Mega Millions $476 MILLION !!!

cruiserdaddy7 · 03-28-2012, 02:26 AM

Looks like nobody won and now it could easily hit half a billion by the time the drawing date comes. Anyone find it odd more people play when it gets so high? As if the normal $40 million or so isnt good enough.

chipmaster · 03-28-2012, 07:12 AM

Thank god! The ATM at my beer store was out of money so I couldn't buy any tickets.......

I'm with you on that. I'd take a 250k winner myself......and be perfectly happy

Brad · 03-28-2012, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Anyone find it odd more people play when it gets so high? As if the normal $40 million or so isnt good enough.

I only play when it gets that high. Odds of winning are 1 in 175 million. Current cash jackpot is $341 million before taxes. So, as absurd as it sounds with those high of odds, assuming there isn't more than one winner, your expected return for that $1 bet is more than $1 when the jackpot gets that high. I know I'm not going to win, but it feels like less of an "idiot tax" when the jackpot gets that high.

shadymccoy25 · 03-28-2012, 08:38 AM

I hit the Mega Number and won $2 back. I'm at least content with that.

SethMurphy · 03-28-2012, 08:51 AM

this guy is pumped!!!! I didn't have a chance to buy tickets, Friday night I am going to be RICH!!!!!!!!1

IndySportsCards · 03-28-2012, 09:00 AM

You can't lose if you don't play!

XL5 · 03-28-2012, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Anyone find it odd more people play when it gets so high? As if the normal $40 million or so isnt good enough.

http://www.blowoutcards.com/forums/o...ml#post2440127

HaystaK760 · 03-28-2012, 09:31 AM

whens the next drawing?

sd_navarre · 03-28-2012, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HaystaK760

whens the next drawing?

every Tuesday and Friday

iluvfish2 · 03-28-2012, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndySportsCards

You can't lose if you don't play!

Cant win either

SportCardBuffet · 03-28-2012, 10:22 AM

When I hit the Jackpot on Friday I'm buying everyone a Hobby Case of their choice who has added to my PC, a Hobby box for other iTraders and a pack for some random members

monkeymcgee · 03-28-2012, 10:32 AM

I'm one of the dopes who only plays when it's a huge jackpot. Got my $25 worth this morning.

If I win, I'll definitely do a cool giveaway for the board.

dmogull · 03-28-2012, 10:55 AM

If I win I will do a contest for my babe Ruth mantle foxx teddy quad cut 1/1....mark my words ")

cruiserdaddy7 · 03-28-2012, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monkeymcgee

I'm one of the dopes who only plays when it's a huge jackpot. Got my $25 worth this morning.

If I win, I'll definitely do a cool giveaway for the board.

Im the same way. Ill buy $20 a day until Friday and then Ill drop another $100 spread out over a few different super small gas stations. Rarely do I even hit the mega ball.

dachman · 03-28-2012, 12:52 PM

I'm pretty sure this will be the highest jackpot in US history.

You want to play the lottery more and more when the jackpot gets higher since the expected value of the $1 you spend on a ticket gets greater and greater. The expected value for all the other prizes is constant except for the jackpot.

E(x) = x1*p1 + x2*p2 + .... + xn*pn

To keep things simple I'll just calculate it using the jackpot portion. All the other prizes will increase the expected value.

E(x) = expected value
x = jackpot value (increasing) (500 million)
p = probability (fixed) (1/175,711,536)

So the expected value of the jackpot is $2.85 about and it costs you $1 to play. Can't beat that!

So you dollar goes further! However, the odds you have to split the jackpot increase as well too since more people are playing. That is a whole other thing lol.

TL;DR: For every $1 you spend, your average return is about $3

HaystaK760 · 03-28-2012, 01:01 PM

ive only played once in my life. im defiently gonna get $20 worth. if i win ill hook up my family and defiently do a sick group break for blowout. i hope someone here wins it

thebigcheese44 · 03-28-2012, 01:05 PM

I am definitely playing this time around. Was thinking about starting a thread on this, but you guys beat me to the punch. I have my numbers written down and am headed to the gas station after class.

swerve · 03-28-2012, 01:19 PM

They have already raised it to $500 MILLION!

chipmaster · 03-28-2012, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swerve

They have already raised it to $500 MILLION!

Holy shizz

jlzinck · 03-28-2012, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dachman

I'm pretty sure this will be the highest jackpot in US history.

You want to play the lottery more and more when the jackpot gets higher since the expected value of the $1 you spend on a ticket gets greater and greater. The expected value for all the other prizes is constant except for the jackpot.

E(x) = x1*p1 + x2*p2 + .... + xn*pn

To keep things simple I'll just calculate it using the jackpot portion. All the other prizes will increase the expected value.

E(x) = expected value
x = jackpot value (increasing) (500 million)
p = probability (fixed) (1/175,711,536)

So the expected value of the jackpot is $2.85 about and it costs you $1 to play. Can't beat that!

So you dollar goes further! However, the odds you have to split the jackpot increase as well too since more people are playing. That is a whole other thing lol.

TL;DR: For every $1 you spend, your average return is about $3

+EV talk makes me moist.

XL5 · 03-28-2012, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dachman

I'm pretty sure this will be the highest jackpot in US history.

You want to play the lottery more and more when the jackpot gets higher since the expected value of the $1 you spend on a ticket gets greater and greater. The expected value for all the other prizes is constant except for the jackpot.

E(x) = x1*p1 + x2*p2 + .... + xn*pn

To keep things simple I'll just calculate it using the jackpot portion. All the other prizes will increase the expected value.

E(x) = expected value
x = jackpot value (increasing) (500 million)
p = probability (fixed) (1/175,711,536)

So the expected value of the jackpot is $2.85 about and it costs you $1 to play. Can't beat that!

So you dollar goes further! However, the odds you have to split the jackpot increase as well too since more people are playing. That is a whole other thing lol.

TL;DR: For every $1 you spend, your average return is about $3

The odds are always the same, for all prizes. The jackpot isn't spread amongst all players so "average return" is meaningless.

dachman · 03-28-2012, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XL5

The odds are always the same, for all prizes. The jackpot isn't spread amongst all players so "average return" is meaningless.

The big prize changes so the expected value changes.

Expected value is a THE tool to use to see if a gamble is worth it or not. If you look at any casino game for instance, it will always be below what you spend
(hence why they stay in business) but in this case, it's a no brainier. Pretty much whenever the jackpot * the odds to win is greater than the price you pay for a ticket, you should play.

Anyone else see this excuse for news?

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/03/mega-millions-fever-tips-for-buying-your-lucky-lottery-ticket/

TheHeel · 03-28-2012, 02:50 PM

20 tickets bought....may do another 20-30.

Rinkwraith · 03-28-2012, 02:55 PM

So at 500M minus lumpsum = 359.4 minus taxes = 233.6M final check.

What sports team would you buy/be group buyers with to turn around the team?

XL5 · 03-28-2012, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dachman

The big prize changes so the expected value changes.

Expected value is a THE tool to use to see if a gamble is worth it or not. If you look at any casino game for instance, it will always be below what you spend
(hence why they stay in business) but in this case, it's a no brainier. Pretty much whenever the jackpot * the odds to win is greater than the price you pay for a ticket, you should play.

Your odds are the same. The odds that the entire lotto playing popluation will make money back is higher but unless you expect the winner to share his/her winnings with everyone else, that really doesn't matter.

Unless you intend to buy 175M tickets, it's not a "no brainer." Even if you did, the number of people playing increase the odds that you'd have to share.

Your expected value formula works for a game where someone can afford to play enough over time to approach a meaningful sample size where the expected value pays off. Only if someone already has a few million dollars can they expect to do that with the Mega Millions.

03-28-2012, 02:26 AM	#1
cruiserdaddy7 Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 15,591 Cruiserdaddy7	Mega Millions $476 MILLION !!! Looks like nobody won and now it could easily hit half a billion by the time the drawing date comes. Anyone find it odd more people play when it gets so high? As if the normal $40 million or so isnt good enough.

03-28-2012, 07:12 AM	#2
chipmaster Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: puppies n kittie cats Posts: 10,049	Thank god! The ATM at my beer store was out of money so I couldn't buy any tickets....... I'm with you on that. I'd take a 250k winner myself......and be perfectly happy __________________ rainbows n butterflies

03-28-2012, 08:38 AM	#4
shadymccoy25 Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Delaware Posts: 2,583 shadymccoy90	I hit the Mega Number and won $2 back. I'm at least content with that. __________________ Collecting Go Eagles Go Phils

03-28-2012, 08:51 AM	#5
SethMurphy Member Join Date: May 2010 Location: Centerville/Erie, PA Posts: 19,498 smurf_8 sethmurphy	this guy is pumped!!!! I didn't have a chance to buy tickets, Friday night I am going to be RICH!!!!!!!!1 __________________ Twitter - @seth_murphy8 PCs - Ryan Callahan, Reggie Lewis, Funko Pops (a little), a few other things that catch my eye

03-28-2012, 09:00 AM	#6
IndySportsCards Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Location: EO 13848 Posts: 42,013 braco0 IndySportsCards	You can't lose if you don't play! __________________ Most people would rather be in the majority, than be right.

03-28-2012, 09:31 AM	#8
HaystaK760 Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 2,761 HaystaK760	whens the next drawing? __________________ Fan of the Miami Dolphins and LA Kings, collecting UFC and Funko Pops. looking for 2017 Chrome Frank Mir Black /10.

03-28-2012, 10:22 AM	#11
SportCardBuffet Member Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 11,651 sportscardsbuffet	When I hit the Jackpot on Friday I'm buying everyone a Hobby Case of their choice who has added to my PC, a Hobby box for other iTraders and a pack for some random members __________________ SCB Consignments on eBay - We're actively accepting new consignments, rates as low as 9%, PM for details. Solo a Dios la Gloria

03-28-2012, 10:32 AM	#12
monkeymcgee Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: VA Posts: 10,974	I'm one of the dopes who only plays when it's a huge jackpot. Got my $25 worth this morning. If I win, I'll definitely do a cool giveaway for the board.

03-28-2012, 10:55 AM	#13
dmogull Banned Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: NY/NJ Posts: 4,038 m3equals333	If I win I will do a contest for my babe Ruth mantle foxx teddy quad cut 1/1....mark my words ")

03-28-2012, 12:52 PM	#15
dachman Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: Janesville, WI Posts: 3,698 dachman319	I'm pretty sure this will be the highest jackpot in US history. You want to play the lottery more and more when the jackpot gets higher since the expected value of the $1 you spend on a ticket gets greater and greater. The expected value for all the other prizes is constant except for the jackpot. E(x) = x1p1 + x2p2 + .... + xnpn To keep things simple I'll just calculate it using the jackpot portion. All the other prizes will increase the expected value. E(x) = expected value x = jackpot value (increasing) (500 million) p = probability (fixed) (1/175,711,536) So the expected value of the jackpot is $2.85 about and it costs you $1 to play. Can't beat that! So you dollar goes further! However, the odds you have to split the jackpot increase as well too since more people are playing. That is a whole other thing lol. TL;DR: For every $1 you spend, your average return is about $3* Last edited by dachman; 03-28-2012 at 01:03 PM.

03-28-2012, 01:01 PM	#16
HaystaK760 Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 2,761 HaystaK760	ive only played once in my life. im defiently gonna get $20 worth. if i win ill hook up my family and defiently do a sick group break for blowout. i hope someone here wins it __________________ Fan of the Miami Dolphins and LA Kings, collecting UFC and Funko Pops. looking for 2017 Chrome Frank Mir Black /10.

03-28-2012, 01:05 PM	#17
thebigcheese44 Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Cumberland, MD Posts: 252 thebigcheese4468 thebigcheesecards	I am definitely playing this time around. Was thinking about starting a thread on this, but you guys beat me to the punch. I have my numbers written down and am headed to the gas station after class. __________________ PCs: Bryce Harper, Daniel Vogelbach, Roy Helu, and many other Redskins/Nationals My pitiful Bucket isn't worth your time. I do baseball and football. Don't ask me about basketball cards. They suck.

03-28-2012, 01:19 PM	#18
swerve Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: AUSTIN, TX Posts: 5,086 0023	They have already raised it to $500 MILLION! __________________ checkoutmycards.com/users/0023 Last edited by swerve; 03-28-2012 at 01:23 PM.

03-28-2012, 02:50 PM	#23
TheHeel Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 15,668	20 tickets bought....may do another 20-30. __________________ 48,230, 52,879, 40,400, 4,780 Pending Deals:

03-28-2012, 02:55 PM	#24
Rinkwraith Banned Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: MA Posts: 4,116 bababure	So at 500M minus lumpsum = 359.4 minus taxes = 233.6M final check. What sports team would you buy/be group buyers with to turn around the team?