Zion bringing down the hobby?

[Silverandgold]

The good thing is there are 3 great rookies coming out. One will make it and hold up the market but yes it will be a different market if Zion fails.

[tmar214]

I think no matter how good Zion or the next rookie class is next years rookie class will be underpriced.

For the most part last years nba products (Luka/ trae) have been affordable because so much money was spent the previous year that the 2018 class never got hyped up.

I’d expect the same for next year. People tend to overspend in the hyped up years then you see a bit of a lul the following year. Long term the hobby will be fine. There have been tons of massive busts over the years. That’s part of speculating on players.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Dnic

As much as Zion is being hyped I beg to differ

Is Giannis a hobby superstar?

[KhalDrogo]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamzag.../#3c29ff9d3a36

[Dnic]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Is Giannis a hobby superstar?

Yes big difference is he was not hyped at all he proved he is a great player, Zion proved exactly what yet? Yah nothing.....

[clipperboy24]

Originally Posted by brothertona

So we were talking about this while we were breaking boxes last night but what if Zion isn't otherworldy, what if he is merely good? What if instead of 24 and 10, you get 15 and 8 or 17 and 5 or worse? Could a Zion collapse bring down the hobby? You've all seen box prices and how they've trickled upwards with the mere mention of his name. Zion-Mania has been a massive cash cow for Panini. What if he crashes? Does he bring the hobby down with him?

Interesting topic OP, thanks for posting! I think the box prices will come crashing down, and the hobby could see some disinterest and maybe less prospecting. It definitely is a bubble that has formed like crazy with a lot of “players” in the market who traditionally didn’t collect cards or hadn’t for a while. What some of these cards are going for is insane right now. People act like Prizm 2012-13 silvers are so rare at 200-300 copies. Up until recently that was considered a high print run that wouldn’t be valued much.

Side note, I am seriously contemplating selling my Lebron and Jordan Autos because they are so crazy high now. Just wish I still had my high end exquisites and Lebron rookie year stuff still

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Dnic

Yes big difference is he was not hyped at all he proved he is a great player, Zion proved exactly what yet? Yah nothing.....

So if Zion puts up Giannis numbers by age 24, he won’t be a hobby superstar?

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Dnic

Yes big difference is he was not hyped at all he proved he is a great player, Zion proved exactly what yet? Yah nothing.....

He proved he can double to triple the prices of hobby products before they even come out.

[Dnic]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

So if Zion puts up Giannis numbers by age 24, he won’t be a hobby superstar?

Yah let me know when that happens I highly doubt it will "ever" happen.

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

He proved he can double to triple the prices of hobby products before they even come out.

Actually the masses helped that by paying the premiums if they didnt you would see the prices of product drop to where they should be.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You don't have to be the next MJ to be a hobby superstar.

Originally Posted by Dnic

As much as Zion is being hyped I beg to differ

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Is Giannis a hobby superstar?

Originally Posted by Dnic

Yes big difference is he was not hyped at all he proved he is a great player, Zion proved exactly what yet? Yah nothing.....

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

So if Zion puts up Giannis numbers by age 24, he won’t be a hobby superstar?

Originally Posted by Dnic

Yah let me know when that happens I highly doubt it will "ever" happen.

So you agree with my initial comment now? That you don’t have to be the next MJ to be a hobby superstar? You just think that nobody ever will put up Giannis numbers again?

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Dnic

Yah let me know when that happens I highly doubt it will "ever" happen.



Actually the masses helped that by paying the premiums if they didnt you would see the prices of product drop to where they should be.

The masses want Zion.

We’re in a catch 22 so I’m not going to argue with you.

[Arianny_Fan]

I think it's great people spen their money on Zion. I'll happily spend mine on Kobe, Bron, MJ and even Curry and AD.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

If he's putting up highlights that'll be all the hobby need his rookie year even at 17 and 8. Imagine if NOP are actually good.

Ignore anyone talking about win shares, VORP, PER or any of that garbage. If he strings together highlights like Vince Carter, that will be plenty.

To me, Vince's rookie year is still tops for me as far as in season hype (I could see an argument for Shaq but card prices weren't nearly as high in '92-93). Seemed like every week he had some crazy highlight. NOBODY attacked the rim like him. He drove and dunked angry and with style.

I'm not saying best, just pure hype. And he didn't have a ton coming into the league. Everything was organic once he made a completely irrelevant franchise like the Raptors matter.

I know someone's gonna argue LeBron but it wasn't like Vince. He had hype for years and his rookie season was better but it didn't have the excitement that Vince had.

[Ferg1945]

All Zion has to do this year is prove he belongs in the NBA. 17 and 8 would be totally fine.

Show flashes of what lies ahead and do insane dunks.

If he is Anthony Bennett... people will move on.

[byronscott4ever]

I’d go Shaq and maybe even Duncan...both had hype as collegians. Shaq was an exclusive to Classic so many were just waiting to go crazy at them. Lower prices meant many were able to collect.

Originally Posted by regularp

Ignore anyone talking about win shares, VORP, PER or any of that garbage. If he strings together highlights like Vince Carter, that will be plenty.

To me, Vince's rookie year is still tops for me as far as in season hype (I could see an argument for Shaq but card prices weren't nearly as high in '92-93). Seemed like every week he had some crazy highlight. NOBODY attacked the rim like him. He drove and dunked angry and with style.

I'm not saying best, just pure hype. And he didn't have a ton coming into the league. Everything was organic once he made a completely irrelevant franchise like the Raptors matter.

I know someone's gonna argue LeBron but it wasn't like Vince. He had hype for years and his rookie season was better but it didn't have the excitement that Vince had.

[chuckerrrr]

Originally Posted by Arianny_Fan

I think it's great people spen their money on Zion. I'll happily spend mine on Kobe, Bron, MJ and even Curry and AD.

Im with you. Sell sell sell any Zion.

[gomiamigo]

Fair enough, but it's just as likely AD's prices will fall as Zions, unless he wins a title and is the best player on the Lakers while doing so [as opposed to an LBJ sidekick like Kyrie whose prices have plummeted]

The other guys are multiple champs and MVPs so different calculus there. Honestly I could see Kobe's prices falling in the future. Not predicting it though.

[ragingbull]

The problem I am seeing is the inflated prices of panini products. If Zion pans out, would it be enough for collectors to open boxes or join breaks? At this point, many aren’t really looking forward to open boxes except maybe Prizm (not Prizm Draft but Prizm). Then again, a lot of would-be busters might get turned off with the inflated prizes of Prizm, as well. I heard that it might be at $500 per hobby box. Thats already the price of a 2018-19 FOTL box in the secondary market. Haha. Imagine how much a case of NT would be.. maybe $7k? LOL.

To add, I feel that Zion, Barrett and Morant autos will be short printed. Why? Its because of the “rarity” of these in Contenders Draft. If my thought is correct, then, prices of singles of these 3 will go up and not many can afford to buy them, or for some to take a gamble on them. So coupled with the overpricing of boxes, if no one’s opening, supply will definitely go down.

In essence, I feel that Zion whether he pans out or not, can destroy the basketball card market as there might just be an exodus of investors, box busters, participants in breaks, and collectors etc. To me, the main culprit is Panini. Not Zion. Panini should lower their box prices to levels where they are still reasonable. Prices of last year’s wax products were reasonable (for most). Unlike the absurd prices Panini has bestowed on us this season just because of Zion Williamson.

For the hobby’s sake, Panini should not try to milk everyone’s pockets. This is just cardboard, Panini. Its just a hobby. What you are doing might be just be your downfall if you’re not careful.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by ragingbull

The problem I am seeing is the inflated prices of panini products. If Zion pans out, would it be enough for collectors to open boxes or join breaks? At this point, many aren’t really looking forward to open boxes except maybe Prizm (not Prizm Draft but Prizm). Then again, a lot of would-be busters might get turned off with the inflated prizes of Prizm, as well. I heard that it might be at $500 per hobby box. Thats already the price of a 2018-19 FOTL box in the secondary market. Haha. Imagine how much a case of NT would be.. maybe $7k? LOL.

To add, I feel that Zion, Barrett and Morant autos will be short printed. Why? Its because of the “rarity” of these in Contenders Draft. If my thought is correct, then, prices of singles of these 3 will go up and not many can afford to buy them, or for some to take a gamble on them. So coupled with the overpricing of boxes, if no one’s opening, supply will definitely go down.

In essence, I feel that Zion whether he pans out or not, can destroy the basketball card market as there might just be an exodus of investors, box busters, participants in breaks, and collectors etc. To me, the main culprit is Panini. Not Zion. Panini should lower their box prices to levels where they are still reasonable. Prices of last year’s wax products were reasonable (for most). Unlike the absurd prices Panini has bestowed on us this season just because of Zion Williamson.

For the hobby’s sake, Panini should not try to milk everyone’s pockets. This is just cardboard, Panini. Its just a hobby. What you are doing might be just be your downfall if you’re not careful.

It's not Panini that is marking the products up 400%. Panini is still getting the same cut they always have. It's the distributors and 3rd parties involved that are marking them up.

[WallyatJCCards]

Originally Posted by brothertona

So we were talking about this while we were breaking boxes last night but what if Zion isn't otherworldy, what if he is merely good? What if instead of 24 and 10, you get 15 and 8 or 17 and 5 or worse? Could a Zion collapse bring down the hobby? You've all seen box prices and how they've trickled upwards with the mere mention of his name. Zion-Mania has been a massive cash cow for Panini. What if he crashes? Does he bring the hobby down with him?

I really hope he doesn't live up to the hype so that most of us can get back in the wax cracking game. Whether you like Group Breaks, opening packs, opening boxes, Zion and the hobby being hot overall has shot these prices sky high. NOTHING is reasonably priced anymore and very few products are even "fun" to open. Certified is already at 200 a box before release. Huh? Anything outside of Zion and you're breaking even, at best... Makes it no fun for most of us!

[ragingbull]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

It's not Panini that is marking the products up 400%. Panini is still getting the same cut they always have. It's the distributors and 3rd parties involved that are marking them up.

I might be wrong, I am not a retailer but I feel distributors price their hobby boxes (FOTL is all about hype) accordingly versus their cost. In this regard, I think Panini has also increased their prices on the distribution level. I also heard that if a distributor wants to get sellable products such as Prizm, NT, Noir, Immaculate, he needs to get the not so popular products say Hoops, Opulence, etc.. If this is true, then, distributors are forced to jack up prices of the sellable products to compensate on the “overstock” of Opulence, for example.

Panini, in my opinion, should be able to work with its retailers to come up with the best pricing for each product to win more collectors not shoo them away.

[mc1]

Originally Posted by ragingbull

I might be wrong, I am not a retailer but I feel distributors price their hobby boxes (FOTL is all about hype) accordingly versus their cost. In this regard, I think Panini has also increased their prices on the distribution level. I also heard that if a distributor wants to get sellable products such as Prizm, NT, Noir, Immaculate, he needs to get the not so popular products say Hoops, Opulence, etc.. If this is true, then, distributors are forced to jack up prices of the sellable products to compensate on the “overstock” of Opulence, for example.

Panini, in my opinion, should be able to work with its retailers to come up with the best pricing for each product to win more collectors not shoo them away.

Nope. Distributors and sellers like BO are the ones jacking prices up.

[ragingbull]

Originally Posted by mc1

Nope. Distributors and sellers like BO are the ones jacking prices up.

Then they shouldn't be doing this. The mark up is too much. Its going to scare collectors who would try their luck. Smh.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

Fair enough, but it's just as likely AD's prices will fall as Zions, unless he wins a title and is the best player on the Lakers while doing so [as opposed to an LBJ sidekick like Kyrie whose prices have plummeted]

The other guys are multiple champs and MVPs so different calculus there. Honestly I could see Kobe's prices falling in the future. Not predicting it though.

[gomiamigo]

Why did you bold that and not the [I'm] Not predicting it?

If you think there's a 0% chance Kobe's values drop let's bet as much money as you want and I'll take 20-1 odds.