Yes, this is a bubble. No, it's not the 90s again

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

This claim is made at least one out of every three years… without fail.

New material and angles are needed.

I’ve watched a lot of baseball man. I’m not just talking hobby hype, this is different.

There’s a big difference between prospects in the minors making noise and faltering in the bigs and multiple young twenty-somethings already in the upper echelon of MLB players.

I’m not saying they all pan out. There’s a lot that can happen over the course of a career, but it’s just different.


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[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

I’ve watched a lot of baseball man. I’m not just talking hobby hype, this is different.

There’s a big difference between prospects in the minors making noise and faltering in the bigs and multiple young twenty-somethings already in the upper echelon of MLB players.

I’m not saying they all pan out. There’s a lot that can happen over the course of a career, but it’s just different.

Sure it is…I appreciate your enthusiasm

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Sure it is…I appreciate your enthusiasm

Hey, I could be wrong. Nothing is guaranteed, especially not in baseball. Neither of us have the crystal ball so to speak, so it’s all just speculation.

I will say that it’s hard to be pessimistic though watching this group of young studs. There’s reason to be enthusiastic.


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[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Hey, I could be wrong. Nothing is guaranteed, especially not in baseball. Neither of us have the crystal ball so to speak, so it’s all just speculation.

I will say that it’s hard to be pessimistic though watching this group of young studs. There’s reason to be enthusiastic.


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Mookie Betts 2nd in MVP at age 23 in 2016
Alex Bregman world champ at 23 in 2017
Kris Bryant MVP and champ at 24 in 2016
Mike Trout MVP at 24 in 2016
Manny Macho 5th in MVP at 23 in 2016
Bryce Harper MVP at 22 in 2015
Francisco Lindor 5th in MVP at 23 in 2017
Noah Syndergaard 8th in Cy Young at 23 in 2016

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Mookie Betts 2nd in MVP at age 23 in 2016
Alex Bregman world champ at 23 in 2017
Kris Bryant MVP and champ at 24 in 2016
Mike Trout MVP at 24 in 2016
Manny Macho 5th in MVP at 23 in 2016
Bryce Harper MVP at 22 in 2015
Francisco Lindor 5th in MVP at 23 in 2017
Noah Syndergaard 8th in Cy Young at 23 in 2016

This does nothing to dissuade my optimism.

Even though, I have more faith in this latest “crop” of youngsters, they don’t all have to pan out. This is why I said I would diversify and one or two will probably fall victim to decreased performance and/or injuries. It’s baseball, so it’s going to happen.

In the above player list, you are looking at at least two HOFers. Possibly more if a couple can stay healthy and maintain decent cumulative stats.


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[Hoopscardz83]

Baseball collectors are not having product botted. The 1st rollout of Bowman was. Then Target had a 2nd, then a 3rd, and a 4th. Once the bots saw the 100k plus stocks more than once online it was over. Basketball seems to have the least amount of production these days.

Select and chronicles is reaching Bowman levels. Just mass produce and make hits tougher to get.

[k13]

Originally Posted by notoriousrmb

Exactly, there is a market for all products.

If no one bought Archives, it would still be on shelves, which it isn't.

Not sure why people always have to complain about what others enjoy.

Still on the shelves at every Walmart because not worth flipping.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by BaseballKing

I need to do some revising. The overall sportscard market may be soft but the baseball market is very resilient at the moment, if not downright strong in some parts.

Baseball is still in season. Let's revisit in November.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

This claim is made at least one out of every three years… without fail.

New material and angles are needed.

We are in a golden era for young position talent right now. Where I differ with the above poster is it started in 2012 with Trout/Harper/Machado and has continued for nearly a decade. IMO this era is better than the deluge of talent that came in from the mid 80s to the mid 90s, which was the last Golden Era.

If you don't believe me, look at the top prospect lists from the late 90s and 00s. That era pretty much sucked.

I'm thinking the Rise of Wander may be the beginning of the end for this run. I don't see a clear cut #1 overall right now. Outside of The Martian (who hasn't even played a game yet!) I don't see anybody with even a remote shot at getting to a Wander/Vlad/Acuna level of prospect heights. Part of that might be the pandemic wiping out the 2020 minor league season so nobody was able to build on a breakout from last year.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by Stech36

I bought 10 cases at $450-$600........... busted them all.

Still made a ton, but not as much as if they were sitting in my closet right now. Just shows how underpriced the market was back then.

2018 series 2 was even better. Between the Acuna, Torres, Master Set, and MLB the Show card, I was profitable before hitting a single autograph or parallel.

Topps really needs to go back to the master set/hobby case.

What consists of a master set? Is it all base and all insert sets?

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

What consists of a master set? Is it all base and all insert sets?

Yes


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[Stech36]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Baseball is still in season. Let's revisit in November.

Of course it will be down in November, like it is every year. Including 2020.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Baseball is still in season. Let's revisit in November.

Of course it will be down in November, like it is every year. Including 2020.

Baseball never reached the dizzying highs that basketball did. There were no 9th year Trout base PSA 10’s going for $500-$600

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

We are in a golden era for young position talent right now. Where I differ with the above poster is it started in 2012 with Trout/Harper/Machado and has continued for nearly a decade. IMO this era is better than the deluge of talent that came in from the mid 80s to the mid 90s, which was the last Golden Era.

If you don't believe me, look at the top prospect lists from the late 90s and 00s. That era pretty much sucked.

I'm thinking the Rise of Wander may be the beginning of the end for this run. I don't see a clear cut #1 overall right now. Outside of The Martian (who hasn't even played a game yet!) I don't see anybody with even a remote shot at getting to a Wander/Vlad/Acuna level of prospect heights. Part of that might be the pandemic wiping out the 2020 minor league season so nobody was able to build on a breakout from last year.

Doesn’t matter, prospectors and flippers still claimed a new “golden era” had arrived at least once in every three years. Travis Lee, Jose Cruz Jr, Kerry Wood, Ruck Ankiel, Josh Hamilton, etc., etc., etc., it never ends because it’s not profitable to say otherwise.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Doesn’t matter, prospectors and flippers still claimed a new “golden era” had arrived at least once in every three years. Travis Lee, Jose Cruz Jr, Kerry Wood, Ruck Ankiel, Josh Hamilton, etc., etc., etc., it never ends because it’s not profitable to say otherwise.

People can hype anyone or anything. I agree that’s not going change.

However, the fundamental difference with this list and the players being discussed in today’s possible golden age, is that we are looking at players in their early 20’s who have actually demonstrated excellence in the bigs vs people who were SUPPOSED to demonstrate excellence in the bigs.

Hamilton didn’t crack the bigs for years due to personal issues. Neither Travis Lee or Jose Cruz had starts worth writing home about. Wood was phenomenal before injuries (still went on to have a couple more great years) and Ankiel was good pre yips, but if anyone thinks it’s a great idea to put in all their chips on a pitching prospect, I don’t know what to tell you.


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by Stech36

Of course it will be down in November, like it is every year. Including 2020.

Baseball never reached the dizzying highs that basketball did. There were no 9th year Trout base PSA 10’s going for $500-$600

In 2018 Trout true RC psa 10s were in that range… crazy how out of whack other sports got (I don’t think baseball was under valued)


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[Stech36]

Originally Posted by pewe

In 2018 Trout true RC psa 10s were in that range… crazy how out of whack other sports got (I don’t think baseball was under valued)


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Certain things were. Pujols rookies for example

But yeah, the market seemed about right...

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

People can hype anyone or anything. I agree that’s not going change.

However, the fundamental difference with this list and the players being discussed in today’s possible golden age, is that we are looking at players in their early 20’s who have actually demonstrated excellence in the bigs vs people who were SUPPOSED to demonstrate excellence in the bigs.

Hamilton didn’t crack the bigs for years due to personal issues. Neither Travis Lee or Jose Cruz had starts worth writing home about. Wood was phenomenal before injuries (still went on to have a couple more great years) and Ankiel was good pre yips, but if anyone thinks it’s a great idea to put in all their chips on a pitching prospect, I don’t know what to tell you.

Which is why I think this post of yours is no different

I can add another half dozen or so names from the late ‘90s-early ‘00s. - but so could other people.

[pryantexas]

Originally Posted by Gradek

1) All your justifications are why I said second half of 21 for the crash start and are precisely the reasons why the crash will happen. Read my post again, in order for prices to even just hold current levels, you would need an equal amount of money to come into the hobby, which isn’t going to happen post COVID.

2) crashes don’t happen quickly, really? The quicker a bubble builds, the quicker it will end.

(Gradek's post was from January 2021)

Sorry, new to the thread, I apologize if this has already been reposted a million times

I am looking forward to more predictions from Nostradamus aka Gradek. Holy smokes. Very few were willing to go out on this limb

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Which is why I think this post of yours is no different

I’m pointing to the FACT that today’s young stars have actual stats demonstrating that they aren’t just hype and explaining why what we are looking at right now is very different than what you just described.

It’s not hype when it’s reality. Hyping is telling everyone how great Kelenic, Adell, etc will be. Maybe they pan out eventually, maybe not, but so far they haven’t done anything in the bigs where it matters.

The Trout/Machado/Harper triumvirate was a much better comparison.


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[mfw13]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Mookie Betts 2nd in MVP at age 23 in 2016
Alex Bregman world champ at 23 in 2017
Kris Bryant MVP and champ at 24 in 2016
Mike Trout MVP at 24 in 2016
Manny Macho 5th in MVP at 23 in 2016
Bryce Harper MVP at 22 in 2015
Francisco Lindor 5th in MVP at 23 in 2017
Noah Syndergaard 8th in Cy Young at 23 in 2016

And collectors for the most part couldn't care less about any of them other than Trout, because they've moved on to Ohtani, Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr., Bichette, Wander, etc.

Heck, the hobby couldn't even care less about Aaron Judge any more, and he was the hottest thing since sliced bread for most of 2017/18.

The problem is that there are ALWAYS new prospects rising through the system, which makes it very hard for anyone other than the highest-level superstars to keep collectors' interest over the long term. The cycle never ends.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by mfw13

And collectors for the most part couldn't care less about any of them other than Trout, because they've moved on to Ohtani, Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr., Bichette, Wander, etc.

Heck, the hobby couldn't even care less about Aaron Judge any more, and he was the hottest thing since sliced bread for most of 2017/18.

The problem is that there are ALWAYS new prospects rising through the system, which makes it very hard for anyone other than the highest-level superstars to keep collectors' interest over the long term. The cycle never ends.

Hobby DEFINITELY cares about Betts. His stuff has increased dramatically over 2014-2018 prices

The other guys have only gotten worse as times gone on... or in Bregman’s case, cheated.

If they had stayed consistent or gotten better with age, they’d all get a lot more hobby love.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by mfw13

And collectors for the most part couldn't care less about any of them other than Trout, because they've moved on to Ohtani, Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr., Bichette, Wander, etc.

Heck, the hobby couldn't even care less about Aaron Judge any more, and he was the hottest thing since sliced bread for most of 2017/18.

The problem is that there are ALWAYS new prospects rising through the system, which makes it very hard for anyone other than the highest-level superstars to keep collectors' interest over the long term. The cycle never ends.

Man, if Judge wasn’t injured nearly every year, he would still be white hot despite him being comparatively old when he made his debut. The Yankees fan base is massive and Judge is a likable dude.


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[BBases31]

Originally Posted by mfw13

And collectors for the most part couldn't care less about any of them other than Trout.

What are you talking about? That list has some of the most expensive players in the hobby. Mookie has a $700 BC Auto and Harper's is $400. Even Lindor and Bryant have a $200 base auto. Just because there aren't a bunch of degenerate gamblers hyping those guys up on this forum doesn't mean they aren't relevant

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

I’m pointing to the FACT that today’s young stars have actual stats demonstrating that they aren’t just hype and explaining why what we are looking at right now is very different than what you just described.

It’s not hype when it’s reality. Hyping is telling everyone how great Kelenic, Adell, etc will be. Maybe they pan out eventually, maybe not, but so far they haven’t done anything in the bigs where it matters.

The Trout/Machado/Harper triumvirate was a much better comparison.

Okay, but I’ll see you in this same thread in 1-3 years.