Just curious, if you collect current players, but don't collect Ohtani, tell me why?

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by FatboyWu

Negative expected value, down in value...value long term,...you sure you're not an investor? Lol.

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And that's the number one reason to not collect him if you're not in the top 1% of earners. It becomes a de facto investment -- the prices are just too high for them not to be. You can't treat it like a hobby if you don't have enough money to burn.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

And that's the number one reason to not collect him if you're not in the top 1% of earners. It becomes a de facto investment -- the prices are just too high for them not to be. You can't treat it like a hobby if you don't have enough money to burn.

If you are not in the top 1% of earners should you not open new wax products when they come out especially hobby boxes? They are also super expensive.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by FatboyWu

Negative expected value, down in value...value long term,...you sure you're not an investor? Lol.

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I do have a business degree with a concentration in finance...hence the terminology! I do not "invest" in sports cards at least not in a traditional sense. I invest in my retirement accounts and a few others (401k, Roth IRA, HSA, 529) and also have some real estate investments as well as my house. I try to make sure I invest a certain percentage of my income so I can have a comfortable retirement one day.

Sports cards is a hobby for me! In general hobbies cost money. If I buy cards and they become worthless (like my very large Wander Franco collection) is does not matter in the long run for my financial stability. Any money I put towards my hobby I can afford without credit or affecting my investments.

At the same time the hobby is much more fun for me if the cards I buy do go up in value. I don't buy cards to flip, and I rarely sell any of my cards. I like to buy and hold. I don't rip wax, because it seems like a huge gamble and has a net negative return, and I don't buy into breaks. I only collect baseball too. I really only buy singles, and sometimes a complete set. At this point I don't buy that much anymore, and I am mostly focused on my Ohtani RC card collection. I also realize buying any sports card is a gamble.

Its also why I started this thread. Everyone collects what they like. There is no right way to collect. I just think if you are like me and like to buy singles and not have to sell them then Ohtani seems like the best current player to collect even at today's prices.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I just think if you are like me and like to buy singles and not have to sell them then Ohtani seems like the best current player to collect even at today's prices.

That's the thing. Nobody is like you. We all have our own interests. Ohtani might be the best player. But for a whole lot of people he is not the best player to collect. Because we don't care about who the best player is. That's not why we collect who we collect. I don't own a single Ohtani card and don't plan to. I have zero interest in them. And I'm just as happy with my collection as you are with yours. That's the beauty of this hobby. We all have our own interests and can collect what we like. I guess we just have to leave it that you don't have to understand why people might not be interested in collecting Ohtani.

[Dredd84]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

That's the thing. Nobody is like you. We all have our own interests. Ohtani might be the best player. But for a whole lot of people he is not the best player to collect. Because we don't care about who the best player is. That's not why we collect who we collect. I don't own a single Ohtani card and don't plan to. I have zero interest in them. And I'm just as happy with my collection as you are with yours. That's the beauty of this hobby. We all have our own interests and can collect what we like. I guess we just have to leave it that you don't have to understand why people might not be interested in collecting Ohtani.

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[FatboyWu]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I do have a business degree with a concentration in finance...hence the terminology! I do not "invest" in sports cards at least not in a traditional sense. I invest in my retirement accounts and a few others (401k, Roth IRA, HSA, 529) and also have some real estate investments as well as my house. I try to make sure I invest a certain percentage of my income so I can have a comfortable retirement one day.

Sports cards is a hobby for me! In general hobbies cost money. If I buy cards and they become worthless (like my very large Wander Franco collection) is does not matter in the long run for my financial stability. Any money I put towards my hobby I can afford without credit or affecting my investments.

At the same time the hobby is much more fun for me if the cards I buy do go up in value. I don't buy cards to flip, and I rarely sell any of my cards. I like to buy and hold. I don't rip wax, because it seems like a huge gamble and has a net negative return, and I don't buy into breaks. I only collect baseball too. I really only buy singles, and sometimes a complete set. At this point I don't buy that much anymore, and I am mostly focused on my Ohtani RC card collection. I also realize buying any sports card is a gamble.

Its also why I started this thread. Everyone collects what they like. There is no right way to collect. I just think if you are like me and like to buy singles and not have to sell them then Ohtani seems like the best current player to collect even at today's prices.

I'm just giving you a little sh!t, there's no right or wrong way to collect, whatever makes you happy at the end of the day. You just present an interesting dichotomy, I don't doubt you're a collector, it's just so many posts are about value that it makes it seem like that's the only criteria that matters...not that there's anything wrong with that either. That damn Wander and Tatis gave you card PTSD.

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[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by FatboyWu

I'm just giving you a little sh!t, there's no right or wrong way to collect, whatever makes you happy at the end of the day. You just present an interesting dichotomy, I don't doubt you're a collector, it's just so many posts are about value that it makes it seem like that's the only criteria that matters...not that there's anything wrong with that either. That damn Wander and Tatis gave you card PTSD.

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I totally get it. And I really do have hobby PTSD from starting collecting during the covid bubble and from both Wander and Tatis. It really does affect the way I see the hobby. Especially as I see a ton of people posting/bragging how they made so much money in the hobby (including during covid) and how they all know how to time the market perfectly and always sell their cards at the top of the market to turn a profit.

[REGGIE206]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

It seem like there are people on here that would collect Ohtani if it wasn't for the price. And of all the current players, his prices are the highest (then Judge and Trout).

On the flip side, if you are buying wax at current prices, the chance of a good hit is very low and has a negative expected value compared to the cost.

If you collect other players, 99% of them will go down in value.

I guess I look at it as I get to collect one of the best players in Ohtani, and in the long run it is likely the price I pay will maintain its value long term.

Respectfully, based off history with modern baseball cards, this is not true. Even if Ohtani stays healthy and continues his amazing career, only a fraction of his cards will “maintain its value long term”. If you have a desired “key rookie card”, I can see it holding long term value.. but when “hobby king” players come to the end of their career and call it quits, a majority of their cards drop in value. I don’t know any modern baseball player that had every single card hold high value after their career was over.

“Baseball Hobby Kings” come and go. After Ohtani’s hype ends, a new hobby king will be crowned for the collectors & investors to go crazy about. Then, you will see a majority of Ohtani cards drop in value. Look at Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. At one time, they were on top of the hobby mountain. Only a selected few Pujols & Trout cards held their high value.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by REGGIE206

Respectfully, based off history with modern baseball cards, this is not true. Even if Ohtani stays healthy and continues his amazing career, only a fraction of his cards will “maintain its value long term”. If you have a desired “key rookie card”, I can see it holding long term value.. but when “hobby king” players come to the end of their career and call it quits, a majority of their cards drop in value. I don’t know any modern baseball player that had every single card hold high value after their career was over.

“Baseball Hobby Kings” come and go. After Ohtani’s hype ends, a new hobby king will be crowned for the collectors & investors to go crazy about. Then, you will see a majority of Ohtani cards drop in value. Look at Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. At one time, they were on top of the hobby mountain. Only a selected few Pujols & Trout cards held their high value.

i am going to push back on you a little here Brother

while its natural that cards will fade with time (and most of Ohtani's will simply due to sheer numbers made), i dont think comparing Ohtani to Trout (White American) and Pujols (Dominican) is fair.

as much as it pains me to say it, Ohtani has now passed Ichiro and is the Greatest Japanese born (heck, and Japanese American born) MLB Player of all time.

Trout is just one of a long line of white americans to succeed in the MLB, and in the hobby.
Same for Pujols (but i still have him as the Best Hispanic Player of all time)

But neither are Globally Hobby Popular

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by REGGIE206

Respectfully, based off history with modern baseball cards, this is not true. Even if Ohtani stays healthy and continues his amazing career, only a fraction of his cards will “maintain its value long term”. If you have a desired “key rookie card”, I can see it holding long term value.. but when “hobby king” players come to the end of their career and call it quits, a majority of their cards drop in value. I don’t know any modern baseball player that had every single card hold high value after their career was over.

“Baseball Hobby Kings” come and go. After Ohtani’s hype ends, a new hobby king will be crowned for the collectors & investors to go crazy about. Then, you will see a majority of Ohtani cards drop in value. Look at Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. At one time, they were on top of the hobby mountain. Only a selected few Pujols & Trout cards held their high value.

I think you might be under estimating Ohtani future hobby power. He is bigger than Trout and Pujols. His global demand is far greater than pretty much any other player throughout history. He is about to win his 4th MVP and he is still on his prime.

Do you really think demand for his cards is going to go down in the future or after he retires? His legend is just going to keep on growing. I expect him to be the hobby king indefinitely. Even after he retires. I could be completely off base. We will see 10 or so years down the line.

[Bcr]

Ohtani is in an extremely fortunate position. He caters to both of the biggest markets in the sport being Japanese and playing in LA. He plays on a superstar cast team which gives him the opportunity to be on the big stage for likely the rest of his career. Then there is obviously the uniqueness of him being a great pitcher and hitter.

The big question is how long will he hold up. He has had the best peak of any player in my opinion, but it's almost certain his arm will give out and who knows how long his bat will hold up. I'm looking forward to seeing how his whole career plays out.

Side note - if you compare Ohtani's 5 best seasons to Trouts their numbers are very close in a lot of categories. Mike Trout actually beats him in WAR.

[bblair_2002]

There's no doubt Ohtani is a great ballplayer but that aside,I feel the crash is gonna come.

Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want to but since his interpreter got jailed for stealing from Ohtani to pay off gambling debts,it does make me wonder how much knowledge Ohtani had of this or even if the interpreter took the fall for him. With the current NBA investigations I can see this moving to other sports and a possible revisit of Ohtani's case.

[asymmetricalbet]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Prices for Ohtani's 2024 Dodgers cards are certainly concerning as it reminds me of LeBron's first-year 2018-19 Lakers cards (and those cards crumbled over time). Obviously, different player and sport but I can't see such values sustaining over time.

This is a great point. I expect the whole 1st year Dodgers schtick to flame out over time just like it did for Lebron. Nobody cares. Historically this has never mattered for other players either. It's just a stupid gimmick for people to pump stuff and get people to overpay.

To the main question, I do collect some Ohtani and some Judge and some Soto. I have a little note on my phone with a corresponding color for each player as to whether, in buying terms, they are green light, yellow light or red light. To me, this summer, Ohtani was still a green light so I was buying, especially his non-rookie catalog of awesome cards. They were a bargain. He is now a red light for me. People are throwing money at anything. No value to be had except maybe more lower end PSA 10s with low pops of aesthetically pleasing cards.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you really think demand for his cards is going to go down in the future or after he retires? His legend is just going to keep on growing. I expect him to be the hobby king indefinitely. Even after he retires. I could be completely off base. We will see 10 or so years down the line.

Demand has to outpace supply. You seem to be forgetting that. In this era, it is a challenge.

MJ has done it because he hasn’t had licensed NBA cards in more than 15 years.

It took Kobe dying and new production stopping to move his cards.

I’m interested to see what happens with guys like LeBron and Ohtani, who will have tens of millions of non-base cards in existence by time they retire.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I think you might be under estimating Ohtani future hobby power. He is bigger than Trout and Pujols. His global demand is far greater than pretty much any other player throughout history. He is about to win his 4th MVP and he is still on his prime.

Do you really think demand for his cards is going to go down in the future or after he retires? His legend is just going to keep on growing. I expect him to be the hobby king indefinitely. Even after he retires. I could be completely off base. We will see 10 or so years down the line.

We may get a preview of what things will look like ten years from now in 2027. Some people are buying cards hoping to flip them, and I'm confident that is definitely true for Ohtani. Will they continue to buy or hold if they are looking at a potential lost season with nothing to move prices? I think if a lost season seems likely, we will see some of the demand drop out.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i am going to push back on you a little here Brother



while its natural that cards will fade with time (and most of Ohtani's will simply due to sheer numbers made), i dont think comparing Ohtani to Trout (White American) and Pujols (Dominican) is fair.



as much as it pains me to say it, Ohtani has now passed Ichiro and is the Greatest Japanese born (heck, and Japanese American born) MLB Player of all time.



Trout is just one of a long line of white americans to succeed in the MLB, and in the hobby.

Same for Pujols (but i still have him as the Best Hispanic Player of all time)



But neither are Globally Hobby Popular

That doesn't make him immune to the hype cycle that every single player in history experiences. His market may be global, but even those foreign collectors will wane a bit in their passion. Foreign collectors aren't somehow built different than we are. Market size doesn't insulate a market from natural market forces. There WILL be a late/post career dip, followed by a small bump for the HOF, then a slow rise over time like all vintage greats. It's as sure as death and taxes. Playing days hype is ALWAYS peak hype for a player's card market. If you buy during that time period, it takes decades for them to climb back to those levels.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

If you are not in the top 1% of earners should you not open new wax products when they come out especially hobby boxes? They are also super expensive.

Wax ripping can be viewed by gamblers as actively putting their money to work, hoping to turn a profit by hitting a valuable card -- no matter how wasteful it generally is. While collecting is basically sinking your money into something purely for the enjoyment of it with no expectation of financial benefit -- there is no financial strategy involved; there is a collecting strategy.

[KhalDrogo]

Only top 1% earners regularly ripping wax are the complete degens.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

That doesn't make him immune to the hype cycle that every single player in history experiences. His market may be global, but even those foreign collectors will wane a bit in their passion. Foreign collectors aren't somehow built different than we are. Market size doesn't insulate a market from natural market forces. There WILL be a late/post career dip, followed by a small bump for the HOF, then a slow rise over time like all vintage greats. It's as sure as death and taxes. Playing days hype is ALWAYS peak hype for a player's card market. If you buy during that time period, it takes decades for them to climb back to those levels.

Here is the thing about investing or collecting Ohtani cards. Even if Ohtani is viewed as the GOAT during his playing days, his career accomplishments and numbers will ultimately decide how he is viewed by future generations. And it is unlikely that future generations will view him as the GOAT, because he won't have the numbers or accomplishments to back it up -- he won't have more World Series wins than Mickey Mantle (7); he won't have more home runs than Barry Bonds (762) or Babe Ruth (714); he won't have 3,000 hits; he won't have the career WAR (156 bWAR) or Gold Gloves (12) of Willie Mays; it's very unlikely he has more MVPs than Barry Bonds (7).

That being said, Ohtani is a modern-day phenom. He is arguably the most skilled baseball player that ever existed. But is he the GOAT? Not in my opinion -- he DHs full-time for Pete's sake. Remember when the NL didn't even have the DH?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Here is the thing about investing or collecting Ohtani cards. Even if Ohtani is viewed as the GOAT during his playing days, his career accomplishments and numbers will ultimately decide how he is viewed by future generations. And it is unlikely that future generations will view him as the GOAT, because he won't have the numbers or accomplishments to back it up -- he won't have more World Series wins than Mickey Mantle (7); he won't have more home runs than Barry Bonds (762) or Babe Ruth (714); he won't have 3,000 hits; he won't have the career WAR (156 bWAR) or Gold Gloves (12) of Willie Mays; it's very unlikely he has more MVPs than Barry Bonds (7).

That being said, Ohtani is a modern-day phenom. He is arguably the most skilled baseball player that ever existed. But is he the GOAT? Not in my opinion -- he DHs full-time for Pete's sake. Remember when the NL didn't even have the DH?

a large number of us will be dead by then.

Collect and enjoy what we are witnessing, or dont.

[StlBen]

Why because I only collect Cardinals


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[anusinha]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

That doesn't make him immune to the hype cycle that every single player in history experiences. His market may be global, but even those foreign collectors will wane a bit in their passion. Foreign collectors aren't somehow built different than we are. Market size doesn't insulate a market from natural market forces. There WILL be a late/post career dip, followed by a small bump for the HOF, then a slow rise over time like all vintage greats. It's as sure as death and taxes. Playing days hype is ALWAYS peak hype for a player's card market. If you buy during that time period, it takes decades for them to climb back to those levels.

Ohtani is like...... THE superstar in Japan. He's like their Taylor Swift, he could probably be the Emperor if he wanted to.

[seanrs1]

Legendary


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