Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Even if audited, is someone from the IRS really going to go on Google Maps and calculate the exact distance between your house and the shows? Honest question from someone who just collects for fun.

Probably not, but I keep travel records in Excel on the off chance my 1040 gets the special treatment. I drove 890 miles this time. The IRS rate is 70/cents per mile = $623. If the net from what I picked up is is less than that, then it's a loss on paper for that specific business trip. That's fine. Win some, lose some. It just takes one table to really bank but those are getting fewer and farther between. It doesn't help that I've largely crushed the MN/ND/SD circuit over the last few years. Same boxes, different shows. And with some shows just not at all being fun anymore, I will target fewer of them going forward. Time better spent browsing eBay/COMC or doing other things.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Probably not, but I keep travel records in Excel on the off chance my 1040 gets the special treatment. I drove 890 miles this time. The IRS rate is 70/cents per mile = $623. If the net from what I picked up is is less than that, then it's a loss on paper for that specific business trip. That's fine. Win some, lose some. It just takes one table to really bank but those are getting fewer and farther between. It doesn't help that I've largely crushed the MN/ND/SD circuit over the last few years. Same boxes, different shows. And with some shows just not at all being fun anymore, I will target fewer of them going forward. Time better spent browsing eBay/COMC or doing other things.

Interesting. Thanks for the info.

[mrb842]

show this weekend 1/3 pokemon up from 2-3 tables last year. Very little update, no topps pro debut.

Fanatics is pricing out lots of people who've been the backbone of all of this. Not smart. Less Tom Brady and more affordability.

[PuddleMonkey]

What's with these rumors the last 24 hours about COMC in financial trouble? Did TBP start these rumors?

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

What's with these rumors the last 24 hours about COMC in financial trouble? Did TBP start these rumors?

COMC does WAAAAAAYYYYY too much business to go under, Fanatics would gobble them up fast. The already have the logistics for upper deck e pack, fanatics e-pack would be a dream for them.

[PuddleMonkey]

I think we're going to need backpages to come in here and set the record straight.

[YayNJ]

Originally Posted by anusinha

COMC does WAAAAAAYYYYY too much business to go under, Fanatics would gobble them up fast. The already have the logistics for upper deck e pack, fanatics e-pack would be a dream for them.

Upper Deck / Epack have dumped them.

Have another service now called Authority.

https://www.theauthority.com/

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by anusinha

COMC does WAAAAAAYYYYY too much business to go under, Fanatics would gobble them up fast. The already have the logistics for upper deck e pack, fanatics e-pack would be a dream for them.

The volume they do could be a problem if they’re seeing margin compression from a shift in how people buy from them.

Last 30 days saw 390k sales on eBay. 70% of those sales were under $10. Only 3% were $100+. How many of those dollar bin cards are staying in the COMC system? How many unique orders had to be shipped out?

COMC is a very inefficient version of the low-end dealer at the local card show with terrible overhead.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The volume they do could be a problem if they’re seeing margin compression from a shift in how people buy from them.

Last 30 days saw 390k sales on eBay. 70% of those sales were under $10. Only 3% were $100+. How many of those dollar bin cards are staying in the COMC system? How many unique orders had to be shipped out?

COMC is a very inefficient version of the low-end dealer at the local card show with terrible overhead.

It's rare that Khal and I agree on things, but in this case I think his analysis is right on the money.

What's COMC's business model? How do they make their profits?

Because they appear to be a very labor-intensive business in a region with very high wages.....

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

The volume they do could be a problem if they’re seeing margin compression from a shift in how people buy from them.

Last 30 days saw 390k sales on eBay. 70% of those sales were under $10. Only 3% were $100+. How many of those dollar bin cards are staying in the COMC system? How many unique orders had to be shipped out?

COMC is a very inefficient version of the low-end dealer at the local card show with terrible overhead.

Originally Posted by mfw13

It's rare that Khal and I agree on things, but in this case I think his analysis is right on the money.

What's COMC's business model? How do they make their profits?

Because they appear to be a very labor-intensive business in a region with very high wages.....

A lot of their sales are digital transfers -- from one account to another; no need for a person to move cards around. They have a warehouse system. Shipping is relatively slow, though. I'd imagine, after all these years in business, they have refined their processes. Losing Upper Deck is a big deal, though, as a lot of Comc's newer cards came from ePack transfers.

[pjw77]

I meant to post a couple weeks ago, but I attended a fairly large show at a sports complex here in Jersey and it was easily 50% Pokemon and not a lot of vintage baseball.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

A lot of their sales are digital transfers -- from one account to another; no need for a person to move cards around.

I'm not so sure about that.

Most of their buyers are people like me who need commons for sets they're building....which means that when we buy cards, we want them shipped to us. I'm not sure that many people buy cards and leave them at COMC.

And irrespective of what happens to cards once they're sold, every card that is sent to COMC has to been unpacked, scanned, and a listing created. That's labor-intensive work at a minimum wage of $18.29 a hour in King County.

Without knowing more about their business model, it's hard to know whether or not they might be in financial trouble.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I'm not so sure about that.

Most of their buyers are people like me who need commons for sets they're building....which means that when we buy cards, we want them shipped to us. I'm not sure that many people buy cards and leave them at COMC.

And irrespective of what happens to cards once they're sold, every card that is sent to COMC has to been unpacked, scanned, and a listing created. That's labor-intensive work at a minimum wage of $18.29 a hour in King County.

Without knowing more about their business model, it's hard to know whether or not they might be in financial trouble.

Collectors mostly build up their collections on the platform and wait to have them shipped together -- it's not done individually at the time of purchase. The shipping takes a lot longer now, ever since the 2020 pandemic -- it used to be a fairly quick process.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Collectors mostly build up their collections on the platform and wait to have them shipped together -- it's not done individually at the time of purchase. The shipping takes a lot longer now, ever since the 2020 pandemic -- it used to be a fairly quick process.

Yes, I know.....but most cards still get shipped somewhere at some point in time.

I'm guessing that the number of cards that get bought/sold but NEVER shipped is pretty small.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

Yes, I know.....but most cards still get shipped somewhere at some point in time.

I'm guessing that the number of cards that get bought/sold but NEVER shipped is pretty small.

Disagree. There is a TON of flipping on COMC. If someone has a great game, the cards are bought and relisted at higher prices. Happens every single day.

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

Upper Deck / Epack have dumped them.

Have another service now called Authority.

https://www.theauthority.com/

Just got a notice from UD EPack that they are using BOTH and that both are not interchangeable (you can only send from one or the other).

[DR Murph]

Saw on SCN that there are projected to be around 125 new vendors at the 2026 National.

[hermanotarjeta]

Went to a fairly large sized sports card show today, but the split turned out to be about:

70% pokemon
30% sports cards

At least there was a major wax dealer set up there today. I was thinking about getting a box of 2024 topps chrome hobby baseball to open for $450, but decided to save almost $300 and picked up a Caminero chrome refractor auto instead. I’m so glad I resisted the temptation to rip, it’s so much more gratifying now to just buy some nice cards instead.

At least the pokemon crowd seems much friendlier than the sports cards gangstas. They at least smell better.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by DR Murph

Saw on SCN that there are projected to be around 125 new vendors at the 2026 National.

You need a bunch of new vendors considering how much product is being pumped out.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

At least the pokemon crowd seems much friendlier than the sports cards gangstas.

Nerds are generally friendly.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Went to a fairly large sized sports card show today, but the split turned out to be about:

70% pokemon
30% sports cards

At least there was a major wax dealer set up there today. I was thinking about getting a box of 2024 topps chrome hobby baseball to open for $450, but decided to save almost $300 and picked up a Caminero chrome refractor auto instead. I’m so glad I resisted the temptation to rip, it’s so much more gratifying now to just buy some nice cards instead.

At least the pokemon crowd seems much friendlier than the sports cards gangstas. They at least smell better.

The problem I usually have with the Pokemon crowd is their terrible spatial awareness. The shows we have in Denver usually have rather narrow walkways between tables, and a lot of the Pokemon collector crowd are already larger people. Most of them have a gigantic backpack on, and when they are facing directly any table their body + backpack block the entire aisle, no way to walk around unless they are asked. I'm 6'3" 240 lbs guy so I'm by no means small but I always stand at angles that make my body smaller to allow others to pass by 100% of the time. The younger, larger crowd haven't seemed to learn how to do this.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by corockies

The problem I usually have with the Pokemon crowd is their terrible spatial awareness. The shows we have in Denver usually have rather narrow walkways between tables, and a lot of the Pokemon collector crowd are already larger people. Most of them have a gigantic backpack on, and when they are facing directly any table their body + backpack block the entire aisle, no way to walk around unless they are asked. I'm 6'3" 240 lbs guy so I'm by no means small but I always stand at angles that make my body smaller to allow others to pass by 100% of the time. The younger, larger crowd haven't seemed to learn how to do this.

And you feel the sports card Peli Boys are better about this?

[Big35Hurt]

Went to the Chicago Sports Spectacular yesterday. It was busy but didn't feel crazy packed like the national. Decent selection of cards from vintage to modern. There were a few dealers that had silver bars and coins in one of their cases and a couple of dealers that were not card related at all. They were home remodeling type places. Don't remember ever seeing those at a card show. I can only guess that all the tables didn't sell to dealers, and the show organizer found a way to fill them. And yes, there was some Pokemon but it was only a few tables.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by corockies

The problem I usually have with the Pokemon crowd is their terrible spatial awareness. The shows we have in Denver usually have rather narrow walkways between tables, and a lot of the Pokemon collector crowd are already larger people. Most of them have a gigantic backpack on, and when they are facing directly any table their body + backpack block the entire aisle, no way to walk around unless they are asked. I'm 6'3" 240 lbs guy so I'm by no means small but I always stand at angles that make my body smaller to allow others to pass by 100% of the time. The younger, larger crowd haven't seemed to learn how to do this.

It’s funny, that’s the total opposite of the pokemon crowd I’ve seen on both coasts. They are usually smaller, petite and feminine.

The big uns are usually the card bros.

[hermanotarjeta]

One other big difference I’ve noticed between shows now and shows from 5-10 years ago:

So many collectors would open boxes of products at the shows, including many dealers during down time, and nowadays, I never see anyone opening wax at a show unless of breaker is set up specifically to open there.

Yes, that’s how high wax prices have climbed - to the point where no one wants to open for themselves.

These are sad times.