Topps “Dutch” Auction

[FatboyWu]

Originally Posted by njsportscardguy

You can bet your as; any "tool" or "feature", which Topps/Fanatics decides to implement on their website(s), will NEVER be done so to be of direct-benefit to us,...the consumer. NEVER in a million years! Rather, it's commensurate with their clear & obvious intents of [ONLY!] BEING GREEDY! (aka. they got us by the you-know-whats; they know it, you [should] know it!)

I'm as red, white, & blue... capitalistic-minded, as any other patriotic American. However, the course for which these billionaires & hundreds-of-millions-aires are steering our hobby ship is just undeniably,....




With virtually every, mid-tier to premium release, they're making it more & more blatantly obvious. They DON'T WANT...."lil' fellas"..."playing" any more! No need for the guy whose been in the hobby....40+ years, whose budget is (example) a few hundred to a couple thousand...a month, and just wants a random box/case or two...here & there! They want folks who have NO QUALMS about droppin' THOUSANDS, A DAY! And what's the easiest way for them to realize this..."business model"...?!? Make it virtually IMPOSSIBLE for the overwhelming-majority of Average Joes,...to procure any of their mid-tier/premium products (be it through a BOT-ruled, crash-filled, traditional pre-sale drop,...a bogus-EQL,...or a manipulable Dutch auction) thereby allocating the bulk of said products,...to BREAKERS WHO BREAK ON THEIR PLATFORM! It's a "win-win-win" (and win, some more!) for Topps/Fanatics, and it's undoubtedly, exactly what their intentions are for our hobby! "Buy into our breaks,...with US/OUR PEOPLE, and if you don't want to; FINE! Go, kick-rocks,...'cuz someone else,...will (buy into our breaks!)!"

In layman's terms - we're being SQUEEZED-OUT of the hobby. Directly or indirectly, is a moot point. If you don't see the writing on the wall, well; there's nothing I, nor anyone, could say or do to make you realize as such. Ya' know the 'ole saying. You can't make a blind man, see. But, believe me! Unless it's (example) Flagship, Bowman, Heritage, paper products, Topps/Fanatics....doesn't want you getting your grimy hands on ANY of..."the good stuff"! But, of course; they..."have to" allow for a lil' pee-dribbles worth of it, to "hit-the-streets".

Anywho...

I totally get your anger njsg, it's a different game now. If you have a couple hundred or thousand a month though....retail to scratch the itch, singles for a sweet collection and don't pay the PSA 10 tax.

[brewtown107]

Should really call them Greek auctions at this point with how they're giving it to collectors.

[Bob Ross]

[BlowoutBuzz]

My bet here is Topps Chrome NBA First Day Issue boxes.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Obviously we don't know for sure right how much product will be made available during the auctions and if any will be backdoored. If a bunch was going to be backdoored why was this all presented to Topps direct account members? Is it not a safe assumption to say it's because Topps is showing these guys this to show how they have to buy these products in the future too? There will be no direct account presale buys to products that are auctioned. Except for the small percent held back for promotional purposes, errors, or shipment issues like Panini would hold back in 2019-2021. Why would Topps switch to the auction format if they are not going to be at least somewhat if not completely on the up and up? If it is shenanigans it's just going to drive away more people and hurt the long term hobby. Which Fanatics seems to now care about. They hold the long term licenses.

They will auction off a certain percentage of product direct to consumers, then make direct accounts pay based off that pricing.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

They will auction off a certain percentage of product direct to consumers, then make direct accounts pay based off that pricing.

Could they do that? Yes. Will they? I don't know what the point would be of changing your entire selling format and informing all the direct buyers about it if this is what they are going to do.

For one why would any of the larger direct buyers buy any boxes or cases during the auction? If they know their already guaranteed allotment, they will pay the lowest or under the lowest price they sell for why would any of them take a risk and pay more during the auction? So, by them not buying right there you are already guaranteeing every product goes for a lower price.

If it is indeed the model of everyone pays the lowest price of sell out why would you hold back product to then sell what's held back for 75% of that final cost instead of the entire 100% during the auction?

The way Panini went about selling hobby the last 6 years and FOTL since late 2021 was clearly stupidity and/or corruption. Topps seems like they may be trying to do something that is not only in their best interest but the interest of the average buyer and the long term of the hobby.

Maybe Im being too optimistic that they will auction at least 90%. Either way, as I've said a million times, I'll take any type of auction format over how Topps had been selling their in demand products and hope it's a fair one.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Could they do that? Yes. Will they? I don't know what the point would be of changing your entire selling format and informing all the direct buyers about it if this is what they are going to do.

For one why would any of the larger direct buyers buy any boxes or cases during the auction? If they know their already guaranteed allotment, they will pay the lowest or under the lowest price they sell for why would any of them take a risk and pay more during the auction? So, by them not buying right there you are already guaranteeing every product goes for a lower price.

If it is indeed the model of everyone pays the lowest price of sell out why would you hold back product to then sell what's held back for 75% of that final cost instead of the entire 100% during the auction?

The way Panini went about selling hobby the last 6 years and FOTL since late 2021 was clearly stupidity and/or corruption. Topps seems like they may be trying to do something that is not only in their best interest but the interest of the average buyer and the long term of the hobby.

Maybe Im being too optimistic that they will auction at least 90%. Either way, as I've said a million times, I'll take any type of auction format over how Topps had been selling their in demand products and hope it's a fair one.

The auction format is for the general public to have a chance to purchase in-demand product directly from Topps. This will allow Topps to set the pricing for direct accounts -- the direct accounts exist for dealers to have guaranteed access to product, otherwise there is no point to its existence. They will have to pay close to the auction sale price (maybe the average or median price -- I don't know).

Topps doesn't want to pay sales agents to sell product -- they want to sell it more efficiently directly to consumers and dealers. That's where the auction format comes in. They won't sell it all via auction because they want to retain control over distribution -- they want product being sold via group breaks on Fanatics Live.

The auction format is also a way to diversify how Topps sells their products -- they don't want to rely on one model. They are experimenting and leaving their options open. They also want direct accounts to know product can be sold without them -- it's a power move.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The auction format is for the general public to have a chance to purchase in-demand product directly from Topps. This will allow Topps to set the pricing for direct accounts -- the direct accounts exist for dealers to have guaranteed access to product, otherwise there is no point to its existence. They will have to pay close to the auction sale price (maybe the average or median price -- I don't know).

Topps doesn't want to pay sales agents to sell product -- they want to sell it more efficiently directly to consumers and dealers. That's where the auction format comes in. They won't sell it all via auction because they want to retain control over distribution -- they want product being sold via group breaks on Fanatics Live.

The auction format is also a way to diversify how Topps sells their products -- they don't want to rely on one model. They are experimenting and leaving their options open. They also want direct accounts to know product can be sold without them -- it's a power move.

The general public has always had a chance to purchase in demand product from Topps for years. There has been nothing that has been distributor/direct buyer exclusive.

Direct accounts would still have access to buy every other product not being auctioned at a money tree price. Which is going to be the vast majority of products. If they don't like it they can leave. There are thousands of people that would gladly take their spot.

We don't know for sure the auction format but a long time member on here said his shop owner heard this info direct from Topps and its the format where every buyer will pay the sell out price. So if you're correct they aren't going to pay the average price. They are going to at worst pay the lowest price and most likely less. Again that lowers the auction sell out price because those guys aren't going to want it to sell out at a higher price and jack up their cost of their allotment. they wouldn't even participant in auctions unless their allotment was basically non existent.

Topps/Fanatics has been paying sales agents for years. If they wanted to retain complete control over distribution they had it. The model was hold back most product and sell at a higher price under the table usually after a product was way higher in price. Really the only products it didn't work on were the ones that weren't in high demand. I can't think of a single high demand one that strategy hasn't worked on.

We all know at this point one way or another breakers are going to get this product and break on Fanatics live regardless of the distribution model.

Lol a power move?!? If every single direct buyer dropped out tomorrow you would have thousands BEGGING to take their spots. Panini didn't change their model of hobby distribution for the better part of a decade even though they would have had millions lining up to pay full MSRP versus the 75%ish Panini was charging for the majority of hobby products.

The only thing we will agree on is they are experimenting. I think the way this will go they will change it very quickly or get rid of it completely. That's if it is the format where everyone only pays the lowest price. The only time they ever did this that product sold out at the floor price. They should go the Panini auction route. That or a blind bid type system where everyone would have 24 hours to put in their bids and quantities.

[finfangfan]

Here’s how the Topps website defines Dutch Auction which is different than the Luber/Zerocool method described upthread.

From: https://www.topps.com/pages/dutch-auction-terms

Effective as of May 18, 2023

“Dutch Auction. In a “Dutch” auction, products will be made available at a “starting price” when the auction begins which is the highest possible price for a bid. The price will then reduce by specified dollar amounts in increments of time (e.g., $25 every 5 minutes) until the product is sold out or until the auction price reaches the specified “floor” price which is the lowest possible price possible bid price. Bidding price is determined at the moment an item is added to the cart, not when checkout is complete. Bid checkouts completed after the product has sold out or after auction has ended may be rejected or later cancelled. We may limit the number of boxes or cases per transaction and/or number of transactions per customer.”

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Here’s how the Topps website defines Dutch Auction which is different than the Luber/Zerocool method described upthread.

From: https://www.topps.com/pages/dutch-auction-terms

Effective as of May 18, 2023

“Dutch Auction. In a “Dutch” auction, products will be made available at a “starting price” when the auction begins which is the highest possible price for a bid. The price will then reduce by specified dollar amounts in increments of time (e.g., $25 every 5 minutes) until the product is sold out or until the auction price reaches the specified “floor” price which is the lowest possible price possible bid price. Bidding price is determined at the moment an item is added to the cart, not when checkout is complete. Bid checkouts completed after the product has sold out or after auction has ended may be rejected or later cancelled. We may limit the number of boxes or cases per transaction and/or number of transactions per customer.”

This is bonkers, oh the shenanigans that will ensue on that doo-doo website while everyone is struggling to even checkout

"I added X to my cart at 11:05 but the price didn't change/lower, when I checked out I was charged the higher price but topps totally has my back right?!"

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Direct accounts would still have access to buy every other product not being auctioned at a money tree price. Which is going to be the vast majority of products. If they don't like it they can leave. There are thousands of people that would gladly take their spot.

Topps needs the direct-account dealers to buy large amounts of mass-produced and less popular products. In return, the dealers gain access to premium and in-demand products. It's a mutually beneficial trade-off.

Sure, Topps could easily replace any direct account, but they still need the dealers to buy product. Having the auction format ensures Topps has alternative methods of selling product, but it's best paired with the dealer network -- they are complementary.

[fabiani12333]

The auction format is potentially superior to the EQL format for Topps because the auction format allows for the possibility of buyers paying higher prices to get first crack at new product -- EQL sold product at a preset price.

The higher auction prices can then be used to set direct pricing -- Topps doesn't have to hold back product to wait for prices to reset on the secondary market.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Topps needs the direct-account dealers to buy large amounts of mass-produced and less popular products. In return, the dealers gain access to premium and in-demand products. It's a mutually beneficial trade-off.

Sure, Topps could easily replace any direct account, but they still need the dealers to buy product. Having the auction format ensures Topps has alternative methods of selling product, but it's best paired with the dealer network -- they are complementary.

You do realize how the industry worked prior to 6 or so years ago, right? Virtually every product sold around MSRP or below. Why were the direct accounts buying then if the margins weren't good enough? They didn't leave then but will leave now with still way higher margins? Obviously not.

You now have Topps Basketball hobby selling for double what they pay. It's going to be as printed as basically any NBA product. I still remember everyone being pissed that presale for 18-19 Prizm Basketball hobby was double MSRP. That's because before then basically nothing had been double MSRP. How much do you think Topps Chrome Basketball hobby will sell above MSRP? Im sure more than almost every product prior to 6-7 years ago.

Again, if these dealers think being able to sell the majority of products for MSRP or well over MSRP isn't good enough if you can't get the most likely maybe 15% of products considered premium for a money tree price then say goodbye. At least thousands of people willing to take your spot if the margins aren't good enough.

I'd love to know how much more profit Panini would have made cutting off the money tree price even on just their top 15%-20% of premium hobby products the last 6 years. I did the math a few years ago and for only a few years NT, Prizm, and Flawless hobby the difference versus selling it all for 75%ish of immediate market value was several hundreds of millions of dollars. That was only 3 products, for 2 sports, and only for maybe a 3 year period.

There is a reason no other business on earth operates this way. Why would any company sell their average products that are mid to high end and very easy to immediately resell for a fraction of immediate resale value? Literally not 1 other company has operated like these 2 have at certain points this decade. At least Topps finally found a reason to do over the last year or so with holding back a ton to sell at way higher prices later partially from creating artificial scarcity.

Any other business for very obvious reasons isn't going to allow the secondary seller to make by far the biggest piece of the pie on mid to high end easy to resell products. If you want to talk about cheap hard to sell products like someone brought up years ago with like cables or stupid crap no one is getting rich on ok. Every single person with a big allotment from Panini and Topps this decade has made retirement money to provide no service that countless millions wouldn't have for a fraction of that profit margin.

[Bob Ross]

[fabiani12333]

TC basketball sold out at preset pricing of $700 for Jumbo boxes and $370 for hobby boxes.

How much higher or lower would prices have been with a Dutch-style auction? I understand that it was a limited drop to set initial pricing and create FOMO, but I'm wondering if Topps actually left a lot of money on the table or not.

And I get that breakers and dealers can outspend individuals, and that those on BO want to have a chance at getting some boxes to flip or open -- this isn't what this is about.

[fabiani12333]

Would prices for TC basketball have reached $1,000 for jumbo and $650 for hobby using Dutch auction?

Being the first to market carries a built-in premium, right?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Would prices for TC basketball have reached $1,000 for jumbo and $650 for hobby using Dutch auction?

Being the first to market carries a built-in premium, right?

Yes, it would have.

eBay has so many jumbos that sold for over $1k.

Box flipper bois would have been left out, likely by choice.

[hermanotarjeta]

Honestly, topps should only make one case of any product available to the public “just for show”.

The rest they can trickle out as supply disappears, particularly for endless demand products.

Jack up the second, third and fourth wave prices, then blackmail breakers to take them.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Honestly, topps should only make one case of any product available to the public “just for show”.

The rest they can trickle out as supply disappears, particularly for endless demand products.

Jack up the second, third and fourth wave prices, then blackmail breakers to take them.

Why don't they have multiple phases of public sales? Is it because they want to create the impression of limited availability? To boost the initial sale prices and then sell the rest discretely later on?

Otherwise, they could just sell everything publicly in phases to the highest bidders -- no need for sales agents.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Why don't they have multiple phases of public sales? Is it because they want to create the impression of limited availability? To boost the initial sale prices and then sell the rest discretely later on?

Otherwise, they could just sell everything publicly in phases to the highest bidders -- no need for sales agents.

Honestly, the public sales are there for public relations motives- they have all their product sold with a line ten deep behind the scenes. Multiple, multiple entities would love to corner the market on product, sales distribution is not a big issue for them.

The single collector public is of really little concern to them.

[hermanotarjeta]

The perception that everyone is getting a chance to get product is all they need to keep you enticed.

The reality is even large retail hobby stores are getting skunked because they aren’t vital to the fanatics business plan.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The perception that everyone is getting a chance to get product is all they need to keep you enticed.

The reality is even large retail hobby stores are getting skunked because they aren’t vital to the fanatics business plan.

Interesting -- so you're saying they want to create the perception that their products are available to everyone, while actually selling it in a way that tightly controls and limits the availability of it?

In that scenario, the product is being widely advertised to consumers, creating a demand and the perception of wide availability, but it's actually frustratingly hard to get at a reasonable price due to the method of distribution -- everything is being funneled through breakers.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Interesting -- so you're saying they want to create the perception that their products are available to everyone, while actually selling it in a way that tightly controls and limits the availability of it?

In that scenario, the product is being widely advertised to consumers, creating a demand and the perception of wide availability, but it's actually frustratingly hard to get at a reasonable price due to the method of distribution -- everything is being funneled through breakers.

Precisely.

Do they really have any incentive to leave any meat on the bone for middlemen?

Let them have a single slice of cake. A really thin slice.

Let the conjured demand do the rest.

[PuddleMonkey]

One of the many ways they manipulate the market.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The perception that everyone is getting a chance to get product is all they need to keep you enticed.

The reality is even large retail hobby stores are getting skunked because they aren’t vital to the fanatics business plan.

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Interesting -- so you're saying they want to create the perception that their products are available to everyone, while actually selling it in a way that tightly controls and limits the availability of it?

In that scenario, the product is being widely advertised to consumers, creating a demand and the perception of wide availability, but it's actually frustratingly hard to get at a reasonable price due to the method of distribution -- everything is being funneled through breakers.

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Precisely.

Do they really have any incentive to leave any meat on the bone for middlemen?

Let them have a single slice of cake. A really thin slice.

Let the conjured demand do the rest.

I don’t understand all of the business side of the hobby or pretend to, but let’s assume the 2 of you are right.

Would either of you buy boxes/cases of the new products from Fanatics, anyway - if they were priced more cheaply? I don’t see may positive comments from either of you about new products - whether it’s the price, content, distribution, etc…