WAR: Bonds v. A-Rod v. Pujols v. Trout v. Ohtani

[RiceBondsMT2Yng]

Here is a side-by-side comparison of what could be considered the best player of each decade since the 1980s. For each player, I’ve listed their Wins Above Replacement (bWAR) and shown how they ranked against other position players in their own league (NL or AL) for each season.

( ) = finished 1st in their league’s position-player WAR

N/R = not ranked in the league’s top 10 that season

[ ] = for Ohtani, this shows Position-Player WAR + Pitcher WAR

Note on Ohtani:
He’s a unique case, so I’ve included his pitching WAR as if it were part of his total WAR as a “position” that he effectively plays (pitcher + DH). Baseball has never seen a modern player who contributes elite WAR on both sides of the ball, so this combined number gives the best apples-to-apples comparison I could think of.

Finally, I’ve highlighted each player’s age-30 season to make their career arc easier to compare.



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@rwperu34 - here you go:

[Handsome Wes]

For what it's worth, Ohtani is ~probably~ better than the numbers indicate. WAR famously knocks a player for being a DH (and a first baseman).

[fabiani12333]

I don't know what the point of the thread is, but thanks for the side-by-side comparison.

One issue I have with your post -- as a fellow Bonds collector, you know that his 1995 season was cut short due to the first 18 games of the season being canceled as a result of the players strike. He probably would have finished well above Ohtani otherwise -- he was very durable in those years, playing nearly every game.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

For what it's worth, Ohtani is ~probably~ better than the numbers indicate. WAR famously knocks a player for being a DH (and a first baseman).

Are you saying the penalty for being a DH is unfair? A team needs position players to win games -- they don't need a full-time DH. The only unfairness of the DH positional adjustment that I can think of in regards to Ohtani is when he pitches -- he shouldn't get penalized for DHing on those days. Other than that, being a full-time DH is a detriment to his team and is deserving of a downgrade in valuation. What that penalty should be is exactly is impossible to know, but it should exist.

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

For what it's worth, Ohtani is ~probably~ better than the numbers indicate. WAR famously knocks a player for being a DH (and a first baseman).

Should DHs not be knocked? They literally get to take practice swings in a cage and watch tape on pitchers on iPads instead of playing the field. They’re probably not knocked enough.

[RiceBondsMT2Yng]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I don't know what the point of the thread is, but thanks for the side-by-side comparison.

One issue I have with your post -- as a fellow Bonds collector, you know that his 1995 season was cut short due to the first 18 games of the season being canceled as a result of the players strike. He probably would have finished well above Ohtani otherwise -- he was very durable in those years, playing nearly every game.

You're welcome, man. I haven't been as plugged into sports or the hobby lately, but Ohtani is such a spectacular talent that I was curious how his numbers would look in this chart, and I figured I’d share the results. I highlighted the age-30 season simply to give an additional visual marker showing how each player’s career rose, peaked, or declined as they moved into and out of that age. I don't have a strong opinion about Ohtani's place in baseball history yet.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

Should DHs not be knocked? They literally get to take practice swings in a cage and watch tape on pitchers on iPads instead of playing the field. They’re probably not knocked enough.

To be fair, several players have said it's difficult adjusting to DHing -- Rafael Devers comes to mind as a player who recently talked about how difficulty it is mentally to DH.

The main benefit to DHing is clearly physical -- no wear and tear over a long season from playing the field. Ohtani stealing 50 bags in 2024 might not have happened if he had played the field full time.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I don't know what the point of the thread is, but thanks for the side-by-side comparison.

One issue I have with your post -- as a fellow Bonds collector, you know that his 1995 season was cut short due to the first 18 games of the season being canceled as a result of the players strike. He probably would have finished well above Ohtani otherwise -- he was very durable in those years, playing nearly every game.

Is Bonds your GOAT? Is that why you collect him? How can he be your GOAT if he cheated in his SF years and never won a WS ring?

[here2havefun]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Is Bonds your GOAT? Is that why you collect him? How can he be your GOAT if he cheated in his SF years and never won a WS ring?

Lots of people collect players that have no argument for GOAT, and are otherwise flawed. For example I collect Cedric Mullins, because I like him.

[Imnottheonly]

I don’t understand what the point of this post is. Is it just to point out that while Ohtani’s skill set is unique his value (defined by WAR) isn’t? I’m not sure what the take away is.

Yesterday it was “can you prove Ohtani’s the GOAT” today it’s this. We are only a few weeks into the off-season it’s going to be a long few months.

Ohtani is obviously great, lots of players in the history of baseball are obviously great. Some are under appreciated by the hobby (see Stan Musial in Vintage as prime example), and some are over valued when comparing strictly their on-field statistics (if I name anyone here it’s probably going to send the discussion in some pointless direction, but I’m sure you can think of some players). Do we need multiple threads about Ohtani’s WAR?


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[livfreely]

The only two worthy on this list are Pujols and Ohtani…




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[Skipscards]

From a value standpoint, I’d say Ohtani is like Wes Ferrell, Red Ruffing, Don Newcombe, or Steve Carlton. Obviously those guys had more value as pitchers (think Ohtani 2022) but each put together a couple of amazing seasons with the bat. Ohtani is like that, only every season. That being said, he still has a long way to go to be the definitive 2020s guy.

Should be a fun second half of the decade.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Is Bonds your GOAT? Is that why you collect him? How can he be your GOAT if he cheated in his SF years and never won a WS ring?

No, Willie Mays is my choice for GOAT. Even Bonds would pick the Say Hey Kid for GOAT -- Bonds adored him.

I grew up watching Bonds in the 90s, before any of the steroid crap. I don't blame him for juicing -- it was rampant in the game and he was getting overshadowed by guys in the 90s who were doing it.

[PuddleMonkey]

I hate Bonds and the Giants and I am totally fine if he's considered the GOAT by most.

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

No, Willie Mays is my choice for GOAT. Even Bonds would pick the Say Hey Kid for GOAT -- Bonds adored him.

I grew up watching Bonds in the 90s, before any of the steroid crap. I don't blame him for juicing -- it was rampant in the game and he was getting overshadowed by guys in the 90s who were doing it.

Bonds took PEDs in the 90s. Change my mind.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

Bonds took PEDs in the 90s. Change my mind.

Didn't you know that Bonds was the only guy in the 90s not on steroids?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

Bonds took PEDs in the 90s. Change my mind.

Everyone did. Change my mind.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Are you saying the penalty for being a DH is unfair? A team needs position players to win games -- they don't need a full-time DH. The only unfairness of the DH positional adjustment that I can think of in regards to Ohtani is when he pitches -- he shouldn't get penalized for DHing on those days. Other than that, being a full-time DH is a detriment to his team and is deserving of a downgrade in valuation. What that penalty should be is exactly is impossible to know, but it should exist.

He doesn't. He gets all the value of the run prevention he provides by pitching.

[rwperu34]

I like the look. Would be nice to see Griffey Jr. and Judge in there with their age 30 highlighted as well.

[BennyA]

Outfield and centerfield so weak in the Trout early years it makes his good but not all time great seasons end up with all time great WAR numbers, just look at some of the names and stat lines in the OF from that time, not a lot of HOF competition.

[tribefan26]

Originally Posted by Handsome Wes

For what it's worth, Ohtani is ~probably~ better than the numbers indicate. WAR famously knocks a player for being a DH (and a first baseman).

Ohtani is a DH for a different reason than many others that play DH. Many DH simply can't play defense due to health or mobility issues. Ohtani plays DH so that he can pitch every 5th day (when not recovering from surgery). Everything I've ever seen indicates he could be an elite OF if he didn't pitch, and his oWAR would be higher if he played a position and didn't pitch.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by tribefan26

Everything I've ever seen indicates he could be an elite OF if he didn't pitch, and his oWAR would be higher if he played a position and didn't pitch.

Well, I don't know if I'd go as far as say he would be an elite OF, but definitely a capable OF with a cannon arm.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

Bonds took PEDs in the 90s. Change my mind.

I've seen no reporting on it -- and reporters, the feds and George Mitchell tried hard to find any evidence of it. Pre late 90s is widely considered his clean years.

If he did use something, all the so-called clean players from that era should be suspected as well. And probably a lot of the players from the 80s as well, including Hall of Famers. It's something I don't care to dwell on because I have no way of knowing.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by BennyA

Outfield and centerfield so weak in the Trout early years it makes his good but not all time great seasons end up with all time great WAR numbers, just look at some of the names and stat lines in the OF from that time, not a lot of HOF competition.

That's not how WAR works, though maybe it should -- his value is based on all players in a given year, not just center fielders, with a park adjustment and modest positional adjustment for playing center field.

[duwal]

Originally Posted by Noles939913

Bonds took PEDs in the 90s. Change my mind.

sounds like you are dead set on no one changing your mind