First Buzz: 2021 Topps Series 1 baseball cards + SPs

[MuskokaMelts]

Ice anything in flagship is a shame, I mean I like the parallel but not in flagship paper. I noticed golds and rainbows were scare in update this year, I guess they needed to add more parallels to make up for increased print numbers. Chrome is getting new parallels as well I see.

[actionbryan]

Any target or Walmart online drop hints?

Looks like it hasn’t on target yet .

Side note, target sold update Sapphire. Didn’t know they did that

[glassofwater]

Originally Posted by shawn120

Anyone bought from these guys before? Great pricing on retail.

https://tayloredsignature.com/produc...-one-baseball/


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Missed out on a case of blasters at msrp any others sites? Also what time do you think topps puts up hobby and blasters?

[gmoney328]

I'm actually thankful for this design. It gives me a reason to stay away for the most part and snipe singles. I have spent entirely too much on cards in the last 18 months. It will be nice to have a break for a few months. Factory set here I come.

[thewild3]

Are people just holding on to sealed boxes now or what. I noticed that retail is out and it doesn't seem like there are any singles up for sale.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by thewild3

Are people just holding on to sealed boxes now or what. I noticed that retail is out and it doesn't seem like there are any singles up for sale.

Its a little early to come to any conclusions about the release considering it doesn't actually release for 3 more days.

[eldustino]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Its a little early to come to any conclusions about the release considering it doesn't actually release for 3 more days.

I agree with thewild; lots of in-hand retail on the bay, and very few singles.

I've been doing this long enough (watching ebay as new sets drop), this seems a little weird. Almost seems like the listings are getting suppressed in search results....

I'm actively trying to be patient, but admit I am just wanting to see the cards and these flippers aren't putting in the work to fill my feed with images of the new cards..... ha ha ha.

( I don't blame them )

[warrenwolk]

Originally Posted by cj828282

So we have orange paper ice #/299 and red paper ice #/199 unannounced parallels. Have to wonder if there are other ice color parallels and if retail only.

I wonder how long before violence breaks out in the retail card section?

[cj828282]

Brent just posted a few hobby odds. Golds are 1:27 hobby packs, so may not even get one gold per box. And four of the six hobby inserts do not fall 1 per hobby box. Going to be tough and lots of cases to complete master sets.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by cj828282

Brent just posted a few hobby odds. Golds are 1:27 hobby packs, so may not even get one gold per box. And four of the six hobby inserts do not fall 1 per hobby box. Going to be tough and lots of cases to complete master sets.

Good lord

[CTMopar87]

Originally Posted by warrenwolk

I wonder how long before violence breaks out in the retail card section?

Pretty sure that's already happened.

[PostBaloney]

jumbo case arriving wednesday. lets go. i'll be posting any hits straight to feebay

[Technochocolate]

Originally Posted by cj828282

Brent just posted a few hobby odds. Golds are 1:27 hobby packs, so may not even get one gold per box. And four of the six hobby inserts do not fall 1 per hobby box. Going to be tough and lots of cases to complete master sets.

Average of 10.7 golds per case. Yeesh.

(below math assumes the odds for all parallels are proportional)

For reference, the print run of all parallels numbered to less than 100 (black/indy/red/blue/camo/vintage) are 440, meaning you should hit 4.6 gold for every 1 rare parallel.

Imagine hitting 2 rare parallels in a case. Because that's what the odds say.



Also as an aside, remember the checklist went from 350 to 330 cards. That's about 40,000 gold cards out of circulation.

[warrenwolk]

Originally Posted by Gradek

Let’s be clear though. As far as I am aware, Topps has yet to significantly increase their prices or production (both of which are coming once we are through this COVID mess).

You are incorrect.

[LVDan]

That’s crazy. What are the retail odds? I think a 24pk would be the best comp


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[ryanc576]

Originally Posted by Technochocolate

Average of 10.7 golds per case. Yeesh.

(below math assumes the odds for all parallels are proportional)

For reference, the print run of all parallels numbered to less than 100 (black/indy/red/blue/camo/vintage) are 440, meaning you should hit 4.6 gold for every 1 rare parallel.

Imagine hitting 2 rare parallels in a case. Because that's what the odds say.



Also as an aside, remember the checklist went from 350 to 330 cards. That's about 40,000 gold cards out of circulation.

This is just ludicrous. So basically, unless the odds are skewed somewhere else in the print run, this indicates a fairly hefty production increase, correct? I'm not mathematically inclined enough to weigh the loss of 20 base cards against the tougher pack odds to understand what this indicates about total print run. That's tripping me up here.

It is hard to imagine opening a full case and landing a total of 10 golds. Compared to, what, about 3 times that just a few years ago? As for the others, I pity those who will be chasing the black parallel rookies.

But, you know, what does it matter? The base parallels are only the biggest draw of the entire product...

[ThoseBackPages]

Yea, print runs UP!

[jsatx]

baseballcardpedia says hobby odds for a gold were 1:14 for 2020 S1. Is this accurate? If this is the same across all box/pack types I'm seeing an 80% increase in base production from last year. Tell me I'm wrong. I really want to be wrong here.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by jsatx

baseballcardpedia says hobby odds for a gold were 1:14 for 2020 S1. Is this accurate? If this is the same across all box/pack types I'm seeing an 80% increase in base production from last year. Tell me I'm wrong. I really want to be wrong here.

They’re not consistent year over year. Jumbo could be 1/pack for all we know. Or they could’ve moved all the golds to retail,

But I’m sure production is up.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by jsatx

baseballcardpedia says hobby odds for a gold were 1:14 for 2020 S1. Is this accurate? If this is the same across all box/pack types I'm seeing an 80% increase in base production from last year. Tell me I'm wrong. I really want to be wrong here.

Too early to tell, but you are probably right. There will be mass amounts of money lost breaking cases at these prices. Longer odds at inserts like the golds, no top tier rookies, and massive production increases. Its a deep rookie checklist, but that won't cover the current prices. You will see a decent dip in case prices in a couple of weeks. Hold out if you want to break.

[oldgoldy97]

Why wouldn’t they increase supply when demand is up?

[avicke]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Why wouldn’t they increase supply when demand is up?

Right?

Half want them to print more. Half want them to stop the presses. Feel like as long as that sentiment continues relatively equally, they are doing their part.

[jmweb]

From my first case (Hobby)
11 Golds /2021
29 Foil
3 Green /499
2 black /70
2 orange /299
1 red /199
1 Independence day /76
1 vintage /99
1 stats /300
3 photo SPs
2 Acetates /10 (Same box, different packs but packs were back to back).

i would say 12 or more packs from each box had zero hits. Typically, you see that in 1 box or even less per case.

I didn't get any thing that i would consider the case hit. It is possible i missed a SSP.. ?
I got 4 autos and 8 relics. nothing to write home about.

I did get 2 nice autos from the Silver packs Acuna orange /25 and Yazstremski /99.

I still have 1 jumbo case to break. Fingers crossed..

[avicke]

Originally Posted by jmweb

From my first case (Hobby)
11 Golds /2021
29 Foil
3 Green /499
2 black /70
2 orange /299
1 red /199
1 Independence day /76
1 vintage /99
1 stats /300
3 photo SPs
2 Acetates /10 (Same box, different packs but packs were back to back).

i would say 12 or more packs from each box had zero hits. Typically, you see that in 1 box or even less per case.

I didn't get any thing that i would consider the case hit. It is possible i missed a SSP.. ?
I got 4 autos and 8 relics. nothing to write home about.

I did get 2 nice autos from the Silver packs Acuna orange /25 and Yazstremski /99.

I still have 1 jumbo case to break. Fingers crossed..

Do the hobby pack odds list those new parallels - the green, orange and red? Is the green an ice like the orange and reds? Thanks for the post!

[waytoomanycards]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Too early to tell, but you are probably right. There will be mass amounts of money lost breaking cases at these prices. Longer odds at inserts like the golds, no top tier rookies, and massive production increases. Its a deep rookie checklist, but that won't cover the current prices. You will see a decent dip in case prices in a couple of weeks. Hold out if you want to break.

Agreed. Throw in the crazy wait times for bulk grading, the difficulty of grading the colored parallels (personally I've only graded a tiny percent of the golds I've pulled over the years and 0 of the various blue/red parallels), and I don't see this being a great break at those prices.

It takes paying $25-$50 to get anything back during the season. Some rookies may be worth that if they get super hot, but there's no way to know that right now, and grading seems to be priced in.

Centering could also be an issue depending on QC.