Yes, this is a bubble. No, it's not the 90s again

[Gradek]

2020 saw multiple hundreds of percent increase in many graded card prices, virtually across the board with no economic justification besides Covid related issues (stimulus, nothing else to spend disposable income on, etc). Thus much of the gains will likely leave us once we get past Covid (2nd half 21-1st half 22). In order for prices to just hold steady we would need the same amount of money to be spent on cards as was in 2020 (and obviously even more for prices to increase). I just do not see any evidence that indicates the spending from 2020/first half 2021 is sustainable.

I believe what we had in the hobby pre-Covid was fairly healthy though (and we were seeing more reasonable gains then too) and because of that, I doubt we will fall all the way back to those prices or worse see the total collapse that we saw in the 90s. If I had to guess right now, I would say a 50% fall from peak pricing is fairly likely (which would still mean anything purchased prior to Covid would still be up big), with a return to a more "normal" market to follow that "crash" in 2022.

[speedyjg13]

Originally Posted by Gradek

2020 saw multiple hundreds of percent increase in many graded card prices, virtually across the board with no economic justification besides Covid related issues (stimulus, nothing else to spend disposable income on, etc). Thus much of the gains will likely leave us once we get past Covid (2nd half 21-1st half 22). In order for prices to just hold steady we would need the same amount of money to be spent on cards as was in 2020 (and obviously even more for prices to increase). I just do not see any evidence that indicates the spending from 2020/first half 2021 is sustainable.

I believe what we had in the hobby pre-Covid was fairly healthy though (and we were seeing more reasonable gains then too) and because of that, I doubt we will fall all the way back to those prices or worse see the total collapse that we saw in the 90s. If I had to guess right now, I would say a 50% fall from peak pricing is fairly likely (which would still mean anything purchased prior to Covid would still be up big), with a return to a more "normal" market to follow that "crash" in 2022.

Time to buy for the PC!

[discodanman45]

People are still at home, people are still making money flipping, grading is overwhelmed, you can't buy retail product, people with big money are in the "hobby", $1400 stimulus may be coming, etc... prices are insane, but this is the new market. Crashes typically don't happen quickly, it could be years away.

[rngrdanny22]

Just reading through the 1099-K thread, I'm beginning to wonder how many flippers are about to get burned and turned away from cards...

[smanzari]

What if I told you the entire "sports cards worth anything" is a bubble? IE the whole hobby? Well it is, cards literally have no intrinsic value.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by smanzari

What if I told you the entire "sports cards worth anything" is a bubble? IE the whole hobby? Well it is, cards literally have no intrinsic value.

By that logic, neither does anything else. Not even U.S. Currency...

[Eric1285]

This seems like a good place to drop this anecdote...

Saw a post on a coin collecting forum that went along the lines of "Hey guys, is this (common coin with no numismatic value) worth anything, or is it junk like baseball cards?" About half a dozen replies followed, all joking about how worthless cardboard is. Not a single person thought card collecting was any different from what it was in the 90's.

Clearly there are still plenty of people unaware of the boom.

[ricefan77]

Originally Posted by smanzari

What if I told you the entire "sports cards worth anything" is a bubble? IE the whole hobby? Well it is, cards literally have no intrinsic value.

This is a fact, unfortunately, for the higher end guys there may be a lot more room to go. The timing of the decline is also very tough, things could double from here in the next 3 months then decline 80% from there over the next 10 years.

[Gradek]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

People are still at home, people are still making money flipping, grading is overwhelmed, you can't buy retail product, people with big money are in the "hobby", $1400 stimulus may be coming, etc... prices are insane, but this is the new market. Crashes typically don't happen quickly, it could be years away.

1) All your justifications are why I said second half of 21 for the crash start and are precisely the reasons why the crash will happen. Read my post again, in order for prices to even just hold current levels, you would need an equal amount of money to come into the hobby, which isn’t going to happen post COVID.

2) crashes don’t happen quickly, really? The quicker a bubble builds, the quicker it will end.

[ksemmel]

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=bubble

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=bubble

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=bubble

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ghlight=bubble

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Gradek

1) All your justifications are why I said second half of 21 for the crash start and are precisely the reasons why the crash will happen. Read my post again, in order for prices to even just hold current levels, you would need an equal amount of money to come into the hobby, which isn’t going to happen post COVID.

2) crashes don’t happen quickly, really? The quicker a bubble builds, the quicker it will end.

There is more money entering the hobby than most people realize. Youtube sportscard channels continue to rise, which means advertising $$$ enters the market. Even small youtubers have been contacted to be sponsored. Trading cards as a community is bigger than anyone knows. It is increasing globally and even pokemon collectors are going to other types of trading cards. I don't see how this is sustainable, but if you have 100 million collectors world wide it will be.

[shayscards79]

Originally Posted by Eric1285

This seems like a good place to drop this anecdote...

Saw a post on a coin collecting forum that went along the lines of "Hey guys, is this (common coin with no numismatic value) worth anything, or is it junk like baseball cards?" About half a dozen replies followed, all joking about how worthless cardboard is. Not a single person thought card collecting was any different from what it was in the 90's.

Clearly there are still plenty of people unaware of the boom.

It's true but people are slowly becoming aware because of the media coverage.

On another forum I post on someone started a thread about how much Trout and LeBron cards were selling for and posting links to articles. A couple of people were aware of what cards are doing now but most of the responses were like "I have a bunch of Griffey and Frank Thomas rookies.. too bad theyre worthless" or "I have a bunch of hockey cards from the 80s and 90s... too bad they're worthless" and have zero insight as to what modern cards are going for now.

[ucLAkers]

I can tell you one thing...I cannot afford these current prices. In 2014 I thought the prices were already crazy but 2020 has officially put a halt to my spending wax for fun. Even breaks are way overpriced. Cant imagine the burn on 2021 unless you are extremely lucky.
Now for me....its all about what I want to keep and the rest I will sell while I still can.

I do not see this slowing down in the next 5 years...since prices were already bursting before Covid.


Kris Bryant
Aaron Judge
Ohtani
Soto
Acuna

I wont even discuss NBA LeBron, Kyrie, Curry or NFL Mahomes

all of these before covid $$$$$

But lets get deep....the card that started it all was the Strasburg super. Before that...boxes were reasonable.

[smanzari]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

By that logic, neither does anything else. Not even U.S. Currency...

They're "backed" by the USGov't Tho; Sports Cards are backed by nothing. I'm a collector, down for some arbitration, but ALWAYS keep this in mind when people calling them "investments"

[shayscards79]

Originally Posted by ucLAkers

I can tell you one thing...I cannot afford these current prices. In 2014 I thought the prices were already crazy but 2020 has officially put a halt to my spending wax for fun. Even breaks are way overpriced. Cant imagine the burn on 2021 unless you are extremely lucky.
Now for me....its all about what I want to keep and the rest I will sell while I still can.

I do not see this slowing down in the next 5 years...since prices were already bursting before Covid.


Kris Bryant
Aaron Judge
Ohtani
Soto
Acuna

I wont even discuss NBA LeBron, Kyrie, Curry or NFL Mahomes

all of these before covid $$$$$

But lets get deep....the card that started it all was the Strasburg super. Before that...boxes were reasonable.

I hear ya. I stopped buying wax years ago. The last year I actually bought cases of Bowman products was 2016. I stopped buying boxes in 2018.

[Chicharito]

Investment X

Gamble O

[k13]

How many pwcc/probstein sales are not real but counted as so towards the market?

$10 million + easy...

[jduds]

PSA's parent company just sold for a pretty penny. Their conservative estimates had their business quintupling in the next few years. Plenty of financial wizzes looked at that and either agreed or thought they were underestimating. If their outlook is correct, we are still in the start of the boom.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by Gradek

1) All your justifications are why I said second half of 21 for the crash start and are precisely the reasons why the crash will happen. Read my post again, in order for prices to even just hold current levels, you would need an equal amount of money to come into the hobby, which isn’t going to happen post COVID.

2) crashes don’t happen quickly, really? The quicker a bubble builds, the quicker it will end.

Should we all start selling now? Can you give me some stock predictions?


Not trying to bust your balls and you very well could be right, but it's nearly impossible to "time the market"


could it burst? Sure.
could it continue to climb? Sure.
could it be somewhere in the middle? Sure.


For one, I'm hedging my bet somewhat. Selling here and there in pieces.


I do think the market could have some volatile shifts over the next few years, but the quality will still be there, the demand will still be there, and the money will still be there.

[babybull]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Just reading through the 1099-K thread, I'm beginning to wonder how many flippers are about to get burned and turned away from cards...

Burned in what way?

[k13]

Originally Posted by jduds

PSA's parent company just sold for a pretty penny. Their conservative estimates had their business quintupling in the next few years. Plenty of financial wizzes looked at that and either agreed or thought they were underestimating. If their outlook is correct, we are still in the start of the boom.

Grading will be up.
Flooding the market with more junk base.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Just reading through the 1099-K thread, I'm beginning to wonder how many flippers are about to get burned and turned away from cards...

You think flippers are going to accurately report their income for tax purposes? A better sentence might be “I’m begging to wonder how many flippers will be burned years from now when a small percentage of them get audited.”

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

You think flippers are going to accurately report their income for tax purposes? A better sentence might be “I’m begging to wonder how many flippers will be burned years from now when a small percentage of them get audited.”

Once a 1099-k is issued it is much easier for the IRS to track. You can't make deductions unless you do a schedule C or D once the form is issued. Many people will ignore thinking online garage sale and get a huge bill from the IRS later in the year. I will enjoy the chaos!

[Gradek]

Originally Posted by jduds

PSA's parent company just sold for a pretty penny. Their conservative estimates had their business quintupling in the next few years. Plenty of financial wizzes looked at that and either agreed or thought they were underestimating. If their outlook is correct, we are still in the start of the boom.

This isn’t really a good argument though. Lots of “financial whizzes” looked at internet companies in 1999/2000 and thought those were cheap too. Also, PSA can still do very well if card prices fell by half.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Once a 1099-k is issued it is much easier for the IRS to track. You can't make deductions unless you do a schedule C or D once the form is issued. Many people will ignore thinking online garage sale and get a huge bill from the IRS later in the year. I will enjoy the chaos!

Ah, okay. I would go through all 9+ pages on cards and taxes, but I only sold like 3 cards last year with a total under $200.