Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by NickyCards

Went to the 400-500 table show yesterday. Slim pickings, and I’ve seen multiple people say that about other bigger shows as well.

i think it has a lot to do with what one collects

[StellaBlue71]

Originally Posted by NickyCards

Went to the 400-500 table show yesterday. Slim pickings, and I’ve seen multiple people say that about other bigger shows as well.

Hofstra Show?

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by Brazenways

Low quality sh1t post but kudos for logging in and taking the time to do it.

thanks for the laugh

[dirtywax]

Originally Posted by Brazenways

Low quality sh1t post but kudos for logging in and taking the time to do it.

He's worst poster on here and it's not close. Really saying something. Sad.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Everybody is trying to flip the same small group of players/cards to each other.

And it doesn't help that Fanatics is so far behind schedule releasing new products, since new product releases are the lifeblood of the hobby.

In baseball, no sign of popular products like Stadium Club, Archives, Chrome Platinum, HHN, etc., and only one basketball product released in the first month. And no 25/26 season soccer products out yet either.

You need to get over this. Seasonality has been irrelevant for years now. Do you want to argue that Fanatics is hurting their business with these “delayed” releases? People buy the cards regardless. And getting Cooper Flagg RCs in spring 2027 sounds pretty appealing.

[hammerva]

Seasonal is relevant in sports card if your main business is speculating on stars and rookies with long term potential. Guys like Cooper Flagg should be solid for a couple years regarding of how overrated or underrated he is. Willing to bet guys like Ashton Jeanty follow this on the football side. But for guys like a JJ McCarthy or a Cam Ward and maybe 75% of the current NBA rookies, I am sure you want his rookie cards as quick as possible

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by dirtywax

He's worst poster on here and it's not close. Really saying something. Sad.

What’s the matter, Lesciatica’s got you down?

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by hammerva

Seasonal is relevant in sports card if your main business is speculating on stars and rookies with long term potential. Guys like Cooper Flagg should be solid for a couple years regarding of how overrated or underrated he is. Willing to bet guys like Ashton Jeanty follow this on the football side. But for guys like a JJ McCarthy or a Cam Ward and maybe 75% of the current NBA rookies, I am sure you want his rookie cards as quick as possible

It’s all balanced out in the end. For every Cags type there’s a Nick Kurtz. And the hobby still overvalues guys who come up and clearly haven’t put it together yet.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

It’s all balanced out in the end. For every Cags type there’s a Nick Kurtz. And the hobby still overvalues guys who come up and clearly haven’t put it together yet.

Truth. Some Luis Robert stuff still fetches decent money.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Do you want to argue that Fanatics is hurting their business with these “delayed” releases? People buy the cards regardless.

Depends what you think their "business" is.

If it's selling to breakers, then no, they're probably not hurting their business too much, because breakers are still buying just about anything at any price.

But they are alienating long-term collectors like me, and/or collectors on a budget who might want to buy a box or two here or there. And the money that people like me may have allocated for spending on a new release (Platinum Anniversary in my case) is getting spent elsewhere instead.

However, my comment was more about the fact that with fewer new products being released, there are fewer new cards entering circulation, thus making shows a bit less exciting.

[ThoseBackPages]

you continue to think that Fanatics cares about you and what you do with your money

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Depends what you think their "business" is.

If it's selling to breakers, then no, they're probably not hurting their business too much, because breakers are still buying just about anything at any price.

But they are alienating long-term collectors like me, and/or collectors on a budget who might want to buy a box or two here or there. And the money that people like me may have allocated for spending on a new release (Platinum Anniversary in my case) is getting spent elsewhere instead.

However, my comment was more about the fact that with fewer new products being released, there are fewer new cards entering circulation, thus making shows a bit less exciting.

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

you continue to think that Fanatics cares about you and what you do with your money

Fanatics would care if he was actually spending "real" money. But spending a couple hundred dollars every 3-6 months means nothing them (or anyone).

A business that caters to non-spenders wouldn't be able to stay afloat.

Reality is, those long-term non-spenders have been replaced many others....too many others even.

But some people still think gas is $1/gallon, Apple is $1/share, median home prices are $50k-$100k, etc.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by mfw13

However, my comment was more about the fact that with fewer new products being released, there are fewer new cards entering circulation, thus making shows a bit less exciting.

Valid point, but shows have been getting less interesting for a while now as more and more tables get filled with showcases full of slabs and Pokémon binders. There's simply fewer cards to pick through which is my favorite thing to do at a show. If I want a specific slab, odds are I can buy it online on a random Monday night. Fortunately, this is offset to some degree by simply having more shows to attend these days.

I did hit a smaller show in western North Dakota of all places on Saturday. Found a few dealers with boxes to pick through. Found just enough to justify a 100 mile drive each way.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Fanatics would care if he was actually spending "real" money. But spending a couple hundred dollars every 3-6 months means nothing them (or anyone).

A business that caters to non-spenders wouldn't be able to stay afloat.

Reality is, those long-term non-spenders have been replaced many others....too many others even.

Of course, Fanatics cares a lot more about its big spenders (i.e. breakers) than its small spenders like me. But IMHO, that's short term thinking, because the people who are in it only to make money are much more likely to disappear when they stop making money.

I'll still be collecting sports cards in 10 years.....where will all the flippers be? Heck, it already looks like some of them are starting to move towards Pokeman/TCG.

[Twalk1975]

Considering how much time is spent dwelling on the price of wax, im kinda surprised to see people lamenting the lack of fresh singles at shows. If you're at a show looking for singles from the latest product, I would think you're almost certainly going to overpay for them.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

If you're at a show looking for singles from the latest product, I would think you're almost certainly going to overpay for them.

It goes both ways. Sometimes they're priced at a premium but sometimes the rippers blow out the non "big hits", don't realize they even have a hit, or simply price them incorrectly owing to no or limited comps (or laziness to check). This is especially true once you start getting away from the top 5 or 10 names in the hobby.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Depends what you think their "business" is.

If it's selling to breakers, then no, they're probably not hurting their business too much, because breakers are still buying just about anything at any price.

But they are alienating long-term collectors like me, and/or collectors on a budget who might want to buy a box or two here or there. And the money that people like me may have allocated for spending on a new release (Platinum Anniversary in my case) is getting spent elsewhere instead.

However, my comment was more about the fact that with fewer new products being released, there are fewer new cards entering circulation, thus making shows a bit less exciting.

You have a tendency to over complicate things. Their business is to make money. Their primary goal right now is to grow revenue as much as possible before the IPO. They’re not holding back releases. They are managing their supply chain as best they can. Smashing successes like Topps Chrome SpongeBob may delay baseball sets until they can get the supply chain to where it needs to be. None of this happens over night. They seem to be doing quite well.

[ThoseBackPages]

i am excited to see Sapphire Spongebob

[Picklepete]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

My buyer still has no money but managed to open a hobby and jumbo basketball box. He tried to flip for resale but created a bigger hole.

Some folks are in really bad shape out there.

They are in bad shape because of their stupidity !

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Fanatics would care if he was actually spending "real" money. But spending a couple hundred dollars every 3-6 months means nothing them (or anyone).

A business that caters to non-spenders wouldn't be able to stay afloat.

Reality is, those long-term non-spenders have been replaced many others....too many others even.

But some people still think gas is $1/gallon, Apple is $1/share, median home prices are $50k-$100k, etc.

This is pretty arrogant. Fanatics can cater to lower-spending hobbyists if they want to. But they are prioritizing higher prices and market valuation over long-term sustainability. They are treating trading cards as a luxury item and gambling product for the well-off. This is a short-term strategy that inflates revenue in the near term, but will shrink the overall market in the long-term.

This hobby is not 10xing -- bank on it.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

This is pretty arrogant. Fanatics can cater to lower-spending hobbyists if they want to. But they are prioritizing higher prices and market valuation over long-term sustainability. They are treating trading cards as a luxury item and gambling product for the well-off. This is a short-term strategy that inflates revenue in the near term, but will shrink the overall market in the long-term.

This hobby is not 10xing -- bank on it.

How can you say this when they just released their flagship basketball product to the market in pallets and every store was fully stocked with affordable retail? They made sure there was plenty of $24.99 blasters on the shelves for lower-spending hobbyists with good odds of hitting at least some base and inserts of the top rookies.

$500 jumbo boxes may be out of reach, but that wasn't Fanatics price. The market drove those up. But considering the money can be spent on 20 blasters instead, that's probably the better bang for your buck.

They are absolutely going to 10x, and it's going to happen because they've fixed the problems with retail. Those SKUs are good enough to sell what they need to sell, but not so great that flippers are camping out. Mega Boxes have become the new hobby box for the budget-conscious collector. Basketball will prove that they nailed the formula.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

This is pretty arrogant. Fanatics can cater to lower-spending hobbyists if they want to. But they are prioritizing higher prices and market valuation over long-term sustainability. They are treating trading cards as a luxury item and gambling product for the well-off. This is a short-term strategy that inflates revenue in the near term, but will shrink the overall market in the long-term.

This hobby is not 10xing -- bank on it.

Fanatics purchased Topps in January 2022, and people here have been saying the bolded nonsense since day 1. So we’re 4 years into this now. How long is your short-term window? The hobby feels bigger than ever. By participation and dollars. You can’t continue to say this indefinitely.

And by what metric is the hobby not going to 10x? Active participants might be tough. Revenue and income won’t be. Not for Fanatics at least.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

This is pretty arrogant. Fanatics can cater to lower-spending hobbyists if they want to. But they are prioritizing higher prices and market valuation over long-term sustainability. They are treating trading cards as a luxury item and gambling product for the well-off. This is a short-term strategy that inflates revenue in the near term, but will shrink the overall market in the long-term.

This hobby is not 10xing -- bank on it.

I wonder if the long term retention rate is actually better than its ever been? Almost no one i knew who collected as a kid in the junk wax era stuck with it more than a few years. Same with TCGs in the mid 90's, almost everyone i played with was in for a few years, then dropped out. I know more people who've gotten back into cards in the past ten years, and stuck with it than I have at any time in the last thirty years. I guess we'll have to look back 5-10 years from now to see if it holds this time.

[theshowandme]

People I was seeing at shows 2021-2023 are not there anymore

But still seeing a lot of new faces, especially as Pokemon is having its moment. More moms and kids at shows. Also more women setting up as dealers.

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

This is pretty arrogant. Fanatics can cater to lower-spending hobbyists if they want to. But they are prioritizing higher prices and market valuation over long-term sustainability. They are treating trading cards as a luxury item and gambling product for the well-off. This is a short-term strategy that inflates revenue in the near term, but will shrink the overall market in the long-term.

This hobby is not 10xing -- bank on it.

Historically, the hobby has always been boom/bust. You can go back to tobacco cards to see the pattern. Sometimes it's interest, sometimes it's the product, sometimes it's companies getting in over their heads. Whether Fanatics can 10x the hobby is not -- in my opinion -- the biggest question. The question is whether they can break or at least significantly mitigate the boom/bust cycle.