First Buzz: 2025-26 Topps NBA basketball cards

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by premium1981

$160 was still profit from dealer costs and then the 2nd wave was released as well causing a supply dump. I'll say this, if it gets to $120 a box I will be opening a lot of it. You could open 10 cases at that price point and get lucky with 1 card to pay for them all, or at least half of them. I'd take that chance at $120 a box. So please point me that direction when it arrives and I will show you that I am a man of my word 100% of the time. I am serious when I say I would open a whole lot of it.

I opened many cases of the last Topps Basketball release as well and loved every second of it. The only minor problem back then was that I was stacking my Tyler Hansbrough cards. No other player mattered to me. Oops.

I gave away quite a bit of Curry as well. They were still the good old days!

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by premium1981

He should have waited for the price crash.

For the record, I got in at $230 like everyone else.

Eastbay is into altering posts these days, he must be going through some bad times.

[jfan2024]

A "crash" would probably still be $150 for hobby is my guess. Again taking series 1 and 2 baseball as the comparison, I don't think I ever got hobby cases (12 boxes) at less than $900 cash in-person aka $75/box. Past few years, that's been closer to $1200/case bottom dollar. This being first flagship basketball combined with I assume none of the series 1, 2, update nonsense in baseball aka the sole NBA flagship paper release, it will stay much more expensive than anything baseball equivalent flagship.

I think the best you can realistically hope for is around that $150/hobby price point, and then maybe that gets combined with something like a promo pack wrapper redemption at the National where you can get value back from the pack etc. I don't know if we'll even get $150 as a black friday price, as I don't know if there are really mountains of cases sitting around to dump at that kind of volume. I'd guess maybe there's some retail deals on this product for Black Friday, but hobby/jumbo will stay at a price that's going to leave the majority of rips to be "not worth it financially". Not any different than any other product. If you refuse to rip cases, then yeah you're going to be annoyed most of the time, since you gave up the guaranteed 1-2 "winner" boxes in that case for a smaller chance at having your loose boxes being the winners. Alternatively, just buy singles. I've been cleaning up on Egor Demin at what I think are great prices, only buying blacks, golds, and on-card autos

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

A "crash" would probably still be $150 for hobby is my guess. Again taking series 1 and 2 baseball as the comparison, I don't think I ever got hobby cases (12 boxes) at less than $900 cash in-person aka $75/box. Past few years, that's been closer to $1200/case bottom dollar. This being first flagship basketball combined with I assume none of the series 1, 2, update nonsense in baseball aka the sole NBA flagship paper release, it will stay much more expensive than anything baseball equivalent flagship.

I think the best you can realistically hope for is around that $150/hobby price point, and then maybe that gets combined with something like a promo pack wrapper redemption at the National where you can get value back from the pack etc. I don't know if we'll even get $150 as a black friday price, as I don't know if there are really mountains of cases sitting around to dump at that kind of volume. I'd guess maybe there's some retail deals on this product for Black Friday, but hobby/jumbo will stay at a price that's going to leave the majority of rips to be "not worth it financially". Not any different than any other product. If you refuse to rip cases, then yeah you're going to be annoyed most of the time, since you gave up the guaranteed 1-2 "winner" boxes in that case for a smaller chance at having your loose boxes being the winners. Alternatively, just buy singles. I've been cleaning up on Egor Demin at what I think are great prices, only buying blacks, golds, and on-card autos

I've said it before, and although some like to use hyperbole thinking its making some sort of point, the fact remains about these boxes. The top end is too high for the boxes to crash. We don't live in a world where you can buy $120 boxes with real bangers in them. There are too many people, myself included, that would take that value wager all day long.

The one, and only one, thing that craters these prices is the economy doing a nose dive. A true nosedive. Because even in a "regular recession" the people buying $10k-$50k sports cards are not hit like regular people are. So the lottery remains in tact. It will take world changing devastation on the economic cycle for that to happen.

Honestly, there is only one thing that determines how fast or slow this product moves in either direction right now. That is when and what does Topps release next for basketball. I may be wrong, but I am of the opinion that they want this one to simmer for a little bit before anything else comes out.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by premium1981

He should have waited for the price crash.

If only he were as smart as he believes himself to be!

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by johnscards

This is cool! Refreshing to see this coming back, Panini would never. Love the wood designs

Would never? Panini had cards numbered to 25 in Retail for the last decade I think. They also had Wood cards in retail.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

If only he were as smart as he believes himself to be!

I aspire to be as smart as this guy -

“Shoot, you could've replaced MJ with someone like Klay Thompson and got the same exact outcome.” - eastbayak

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I've said it before, and although some like to use hyperbole thinking its making some sort of point, the fact remains about these boxes. The top end is too high for the boxes to crash. We don't live in a world where you can buy $120 boxes with real bangers in them. There are too many people, myself included, that would take that value wager all day long.

The one, and only one, thing that craters these prices is the economy doing a nose dive. A true nosedive. Because even in a "regular recession" the people buying $10k-$50k sports cards are not hit like regular people are. So the lottery remains in tact. It will take world changing devastation on the economic cycle for that to happen.

Honestly, there is only one thing that determines how fast or slow this product moves in either direction right now. That is when and what does Topps release next for basketball. I may be wrong, but I am of the opinion that they want this one to simmer for a little bit before anything else comes out.

But how about a product like 2025 topps chrome baseball? There are monster dual logomen auto hits you can pull in the product.

They started at over $300 for hobby boxes and are now down to less than $200, which is a loss under the $250 dealers paid for the second wave.

It happens to many mass produced products, I wouldn’t be so confident about a floor for such a mass produced product.

If the public was able to buy basketball hobby boxes direct from topps at $110, don’t be surprised if down the line they get close to approaching that price. I would love to see it happen as well.

[h00perstar34]

Got 2 hangers in from target online. Pulled an All Kings Kasparas RC and Derek Queen auto back to back!

[22emmittfan]

Is anyone else finding wemby a tough find? Very hard hitting any of his cards for me

[RainCityShecks]

delete

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

But how about a product like 2025 topps chrome baseball? There are monster dual logomen auto hits you can pull in the product.

They started at over $300 for hobby boxes and are now down to less than $200, which is a loss under the $250 dealers paid for the second wave.

It happens to many mass produced products, I wouldn’t be so confident about a floor for such a mass produced product.

If the public was able to buy basketball hobby boxes direct from topps at $110, don’t be surprised if down the line they get close to approaching that price. I would love to see it happen as well.

The dual logomen cards have mostly been hit if I recall correctly. Regardless, outside of those specific cards, there are no cards that come anywhere close to comparing to the high end basketball market.

Do a honest evaluation of 2025 Topps Chrome Baseball Hobby Boxes. A case should be around $2,100 give or take a few bucks. How many cards can realistically cover the cost of a case? Just a quick glance at ebay sold has 2 that have sold for over $2k. Although its an older release now, but it gives a starting point.

Now, do Topps Basketball Hobby. A case will run you $2,300ish right now. How many cards can you realistically pull to cover that case? I didn't count them one by one because it really doesn't matter, but putting in this criteria, there are 109 sold items at $2,300 or higher so far. And this is only 2 weeks of sales.

2 vs 109

This is not even talking about how high some of these sales are that would cover multiple cases. The two products and two markets are not the same. At all. This will not fall to $120 a box, no matter how much you want to see it fail, and no matter how bad I want to buy them at that price. It ain't happening.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The dual logomen cards have mostly been hit if I recall correctly. Regardless, outside of those specific cards, there are no cards that come anywhere close to comparing to the high end basketball market.

Do a honest evaluation of 2025 Topps Chrome Baseball Hobby Boxes. A case should be around $2,100 give or take a few bucks. How many cards can realistically cover the cost of a case? Just a quick glance at ebay sold has 2 that have sold for over $2k. Although its an older release now, but it gives a starting point.

Now, do Topps Basketball Hobby. A case will run you $2,300ish right now. How many cards can you realistically pull to cover that case? I didn't count them one by one because it really doesn't matter, but putting in this criteria, there are 109 sold items at $2,300 or higher so far. And this is only 2 weeks of sales.

2 vs 109

This is not even talking about how high some of these sales are that would cover multiple cases. The two products and two markets are not the same. At all. This will not fall to $120 a box, no matter how much you want to see it fail, and no matter how bad I want to buy them at that price. It ain't happening.

I get that the sports, nature of release and demographics for the products are different, but one thing in common is the lotto nature of the hits and fanatics marketing and sales techniques.

I brought up 2025 chrome baseball to show how prices can be manipulated to start high and end up biting you in the rear. Multiple dealers I have talked to have complained that they are stuck with topps chrome at a price that will lose them money, and this CAN happen to topps basketball as well.

Buy prices for 2025 topps chrome on dealer net were as high as $296 for a hobby box on release day. Now hobby boxes can be had for $160. Topps website direct pricing for the public was at $199. So you see, box prices CAN fall well below initial sales prices.

Don’t be so arrogant in believing this will NEVER EVER happen to Topps basketball, because it can. I’m surprised you’ve been brainwashed by fanatics price gouging - you’ve been in this hobby far too long to fall victim to their tactics.

We get the enthusiasm for the first new topps basketball product in 16 years, we understand the exuberant prices those singles are fetching now, but for a product that barely anyone who opens a hobby box wants to do so again and not knowing the Topps basketball new release schedule, it is very bold to claim prices will never get anywhere near $120. I hope you are wrong.

[phil]

Megas up on Target $44.99 ($42.74 redcard), limit 2 per order but no order limit at the moment apparently

[h00perstar34]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I get that the sports, nature of release and demographics for the products are different, but one thing in common is the lotto nature of the hits and fanatics marketing and sales techniques.

I brought up 2025 chrome baseball to show how prices can be manipulated to start high and end up biting you in the rear. Multiple dealers I have talked to have complained that they are stuck with topps chrome at a price that will lose them money, and this CAN happen to topps basketball as well.

Buy prices for 2025 topps chrome on dealer net were as high as $296 for a hobby box on release day. Now hobby boxes can be had for $160. Topps website direct pricing for the public was at $199. So you see, box prices CAN fall well below initial sales prices.

Don’t be so arrogant in believing this will NEVER EVER happen to Topps basketball, because it can. I’m surprised you’ve been brainwashed by fanatics price gouging - you’ve been in this hobby far too long to fall victim to their tactics.

We get the enthusiasm for the first new topps basketball product in 16 years, we understand the exuberant prices those singles are fetching now, but for a product that barely anyone who opens a hobby box wants to do so again and not knowing the Topps basketball new release schedule, it is very bold to claim prices will never get anywhere near $120. I hope you are wrong.

You need to open volume. Can’t open one blaster or one hobby box and claim it’s a trash product because the one single sku you ripped was a dud.

Granted i’ve done well but so far I’ve ripped 2 hobby’s, 1 jumbo, 20 blasters and 30 hangers and have hit a couple 4 figure cards, 5/6 $100-$400 cards and a bunch in the $20-60 range. It’s a fun rip regardless to me.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by h00perstar34

You need to open volume. Can’t open one blaster or one hobby box and claim it’s a trash product because the one single sku you ripped was a dud.

Granted i’ve done well but so far I’ve ripped 2 hobby’s, 1 jumbo, 20 blasters and 30 hangers and have hit a couple 4 figure cards, 5/6 $100-$400 cards and a bunch in the $20-60 range. It’s a fun rip regardless to me.

LOL, you did better than 99% of the people out there, including the guy at my local shop that cracked his order of ten cases. That dude was PISSED that he didn’t even hit a Flagg auto.

Don’t take your luck for granted. Opening volume will put people even more deep in the hole, especially at current prices.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

What are thoughts on trying to put together a Gold /2025 complete set?

I'm assuming it would be expensive, but would also hold value...

I decided to start this venture.

If anyone has some cheap, non-star /2025s they want to move in bulk, let me know.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I get that the sports, nature of release and demographics for the products are different, but one thing in common is the lotto nature of the hits and fanatics marketing and sales techniques.

I brought up 2025 chrome baseball to show how prices can be manipulated to start high and end up biting you in the rear. Multiple dealers I have talked to have complained that they are stuck with topps chrome at a price that will lose them money, and this CAN happen to topps basketball as well.

Buy prices for 2025 topps chrome on dealer net were as high as $296 for a hobby box on release day. Now hobby boxes can be had for $160. Topps website direct pricing for the public was at $199. So you see, box prices CAN fall well below initial sales prices.

Don’t be so arrogant in believing this will NEVER EVER happen to Topps basketball, because it can. I’m surprised you’ve been brainwashed by fanatics price gouging - you’ve been in this hobby far too long to fall victim to their tactics.

We get the enthusiasm for the first new topps basketball product in 16 years, we understand the exuberant prices those singles are fetching now, but for a product that barely anyone who opens a hobby box wants to do so again and not knowing the Topps basketball new release schedule, it is very bold to claim prices will never get anywhere near $120. I hope you are wrong.

The bolded is why everyone here hates you other than a couple people who are just like you. I was attempting to have a civil conversation, although I guess I should have known better. In response you say I'm brainwashed after giving specific reasons why this product won't go to $120. Always with the name calling.

I understand prices of items can fall. I literally said that just on the last page in response to someone talking about wax prices. But unlike you, I actually use the market and the factual data it provides to justify my opinions on products. I don't blanket everything as good or bad. I'm not continuing any further. You have proved over and over that it always resorts to name calling and belittling everyone else. I'll call myself a fool for thinking you would do anything other than what you always do.

[jbettis32]

Actually, for me, by instinct, no matter how thousands of reasons to be compared or calculated, a flagship BKB products with strong RC class along with the long waiting official LBJ and first licensed Wemby auto, the floor price of a hobby box should be way over $150 in a long way.... every product is over priced and inflated nowadays, no way a significant Topps flagship product will fall too hard and under SRP.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by 22emmittfan

Is anyone else finding wemby a tough find? Very hard hitting any of his cards for me

I have zero. Small sample size but, yes, it seemed weird to not get one.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The bolded is why everyone here hates you other than a couple people who are just like you. I was attempting to have a civil conversation, although I guess I should have known better. In response you say I'm brainwashed after giving specific reasons why this product won't go to $120. Always with the name calling.

I understand prices of items can fall. I literally said that just on the last page in response to someone talking about wax prices. But unlike you, I actually use the market and the factual data it provides to justify my opinions on products. I don't blanket everything as good or bad. I'm not continuing any further. You have proved over and over that it always resorts to name calling and belittling everyone else. I'll call myself a fool for thinking you would do anything other than what you always do.

I’ve given you a specific example of a product that has been price manipulated and yet you never fail to retreat to the same old “everyone hates you” when your investments, and your ego, are challenged.

You need to grow thicker skin and not blanket everyone as good or bad.

Everyone here now knows both of our opinions about the product. Make your purchasing decisions wisely.

[beens75]

Originally Posted by sammyjankis

Just opened my 3 Fanatics value boxes. Best cards (for now, I’m sure prices will tank as more are listed):

Cooper Flagg RC logo foil
VJ Edgecombe RC logo foil
Tre Johnson III gold RC /2025
Tyrese Halliburton 45th anniversary gold /50 (terrible shape, bad corners)

I opened my 12 Fanatics boxes last night. No Autos, no redemptions. No numbered cards other than 4 golds/2025.

1 Team Color..Devin Carter...bleh
4 Gold's/2025. Best was Ace Bailey.
2 Pink Holofoils, best was AI
2 decent regular Holofoils. Edgecome and Harper.
2 Flagg Topps Foils, most of the other rookies minus Edgecome
A bunch of holofoil inserts probably 10.

Overall it was worse than I expected based on the odds. Beat the odds on the gold and the team color, but was kind of shocked I didn't hit any other numbered cards or relics or 1 auto.

[beens75]

I forgot to post this. I bought a 4 blasters from Dick's when I was out and about and 1 was insane.

1/1 Lauri Markkenen Black Tipoff parallel 1/26,000 packs and Vince Carter Hardwood Stars 1/4500 packs out of the same blaster.

[RKH916]

People are still ripping this?

[bankdawg]

Originally Posted by RKH916

People are still ripping this?