PSA no longer represents the best ROI (a data analysis)

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by FT35

When 40+% of them are clear cut “perfect card” 10’s with nothing putting them in 9 slabs but pure incompetence/10 pop control.

When the same cards in lesser condition come back 10’s for mega submitters like 4SC.

Also when large chunks of your order come back damaged cards in 9 slabs (that no one would buy/keep without sending back if sold).

Simply put, 9’s are bad if the 9 is not accurate. Kinda like someone offering to give you $30 for your $100 dollar bill…this is when $30 became “a bad thing.”

I get that

But the point is, if someone crying on here about not getting 10's gets a 10 that clearly isn't a 10 are they going to complain or send back for a regrade? Hell no

People don't want accurate grades they want 10's

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by 88horsepower

The “10s” that 4SC gets are often laughable. I keep a little folder with some of their worst PSA 10s and it’s silly how often they get what looks like it should be a 9 or 8, at best.

Yet you continue to send in subs to PSA and continue to get clapped on the subs

Einstein's insanity quote fits a lot of people who grade, "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results'

[Dragonman]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I get that

But the point is, if someone crying on here about not getting 10's gets a 10 that clearly isn't a 10 are they going to complain or send back for a regrade? Hell no

People don't want accurate grades they want 10's

BINGO...They just want 10s....When you get a 9 the grader is telling you that your card is in MINT condition. Which is a win

[BlowoutBuzz]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

According to GemRate data from the third week of October, CGC was the only grading company with a week-over-week submissions increase in both sports and TCG. PSA, SGC, and BGS were all down. So CGC is gaining market share much faster than you're suggesting.

I use CGC exclusively for subbing -- and not just for cards -- and see a lot here I agree with in terms of inconsistency based on my PSA buys and one sub a while back that irked me. At same time, CGC just had a pair of sales/promotions with strong discounts ... so their volumes should be up for a bit.

[inaka]

Originally Posted by Dragonman

BINGO...They just want 10s....When you get a 9 the grader is telling you that your card is in MINT condition. Which is a win

But now, at least for modern, it has become:

"When you get a 9 the grader is telling you that your card is in MINT condition. Which is a win. Which is a loss because now your modern PSA 9 is worth less than raw."

Crack and resubmit!
The only winner is PSA.

[MavsRChamps]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I get that

But the point is, if someone crying on here about not getting 10's gets a 10 that clearly isn't a 10 are they going to complain or send back for a regrade? Hell no

People don't want accurate grades they want 10's

Constructive criticism does not equal complaining and crying. The posters critiquing PSA in this thread are making perfect sense, despite your childish and rude response back at them making it personal by accusing other posters of “crying”. I’m sure the relationships in your life are just wonderful when you receive constructive feedback.

[88horsepower]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Yet you continue to send in subs to PSA and continue to get clapped on the subs

Einstein's insanity quote fits a lot of people who grade, "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results'

I have, as of two months ago, cancelled my subscription renewal to PSA and have ceased sending them cards. In fact, I'm the process of selling most of my PSA graded cards. In fact, in many of the PSA threads here I have stated this and vocalized my complaints for the direction PSA has gone in.

[RKH916]

Originally Posted by inaka

But now, at least for modern, it has become:

"When you get a 9 the grader is telling you that your card is in MINT condition. Which is a win. Which is a loss because now your modern PSA 9 is worth less than raw."

Crack and resubmit!
The only winner is PSA.

I hate PSA, but this is hardly their fault. They simply adjust their business to the market like any profit seeking venture would. The influx of flipperbois and investorbros has driven the PSA 10 premium through the roof. The "buy the card, not the grade" phrase has very little grounding in reality for 95% of the buyer market. They're literally paying for two numbers on a dot matrix label. The grade designations of "mnt" "gem mnt" might as well be removed from the card because they're largely meaningless now.

It is the epitome of an irrational marketplace.

I've stated it before and will state it again:

You are absolutely insane if you're a collector and you're buying PSA 10's over BGS 9.5's. Most people think you're running the risk of a BGS 9.5 crossing to a PSA 9, but fail to realise that 90% of the PSA 10's in circulation would only cross to minimum gem BGS 9.5's at most. Moreover, depending on the era and the set, BGS true gems (quad 9.5 subgrades) are actually statistically harder to attain than PSA 10's.

I think Probstein found this out the hard way when he tried crossing some PSA 10 Fleer '86 Jordan's to BGS 10's. Ended up with minimum gems at best.

The only place the PSA premium should exist is for set collectors, thanks largely to their set registry, which no competitor has bothered trying to replicate.

People submit to PSA for the same reason PSA practices business the way they do: recognition that the vast majority of people in the "hobby" are idiots and the "PSA" and "10" on a crappy label are all that matters

The proper response to this irrational market is to take advantage of it as a collector. Accumulate the 9's that you can get for cheaper than raw. Many of them are undergraded due to PSA's questionable business practices and might have a chance of crossing to minimum gems.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I get that

But the point is, if someone crying on here about not getting 10's gets a 10 that clearly isn't a 10 are they going to complain or send back for a regrade? Hell no

People don't want accurate grades they want 10's

In some cases you would be right. Just not here on this one. There are many people on here who have been subbing for decades and have seen a major change in how cards are graded. I’m not some dude complaining because they sent their 6 new Prizm base cards in for grading and are ticked because they got 9’s…. Like many here, I built a modern era grading strategy for my collection on a 60-80% gem rate over the course of 20+ years and thousands of cards. Overnight, our grades dropped by 2 full grades across the board and we started getting gem rates under 20% (sometimes well under 10%) it’s not “crying” to throw a challenge flag to see what on earth is causing such a major change—especially since it was going on for over a year before any type of change was even mentioned to the public by PSA.

My last 3 PSA orders consisted of over 160 cards. Many of those cards were lower end cards specifically sent because they were “absolute 10’s.” I received a total of 7 PSA 10’s in those 3 orders. My last submission?? 1 for 56 (even though there were 15 or so cards that I knew would not be 10’s, so call it 1 for 40 to be more fair). I’m a 60-80% gem rate submitter over the last 20 years or so. My understanding of the grading process did not suddenly drop by 2 grades! I also had around 25 cards in those 160ish that came back damaged—Zero in the 19 years prior (again—that was literally thousands of cards with zero damage but a staggering 15+% DAMAGE RATE in the last year). I documented some pics in another thread. Call it whatever you want, but in my opinion, it’s truly not “crying” or “complaining” in any way to call out a company who literally sells good judgement and good protection for dramatically wrong judgement and carelessness causing damage (effecting MANY cards at $20+ a pop) becoming the new norm.

[49erRCCollector]

If your floor was 60% in the GOOD times, it’s not shocking your returns are relatively gem-less since things tightened up.

I send a lot of 90s-00s but still do pretty well these days. But I’m super OCD and only send flawed cards if that’s the best I can get for that card.

(This is not meant to be aggressive, just an observation)

[FT35]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

If your floor was 60% in the GOOD times, it’s not shocking your returns are relatively gem-less since things tightened up.

I send a lot of 90s-00s but still do pretty well these days. But I’m super OCD and only send flawed cards if that’s the best I can get for that card.

(This is not meant to be aggressive, just an observation)

For sure! Contrary to the stereotype of all who “complain,” I’m not just a 10 or bust submitter. I sub many cards that I know will not gem. That’s where the 60% orders come from. I’ve had bulk 100+ card subs in the 90%+ gem rate range in the past—on stuff that I sub mainly because of condition. Those are the orders that illustrate an understanding on what a 10 is/should be. That’s why when I submit an order of say 80 cards that mostly “should gem,” and 3 come back 10’s—I question things. My decision to document it here is less a complaint (no one here can fix anything) and more an alert to others.

Better put, my expected grades on bulk subs used to align almost perfectly with actual results (for nearly 20 years). You’d have the head scratcher card here and there, but grades were always either what you thought or maybe 1 grade off. Now you have many people reporting head scratcher bulk subs where grades are 2-4 grades off from your expected numbers—not even in the ballpark—suggesting a major disconnect in the grading scale interpretation itself by the grader/AI machine. Multiple YouTube videos of entire 100-200 card bulk subs getting cracked and resubmitted for drastically different grades. These are $2,500-$4,000+ orders that are getting cracked and resubmitted (for another $2,500-$4,000+ of course)! You’re now paying over $5,000 to get 150 cards in the correct slabs—assuming the resub is correct! Plus there’s now regular damage to the cards. These things never used to happen.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by FT35

For sure! Contrary to the stereotype of all who “complain,” I’m not just a 10 or bust submitter. I sub many cards that I know will not gem. That’s where the 60% orders come from. I’ve had bulk 100+ card subs in the 90%+ gem rate range in the past—on stuff that I sub mainly because of condition. Those are the orders that illustrate an understanding on what a 10 is/should be. That’s why when I submit an order of say 80 cards that mostly “should gem,” and 3 come back 10’s—I question things. My decision to document it here is less a complaint (no one here can fix anything) and more an alert to others.

Better put, my expected grades on bulk subs used to align almost perfectly with actual results (for nearly 20 years). You’d have the head scratcher card here and there, but grades were always either what you thought or maybe 1 grade off. Now you have many people reporting head scratcher bulk subs where grades are 2-4 grades off from your expected numbers—not even in the ballpark—suggesting a major disconnect in the grading scale interpretation itself by the grader/AI machine. Multiple YouTube videos of entire 100-200 card bulk subs getting cracked and resubmitted for drastically different grades. These are $2,500-$4,000+ orders that are getting cracked and resubmitted (for another $2,500-$4,000+ of course)! You’re now paying over $5,000 to get 150 cards in the correct slabs—assuming the resub is correct! Plus there’s now regular damage to the cards. These things never used to happen.

OK, that makes sense, then.

There was like 1-2 subs a few years ago, post-Covid that I genuinely think I got screwed on but for the most part the cards are right where I think they should be.

My last sub was:

Eight 10s.
Five 9s.
Six 8s. (two of these I thought could have been 10s...)
One 7 (super condition sensitive, probably a correct grade)

But overall? Probably fair grades.

I see everyone complaining but I haven't really been destroyed unfairly lately.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

OK, that makes sense, then.

There was like 1-2 subs a few years ago, post-Covid that I genuinely think I got screwed on but for the most part the cards are right where I think they should be.

My last sub was:

Eight 10s.
Five 9s.
Six 8s. (two of these I thought could have been 10s...)
One 7 (super condition sensitive, probably a correct grade)

But overall? Probably fair grades.

I see everyone complaining but I haven't really been destroyed unfairly lately.

I’m glad to hear that the hammer hasn’t dropped on you! Those results sound pretty good actually. The cards that I’ve seen the most change (at least on my subs) are anything prior to ultra modern. 80’s and 90’s stuff has been the worst by far. 2000’s are rough too. I haven’t seen much of a change with ultra modern stuff but I don’t sub as much of that to see a large enough sample size.

Funny way of putting things into perspective—I use a loupe to look at stuff but I actually got glasses thinking my eye sight must be why I’m getting low grades! I defaulted to my own fault originally thinking “I must have missed something!” It didn’t help…of all the “glasses subs” early this year, my gem rate hit rock bottom…lol. I’m not subbing until I see things restore to normal for PSA.

[SLGSports]

It seems that PSA still gives out 10s at a decent rate... but only if it's ultra modern cards. Once they've seen a card a bunch of times, they find EVERY issue and your grade suffers. Good luck getting a 10 on a card more than a few years old.

My theory is that they're capturing common card-specific issues and logging them in an effort to speed up future grading. Unfortunately, this introduces severe bias and unfairness for submitters who expect a level playing field, regardless of when a card is submitted.

Either that or their AI models find more issues the more they see a specific card.

[inaka]

Originally Posted by SLGSports

My theory is that they're capturing common card-specific issues and logging them in an effort to speed up future grading. Unfortunately, this introduces severe bias and unfairness for submitters who expect a level playing field, regardless of when a card is submitted.

I think your theory gives PSA too much credit as if they are deeply analyzing notes and card history, when in actuality they are glancing at a card for an average of 30 seconds. My theory is:

Some bean counter raised his hand during an exclusive PSA pop control meeting and said:

"Guys, why are we just doing pop control on a few select key cards from the 80s and 90s, like the Rickey Henderson and Ken Griffey Jr. rookies? Instead, why don't we just apply our same pop control measures to all 80s/90s cards, and then people will be sending in countless Bo Jackson 1990 Score cards (and the like) in droves, gambling on grading to hit a PSA 10. But we're the only ones that hold the key to allow that to happen, so the less 10s we give out, the more the 10 value rises, and the more people gamble to get a PSA 10. You know, like the unregulated gambling we're setting up with PowerPacks™??"

There was brief silence for a moment in the meeting, and then everyone applauded.

Don't tell the graders, but just have Johnson in engineering develop an algorithm filter that flips any PSA 10 grade to a 9 in the QA stage, based on a certain pop control percentage we bake into the system. Easy, and the graders themselves would never even know, and even if they did, they have an NDA.

Because, you know, money.

[SLGSports]

lol, ironically, if Johnson in engineering would +1 to grades, PSA would have a lot of happy customers... and would get a lot more money via upcharges too

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by MavsRChamps

Constructive criticism does not equal complaining and crying. The posters critiquing PSA in this thread are making perfect sense, despite your childish and rude response back at them making it personal by accusing other posters of “crying”. I’m sure the relationships in your life are just wonderful when you receive constructive feedback.

How was that childish and rude? They really don't want accurate grades, they want 10's so they can flip

What they self grade a card as at home through their little loupe and microfiber cloth and w/e else they use doesn't mean that PSA will agree

Grading is an opinion (unless it's AI)

At this point, the easy 10's are gone

End result? Whine and cry about it

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by FT35

In some cases you would be right. Just not here on this one. There are many people on here who have been subbing for decades and have seen a major change in how cards are graded. I’m not some dude complaining because they sent their 6 new Prizm base cards in for grading and are ticked because they got 9’s…. Like many here, I built a modern era grading strategy for my collection on a 60-80% gem rate over the course of 20+ years and thousands of cards. Overnight, our grades dropped by 2 full grades across the board and we started getting gem rates under 20% (sometimes well under 10%) it’s not “crying” to throw a challenge flag to see what on earth is causing such a major change—especially since it was going on for over a year before any type of change was even mentioned to the public by PSA.

My last 3 PSA orders consisted of over 160 cards. Many of those cards were lower end cards specifically sent because they were “absolute 10’s.” I received a total of 7 PSA 10’s in those 3 orders. My last submission?? 1 for 56 (even though there were 15 or so cards that I knew would not be 10’s, so call it 1 for 40 to be more fair). I’m a 60-80% gem rate submitter over the last 20 years or so. My understanding of the grading process did not suddenly drop by 2 grades! I also had around 25 cards in those 160ish that came back damaged—Zero in the 19 years prior (again—that was literally thousands of cards with zero damage but a staggering 15+% DAMAGE RATE in the last year). I documented some pics in another thread. Call it whatever you want, but in my opinion, it’s truly not “crying” or “complaining” in any way to call out a company who literally sells good judgement and good protection for dramatically wrong judgement and carelessness causing damage (effecting MANY cards at $20+ a pop) becoming the new norm.

There's most peoples problem, you're going off the past when they just slapped a grade on it

With technology now, grades in theory, should be more accurate

The damage rate is a whole different issue

If PSA is in fact damaging cards, that should be addressed and discussed

But the "I self graded my card a 10 and PSA said 9" then whining about it and having a small meltdown is crazy coming from an adult

[FT35]

Originally Posted by Blazed

There's most peoples problem, you're going off the past when they just slapped a grade on it

With technology now, grades in theory, should be more accurate

The damage rate is a whole different issue

If PSA is in fact damaging cards, that should be addressed and discussed

But the "I self graded my card a 10 and PSA said 9" then whining about it and having a small meltdown is crazy coming from an adult

We’re all glad you’ve got it all figured out.

[Gary]

Originally Posted by Blazed

How was that childish and rude? They really don't want accurate grades, they want 10's so they can flip

What they self grade a card as at home through their little loupe and microfiber cloth and w/e else they use doesn't mean that PSA will agree

Grading is an opinion (unless it's AI)

At this point, the easy 10's are gone

End result? Whine and cry about it

Grading has standards its based on the standards listed on PSA's site.........its not an opinion.Guys need to stop with all the "opinion" talk.....im sure your job has standards and doubt you could tell your boss well never mind the standards my opinion is correct.you wouldn't have a job very long.PSA is incompetent at best and a scam to make money to do the job a second time and get paid again.When you get a 7 and crack to re sub and it comes back a 10.......thats incompetency period.


Damaging cards,mislabels,slabs not sealed correctly,,slabbing cards that are labeled "dont not encapsulate".min sizing cards that are not min size........slabbing trimmed cards because its a large submitter.......pop control...........so on and so forth.......did you see the 75 rack break that had 2 10's the PSA big wig just happen to need for his pc?there is zero defense for PSA at this point,anyone that cant see that is in pure denial.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by Gary

Grading has standards its based on the standards listed on PSA's site.........its not an opinion.Guys need to stop with all the "opinion" talk.....im sure your job has standards and doubt you could tell your boss well never mind the standards my opinion is correct.you wouldn't have a job very long.PSA is incompetent at best and a scam to make money to do the job a second time and get paid again.When you get a 7 and crack to re sub and it comes back a 10.......thats incompetency period.


Damaging cards,mislabels,slabs not sealed correctly,,slabbing cards that are labeled "dont not encapsulate".min sizing cards that are not min size........slabbing trimmed cards because its a large submitter.......pop control...........so on and so forth.......did you see the 75 rack break that had 2 10's the PSA big wig just happen to need for his pc?there is zero defense for PSA at this point,anyone that cant see that is in pure denial.

100% agree and I’m right there with you.

Oh…sorry, I mean:

“Just your opinion, sounds like you just a mad childish adult flipper because you only want 10’s not accuracy, AMIRITE, bruh? Invest!”

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by gary

grading has standards its based on the standards listed on psa's site.........its not an opinion.guys need to stop with all the "opinion" talk.....im sure your job has standards and doubt you could tell your boss well never mind the standards my opinion is correct.you wouldn't have a job very long.psa is incompetent at best and a scam to make money to do the job a second time and get paid again.when you get a 7 and crack to re sub and it comes back a 10.......thats incompetency period.


damaging cards,mislabels,slabs not sealed correctly,,slabbing cards that are labeled "dont not encapsulate". Min sizing cards that are not min size........slabbing trimmed cards because its a large submitter.......pop control...........so on and so forth.......did you see the 75 rack break that had 2 10's the psa big wig just happen to need for his pc?there is zero defense for psa at this point,anyone that cant see that is in pure denial.

You can crack a 7 it comes back a 10, and 2 big wig's got PSA 10's that weren't really 10's.... yet there's "standards", how is that possible?

It sounds like there's no standards

I use PSA, I get it

There's no transparency, no "here's how we got the grade", no nothing just the grade (except on higher tiers and even the grader notes are iffy as can be seen on some of mine) that's why PSA said the grader notes are for personal use only lol

That said, PSA isn't the problem, submitters are (me included)

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by FT35

100% agree and I’m right there with you.

Oh…sorry, I mean:

“Just your opinion, sounds like you just a mad childish adult flipper because you only want 10’s not accuracy, AMIRITE, bruh? Invest!”

That was childish and funny

Bet you were swinging your feet in your chair as you typed that out lol

I would have used ese though not bruh

[Gary]

Originally Posted by Blazed

You can crack a 7 it comes back a 10, and 2 big wig's got PSA 10's that weren't really 10's.... yet there's "standards", how is that possible?

It sounds like there's no standards

I use PSA, I get it

There's no transparency, no "here's how we got the grade", no nothing just the grade (except on higher tiers and even the grader notes are iffy as can be seen on some of mine) that's why PSA said the grader notes are for personal use only lol

That said, PSA isn't the problem, submitters are (me included)

The standards are on PSA's site.thats how its possible........i agree they do not follow them hence the incompetent statement at best and scam at worst.and PSA is the problem how can it be the submitter's fault a 7 resub gets a 10?or a trimmed card gets slab with a number grade?or a card gets damaged,or a min size thats not min sized gets returned?ect so forth......


if by the submitter fault your talking about expecting 10's and getting 9's because they didn't inspect their cards well enough yeah ok i get that.......but thats not at all what i was saying n the post you replied to.