Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

You just laid out all of the reasons 2012 is worth such a premium in your post. Weirdly, you then argued against it in the same post.

I'm stating both sides, pros and cons. But at the end of the day I don't see Prizm is special even 2012 "first year". It's a rip off of Topps Chrome and Pacific Prism even, other shiny chrome like sets that came before. It's not high end. It's cool and popular, sure, but it's nothing special. It's pumped. And in terms of Mahomes I understand it more than Brady, it's his Chrome RC.

Why do we not see this premium given to other sets first year appearance?

With Select we sort of do, again another pumped set basically. I understand it's the TC/BC premium yet accessible and popular set. But we don't see this "phenomenon" happen with other players non-rookie cards with BC/TC.

We don't see these types of premiums typically happening. I know Force continues to make the PMG analogy, but it's false. There are only 1.5 releases or 3 different sets containing PMGs. They weren't immediately preserved and graded, it was more organic. With Prizm Gold /10 there are now 11 iterations for Brady specifically, and 8 for Mahomes I believe. Mahomes has a RC at least, but then further in 2017 there's probably 20 other parallels.

Point is, the PMG analogy doesn't really work. And we don't see first year XYZ sets getting this premium for either guy, necessarily or really at all. Why? Because in 2012 when it was less watered down there were over 70+ unique sets between Panini and Topps. And it only got worse from there. There is no logical reason why the 2002 or 2003 Finest set Gold or Gold Xfractors (just as rare as 2012 Prizm Gold) go for far less, or 2002 Brady Bowman Chrome Gold /50 which probably has a pop of 10-20 tops, has two 10k sales and a 50k as it's highest. None of that really "adds up". It's prisoner of the moment FOMO and pumping, but I've ranted enough.

I think the pendulum will swing back in the future. For a card like a 2002 Finest Gold or 2002 Bowman Chrome gold /50 to be worth 10x to 50x less than a 2012 Prizm Gold is laughable to me, brain damaged in fact. Brady barely has a 2001 card, so his 3rd year 2002 card after a paltry print run of his 2nd year isn't worth more than his year 13? That's how cards typically operated for 100 years+ prior to the 2000s. Earlier playing years = better, generally.

But we'll see. I understand why 2012 Prizm Gold is valued. Cool card. Definitely pumped. PMGs are cooler, rarer, also pumped. Mahomes thread so not trying to make 90 Brady examples on all the Mahomies heads, my bad.

[jacksonjj]

Some people would rather have PMGs. Some people would rather have Kabooms. Some people would rather have gold prizms. And rarely does it make sense.

At the end of the day it really doesn't matter what everyone else wants to spend money on. You can collect what you like and so can everyone. I find no analogy whatsoever in comparing PMGs to anything prizm or kabooms, but some people do. Good for them.

What was highly valued in 2000 was great for 2000 people. We have social media now and highly accessible and visible influencers now, and they aren't going to go away any time soon, so naturally what they collect will be highly coveted, and visa versa.

[TheCrow]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

mind boggling price for that.

That's what I kind of thought. Someone definitely wanted it more than I do

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Tea10

I'm stating both sides, pros and cons. But at the end of the day I don't see Prizm is special even 2012 "first year". It's a rip off of Topps Chrome and Pacific Prism even, other shiny chrome like sets that came before. It's not high end. It's cool and popular, sure, but it's nothing special. It's pumped. And in terms of Mahomes I understand it more than Brady, it's his Chrome RC.

Why do we not see this premium given to other sets first year appearance?

1948 Leaf
1952 Topps
1957 Topps (basketball)
1986 Fleer
1996 Topps Chrome
2003 Exquisite

That's just off the top of my head. There are tons of 1st year sets which have a tremendous premium attached to them.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

1948 Leaf
1952 Topps
1957 Topps (basketball)
1986 Fleer
1996 Topps Chrome
2003 Exquisite

That's just off the top of my head. There are tons of 1st year sets which have a tremendous premium attached to them.

1993 Finest Baseball too

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

1948 Leaf
1952 Topps
1957 Topps (basketball)
1986 Fleer
1996 Topps Chrome
2003 Exquisite

That's just off the top of my head. There are tons of 1st year sets which have a tremendous premium attached to them.

Not trying to have a debate off and you make a valid point with your list but:

- 1948 had two sets total that year (Bowman, Leaf) and Jackie Robinson RC is only in Leaf. To your point, Leaf had a great looking card set at the time.

- 1952 is Mantle "RC" iconic, great looking set. Only two sets again - Topps and Bowman.

- 1957 Topps Basketball I'm not familiar with but I assume that is RC or "RC" of Wilt and Russell and others, maybe first respectable set of cards for NBA.

- 1986 Fleer = Jordan RC --- hyped/pumped set due to that, it looks okay too

- 1996 Topps Chrome = Kobe RC, but I agree you can argue this is the first TC/Prizm year and it's more special. But let's break it down - on Fanatics/PWCC sold the first 32 sales are Kobe. Then there's one Ray Allen. Then about 10 more Kobes mixed in with two Allen Iversons

A lot (all) of the sales seems sus to begin with but as I look further it's about 95% Kobe on the list. There's a few AI and Ray Allens and one Jeter mixed in for 96' TC. Just saying, it's carried by a RC of a cult favorite all-timer.

- 2003 Exquisite - LeBron RC. Pumped and hyped set but very high end, etc. Great set for sure.

The takeaway I clearly see here is that all of these other sets have an all-time great RC of an all-time player or hobby icon in them. 2012 Prizm doesn't. It's an outlier. And for football the highest valued card is Brady, who had his first TC and BC cards well before 2012 at earlier years in career. I'm not arguing Prizm 2012's value. It is what it is. But it is manipulated.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

1948 Leaf
1952 Topps
1957 Topps (basketball)
1986 Fleer
1996 Topps Chrome
2003 Exquisite

That's just off the top of my head. There are tons of 1st year sets which have a tremendous premium attached to them.

Originally Posted by Tea10

Not trying to have a debate off and you make a valid point with your list but:

- 1948 had two sets total that year (Bowman, Leaf) and Jackie Robinson RC is only in Leaf. To your point, Leaf had a great looking card set at the time.

- 1952 is Mantle "RC" iconic, great looking set. Only two sets again - Topps and Bowman.

- 1957 Topps Basketball I'm not familiar with but I assume that is RC or "RC" of Wilt and Russell and others, maybe first respectable set of cards for NBA.

- 1986 Fleer = Jordan RC --- hyped/pumped set due to that, it looks okay too

- 1996 Topps Chrome = Kobe RC, but I agree you can argue this is the first TC/Prizm year and it's more special. But let's break it down - on Fanatics/PWCC sold the first 32 sales are Kobe. Then there's one Ray Allen. Then about 10 more Kobes mixed in with two Allen Iversons

A lot (all) of the sales seems sus to begin with but as I look further it's about 95% Kobe on the list. There's a few AI and Ray Allens and one Jeter mixed in for 96' TC. Just saying, it's carried by a RC of a cult favorite all-timer.

- 2003 Exquisite - LeBron RC. Pumped and hyped set but very high end, etc. Great set for sure.

The takeaway I clearly see here is that all of these other sets have an all-time great RC of an all-time player or hobby icon in them. 2012 Prizm doesn't. It's an outlier. And for football the highest valued card is Brady, who had his first TC and BC cards well before 2012 at earlier years in career. I'm not arguing Prizm 2012's value. It is what it is. But it is manipulated.

You guys both make some good points (yes, even Packer dude).

I do think most landmark sets are that way mostly because there's at least one single big RC to chase. Take MJ out of 1986 Fleer and (H)Akeem/Malone/Barkley/Ewing couldn't keep it anywhere near as popular as it is today.

1993 Finest Baseball might be the exception with no hot RCs because that was the first year of refractors in any sport. But in basketball, 1993 Finest isn't as hot. If it was made in 1992 (Shaquille) or C-Webb/Penny were all-time greats, that might have more staying power.

Same with 2012 Prizm NBA. So many All-Star RCs from a double class, too! AD, Kyrie, Kawhi, Buckets, Klay, Draymond, Beal, etc...but no all-timers in terms of hobby standing.

[pejc300]

Is it just me or do the Chiefs have another freaking difficult schedule again this year? Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Patriots, Broncos and Charges x 2, Rams, and the freaking Bills. Absolute gauntlet. No favors were done here.

Also, is there a reason why we play the Bills every single year? I don't know anything about scheduling except for playing your own division twice and then playing one other division.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Is it just me or do the Chiefs have another freaking difficult schedule again this year? Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Patriots, Broncos and Charges x 2, Rams, and the freaking Bills. Absolute gauntlet. No favors were done here.

Also, is there a reason why we play the Bills every single year? I don't know anything about scheduling except for playing your own division twice and then playing one other division.

It does rank as one of the tougher schedules in the league based on prior year's record, but a lot of that is because the AFC West had 2 playoff teams and the NFC West, who they play, had 3.

Bye Week 5 is a mixed blessing. *IF* it turns out Mahomes has to miss some time, then Week 6 would be a likely target. Vegas seems to be betting that he doesn't, however.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by tjforce

It does rank as one of the tougher schedules in the league based on prior year's record, but a lot of that is because the AFC West had 2 playoff teams and the NFC West, who they play, had 3.

Bye Week 5 is a mixed blessing. *IF* it turns out Mahomes has to miss some time, then Week 6 would be a likely target. Vegas seems to be betting that he doesn't, however.

Oh, no. The vaunted Week 5 bye. That sucks. The Packers had that last year - we were decimated at the end.

[Tea10]

Really nothing going on in the NFL if people are dissecting schedules to this degree

[CorndogWasp]

because they just came out yesterday, its the news of the week

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by CorndogWasp

because they just came out yesterday, its the news of the week

Fair enough, I just don't buy too much into the schedules and all that. I'm saying it's the dead part of the NFL offseason and people are grasping at straws about matchups, etc.

[daveyc1]

that is a really tough schedule. it doesnt help that their division is also really tough.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by Tea10

Fair enough, I just don't buy too much into the schedules and all that. I'm saying it's the dead part of the NFL offseason and people are grasping at straws about matchups, etc.

NFL is absolutely brilliant at this. They have by far the shortest schedule of games of the four major sports, but somehow they control almost the entire year.

Jan - Playoffs
Feb - Super Bowl
Mar - Free agency
Apr - Combine/Draft
May - Schedule Release
Jun - Minicamps
Jul - Training Camp
Aug - Preseason
Sept-Dec - Regular Season

Even though most teams just play 4 months, ppl literally talk NFL the entire calendar year. They've even taken over Christmas, which was typically the NBA's big regular season day.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Oh, no. The vaunted Week 5 bye. That sucks. The Packers had that last year - we were decimated at the end.

The only way it pays off is if Mahomes needs a month off.

-Broncos
-Colts
-Dolphins
-Raiders....
-Bye week

There'd be a shot to be 2-2 coming out of that with Fields as QB. They'll be favorites in all 4 with Mahomes (assuming health outlook remains the same as it is now, Vegas has them -2.5 week 1 already).

But yeah, after that it's a tough bye situation... But at least no Christmas game this year!

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

NFL is absolutely brilliant at this. They have by far the shortest schedule of games of the four major sports, but somehow they control almost the entire year.

Jan - Playoffs
Feb - Super Bowl
Mar - Free agency
Apr - Combine/Draft
May - Schedule Release
Jun - Minicamps
Jul - Training Camp
Aug - Preseason
Sept-Dec - Regular Season

Even though most teams just play 4 months, ppl literally talk NFL the entire calendar year. They've even taken over Christmas, which was typically the NBA's big regular season day.

Oh 1000% they dominate the entire year. Maybe a few months where it's not so relevant but this year with Vrabel as well? Been relevant year round.

It's my favorite sport for a reason too, and I assume most of the people posting here. Personally I always had MMA as my 1A/1B with football but baseball/basketball is just a tier down or two, Hockey is a niche sport by comparison.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The only way it pays off is if Mahomes needs a month off.

-Broncos
-Colts
-Dolphins
-Raiders....
-Bye week

There'd be a shot to be 2-2 coming out of that with Fields as QB. They'll be favorites in all 4 with Mahomes (assuming health outlook remains the same as it is now, Vegas has them -2.5 week 1 already).

But yeah, after that it's a tough bye situation... But at least no Christmas game this year!

I don't know. If I'm Mahomes and the Chiefs, I'd rather have him miss 5 games and go 2-3 with a bye week later in the season, than for him to come off a major knee injury, miss only 4 games, but have to play 13 straight games.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

I don't know. If I'm Mahomes and the Chiefs, I'd rather have him miss 5 games and go 2-3 with a bye week later in the season, than for him to come off a major knee injury, miss only 4 games, but have to play 13 straight games.

Gotta see how it plays out...

The worry though was that with the overall schedule they could have absolutely loaded the first 4-5 weeks to the point where 0-5 or 1-4 with Fields was in the mix. Something like Denver, Seattle, Chargers, Rams, 49ers.

All in all, the schedule make up seems to be somewhere in the middle considering the teams they have to play. I could be happier about it. I could be more upset by it.

[TheCrow]

Originally Posted by pejc300

Is it just me or do the Chiefs have another freaking difficult schedule again this year? Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals, Patriots, Broncos and Charges x 2, Rams, and the freaking Bills. Absolute gauntlet. No favors were done here.

Also, is there a reason why we play the Bills every single year? I don't know anything about scheduling except for playing your own division twice and then playing one other division.

That's a good question. I love it and hate it at the same time. Love it because it almost always turns out to be one of the best games of the year, and hate it because the Chiefs usually lose. Except in the playoffs of course

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by TheCrow

That's a good question. I love it and hate it at the same time. Love it because it almost always turns out to be one of the best games of the year, and hate it because the Chiefs usually lose. Except in the playoffs of course

Literally this lol.