Having an "equal" card in a lower grade cost less isn't new.

[SLGSports]

Most submitters are choosing PSA because they believe it represents the best value... but since the grades are lower, they're leaving a lot of money on the table. I'm referring to those who want to resell, of course.

[88horsepower]

Originally Posted by SLGSports

Most submitters are choosing PSA because they believe it represents the best value... but since the grades are lower, they're leaving a lot of money on the table. I'm referring to those who want to resell, of course.

As a collector who does want the highest-grade cards for sets and players I enjoy, PSA missed out on a lot of money I would normally send them. I used to get a ton of 10s on cards from certain sets. Because I mostly get 9s on them now, I won't bother sending them anymore. I gave up on many sets because of PSA and it's not because they've gotten tighter on their grading standards, it's because they are so wildly inconsistent that I no longer have faith in their ability to properly assess cards.

[SLGSports]

I feel the same. I'm a collector too and gave up on PSA grading about a year ago for the same reasons. Situation has only gotten worse since then too.

[The_Reverend]

Interesting analysis. I gave up on sports and went full in on Pokemon and have not looked back. TCG is where their bread is buttered, so m swing with that would be problematic, with CGC expanding their tCG footprint.

[swerve]

It is becoming quite the conundrum. I want my cards in PSA slabs due to future resale. However, between price increases, turnaround times and inconsistent grading I really don't know what to do anymore.

I have 3 really nice Kobe and Jordan cards that I am honestly tempted to just send to SGC. I can do 2 day turnaround and it would still be less than the service level I'd have to use with PSA. I hate the fact that I have to even entertain that thought.

[lisu]

I feel like my grades for whatever reason haven't changed much with PSA. They used to be even more inconsistent for me, but the last couple, I've been around a 60% gem rate. I've had orders in the year past where I would go from 30% gem rate to 70% gem rate order by order, so I honestly don't know.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by SLGSports

Most submitters are choosing PSA because they believe it represents the best value... but since the grades are lower, they're leaving a lot of money on the table. I'm referring to those who want to resell, of course.

This analysis is probably true only in situations where the corresponding PSA grade is anything other than a PSA 10.

That in there lies the major problem with the analysis

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

This analysis is probably true only in situations where the corresponding PSA grade is anything other than a PSA 10.

That in there lies the major problem with the analysis

That is where my head was at as well. PSA 10 is kind of lottery ticket. Yes, when you get to the 9 level, they all kind of even out with ultra modern. If you grade with others, you lose out on the PSA 10 lottery and price jump. I am grading more with CGC so I don't even care about the PSA 10. The big caveat is I am grading for PC/slab aesthetics and not strictly monetary value.

[f2tornado]

The more PSA costs increase, the more particular I am with the cards I am submitting = higher gem rates. Higher prices may have ironically increased my ROI, albeit across a smaller number of cards.

[Gary]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

So you are assuming PSA grades are one grade lower and thus comparing pricing with PSA slabs one less grade? Bold take. We have learned over and over, most collectors don't buy the card, they buy the grade. Having an "equal" card in a lower grade cost less isn't new.

If im understanding the op's point,he not assuming 1 point but his data is saying 1.65.....if thats true he's got a point.as you stated people seem to buy the grade not the card.

So again if im reading hm right you send the same card to PSA,SGC,BGS,CGC it comes back a PSA 8 but an 9 in the other TPG's that the card sells for more in the 9 than a PSA 8,add to that cost to grade.turn around time......it makes sense.......if like i say im reading him correctly.i have no idea if his data is correct but seems his theory is sound if the data backs it up.

[inaka]

In determining value, here are two points people often neglect to factor in with PSA:

1. Turnaround time
This primarily affects flippers (not me), and I've already posted my opinion in this ad nauseam in the other thread, but it's an important factor not mentioned by the OP.

2. PSA's lack of half-grades
As we all know, PSA doesn't have a 9.5 grade, but the odd thing is that they rarely ever issue half grades as well, even though they are part of their grading scale. They do, but it's so rare that when someone gets a PSA 8.5, it's almost a wtf type moment. This leads to wild inconsistency. Heck, even Portnoy knows you can't have a quality pizza review if you only grade in whole numbers. (One bite, everyone knows the rules...) This is another reason why I prefer SGC's grading scale, because if you have a card that you're thinking might be an SGC 7 or SGC 8, and it comes back a 7.5 for example, it's an accurate grade.

With PSA, they seems to just ignore half grades for the most part, and then bump it down to a PSA 7 or even a PSA 6, and it leads to a lot more inconsistency when you can't even follow your own grading scale and largely ignore half grades. I really wish someone would ask Nat or Ryan about this, because if you stop and think about this, this has to be an edict from the top. It's not an accident that PSA graders don't issue half grades. And if they collectively don't, then what other edicts from the top are graders adhering to (aka pop control.)

So for people grading for resale value, half grades are like a "push" in sports betting. You have one more chance to not lose, and thus, better value option if you miss. PSA doesn't really use them at all, and other grading companies do, often with better grading accuracy and consistency.

[CaptSpaulding]

For resale on vintage, PSA was always the go to TPG. To the OP's post, the last 2 years the goal posts have moved and you can easily expect cards to be as much as 2 grade points lower than in prior years. It no longer makes sense to send them material if an 8 is a 6. So I have cut back my submissions dramatically.

SGC is still a very viable option for vintage and the price point for Hall of Fame players in grades under an 8 are right in line with what a PSA card in the same grade will bring.

I have been told repeatedly that grading standards have not changed and that grade distribution is consistent with prior years submission results, etc etc. One of two things must be true: Collectively we have all lost a step in being able to assess our cards and we are conspiring against PSA or their official position on this is total #@#@#@#@#@#@#@#@.

I know which option I think applies.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Gary

So again if im reading hm right you send the same card to PSA,SGC,BGS,CGC it comes back a PSA 8 but an 9 in the other TPG's that the card sells for more in the 9 than a PSA 8,add to that cost to grade.turn around time......it makes sense.......if like i say im reading him correctly.i have no idea if his data is correct but seems his theory is sound if the data backs it up.

That's what he's saying. I'm sure the numbers are good but forces one to make some assumptions that are simply not applicable or representative in all situations.

It kind of assumes the submitter sucks at differentiating strong gems from marginal ones (or strong mint from borderline on older stuff). Sure, send the marginal ones (especially if a corner is involved) to BGS. You probably will get better grades but these will come at a cost of taking a discount and having less liquidity on anything lower.

[dherm360]

My go to for Vintage is SGC--personal preference

I sent A 2015-16 McDavid to PSA got a 7....looked way better to me, it was cracked and got a BGS 9.5.

I am by means no expert, but it seems like PSA is gatekeeping grades on certain cards

[SLGSports]

Great example and close to home for me since I'm a McDavid collector. $216 value for that PSA 7 and $1230 for the BGS 9.5.

[CaptSpaulding]

Originally Posted by dherm360

My go to for Vintage is SGC--personal preference

I sent A 2015-16 McDavid to PSA got a 7....looked way better to me, it was cracked and got a BGS 9.5.

I am by means no expert, but it seems like PSA is gatekeeping grades on certain cards

For decades they have controlled the Pop Report. That goes hand in hand with their ongoing policy of the grade not being determined by the quality of the card but the quality of the submitter.

[discodanman45]

PSA is about the gamble. If you get the right grader on the right day, you can win the lotto. Even then though, they will upcharge you and there goes a big chunk of your win.

I have been noticing that PSA has been slabbing cards up like garbage recently. Having them float around in slabs, putting them in sleeves in slabs not designed for them, and putting stupid plastic around cards. It seems like if they run out of slabs, they will put cards in anything they have lying around.

[49erRCCollector]

I’m not trying to be dismissive, but none of this matters.

PSA raised prices and I’d guess they just make more money than before.

Stop being logical.

[Gary]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That's what he's saying. I'm sure the numbers are good but forces one to make some assumptions that are simply not applicable or representative in all situations.

It kind of assumes the submitter sucks at differentiating strong gems from marginal ones (or strong mint from borderline on older stuff). Sure, send the marginal ones (especially if a corner is involved) to BGS. You probably will get better grades but these will come at a cost of taking a discount and having less liquidity on anything lower.

I viewed it the opposite myself,seems hes saying PSA is grading cards that historically would be 1-2 grades higher than they do today....didn't seem he was suggesting the submitter was lacking.or did i misunderstand your post?

[Gary]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

I’m not trying to be dismissive, but none of this matters.

PSA raised prices and I’d guess they just make more money than before.

Stop being logical.

Until it does,ask BGS how things can change.years ago anyone suggesting anything negative about PSA was summarily shut down.....no so much today....things can and do change.PSA knows this clearly as they bought SGC before fanatics could,But for now ill agree we are no where near a PSA crash......That does not mean it cant or wont happen at some point.

Any better option appears people will bail on PSA just like they did to BGS.its about money only there is no loyalty in this equation.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by Gary

Any better option appears people will bail on PSA just like they did to BGS.its about money only there is no loyalty in this equation.

I agree. I’m down on them now because they changed an established, borderline universally accepted grading scale and have simply trashed multiple entire bulk orders of mine for no good reason. But they are so safe right now.

I’d like to reiterate—the other “option” you mentioned doesn’t necessarily mean another grading company. It can simply mean the option to not grade. IMO, this is PSA’s current #1 competitor. If people aren’t making the grade or the profit—they could lose interest. They could collect a different way. They could sell with a different model. BGS went down when it didn’t make sense to use them.

For years, PSA gave collectors BIG reasons to grade. 1. For collectors, a great way to chase and register high-grade examples of targeted cards. 2. For sellers—HUGE realized values and returns on their cards. Grading was essential to both. Now what’s the reason to grade? You aren’t going to get the high grade. Profits will be fewer and further between long stretches of losses—and they have both their hands in any available profit margin. They are systematically removing your top incentives to grade cards.

[Rpal1977]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

PSA is about the gamble. If you get the right grader on the right day, you can win the lotto. Even then though, they will upcharge you and there goes a big chunk of your win.

I have been noticing that PSA has been slabbing cards up like garbage recently. Having them float around in slabs, putting them in sleeves in slabs not designed for them, and putting stupid plastic around cards. It seems like if they run out of slabs, they will put cards in anything they have lying around.

Do you mean something like this

[MavsRChamps]

I'll say with the cost of grading - unless it's 90's inserts - I'm not seeing much premium at all for PSA 8 or 9 cards for cards. So if one does get a harsh grader you're really screwed. Cards in particular from 2005-2015 are pretty undervalued in PSA 8/9 grades in my opinion, as I routinely see Raw cards that are clearly dinged up from this time period (and would grade PSA 8 at best) sell for more than PSA 7/8's.

PSA is still best ROI in my opinion (outside of vintage perhaps), but just have to be very particular on what you send in. If a card won't gem most likely you'll lose money with every grading company.