First Buzz: 2025-26 Topps Chrome NBA cards

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

If we all accept the fact that there will no longer be a money tree from sealed wax going forward, perhaps the challenge of making money in the singles market could be the next frontier for you to conquer. There are certain cards every year that perform better than most other investments. In the singles market, you have a fair opportunity - your insight and perhaps some luck can help you win.

The easy money in wax is gone, we all need to accept that. Beat the game on a fairer playing field - the singles market.

It hasn't been a money tree for most buyers over the last several years. For almost any buyer that isn't getting allocation or a bot making any real money the last several years you had to take a risk virtually every time.

The chance to take reasonable risks will be gone. No auctions. Too many issues with scam and fraud on the secondary market. Too much issue with the Topps sealed case premium and potential issues with sealed cases from reasonably priced secondary sellers. No clue when and how many times Topps will dump their held back inventory on the secondary market. No NFTs or NFT packs. No ability to buy any type of in demand Instant or Topps Now type cards from Topps/Fanatics. Can't even buy in bulk a sleeper product direct from Topps because of the hard household limits. Im sure there are more Im missing.

I'd rather take my chances on stocks than the singles market in sports cards. The vast majority of people investing in stocks the last 4 years are not only up but way up. I can't imagine the percentage of people up anything worth mentioning on singles the last 4 years is a very high number. If you're just buying and holding cards without grading, cleaning/some type of scam, or hitting a needle in a haystack it's gotta be close to impossible. The best bet would be 5+ figure cards of the all time greats but I still think you're better off investing in reasonably safe stock funds. I don't have to worry that 6 figures I put in a stock has a fake or tampered with auto or patch, card trimmed/cleaned, victim of grading fraud, etc like I do with many ultra high end sports cards. Plus when I sell the stock it takes 2 seconds.

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I highly doubt Topps isn't making the distributors take a certain amount of lower-demand product as well. Just because Topps sells a certain amount of product on their website doesn't mean a good chunk of it isn't also going to distributors as part of regular allocation. Topps doesn't need distributors to sell in-demand product. They don't need them to set initial prices either, as they have their own network of direct accounts. The distributors are valued for how much volume they purchase. And yeah, also because they advertise very high initial prices.

They don't make them take the junk on future waves. At release at or below the MSRP price yes.

Lol how much volume they purchase? What is this 2018? The volume they purchase hasn't meant jack **** since 2019. Do you realize that every single person that knows about it would get on their hands and knees and beg for those big allocations if they ever became available? I can't think of a bigger guarantee in anything as a business in the world this decade than a major distributors full allocation from Panini and Topps.

These other businesses have made more profit this decade than the total sales price Panini and Topps have sold them these allocations for. You do realize there is no other business on earth that operates this way correct? No one else is going to give away billions of dollars of somewhat limited, in demand, easy to sell items and let the secondary seller, before even having the product in hand, sell for more profit than they paid the initial seller. Certainly not on a regular basis. For 6 years straight.

[jkampis]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I highly doubt Topps isn't making the distributors take a certain amount of lower-demand product as well. Just because Topps sells a certain amount of product on their website doesn't mean a good chunk of it isn't also going to distributors as part of regular allocation. Topps doesn't need distributors to sell in-demand product. They don't need them to set initial prices either, as they have their own network of direct accounts. The distributors are valued for how much volume they purchase. And yeah, also because they advertise very high initial prices.

Moss is talking out of his butt again. As a shop owner and having talked to breakers, I can tell you that they want us to buy the vast majority of products. Some turn out great while others do not. And, yes, as many have said on this forum before, there is often a second wave at market price on release day that accounts for our overall take rate.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by jkampis

Moss is talking out of his butt again. As a shop owner and having talked to breakers, I can tell you that they want us to buy the vast majority of products. Some turn out great while others do not. And, yes, as many have said on this forum before, there is often a second wave at market price on release day that accounts for our overall take rate.

Lol talking out of my butt. What did I say that's 100% false? The fact you say the majority, and not all is telling. The fact you say they want you to buy versus basically force you to buy is obviously telling. Especially as I doubt you're anywhere near the top of the totem pole. If they aren't forcing you to buy the losers or low profit margin products, obviously they are letting the guys at the top they favor the most do what they want.

There is no rhyme or reason to when the additional waves are released. Those waves are rarely release day.

The fact the average in demand product less than 10%, hell most less than 5% are available to the general public now is a joke. Basketball Sapphire probably less than 1% went to the general public. You have products with 50k+ boxes where general public has a hard cap at buying max 2 boxes. I have no doubt the average buyer won't be able to purchase a single case via EQL or Topps website release for any in demand product for any sport for the entire year. You could try on any in demand one now and easily go 0 for 25+.

I know with 100% certainty from selling, people I've talked to about actual and potential buying and selling, and what I see on dealernet. I also know because it has cost me sales a handful of times. The potential buyers flat out told me that's why they were no longer interested at a certain price. Some of these were much earlier in 2025 when very few if any people were talking about it online. It's gained more traction now because it's happening with higher and higher amounts. Unlike you and the chosen few, I have no reason to lie because I don't have to sing for my supper.

Regardless, it's not like what Im saying is going to change anything. Enough people have to complain to change it. As long as they even have a needle in a haystack chance they won't. It has to be 0%. Which is one of the reasons I hope Fanatics ends all in demand product sales to the general public.

There is a reason that you never hear about someone with allocation willingly no longer taking that allocation. It's been the surest thing and easy to sell goldmine this decade. Anyone that follows it knows it.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by weatherwarrior

He is the most cringe worthy watch on YouTube. He was definitely heavy on his panini influence.

But good lord he is an atrocious watch. Followed by Sky-B, and RGL.

I have to watch on mute. Lol.

Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

I don’t watch him or RGL, but that’s more for his shadiness.

I do like Sky-B.

[22emmittfan]

This actually made me even more pissed off about mega blue xfractor “printing error” bs. Someone should get fired at topps for not doing their job correctly. Box designer you have one job. See lots of people cancelled their stadium club baseball because of an error, at least they caught it.

Has to be a good lawyer , if that’s possible, that can take up the charge for false advertising.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...f55487a1d0.jpg

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

It hasn't been a money tree for most buyers over the last several years. For almost any buyer that isn't getting allocation or a bot making any real money the last several years you had to take a risk virtually every time.

The chance to take reasonable risks will be gone. No auctions. Too many issues with scam and fraud on the secondary market. Too much issue with the Topps sealed case premium and potential issues with sealed cases from reasonably priced secondary sellers. No clue when and how many times Topps will dump their held back inventory on the secondary market. No NFTs or NFT packs. No ability to buy any type of in demand Instant or Topps Now type cards from Topps/Fanatics. Can't even buy in bulk a sleeper product direct from Topps because of the hard household limits. Im sure there are more Im missing.

I'd rather take my chances on stocks than the singles market in sports cards. The vast majority of people investing in stocks the last 4 years are not only up but way up. I can't imagine the percentage of people up anything worth mentioning on singles the last 4 years is a very high number. If you're just buying and holding cards without grading, cleaning/some type of scam, or hitting a needle in a haystack it's gotta be close to impossible. The best bet would be 5+ figure cards of the all time greats but I still think you're better off investing in reasonably safe stock funds. I don't have to worry that 6 figures I put in a stock has a fake or tampered with auto or patch, card trimmed/cleaned, victim of grading fraud, etc like I do with many ultra high end sports cards. Plus when I sell the stock it takes 2 seconds.



They don't make them take the junk on future waves. At release at or below the MSRP price yes.

Lol how much volume they purchase? What is this 2018? The volume they purchase hasn't meant jack **** since 2019. Do you realize that every single person that knows about it would get on their hands and knees and beg for those big allocations if they ever became available? I can't think of a bigger guarantee in anything as a business in the world this decade than a major distributors full allocation from Panini and Topps.

These other businesses have made more profit this decade than the total sales price Panini and Topps have sold them these allocations for. You do realize there is no other business on earth that operates this way correct? No one else is going to give away billions of dollars of somewhat limited, in demand, easy to sell items and let the secondary seller, before even having the product in hand, sell for more profit than they paid the initial seller. Certainly not on a regular basis. For 6 years straight.

Regarding stocks, that’s one of the best insights I’ve seen you ever give here. They are so much more liquid and much more regulated as a legitimate investment. Most of people’s money should be there, and only a small fraction in this hobby. Excellent advice.

[comicbooksgo]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

I don’t watch him or RGL, but that’s more for his shadiness.

I do like Sky-B.

Pac Man is annoying AF. Terrible watch with his voice and speech patterns worse than nails on a chalkboard. Do you mean RGL is shady too or just Pacman? I like Sky-B too.

[CardClub2Elect]

Too each their own but I have no idea how anybody likes SkyB. The cardgasm thing gives me douchechills and he acts like a 5 year old that got their toys taken away when he gets skunked. That said, I blocked his videos from me feed over a year ago so maybe he is better now. I don't watch much box opening on YouTube anymore but my favorites were the Slvrsport guys, they pretty much do football exclusively though.

[weatherwarrior]

Originally Posted by CardClub2Elect

Too each their own but I have no idea how anybody likes SkyB. The cardgasm thing gives me douchechills and he acts like a 5 year old that got their toys taken away when he gets skunked. That said, I blocked his videos from me feed over a year ago so maybe he is better now. I don't watch much box opening on YouTube anymore but my favorites were the Slvrsport guys, they pretty much do football exclusively though.

This was my reasoning for Sky-b too. He comes across as a petulant child when doesn't pull sssp super mojo...

Im too old for it I guess. Lol.

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[WhiteoutJustin]

Topps making right the blue x-fractor screw up on mega boxes, offering a 1 for 1 exchange through their defect submission process.


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[msw1984]

Here's the tweet for those interested.

https://x.com/topps/status/2017704299342749946

Topps will be printing Blue X-Fractors and offering collectors the ability to exchange silver X-Fractors for Blue X-Fractors on a one-for-one basis.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by WhiteoutJustin

Topps making right the blue x-fractor screw up on mega boxes, offering a 1 for 1 exchange through their defect submission process.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by msw1984

Here's the tweet for those interested.

https://x.com/topps/status/2017704299342749946

Topps will be printing Blue X-Fractors and offering collectors the ability to exchange silver X-Fractors for Blue X-Fractors on a one-for-one basis.

Translation: Since you guys complained so much, we decided to toss you a bone. Most importantly, we don't want to get sued.

Them adding the "we don't think there is any value difference" is an unnecessary jab to everyone that bought Megas hoping for Blue Xs.

[kwamebrown]

Originally Posted by msw1984

Here's the tweet for those interested.

https://x.com/topps/status/2017704299342749946

Topps will be printing Blue X-Fractors and offering collectors the ability to exchange silver X-Fractors for Blue X-Fractors on a one-for-one basis.

I wonder how many they'll actually print. Could be an interesting arbitrage scenario if the Flagg Blue X-fractor sells for more than the Silver.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by kwamebrown

I wonder how many they'll actually print. Could be an interesting arbitrage scenario if the Flagg Blue X-fractor sells for more than the Silver.

Pretty sure there will be less Blues.

How many people are keeping wax sealed? And there are only 6 months to get orders in.

[comicbooksgo]

I wonder if this means the blue you get is random or if it's the exact same card/player..

[Boo]

Originally Posted by comicbooksgo

I wonder if this means the blue you get is random or if it's the exact same card/player..

Might be random, on the sample sheet, it say “indicate qty”. If that is the case, it might be worth it to buy scrubs and see if you can get something good back.

[kwamebrown]

Originally Posted by comicbooksgo

I wonder if this means the blue you get is random or if it's the exact same card/player..

I would assume it's for the exact same card/player otherwise everyone would send in their junk x-fractors hoping for a Flagg or other RCs in return.

[msw1984]

Originally Posted by comicbooksgo

I wonder if this means the blue you get is random or if it's the exact same card/player..

Same player. It says on a one for one basis.

Topps will be printing Blue X-Fractors and offering collectors the ability to exchange Silver X-Fractors for Blue X-Fractors on a one-for-one basis

https://ripped.topps.com/update-25-2...ll-x-fractors/

[msw1984]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Pretty sure there will be less Blues.

How many people are keeping wax sealed? And there are only 6 months to get orders in.

5 months actually! Till the end of June.

I wonder if megas will start selling out now with people chasing Flagg base xfractors to exchange for blue ones.

Edit: megas are already sold out on Topps!

[Boo]

Originally Posted by msw1984

Same player. It says on a one to one basis.

Which can mean one x for one blue.

[kwamebrown]

Originally Posted by Boo

Which can mean one x for one blue.

Can you imagine someone sending in 100 Cooper Flagg silvers expecting 100 Flagg blues and in return Topps sends back 100 random/junk blues hahaha

[Boo]

Originally Posted by kwamebrown

Can you imagine someone sending in 100 Cooper Flagg silvers expecting 100 Flagg blues and in return Topps sends back 100 random/junk blues hahaha

I just don’t trust Topps, maybe they do the right thing this time.

[kwamebrown]

Originally Posted by Boo

I just don’t trust Topps, maybe they do the right thing this time.

Yea I don't trust Topps either. They need to be more specific. It's obviously not clear what you get in return for sending in your silver x-fractor.

[Asian62150]

If people send in Cooper and don't get Cooper, there's going to be rioting in the streets.

But yes, Topps should be 100% clear and specific. It's sad that we don't even trust them to do a simple exchange when they're the ones that messed up to begin with.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

If people send in Cooper and don't get Cooper, there's going to be rioting in the streets.

But yes, Topps should be 100% clear and specific. It's sad that we don't even trust them to do a simple exchange when they're the ones that messed up to begin with.

No doubt that’s what should happen. I’m sure they will be bombarded with questions and will have to make it clear.

Imagine someone sending in hundreds, is Topps paying them to go card by card to pull the blues?