Fernando Tatis Jr

[BAHoopla]

Originally Posted by redscollector24

Appreciate the advice, went back in and grabbed the rest. Sorry kids! I’ll have to do my first Jewcer or get the PSA membership like someone just suggested.


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How do you do a Jewcer psa submit?

[clamberto]

Originally Posted by redscollector24

Appreciate the advice, went back in and grabbed the rest. Sorry kids! I’ll have to do my first Jewcer or get the PSA membership like someone just suggested.


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Do yourself a favor, I'm assuming you got them at Target retail. Keep your receipt. Open one set, check the condition of each major card painstakingly well. If a corner is even slightly dinged, take your Loss and return the other UNOPENED sets.

The set you opened is not returnable, that's a dirtbag move to try to return it. You want to make sure that your sets haven't been beat up, and one is usually all it takes to know if the remaining five are crap. Also, don't overextend financially ever. We all have different budgets. Be well.

[clamberto]

Originally Posted by BAHoopla

How do you do a Jewcer psa submit?

Go to his website pcsportscards and do some reading. I can't vouch for him as I submit on my own direct but his reputation on the board is beyond reproach.

[yanksfan1]

Originally Posted by toade

Wouldn't PSA 10 cover like five whole sets??

Aren't the factory set versions selling for less, different image on card?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/2019-Topps-...y&LH_Auction=1

[redscollector24]

Originally Posted by yanksfan1

Aren't the factory set versions selling for less, different image on card?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/2019-Topps-...y&LH_Auction=1

You get both, the horizontal shoulder up version and vertical variation with the slide. Each factory set comes with a pack of 5 rookie variations along with the 700 card set of series 1 and 2.


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[TaylorLH]

Well my first monster arrived today. Love it. And the flaw is so minor its 100% a re-grade. Still cant believe i got this for the price of 2 base Chrome/S2 410 PSA 10s

[Cards and 401K]

beauty!

[redsteel]

Could use some guidance here. Picked up a white jersey PSA 10 when they were dirt cheap, but the case cracked during delivery. The seller sent me a replacement, but what would you do with this one: try to get it out, sell it mentioning the case damage? Card wiggles a bit in there.






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[ALBASKETBALL]

Originally Posted by redsteel

Could use some guidance here. Picked up a white jersey PSA 10 when they were dirt cheap, but the case cracked during delivery. The seller sent me a replacement, but what would you do with this one: try to get it out, sell it mentioning the case damage? Card wiggles a bit in there.

Send to PSA for a re-slab.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by clamberto

Crack and grade depending on condition. If the sets were in a cement mixer all bets are off, but open one take a look at the key cards Tatis, Alonso, Jimenez, FatBoi NoBat (Vlad). From the bunch of factory sets that I opened, 2/3's of cards are perfect (corners, surface, centering, edges) and 1/3 had one of the four categories a bit off.

Take the perfect Tatis' send them Jewcer for the $20 level (standard?) and wait. Sell one or two and the rest are paid for with a bit of money in your pocket.

There are three main fallacies on these boards in my opinion:

1. People get scared of losing money so they only buy two sets instead of every god dang one. When a deal pops up you take it all, every single time.

2. People take profits WAY too fast, the saying "you can never go broke taking a profit" is actually wrong. It's idiotic thinking, however I'm more than happy to profit from those who think that way. If you miss the 10X-50X profits (Trout, Tatis, Giannis, etc.) and instead take a double on those names and sell to "never go broke taking a profit" your margin of error shrinks on future purchases. Those monster profits free you up to absorb the failures/losses of other players in search of the next 10 to 50 bagger. LET YOUR WINNERS RUN! Leg out of positions 5-10% at a time. I have 88 PSA 10 Tatis 410's left from my factory set breaks last winter, I've sold 10 this week, I'll probably sell 5 each of the next few weeks until I'm down to about 25 cards left. Those go into the gun safe for the kiddos and their kids.

3. Never, Never commit capital to cards that you can't afford to lose entirely. Scared money gets blown out every single time at the poker room, in the stock market, in this hobby. Scared money happens when people can't afford to take it to 0.

Because it's a Tatis thread, I'll share something Tatis related shortly. Ok, the first data image is where each Tatis strikeout happened in the zone last year. Fastballs (red) up and Sliders (yellow) off.



Great players make meaningful adjustments quickly: In 2020 the strikeouts are all occurring IN THE ZONE, he's getting beat (it happens cause MLB pitching is really freaking good) BUT he's not beating himself. He's spitting on sliders off the plate. See below:



Take this level of thinking to every young 4/5 tool 20 year old prospect to determine who you sell and who you keep. Let your winners run. I sold Alonso cause he's a single faceted player, I let Tatis ride cause I saw his discipline each week trending from the first image to the second image.

Lou Bob right now is a first image hitter, if he migrates to a more disciplined second image hitter I'll hold him, if not I'll sell. Just a few random thoughts.

Great advice! Post of the day.

[clamberto]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Great advice! Post of the day.

Thank you very much, I've been on the sidelines lurking the forum for years. The amount of ignorance in this hobby is astounding to me given the amounts of money changing hands. I'd like to help elevate the conversation a bit.

I posted in a thread earlier about calculating the EV of different factory sets to determine which has the most "value" and clearly hit a nerve with the neanderthal Simpsons comic book guy types in the forum...lol

I keep forgetting that math and science are bad.

[jasonm2121]

Did not have that chart but was what I felt about Alonso. Never bought one card, always seemed one dimensional to me.

[YourAvgSutton]

Big at bat for Tatis here... Padres down 2. Top of the 8th, man on first, 0 outs.

Update: Double play... darn. Was hoping for some heroics!

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

Did not have that chart but was what I felt about Alonso. Never bought one card, always seemed one dimensional to me.

thats not nice

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

thats not nice

Accurate?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

Accurate?

No Sir! no harm in collecting RCs!

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by clamberto

Thank you very much, I've been on the sidelines lurking the forum for years. The amount of ignorance in this hobby is astounding to me given the amounts of money changing hands. I'd like to help elevate the conversation a bit.

I posted in a thread earlier about calculating the EV of different factory sets to determine which has the most "value" and clearly hit a nerve with the neanderthal Simpsons comic book guy types in the forum...lol

I keep forgetting that math and science are bad.

Well my job revolves around “math” so I’m fluent lol. Anybody you’ve got your eye on right now.,

[SupermanBrandon]

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[clamberto]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Well my job revolves around “math” so I’m fluent lol. Anybody you’ve got your eye on right now.,

Bought some Yordan stuff today (6-7 2020 Chrome Autos under $100 each). He's all bat no D, but so is Soto.

I figure Yordan is a Heads I win, Tails I break even type of situation for the rest of the short season. If he hits .400 with a jack per 10 AB's his cards will triple (FOMO) and I'll sell. If he hits .250 with a jack per 25 AB's I can sell them in a month and roughly break even.

Long term, I'd be surprised if he was anything special.

Lou Bob is rough to figure out right now, I'm in for 4 hobby cases of factory sets for my entry to him. Something about paying $30 for a dinged up base or $40 for a raw chrome kind of sucks. Love his talent, love his swing, hate his plate discipline. However, as I've posted in his thread this is to be expected. Check out Tatis first 50 AB's in his career, he sucked. Trout sucked during his Sept call up, Judge hit like .170 during his Sept call up. First couple hundred AB's in the bigs are tough as hell.

Lux must really be f'ed up...hearing he got the yips.

Bichette projects as a Chase Utley type of guy...50 hit, 40 power. Who cares from a hobby perspective imo. Does anyone care about a .320, 20 HR 45 2B's guy on the fourth best team in the AL East?

Which brings me back to Tatis, ++ Hit, ++ Power, ++ Speed, ++ Arm, ++Legacy, he's a good interview, fans love him, very marketable. He's like Acuna if Acuna quit the SHI* and just played the game hard.

Can anyone name a better guy to chase over the next 10 years? I can't. It's a two horse race between him and Acuna.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by clamberto

There are three main fallacies on these boards in my opinion:

1. People get scared of losing money so they only buy two sets instead of every god dang one. When a deal pops up you take it all, every single time.

Some people would call that budgeting or lessening a risk. It's easy to say with the way the market is right now though.

Originally Posted by clamberto

2. People take profits WAY too fast, the saying "you can never go broke taking a profit" is actually wrong. It's idiotic thinking, however I'm more than happy to profit from those who think that way. If you miss the 10X-50X profits (Trout, Tatis, Giannis, etc.) and instead take a double on those names and sell to "never go broke taking a profit" your margin of error shrinks on future purchases. Those monster profits free you up to absorb the failures/losses of other players in search of the next 10 to 50 bagger. LET YOUR WINNERS RUN! Leg out of positions 5-10% at a time. I have 88 PSA 10 Tatis 410's left from my factory set breaks last winter, I've sold 10 this week, I'll probably sell 5 each of the next few weeks until I'm down to about 25 cards left. Those go into the gun safe for the kiddos and their kids.

Seems like a hasty generalization, there are a multitude of reasons people sell at certain points in time. For every Trout, Giannis and maybe Tatis, there are 1000 Jerome Walton's,Yasiel Puigs and Harold Miner's. People sell when they feel comfortable selling. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Not everyone is in it for the money but it's nice to make a little something to help build the collection. That doesn't make them idiots. Finally, you say let the "winner's run" but also shared you've sold the last week and plan to sell more in the near future,seems illogical.

Originally Posted by clamberto

3. Never, Never commit capital to cards that you can't afford to lose entirely. Scared money gets blown out every single time at the poker room, in the stock market, in this hobby. Scared money happens when people can't afford to take it to 0.

Is this specific to everyone? Seems like a statement for for the novice collector or gambler that's in the hobby to strictly flip. In poker, this is why I'll call a 3-bet pre-flop with J-10 suited. I'm waiting for the right opportunity to crack Aces and Kings.


Nice hit diagram though. The kid is a beast and has the chance for greatness.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by clamberto

Bought some Yordan stuff today (6-7 2020 Chrome Autos under $100 each). He's all bat no D, but so is Soto.

I figure Yordan is a Heads I win, Tails I break even type of situation for the rest of the short season. If he hits .400 with a jack per 10 AB's his cards will triple (FOMO) and I'll sell. If he hits .250 with a jack per 25 AB's I can sell them in a month and roughly break even.

Long term, I'd be surprised if he was anything special.

Lou Bob is rough to figure out right now, I'm in for 4 hobby cases of factory sets for my entry to him. Something about paying $30 for a dinged up base or $40 for a raw chrome kind of sucks. Love his talent, love his swing, hate his plate discipline. However, as I've posted in his thread this is to be expected. Check out Tatis first 50 AB's in his career, he sucked. Trout sucked during his Sept call up, Judge hit like .170 during his Sept call up. First couple hundred AB's in the bigs are tough as hell.

Lux must really be f'ed up...hearing he got the yips.

Bichette projects as a Chase Utley type of guy...50 hit, 40 power. Who cares from a hobby perspective imo. Does anyone care about a .320, 20 HR 45 2B's guy on the fourth best team in the AL East?

Which brings me back to Tatis, ++ Hit, ++ Power, ++ Speed, ++ Arm, ++Legacy, he's a good interview, fans love him, very marketable. He's like Acuna if Acuna quit the SHI* and just played the game hard.

Can anyone name a better guy to chase over the next 10 years? I can't.

Yeah Tatis seems like the guy to load up on right now, prices likely aren’t going down anytime soon.

I picked up a few lux prism and refractors the last few days, would like to see him get some AB’s before the season is over, the minor league numbers he put up were ridiculous. I guess there’s a chance he joins the roster and ends up getting playoff ab’s, I guess that’s the angle I’m playing lol.

I’m looking at the next crop of guys at this point who profile as hobby favorites. multiple tools, run, hit, throw, play a premium position etc. basically describing Tatis lol. Wander seems like can’t miss, then looking at Kelenic, Carlson, J Rod (maybe not 5 tool but the bat is strong) then have a flier on Nolan Gorman.

I can’t decide if baseball is just underpriced and is in the process of closing the gap with basketball.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Yeah Tatis seems like the guy to load up on right now, prices likely aren’t going down anytime soon.

I picked up a few lux prism and refractors the last few days, would like to see him get some AB’s before the season is over, the minor league numbers he put up were ridiculous. I guess there’s a chance he joins the roster and ends up getting playoff ab’s, I guess that’s the angle I’m playing lol.

I’m looking at the next crop of guys at this point who profile as hobby favorites. multiple tools, run, hit, throw, play a premium position etc. basically describing Tatis lol. Wander seems like can’t miss, then looking at Kelenic, Carlson, J Rod (maybe not 5 tool but the bat is strong) then have a flier on Nolan Gorman.

I can’t decide if baseball is just underpriced and is in the process of closing the gap with basketball.

Bolded #1: December was. Now? Eh, its sky high right now (not saying it cant go up more)

Bolded #2: No chance, literally ever

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Bolded #1: December was. Now? Eh, its sky high right now (not saying it cant go up more)

Bolded #2: No chance, literally ever

Lol, yes December was better than now. If you want to hold Tatis cards, now is still the time, he’s not going lower. Agreed most of the run up happened, and was finished off in the last week. If you believe he’s an mvp type there’s still room.

Baseball will never be basketball, but the gap may close as people that buy $80 MPJ base Prizm as a gamble may see you can get legit studs for that price in baseball.

[SupermanBrandon]

Baseball will never close the gap on basketball!


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[BRob1]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Baseball will never close the gap on basketball!


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Thanks for your insightful post! Wouldn’t be a discussion without that enlightening insight.