First Buzz: 2025 Topps Heritage High Number baseball cards

[timber63401]

Got a case off Topps at presell or $89/bx. These days thats about as good a deal as you can get for anything Hobby. Heritage isn't everyone's cup of tea but Ive always been a sucker for it. The people on here saying it will be $50 a box 3 years from now might be right but by then half the better RCs will be duds and everyone wanting a set will already have one. if you put the work in to put sets together and sell Im guess at release most cases will have a $500ish floor on value. People ate it way worse then that on cases of Topps Chrome this year. Especially the Jumbos.

[timber63401]

Anyone get a label created notice on this yet?

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by timber63401

Anyone get a label created notice on this yet?

My two boxes have been shipped and are scheduled to arrive on Wednesday the 17th.

[timber63401]

Originally Posted by mfw13

My two boxes have been shipped and are scheduled to arrive on Wednesday the 17th.

Thanks. Hopefully mine ship tomorrow.

[Funkster]

Just got the shipment notification too


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[phil]

my HHN is out for delivery as is Archives, probably on same truck lol

[GWUNukie]

I ordered a case and 6 additional boxes (Heritage is my favorite). Got the shipping notice for the 6 boxes this morning, but nothing on the case yet.

[edclay]

Originally Posted by GWUNukie

I ordered a case and 6 additional boxes (Heritage is my favorite). Got the shipping notice for the 6 boxes this morning, but nothing on the case yet.

I'm in the same boat. Boxes show shipped but not case.

[TarjetasBéisbol]

Just got the shipping info for 2 cases.

[Ajax1723]

Still waiting on mine, hoping to manifest again.

[TarjetasBéisbol]

Delivery on Wednesday for my order.

[timber63401]

I got an email saying my label was created at 638 this morning. As of 2 minutes ago tracking showing it hasn't made it in Fed Exs hands yet. Bet I dont get mine until Thursday.

[bustsomewax]

Wonder when people will realize there’s no retail of this…

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

Wonder when people will realize there’s no retail of this…

So what you're telling us is it's SSSP.

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by bustsomewax

Wonder when people will realize there’s no retail of this…

Does that make it better or worse? My guess is worse if they keep the print close to previous years.

[ClevelandIC]

Originally Posted by mikejones

Does that make it better or worse? My guess is worse if they keep the print close to previous years.

There is a lot of information out there! Always be learning

From @WaxMetrix on X:

This release is Hobby only. No retail products at all (assuming the odds sheet is correct in that regard). That alone will significantly reduce print runs, and honestly, I’m not mad about it. This could end up being one of the better recent Heritage releases as a result.

That said… parts of this odds sheet simply do not make sense. I’ll spare you the full deep dive into the chaos, but several auto and relic odds are not cohesive with the rest, and some combinations cannot be reconciled mathematically. I'm confident with most of my findings, but a handful of autos and relics are almost certainly understated. Fortunately, this is a small slice of the overall picture, so aggregate numbers should still be very close.

Total Boxes Produced
Hobby- 74,068 boxes (6,172 cases)

Let’s compare to 2024 Heritage High, one of the strongest Heritage releases in recent memory:
2024 Heritage High:
Hobby- 65,090 boxes (5,424 cases)
YOY +13.8%

But here’s the twist: 2024 HHN also included 5,400 cases of Value Boxes. 2025 has zero retail, which results in:
Total Card Production:
2025 HHN- 14,221,000
024 HHN- 28,051,000
Overall YOY production down 49.3%

For context, 2025 Heritage produced 85.6 million cards.

Production Numbers Similar to This Release
2024 Bowman Chrome- 16.84m
2025 Topps Chrome Disney- 16m
2025 HHN- 14.22m
2025 Topps Chrome F1- 11.85m
2025 Topps Chrome Marvel Studios- 10.42m

Heritage High now falls into the same general production tier as niche Chrome lines, far lower than most major MLB releases.

Base Card Production
2025- 11,575,000 (57,875 copies each)
2024- 23,924,500 (119,623 copies each)

Hit Frequencies
Based on stated odds, autos + relics work out to 0.8 hits per box… but we know each box contains at least one auto or relic. That means Topps understated odds by 20%+ somewhere. All I can do is report what the numbers say.

Mathematically, autos should fall 1:4 boxes, though actual rates may be slightly higher. A 12-box case should yield 3-4 autos, consistent with prior years.

Avg parallels/box- 28.2
Avg inserts/box- 7.25
Avg numbered cards/box- 4 (Please note that this only includes actual numbered cards. There are several scarce parallels & variations in this product that are not numbered.)

Print Runs
Unnumbered Parallels
Dark Blue- ~2,540 ea
Base Chrome- ~2,000 ea
Chrome Light Blue Sparkle- ~2,540 ea
High # SP Chrome- ~2,000 ea
High # SP Chrome Light Blue Sparkle- ~2,640 ea Alternate Cartoon (30-card set)- 370 ea
Flipped Bat (10-card set)- 370 ea
Image Variation (50-card set)- 370 ea
Nickname Variation (10-card set)- 370 ea
High # SP- ~6,000 ea
High # SP Dark Blue Border- ~2,640 ea
Throwback Uniform Variation (10-card set)- ~35 ea

Inserts
1976 Retires (15 card set)- ~6,000 ea
1976 Retires Holographic- ~1,000 ea
Award Winners (10 card set)- ~6,000 ea
Award Winners Holographic- ~1,000 ea
Bicentennial Stars (15 card set)- ~6,000 ea Bicentennial Stars Holographic- ~1,000 ea
Perfect 10s (13 card set)- ~5,800 ea
Perfect 10s Holographic- ~1,000 ea
Rookie Performers (15 card set)- ~6,000 ea
Rookie Performers Holographic- ~1,000 ea Undefeated (7 card set)- ~6,000 ea
Undefeated Holographic- ~1,000 ea
1976 Topps Originals ~22,800 total inserted (no checklist provided)

Autos
Real One Autos- math computes to ~200 copies each, but I believe true run likely 400-450 ea
All other autos appear serial-numbered.

There are some new fascinating auto additions-
Wax Pack autos & Bicentennial Auto Relics look to be /76. Real One Black & White autos feature 17 players from the 1970s and look to be /25.

Relics
Clubhouse Collection Relics (59 cards)- ~530 ea

[timber63401]

Still showing nothing on my case since label created yesterday morning. Boooo.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by ClevelandIC

There is a lot of information out there! Always be learning

From @WaxMetrix on X:

Thanks for that, following them now. Good account!

Based on another reply from that account: https://x.com/WaxMetrix/status/1998996891028324590?s=20

Not watered down by retail, correct. But also the entire release shrunk. So I don't see it feeling much more juiced than usual because everything was reduced across the board. Hit ratios are not changing greatly.

[baseballguy350]

Have refractors always been unnumbered?

[ClevelandIC]

Originally Posted by baseballguy350

Have refractors always been unnumbered?

Started with regular heritage this year. Unnumbered chrome and refractors - the trade out was numbered refractors of the traditional colors (Blue /150, Green /99, Gold switch to /50, Orange /25, Red /5) - Black to 76 and Supers stayed the same

[mfw13]

My two boxes just got delivered....gotta resist the temptation to open them both too quickly......

Gonna try to do one box today and one tomorrow.....

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by mfw13

My two boxes just got delivered....gotta resist the temptation to open them both too quickly......

Gonna try to do one box today and one tomorrow.....

Good luck!

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Good luck!

Thanks!

Halfway through box #1......pulled a red ink auto of a mediocre 27-year-old "rookie" (Carson McCusker), and one of the two SP's so far was Nick Kurtz.

Serial numbers are now so small as to be unreadable to the naked eye

[wilsonsingles]

this is not looking good.
have watched a few breaks and the serial numbered hits are way down compared to last year.

way too many unnumbered parallels and a lot less autos per case as well.

this is going to tank like 2023 and before

expect it to drop to $60 a box.

[phil]

Originally Posted by wilsonsingles

expect it to drop to $60 a box.

Not likely with the heavy-handed way Fanatics is controlling distribution and pricing now. Might drop back to around MSRP if it's that bad.