2025 Topps Chrome Update

[cardcollector34]

Was at MLB Store this Wednesday. 65 for a blaster lol

[boxbuster7]

the only way people will stop is if they keep losing money

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

the only way people will stop is if they keep losing money

But I’m sure I’ll hit it big in the next break - I’m due!

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

But I’m sure I’ll hit it big in the next break - I’m due!

so is rent

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

so is rent

But my parents don’t charge me rent to stay in the basement.

When is the next break? I found another vein!

[WallyatJCCards]

Originally Posted by Chrominator

Breaking was fun when it was Houdini and you paid your share of the total cost.

. Ain’t that the truth. Firehand, cardsinfinity, and BO(Houdini) were all we needed in the good ole days!

[goyder43]

Originally Posted by WallyatJCCards

. Ain’t that the truth. Firehand, cardsinfinity, and BO(Houdini) were all we needed in the good ole days!

They were great until they set the precedent for what has come since.

[phil]

Originally Posted by crownand

News flash…

2025 Topps Chrome update hobby $350
2022 Topps Chrome Update hobby $149

Obviously good reasons not to open 2025 but not a fair comparison. 2022 was so bad Blowout had it for $499/case at one point.

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by goyder43

They were great until they set the precedent for what has come since.

chris retired because of it so wouldn't exactly say thats true

[ScooterD]

I’ve posted this before, but I don’t see why the breakers get “heat” for the price of wax. The may justify it due to the breaking model, but Topps/Fanatics is who sets the MSRP and determined the distro method(s).

Before there was a breaking culture, there were whales with F U money… they bought the expensive products, and Topps priced the product (to that small group) accordingly. I don’t remember seeing hate for the whales (the company’s price justification) in the past.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I’ve posted this before, but I don’t see why the breakers get “heat” for the price of wax. The may justify it due to the breaking model, but Topps/Fanatics is who sets the MSRP and determined the distro method(s).

Before there was a breaking culture, there were whales with F U money… they bought the expensive products, and Topps priced the product (to that small group) accordingly. I don’t remember seeing hate for the whales (the company’s price justification) in the past.

It’s not simply breakers that get the heat - they are just the easiest target because most act like idiots on camera.

It’s the whole breaking culture.

The degenerates who participate are the ones who have collectively increased the price of wax for everyone else - they have enabled the companies to massively increase prices on new wax by their participation. Ironically, many folks believe they are saving money by participating in a break, but collectively have driven up the price of wax on themselves and everyone else.

We’re at the point that even the middlemen and box flipper bois, entities who don’t even use the end product, have become frustrated and angry.

The breaker culture and the emphasis on gambling has made it more expensive for everybody, and as a result, fanatics is taking advantage of those market dynamics.

[TBTC Baseball]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I’ve posted this before, but I don’t see why the breakers get “heat” for the price of wax. The may justify it due to the breaking model, but Topps/Fanatics is who sets the MSRP and determined the distro method(s).

Before there was a breaking culture, there were whales with F U money… they bought the expensive products, and Topps priced the product (to that small group) accordingly. I don’t remember seeing hate for the whales (the company’s price justification) in the past.

Whales would buy, for example, $20K of high-end boxes that none of us “poors” would buy. The whales stayed in the deep water. That left the lower end stuff to be distributed to the rest, 100 collectors get their $20K in total of the low end stuff on the cheap to bust open. Then comes a single breaker that buys alone the $20K of the low-end stuff (times x breakers). Now those 100 collectors are trying to fight for the same stuff in the shallow water, and the price goes up.

I’m not blaming the whales that stayed in the deep water for prices going up, I’m blaming the sharks that moved into the shallow water.

Lots of similarities with the housing market. How many of these $400K average houses are really worth $400K. J

[hermanotarjeta]

It’s the poors that have collectively created this monstrosity.

The mentality started out that there was no way a poor “team collector” would pay $120 a box for a bunch of singles they didn’t want if they only collected one team, but they would be more than willing for the selectivity to pay $20 for only cards of their team. Get 29 other like-minded “team collectors”, and viola, you geniuses have just paid $600 for a $120 box.

Over time, mix in the compulsive degenerate gamblers, and now you are all paying $900 for that $120 box, because “it’s only” $30 a person.

The breaking culture is 100% responsible for the hate they get, and the funniest part is that they don’t even understand why.

[coupie21]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s the poors that have collectively created this monstrosity.

The mentality started out that there was no way a poor “team collector” would pay $120 a box for a bunch of singles they didn’t want if they only collected one team, but they would be more than willing for the selectivity to pay $20 for only cards of their team. Get 29 other like-minded “team collectors”, and viola, you geniuses have just paid $600 for a $120 box.

Over time, mix in the compulsive degenerate gamblers, and now you are all paying $900 for that $120 box, because “it’s only” $30 a person.

The breaking culture is 100% responsible for the hate they get, and the funniest part is that they don’t even understand why.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

We’re at the point that even the middlemen and box flipper bois, entities who don’t even use the end product, have become frustrated and angry.

If flipper bois flounder, I'm happy.

[fabiani12333]

Group breakers are providing a popular service. They didn't create the current market. They existed well before the 2020 boom and before Fanatics purchased Topps and the licenses.

If consumers want to gamble on trading cards by buying into the breaks, that's their prerogative. As someone who was collecting cards nearly ten years ago, the hobby has changed a lot since then. Trading cards were not nearly as popular or being treated as gambling products to the level that they are now. I thought I was kind of a dork for collecting cards back then. But here we are, with things completely upside down -- it's a strange world we live in now.

[PumpnDumpling]

Still haven't received my 2 preorder boxes lol

[storycollector]

I initially posted this in the Ginter thread by accident.

I was sort of "excited" about this product simply because Topps allegedly (allegedly) brought back Troy Tulowitzki (or "Tulowitski" if you refer to the checklist) in their Legends autographs checklist.

As such, I have spent a few dollars on his name in a few breaks (which has reminded how absurd this hobby has become, but it has been good entertainment whilst laying in bed while my wife rolls her eyes) and have spent a fair amount of time scouring everywhere I can to see evidence of one of these surface. It's been a week or so now and I have not found a single shred of evidence this card actually exists - there's 90 copies across the whole rainbow. I just want to see what image they used and if they misspelled his name on the card too, or just the checklist.

What happens if they just didn't pack it out? Is Fanatics liable to refund money to people who purchased a player based on the odds of pulling said player in their own company's breaking platform? I'm only talking about a small amount of money, so it's not about that, but more about the absurdity of it all. I am sure if I read the fine print, there's some bs in there, but feels class-actiony to me.

Anyway, has anyone seen one of these surface? I'd really like to find one.

[as a side note: most of these breaks have been complete garbage, and by my assessment the only value is in the breakers delight boxes - but even then, lots of trash. Don't get me started on the Disney case hits they're selling people on lol. Rough product.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[udkdon]

Still no pack odds, right? Therefore no production estimates for each box type?

[bub838]

Odds
https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/06...f?v=1765914204

[boxbuster7]

apparently (filth bomb) fanatics breaker pulled 6 debut patches and you guys actually think you have a fair shot at getting the good cards

lol

[Deef33]

There's a guy on Reddit who does breakdowns of production based on the odds and there were a couple of interesting notes:

Production looks to be up ~68% with a 5-7% margin of error due to Mega/Fanatics box issues below

The Mega box odds and Fanatics box odds are almost identical with the only differences being X-Fractor (Mega) vs Toppsfractor (Fanatics) and a small variance in Negative refractor odds. This was probably a copy/paste error, as Mega boxes are usually printed 6-10x more than Fanatics boxes

Fanatics Authentic Redemptions are available in both Mega boxes and Fanatics boxes - more proof of a copy paste error?

His math suggests that ~60% of Legend Autos and ~40-50% of Parallel Autos are withheld.

~35% of debut patches are in Breaker Delight boxes, ~25% in Hobby, ~25% in Jumbo, ~13% in blasters, ~1% in Mega/Fanatics

The math ain't quite mathing on this one.

[DylanPowers92]

Originally Posted by cardcollector34

Was at MLB Store this Wednesday. 65 for a blaster lol

crazy. Meijer had them for $50 and I couldn't believe it

[TBTC Baseball]

Originally Posted by Deef33

There's a guy on Reddit who does breakdowns of production based on the odds and there were a couple of interesting notes:

Production looks to be up ~68% with a 5-7% margin of error due to Mega/Fanatics box issues below

The Mega box odds and Fanatics box odds are almost identical with the only differences being X-Fractor (Mega) vs Toppsfractor (Fanatics) and a small variance in Negative refractor odds. This was probably a copy/paste error, as Mega boxes are usually printed 6-10x more than Fanatics boxes

Fanatics Authentic Redemptions are available in both Mega boxes and Fanatics boxes - more proof of a copy paste error?

His math suggests that ~60% of Legend Autos and ~40-50% of Parallel Autos are withheld.

~35% of debut patches are in Breaker Delight boxes, ~25% in Hobby, ~25% in Jumbo, ~13% in blasters, ~1% in Mega/Fanatics

The math and quite mathing on this one.

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseballcar...is_print_runs/

Total Cards in Product
2025: 40,200,424
This is likely closer to 46mil if regular Mega odds were understated. This conservative calculation at least gives us some context to see the bigger picture.
2024: 23,824,412
YOY: +68.7%
This is what reintroducing a whole extra retail SKU lets you do. It absolutely blows the top off production.

[boxbuster7]

the math ain't mathing cause all the fanatics breakers got the good cards and somehow it is legal for them to do that