Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[Brazenways]

Two part post.

Part 1-Toronto Sports Expo

Was there all day Friday and am in the fence on where I see things trending. I would say 3/4 of the dealers have not adjusted to the downward market and kept sticker prices from this time last year. The other 1/4 are adapting and dealing both ways. The old school expo dealers had the biggest booths but the smallest crowds. From conversation, it looks like quite a bit of inventory was moved/picked through on Thursday amongst the VIP and dealer network.

Wax prices are starting to ease especially for modern hockey which there was plenty of. Might be a precursor for decent Black Friday sales from some of the larger Canadian shops.

Influencer circle jerk is alive and well but also looks to be tapering off somewhat.

~

Part 2-breaking

Used to despise breaking but after seeing how much it irks some of you, might start joining some to keep the oarty going.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I think they mean they sold to someone who makes "Mystery Packs." So they sold them $14K in slabs so they could charge $50K selling them to other people.

Correct

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Correct

Time to cut out the middleman and make your own mystery packs. You gave that buyer $30K.

[zakcollects]

Originally Posted by Brazenways

Part 2-breaking

Used to despise breaking but after seeing how much it irks some of you, might start joining some to keep the oarty going.

I find it a great way to get exposure to a product without going all in. Wanna know what Chrome Update is like? Buy a mid-tier spot and watch the break. Maybe you get something good, no different gambling odds than buying a box.

And then you can note down all the cards that are pulled that you get a little FOMO over, and buy them as affordable singles. Win-win.

[f2tornado]

Drove to Minneapolis area early Saturday morning. There were 5 card shows in the area over the weekend, 4 on Sat and two on Sun. The two shows I hit on Saturday (Brooklyn Center and Golden Valley) were sold out and had no shortage of customers. It was rare to have even two shows on same weekend in that area during the early 90s boom. Lots of kids running around trying to make a buck. Good for them even if they're mildly annoying jumping in the row of the same box I'm already looking at. They shall learn the show etiquette eventually. The local Hmong population contributed to quite a few dealers and it was nice to see some new faces behind the tables. Bargain boxes were plenty but it took some digging to find stuff and I ended up with more than usual. I might have to travel to out of town shows more often.

[bjw]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

The 1099-K drama in 2024 will be worth the price of admission.

I honestly think this will backfire on the govt. $600 threshold for 1099K is absolutely absurd. I hope the IRS has fun with sifting through the returns of 18 million eBay sellers, many of which use eBay as a permanent online yardsale, selling low dollar items like DVDs and books, of which have no record of cost basis from ten years ago but almost undoubtedly selling at a loss.

They should shift the 1099 requirement to $10K. If you get taxed at an upper middle class level and did $10K in sales with zero cost basis that is $1500 in capital gains. Anyone doing business at this level or above deserves a tax bill. Below that level I think it places an unreasonable reporting burden on both the individual and the agents responsible for sorting out this mess.

[theshowandme]

Individual IRS agents do not review random Joe’s tax return

It’s 2023, not 1993

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by bjw

I honestly think this will backfire on the govt. $600 threshold for 1099K is absolutely absurd. I hope the IRS has fun with sifting through the returns of 18 million eBay sellers, many of which use eBay as a permanent online yardsale, selling low dollar items like DVDs and books, of which have no record of cost basis from ten years ago but almost undoubtedly selling at a loss.

They should shift the 1099 requirement to $10K. If you get taxed at an upper middle class level and did $10K in sales with zero cost basis that is $1500 in capital gains. Anyone doing business at this level or above deserves a tax bill. Below that level I think it places an unreasonable reporting burden on both the individual and the agents responsible for sorting out this mess.

From strictly a policy perspective the threshold is fantastic. Anything to discourage a ‘flipping economy’ and gambling is best for the country especially given how risky flipping is and with so many real jobs going unfilled.

Besides, it seems like there’s the potential for the government to at least bepreak even open this financially or maybe a little ahead, we’ll see the numbers as time goes on.

[Brady7799]

i also attended the Toronto Sports Card Expo and went on Friday only. i've been going to the bi-annual show since 2016 and this is the first time that i'm considering passing on the next show. in fact, maybe i'll just stick to spring shows since the fall is all about the other 3 major sports even up here. i'm also curious about the vip/dealer night on Thursdays. something to consider for next time while the city goes into frozen mode.

the show is bigger than ever. PSA showed up, Upper Deck was captivating the crowd along with eBay. Upper Deck had a crowd clogging the area for what looked like a chance for a free pack while making all kinds of noise. eBay cranked music with staff that probably couldn't tell you the difference between a baseball card and a football card. it's still hockey that rules the land here but basketball and football have made steady gains over the years. even pokemon and fringe stuff like F1 were at tables.

i noticed more girlfriends "sharing" the passion with their boys/men. they looked pretty bored. pay back for making their guys sit through the Kardashians with them, i guess. noticed some moms taking their kids around which i respect! they seemed way more cool with being there vs the girlfriends. more kids overall, some with those bulky cases that ya'll hate so much. in general, you can tell who the collectors were vs the investors. collectors wore stuff that looked like they came out of a 1990s capsule and sure enough were asking tables for very specific cards or players. the ones rocking OVO gear were trying to buy cards announcing "they need to have room on it" and i applaud the couple dealers i was in front of that didn't tell them to "F OFF". plenty of both types and my favourite guys were the collectors with hand written checklists of cards they needed. that's old school to the fullest. even with the newer demographics showing up, everyone up here behaved like respectable people. plenty of "excuse me" and "sorry" when squeezing into a side area where bargain bins were. one older guy was pretty much alongside me at the start for a few rows of tables as we were both going into the same bins. we respected each other's space and i even started pulling out guys he was looking for after i asked him about it. he couldn't help me because prospecting here is still a different level from the majority but it was cool to share the space with a fellow baseball hobbyist. i didn't notice a single offensive odour coming from human bodies. if anything about smell, it was the pizza slices tempting me and the perennial sausage vendor was once again daring me to ignore her and walk away from which i barely did.

i feel like compared to 2016 and through the years, the power has gone from the buyer to the dealer. back then, bins were full of great stuff, and you can find short prints that the cards dealer's eyes missed. now, it's all paper base and the bins are almost devoid of anything worth getting excited about. dealers got smarter! wax prices followed the same pattern. back then, you could haggle and walk away with a decent deal but as the hobby blew up thanks to the pandemic it seems like dealers haven't got the memo as the prices have remained crazy. the best deals on wax i was interested in basically saved you the sales tax which is great but not as good as before when you actually got a deal. no way i'm ripping a box of Update for $130 cad to end up with a pile of overproduced base.

from a baseball card perspective, singles sucked. the displays were overpriced slabs to the point there was no use to even try to haggle. vintage is always great to look at but it really screams "show and tell" vs make me an offer. the bins were all stale product as i barely (stressing BARELY) saw any '23 Bowman Chrome. one dealer had the exact same one row box of base chromes (i know because i looked through it in the spring) picked through with a $3 asking price when it was $2 the last time. Bowman specifically was really down to a few tables that i can count with one hand. i guess that's a positive because i can get through the entire floor in one day and not worry about going back the rest of the weekend.

a big part of why a show is great is being around fellow hobbyists. i'm not on a first name basis with the dealers and frankly, for baseball there aren't many left that have stuck around for as long as i've been attending. two of my fav Bowman guys have been missing for a number of shows now. i feel like i can take my money and throw it into my COMC account and have much better results.

the hobby is very much alive north of the border. lots of money changing hands. loads of traffic. PSA and BGS were rammed. the place was maybe the most full i've ever seen by the time i was ready to leave. really wish ultra modern baseball, specifically Bowman, continued to gain steam up here. that's my only real gripe.

[bjw]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

From strictly a policy perspective the threshold is fantastic. Anything to discourage a ‘flipping economy’ and gambling is best for the country especially given how risky flipping is and with so many real jobs going unfilled.

Besides, it seems like there’s the potential for the government to at least bepreak even open this financially or maybe a little ahead, we’ll see the numbers as time goes on.

I'm sure you're right. I have no doubt it will be profitable for the government but I think it will be confusing for individuals selling items below what they paid retail. Not everyone on eBay is on there to flip baseball cards. I sell a lot of old miscellaneous antiques and collectibles that I have no receipts for.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Individual IRS agents do not review random Joe’s tax return

It’s 2023, not 1993

They just send you a bill on the taxes the computers generate. That is the 2023 audit system. People will get a bill if they don't attach their 1099-K form and will either have to pay that money or amend their tax return to include the 1099-K form. Both typically will have a penalty attached to them.

If you try to account for your 1099-K form in any somewhat reasonable way, chances are you will never hear from the IRS. They don't want to see your spreadsheets of selling five thousand $3 cards from eBay.

[bjw]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

They just send you a bill on the taxes the computers generate. That is the 2023 audit system. People will get a bill if they don't attach their 1099-K form and will either have to pay that money or amend their tax return to include the 1099-K form. Both typically will have a penalty attached to them.

If you try to account for your 1099-K form in any somewhat reasonable way, chances are you will never hear from the IRS. They don't want to see your spreadsheets of selling five thousand $3 cards from eBay.

I believe you are correct and this is typically the way these things play out in my experience. If the IRS has nothing from your end they always assume $0 cost basis. It’s on you to prove otherwise. But all things considered they are usually reasonable and people trying to be honest and doing sufficient due diligence will get treated fairly.

[theshowandme]

I saw a YouTuber say that he’s great because he goes to shows, and that anyone who hasn’t been to a show in the last 6 months is not active enough

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I saw a YouTuber say that he’s great because he goes to shows, and that anyone who hasn’t been to a show in the last 6 months is not active enough

There are a lot of guys on this forum that can't get to any good shows because they are not in driving distance to any of them. All of the best shows in the country are in the East and the Midwest and some people are just too far away.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I saw a YouTuber say that he’s great because he goes to shows, and that anyone who hasn’t been to a show in the last 6 months is not active enough

Isn’t that what you say? Were you the YouTuber?

[hammerva]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I saw a YouTuber say that he’s great because he goes to shows, and that anyone who hasn’t been to a show in the last 6 months is not active enough

I understand why influencers and dealers would say that but for a lot of people Ebay and COMC is so convenient for collectors who aren't in the top tier of what they collect. Sure if you are looking for 3 to 4 figure cards then maybe a show is the better way to go. For example why should I go to shows and dig through 500 random as hell $1 - $10 boxes that may not have what I am looking for when I can find it online for less than 10 minutes.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by solt0131

There are a lot of guys on this forum that can't get to any good shows because they are not in driving distance to any of them. All of the best shows in the country are in the East and the Midwest and some people are just too far away.

Exactly, it is not the norm for the average collector to travel 3+ hours, get a hotel, etc. to get to a show. If its not within a 90 minute drive, most people are not attending.

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Isn’t that what you say? Were you the YouTuber?

If I am ever this ridiculous, please tell me. I joke about poors, but they are simply jokes and should be taken in jest

[discodanman45]

I haven't been to a card show in my life and may never go. I think it would upset me more than anything else with all the stupid stuff I see in the hobby right now. Breakers, people recording for YouTube, people yelling let's go, and I also hate negotiating for cards. I am very content with my collecting style with eBay, COMC, Beckett Marketplace, and all of these vaulted marketplaces.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I saw a YouTuber say that he’s great because he goes to shows, and that anyone who hasn’t been to a show in the last 6 months is not active enough

If you can economically get to shows then great. They are a great way to get a pulse on what's hot and what's not. They are also at times great for loading up on bargains if you have a good guide in your head. It's simply not possible to look up comps on everything you see.

I drove the 400 some odd miles to the Twin Cities burned about $150 in gas round trip. The IRS business milage rate will cover that but still money burned before buying anything. That plus six hours each way.

[Bunny Hop]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I haven't been to a card show in my life and may never go. I think it would upset me more than anything else with all the stupid stuff I see in the hobby right now. Breakers, people recording for YouTube, people yelling let's go, and I also hate negotiating for cards. I am very content with my collecting style with eBay, COMC, Beckett Marketplace, and all of these vaulted marketplaces.

Depending on the show you might find it very grounding. It can be very lowkey, very low tech, and just a pleasant way to spend a couple of hours and a couple of bucks.

EDITED to add that you might have some fun conversations _especially_ if you collect someone like Rik Smits.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I haven't been to a card show in my life and may never go. I think it would upset me more than anything else with all the stupid stuff I see in the hobby right now. Breakers, people recording for YouTube, people yelling let's go, and I also hate negotiating for cards. I am very content with my collecting style with eBay, COMC, Beckett Marketplace, and all of these vaulted marketplaces.

lol Unless you are hanging around the breaker pavilion at the National, those things don't exist at local shows. Other than negotiating, which you don't have to do if you don't want to. You are free to pay sticker price (and there are plenty of good deals at sticker price at card shows to be had). I think you have a very skewed vision of what a card show is like.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

lol Unless you are hanging around the breaker pavilion at the National, those things don't exist at local shows. Other than negotiating, which you don't have to do if you don't want to. You are free to pay sticker price (and there are plenty of good deals at sticker price at card shows to be had). I think you have a very skewed vision of what a card show is like.

My post was more about the bigger shows. Could see how the smaller shows could be different. However, the smaller local shows are probably more closely related to the local card shops I go to. Mostly ultra-modern stuff and very limited stock or expertise in vintage. I buy stuff for my nephews at those card shops, but don't really enjoy going in there. If anyone knows any central California shows that have a decent vintage selection, I would be willing to go.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

My post was more about the bigger shows. Could see how the smaller shows could be different. However, the smaller local shows are probably more closely related to the local card shops I go to. Mostly ultra-modern stuff and very limited stock or expertise in vintage. I buy stuff for my nephews at those card shops, but don't really enjoy going in there. If anyone knows any central California shows that have a decent vintage selection, I would be willing to go.

I've been to lots of big shows, including the National. I didn't go near the breaker pavilion at the national. I can say I've never heard a person yell "Let's go" or seen any breaking. I have seen the occasional person filming a video, but at bigger shows that isn't hard to avoid at all. It's not like it's rampant and all that invasive. Like I said, it appears you have a very inaccurate view of most card shows, even the big ones.

And just for your information, since it appears you are interested in vintage and vintage dealers. You would be shocked at the amount of vintage dealers at card shows. Most shows I go to (granted, I'm in the midwest with lots of good shows), there is a good mix (maybe 50/50) vintage to modern, and lots of dealers who specialize in vintage who have tons of knowledge and experience. Then there are some shows geared almost entirely to vintage (e.g. Strongsville, OH) where you will meet people who you could talk to for hours about vintage, and even learn some things you didn't know, no matter how experienced you are in vintage.

It's definitely worth a shot to find a good show and go some time.

[discodanman45]

Here in California, the vintage seems much weaker than the East Coast or the middle of the country. When I was younger in NY, card shops were much more vintage based in the 90's than any of the shops here.

In California, many people film themselves and thinks they are a celebrity. My local gym is a nightmare in a small town in California. Tripods set up everywhere filming themselves.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Here in California, the vintage seems much weaker than the East Coast or the middle of the country. When I was younger in NY, card shops were much more vintage based in the 90's than any of the shops here.

In California, many people film themselves and thinks they are a celebrity. My local gym is a nightmare in a small town in California. Tripods set up everywhere filming themselves.

Sounds miserable. There's always room for you here in fly-over country.