1977 Topps Luke Skywalker RC ?

[airharrison21]

Just noticed that Graded Luke cards have exploded! Any reason behind it? Wondering if I should sell my PSA 8. Was shocked to see the current going rate.

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by airharrison21

Just noticed that Graded Luke cards have exploded! Any reason behind it? Wondering if I should sell my PSA 8. Was shocked to see the current going rate.

Well, whether or not to sell is always a personal choice, but sure might as well cash in if the money is good.

[cmixer]

Well, once Heritage sold one for $268K,
all others had a "pop" in value.

[PoPCulture]

Originally Posted by airharrison21

Just noticed that Graded Luke cards have exploded! Any reason behind it? Wondering if I should sell my PSA 8. Was shocked to see the current going rate.

I mean, Skywalker had possibly the best Rookie Season of anyone in Nonsports. From nearly being beaten to death by a Tusken Raider and losing the Aunt and Uncle that raised him in the same day to then losing the father figure that he had a close relationship with for about 36 hours to rescuing his sister from termination and finally blowing up a Death Star.

My question is why it took us earthlings so long to figure this out. Mickey Mantle did non of these things and his prices exploded decades ago!

[finfangfan]

He also kissed his sister and very likely had a 2bagger. Very impressive rookie year, for sure.

[dd316]

Originally Posted by airharrison21

Just noticed that Graded Luke cards have exploded! Any reason behind it? Wondering if I should sell my PSA 8. Was shocked to see the current going rate.

The number of 8s in the market will only increase as more people come to your realization and submit. I would say it's a good time to move it.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by cmixer

Well, once Heritage sold one for $268K,
all others had a "pop" in value.

That's an insane price -- PSA says there are nine 10s in existence, and one sold on Robert Edward Auctions in 2023 for $63k.

[DynaEtch]

Looks like nine 10s out of 4,500 graded with PSA…thats an absurdly low ratio. Assuming 1977 topps SW are condition sensitive.

[jdandns]

Yeah, there wasn't a lot of quality control back in 1977. I don't think the vast majority of cards even taken from just opened packs would get a PSA9, let alone a PSA10.

[KPOD]

Originally Posted by dd316

The number of 8s in the market will only increase as more people come to your realization and submit. I would say it's a good time to move it.

Most product has already been opened, and clean 8+ condition copies have long been graded. If you look at the history, the number of 8s and 9s added to the pop report is the last 5 years is an absurdly low percentage of the overall subs. I'd be surprised if even 10x PSA 8s were added to the pop report this year. These cards fresh out of the pack grade 6s, and sometimes 7s on a good day.

[dd316]

Originally Posted by KPOD

Most product has already been opened, and clean 8+ condition copies have long been graded. If you look at the history, the number of 8s and 9s added to the pop report is the last 5 years is an absurdly low percentage of the overall subs. I'd be surprised if even 10x PSA 8s were added to the pop report this year. These cards fresh out of the pack grade 6s, and sometimes 7s on a good day.

Most? Almost all. But there are millions of this card out there in collections where people don't even know card grading is a thing. The POP reports will continue to rise, especially as more and more auctions set record numbers and more learn about it.

There are 368 Luke PSA 8s. If 10 more show up this year, a 3% jump in population for a card like this is a lot!

[jdandns]

The crazy thing is that there are two cards in the set that have ZERO PSA10s after all this time, and plenty more with only 1, 2, or 3 copies.

In an admirable display of youthful vigor, I assembled a set of the first four series (blue, red, yellow, green) as a young child in California back in '77/'78, but eventually lost those originals at some point while I lived in New Mexico in the early 80's. I never even saw the fifth set, the orange one, so I didn't learn of its existence until much later. Those cards would've been in pretty nice shape, given that I was careful with them, relatively speaking, but I'm sure nearly all #1 cards from sets back then would now show more damage to them, just for being at the front of the stack during an era of unsleeved cards housed in boxes not specifically sized to store cards. I remember keeping my sets in a couple of empty wax display boxes until the lids eventually tore off.

This is a true story: When Star Wars was at its lowest ebb, in terms of collectible-value, around 1991, I remember going into a mostly comic book shop and the owner asking me if I wanted to buy some Star Wars cards. He had multiple sets of all 5 series with stickers, at $10 each. I said, sure, I'll take a full set of five for $50, Rosebud and all that. He gave me a little discount from the $50, so a certainly a good but not great buy back then. This included the orange set which I'd never seen before. I asked where he got so many and he told me that some fella brought in a pallet of wax box cases and sold them to him cheap. Remember, they weren't vintage then, and there was no internet to sell them on.

He said that he, his son, and a helper had taken 3 days opening all of the packs and sorting out sets. He had a lot of them in the display case, which usually just had a few sports cards. If he was selling those sets at $10, you can imagine how little he paid sealed boxes. I didn't think to ask what he did with the wrappers, but I'm pretty sure he'd have just thrown those away. I didn't think to ask for an empty display box, either or possibly an empty Topps case, which would have great value today. I don't know what he did with the dupe cards that didn't make sets, either, but those could have been tossed, too. I certainly didn't think to ask for them.

There was also no discussion of which C-3PO card was in the green set I was buying. I don't think that error was very widely known about in 1990. As it turned out, the set I bought had the error version.

So, anyway, with this set, which I still have, we can have an accurate view of what the average 1977 Star Wars card looked like coming straight out of a sealed pack in 1991 (and then kept stored by an official clector type like me for 35 more years). Look for a thread dedicated to that once I can get some scans. I'm curious myself as to what those cards look like, and if there are any that could be candidates for the high end hermetic sealing. I'm guessing centering alone would disqualify most. I do remember the gum had already left impressions on the stickers, so most of those are probably lower grade.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by jdandns

The crazy thing is that there are two cards in the set that have ZERO PSA10s after all this time, and plenty more with only 1, 2, or 3 copies.

In an admirable display of youthful vigor, I assembled a set of the first four series (blue, red, yellow, green) as a young child in California back in '77/'78, but eventually lost those originals at some point while I lived in New Mexico in the early 80's. I never even saw the fifth set, the orange one, so I didn't learn of its existence until much later. Those cards would've been in pretty nice shape, given that I was careful with them, relatively speaking, but I'm sure nearly all #1 cards from sets back then would now show more damage to them, just for being at the front of the stack during an era of unsleeved cards housed in boxes not specifically sized to store cards. I remember keeping my sets in a couple of empty wax display boxes until the lids eventually tore off.

This is a true story: When Star Wars was at its lowest ebb, in terms of collectible-value, around 1991, I remember going into a mostly comic book shop and the owner asking me if I wanted to buy some Star Wars cards. He had multiple sets of all 5 series with stickers, at $10 each. I said, sure, I'll take a full set of five for $50, Rosebud and all that. He gave me a little discount from the $50, so a certainly a good but not great buy back then. This included the orange set which I'd never seen before. I asked where he got so many and he told me that some fella brought in a pallet of wax box cases and sold them to him cheap. Remember, they weren't vintage then, and there was no internet to sell them on.

He said that he, his son, and a helper had taken 3 days opening all of the packs and sorting out sets. He had a lot of them in the display case, which usually just had a few sports cards. If he was selling those sets at $10, you can imagine how little he paid sealed boxes. I didn't think to ask what he did with the wrappers, but I'm pretty sure he'd have just thrown those away. I didn't think to ask for an empty display box, either or possibly an empty Topps case, which would have great value today. I don't know what he did with the dupe cards that didn't make sets, either, but those could have been tossed, too. I certainly didn't think to ask for them.

There was also no discussion of which C-3PO card was in the green set I was buying. I don't think that error was very widely known about in 1990. As it turned out, the set I bought had the error version.

So, anyway, with this set, which I still have, we can have an accurate view of what the average 1977 Star Wars card looked like coming straight out of a sealed pack in 1991 (and then kept stored by an official clector type like me for 35 more years). Look for a thread dedicated to that once I can get some scans. I'm curious myself as to what those cards look like, and if there are any that could be candidates for the high end hermetic sealing. I'm guessing centering alone would disqualify most. I do remember the gum had already left impressions on the stickers, so most of those are probably lower grade.

Can’t wait to see the thread for your set

Also that story is insane, considering a series 1 sealed box goes for what, $10k now? (someone fill me in). Sounds about as crazy as that pyramid of 96MM stacked boxes you saw at the comic con, if I’m remembering that correctly.

Frankly $10k a box doesnt even sound that ludicrous if that PSA 10 sale for $268k is legit. Cards won’t brick and wonder if a PSA 10 candidate could come from one. BUT…like said above, it’s doubtful a fresh pulled Luke would get a 10, with centering issues and possible corner dings in these somewhat haphazardly sealed wax packs.

[jdandns]

Marvel Masterpieces '96 story is also true, and that one stings a little more. While I had more money by 1998 when I saw the 96MM cards than in 1991 when I encountered the Star Wars sets, I didn't have very much with me by that fateful Sunday at Comic-Con, and I opted to get a case of Simpsons Playmates action figures with what I had left, eschewing the one MM box that I could've afforded for the $60 (cash only) they were charging for them.
D'oh!

[cmixer]

^ Don't get me started on "missed opportunities" at Comic-Cons.
I have too many painful memories.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by dd316

Most? Almost all. But there are millions of this card out there in collections where people don't even know card grading is a thing. The POP reports will continue to rise, especially as more and more auctions set record numbers and more learn about it.

There are 368 Luke PSA 8s. If 10 more show up this year, a 3% jump in population for a card like this is a lot!

And if a gem-mint-condition raw copy doesn't exist, one can artificially be made by PSA or through alteration.

Actually, I wonder how many of the nine PSA 10s are altered, considering how poor the condition of these cards were out of the pack.

[patchgenie]

300k for a base card. haha

[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by PoPCulture

I mean, Skywalker had possibly the best Rookie Season of anyone in Nonsports. From nearly being beaten to death by a Tusken Raider and losing the Aunt and Uncle that raised him in the same day to then losing the father figure that he had a close relationship with for about 36 hours to rescuing his sister from termination and finally blowing up a Death Star.

My question is why it took us earthlings so long to figure this out. Mickey Mantle did non of these things and his prices exploded decades ago!

You left out losing a hand....

[jdandns]

Since the loss of a hand happened in "Empire", that was during Skywalker's second season which definitely qualified as a sophomore slump, considering how much Luke got knocked around in that movie.

[dd316]

Originally Posted by patchgenie

300k for a base card. haha

You mean like a '52 Mantle?

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Actually, I wonder how many of the nine PSA 10s are altered, considering how poor the condition of these cards were out of the pack.

It's interesting sealed boxes go for such a premium. Yeah, if you pull a Luke it might have nice corners, but more than likely the centering is what will kill it.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by dd316

You mean like a '52 Mantle?

Good point. Or perhaps like a 1979 Topps Wayne Gretzky…almost similar to this…blue border card, Topps, roughly around the same time period. (who knows what a PSA 10 of that goes for).

There has been a push, especially since the pandemic, in non sports for each genre to define one card as “the” card to get, the so-called rookie. In Marvel it’s the ‘66 Donruss Spider-Man #34 fly a kite card, which in PSA 10 (I believe only a pop of 2) would probably surpass even an avg grade actual Amazing Fantasy #15 comic of Spideys 1st app- assuming a > $100k card easily. In wrestling cards it’s the 1982 yellow border Wrestling News Hulk Hogan RC which will go for super high amounts in high PSA grade. Each genre now has to have a “1986 Fleer Jordan” of its own now…a card that was once common but now is the designated valuable card, especially in high grade. It makes logical sense for it to be the 1977 Topps Luke #1. Main character, first card.

Ehhh…I know it’s a huge $-focused scheme and a shift that rapidly took place. (You could buy one of these Luke’s #1 or Spider-Man #34’s for like $5-10 tops before the pandemic craziness). But I don’t have major issue with it…at least it has the feel of after-the-fact organic demand, compared to manufactured scarcity. Like the 52 Mantle and 1986 Fleer Jordan or Amazing Fantasy #15 comic, it’s something that was once very cheap that now people scramble to find, especially in great condition. That is different than a /10 card that just came out this year.

Also we should be distinguishing the mere “base card Luke #1” (raw card, which does seem like there is a HUGE supply, and even now goes for just $40-50 maybe)…and any copy slabbed in at least an above avg grade (7 or more-ish). That is not merely a base card as a collectible, it’s a totally separate thing with its own pop, and it’s really an apples and oranges comparison.

[patchgenie]

not a "rookie" haha

must like lighting money on fire.

picked up a fonz "rc" for 25 cents

[IMG]
1976 Topps Happy Days - [Base] #42 - If you had my looks, Fonzie, chicks would be no problem!
Courtesy of COMC.com[/IMG]

will sell it to you for 300k haha

[PoPCulture]

Originally Posted by TimBuckTwo

You left out losing a hand....

Yes…I only included the events that happened during the 4-5 days we see in A New Hope

Originally Posted by jdandns

Since the loss of a hand happened in "Empire", that was during Skywalker's second season which definitely qualified as a sophomore slump, considering how much Luke got knocked around in that movie.

Not to be too technical but since 3 years went by between Battle of Yavin and the beginning of ESB, I count the events of Empire as his 4th year. Veteran at this point but not close to the HOFer that we will see another 3 years later.

[Rictor]

Originally Posted by KPOD

Most product has already been opened, and clean 8+ condition copies have long been graded. If you look at the history, the number of 8s and 9s added to the pop report is the last 5 years is an absurdly low percentage of the overall subs. I'd be surprised if even 10x PSA 8s were added to the pop report this year. These cards fresh out of the pack grade 6s, and sometimes 7s on a good day.

I'm always surprised at the huge amount of sealed Topps vintage Star Wars wax that's still out there. So much unsold product that set in warehouses for a couple decades back then and then moved into the collector market.

In the late 90s, when these boxes were in the $40-50 range, my local comic shop had cases and cases of the stuff. I doubt that anyone buying them was buying to open them.

I actually helped out in the store from time to time and would take my store credit payment for hours worked in the form of sealed Star Wars wax, LOL. I sold or traded it all years ago though. I see a lot of it in collections of people that just collect Star Wars and don't collect trading cards though. Lots of it at toy conventions. Those guys want full boxes to display, they're never going to open their packs and send them in for grading.

[DynaEtch]

Originally Posted by Rictor

I'm always surprised at the huge amount of sealed Topps vintage Star Wars wax that's still out there. So much unsold product that set in warehouses for a couple decades back then and then moved into the collector market.

In the late 90s, when these boxes were in the $40-50 range, my local comic shop had cases and cases of the stuff. I doubt that anyone buying them was buying to open them.

I actually helped out in the store from time to time and would take my store credit payment for hours worked in the form of sealed Star Wars wax, LOL. I sold or traded it all years ago though. I see a lot of it in collections of people that just collect Star Wars and don't collect trading cards though. Lots of it at toy conventions. Those guys want full boxes to display, they're never going to open their packs and send them in for grading.

I would not say the supply of unopened 1977 Topps SW boxes remaining is that plentiful. If it was, these boxes wouldnt be into the several thousands of dollars. Especially talking about the series 1 box unopened. It’s not a common find and there’s a reason the box goes for like $10k. Is it much more common than say a scarce 1966 Donruss Marvel box…sure.