The Zion 'Fatboi' Williamson Career LDL/HDL Tracker | BBW Appreciation Megathread.

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I agree with what you’re saying, I just feel like the market has priced this stuff in. His good stuff is barely selling as it is, so you don’t get too many shots at it.

That’s why I can buy a O&O for less than I’ve ever been able to buy one currently. I think most reasonable people assumed he wouldn’t play this year as the Pelicans are dumpster divers.

The market is still incredibly irrational. They do not have the risk of not playing again priced in. I’d say at this point that the risk of him not playing again is higher than him winning an mvp or two. Think of all the high quality talent there is in the NBA that are playing now and getting better. Zion has a lot of catching up to do with those players while also avoiding another major injury in his career.

I want Zion to come back and ball out but this is starting to get scary in terms of his long term prospects of having the kind of career he should have had.


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[Scottish Punk]

Put me in the camp of I don't think he plays this year. Pelicans aren't playing for anything as a team anyways. I also fear for his development path. I would think the biggest jumps for any player are in year 2 or 3. I get that he is still young, but he is now firmly behind the curve and will take a lot of work to get back to projections. It is very likely that he comes back and is good player and not great. There is also a chance that he is Greg Oden.

Man this was a thought I had yesterday about our wonderful speculation hobby.

Basketball: Zion hurt, future in doubt of super stardom
Football: Lawrence, biggest can't miss QB, struggled rookie year
Hockey: Lafrieniere - Seems like he isn't producing to match his hype
Baseball: ? Hope Acuna comes back fine or Wander doesn't tank

Just be careful spending a ton of money on unproven guys, but these would be very higj profile busts and market drivers. It is still early on all these guys and they could all very well be fine in the end.

[YeahBuddy]

Once upon a time it was all doom and gloom for KD too.

They said he'll never be the same. Will only be a spot up shooter going forward, yet he's charging the lane with dunks and being just as shifty as ever.

Joel Embiid had a hell of a slow start too with injuries and while perhaps still prone he's had a heck of a lot of good seasons since....

But yeah let's just keep writing Zion off. ha

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by YeahBuddy

Once upon a time it was all doom and gloom for KD too.

They said he'll never be the same. Will only be a spot up shooter going forward, yet he's charging the lane with dunks and being just as shifty as ever.

Joel Embiid had a hell of a slow start too with injuries and while perhaps still prone he's had a heck of a lot of good seasons since....

But yeah let's just keep writing Zion off. ha

People get so butt hurt over any slight against their player of choice. Nobody is writing Zion off. What we are saying is that it's a scary time to have serious money into him and that if you are planning on buying him, we may not even be close to the floor on him. If you do buy him, you better be in it for the long haul because the market as a whole is down and it's not the best time to go in on a prospect who has missed more games than has played with no set return in sight.

And you compare Zion to Embiid, not the worst comparison but I'll ask this, were people sinking this kind of heavy money into Embiid cards? And take this question with a grain of salt but what is the market like for Embiid now? Let's say Zion has a similar career to Embiid, does that mean Zion's stuff was way overpriced and needs to come down a lot or is Embiid underpriced and people are sleeping on him?

[brock]

Embiid is a bad example because he is a big and even with big numbers, is a perennial loafer.

Zion only finishes in the paint, but he has Point-Zion potential and dunks and leaps like a mofo. Real crowd pleaser.

Player profiles are too different to make a good card comparison.

[punctilious]

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[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by YeahBuddy

Once upon a time it was all doom and gloom for KD too.

They said he'll never be the same. Will only be a spot up shooter going forward, yet he's charging the lane with dunks and being just as shifty as ever.

Joel Embiid had a hell of a slow start too with injuries and while perhaps still prone he's had a heck of a lot of good seasons since....

But yeah let's just keep writing Zion off. ha

Durant already had a legacy with rings and MVPs lol.

Terrible comparison

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by YeahBuddy

Once upon a time it was all doom and gloom for KD too.

They said he'll never be the same. Will only be a spot up shooter going forward, yet he's charging the lane with dunks and being just as shifty as ever.

Joel Embiid had a hell of a slow start too with injuries and while perhaps still prone he's had a heck of a lot of good seasons since....

But yeah let's just keep writing Zion off. ha

Do you understand the difference between KD and Zion, and why this kind of injury can be worse for Zion’s career? This is not an apples to apples comparison.

All I’m saying is be careful. Too many people the last few months have been fooled into believing his market couldn’t fall too much further.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

People get so butt hurt over any slight against their player of choice. Nobody is writing Zion off. What we are saying is that it's a scary time to have serious money into him and that if you are planning on buying him, we may not even be close to the floor on him. If you do buy him, you better be in it for the long haul because the market as a whole is down and it's not the best time to go in on a prospect who has missed more games than has played with no set return in sight.

And you compare Zion to Embiid, not the worst comparison but I'll ask this, were people sinking this kind of heavy money into Embiid cards? And take this question with a grain of salt but what is the market like for Embiid now? Let's say Zion has a similar career to Embiid, does that mean Zion's stuff was way overpriced and needs to come down a lot or is Embiid underpriced and people are sleeping on him?

If you expect the market as a whole to rise and the floor to be lifted in the coming decade, who are the players currently playing you'd want to have to take advantage of that rise?

Player performance is one of the least meaningful attributes as to the ceiling of a card. Not saying it's not valuable, it is. It's just the least meaningful part of the equation.

The right cards of Zion are pretty much as low risk as you can get at this point in time. Sure, they may drop a bit more in the future (assuming the right cards even get sold) but overall it's never been a better time to buy the potential upside.

[jcardstore]

Just buy rare stuff you think you might not see again.

Market has definitely not priced in the chance of long term foot problems. Foot problems and big men don't go together.

If you're gonna speculate just wait until the playoffs and the hype should pick back up over the summer. Could be a nice quick flip

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

If you expect the market as a whole to rise and the floor to be lifted in the coming decade, who are the players currently playing you'd want to have to take advantage of that rise?

Player performance is one of the least meaningful attributes as to the ceiling of a card. Not saying it's not valuable, it is. It's just the least meaningful part of the equation.

The right cards of Zion are pretty much as low risk as you can get at this point in time. Sure, they may drop a bit more in the future (assuming the right cards even get sold) but overall it's never been a better time to buy the potential upside.

I don't expect the market as a whole to rise like it did and if it does, people are attracted to shiny new things. It's why I in a way, blame the Zion hype for partially causing the market to rise so much. If the market continues to attract new people and new money, I have a feeling it'll go towards established stars or the new up and coming players with all the draft hype.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

I don't expect the market as a whole to rise like it did and if it does, people are attracted to shiny new things. It's why I in a way, blame the Zion hype for partially causing the market to rise so much. If the market continues to attract new people and new money, I have a feeling it'll go towards established stars or the new up and coming players with all the draft hype.

I expect the last 2 things to happen as well, but we all just saw how the speculators place their bets. I'd expect the top rookies from the past few seasons, who will be in their primes in 5-7 years, to see big boosts as they SHOULD be carrying the NBA at that point (Luka, Trae, Tatum, Zion, etc...).

[nman84]

Too many Zion “steals” posted in this thread in the last few months. Even if he makes it back on the court this season, it won’t be for anything meaningful with this Pelicans squad. Just wait for May/June if you want to buy some Zion.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

Buying Zion now is akin to buying crypto. Speculative with a high degree of risk. If he came back this year and had some really solid games, could be a good time to get out.


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I feel like this is true. There’s going to be a massive amount of people currently holding that can’t wait for his 1st good week or month to start dumping their collection fast. The cracks on his foundation are starting to widen with unbelievable drops in such a short amount of time.


I kinda broke my own rule since I’ve been saying there’s no point buying his cards now and that was back in November when there was hope he’ll actually come back this year— yet here I am buying in on some deals. I just didn’t anticipate it to go down as quickly. I still believe this offseason will be the best re-entry point for him. There’s already a seismic shift of investors and prospectors going to Lamelo, JA and Edwards. Add this year’s class of Mobley, Jalen Green products coming next season plus the 2022 class of Banchero and the uncertainty of Zion’s health entering a summer.



The good thing is that collectors and fans today are more fickle than cautious and that 27 and 7 guy is not an aberration, so people can still play the Zion sweepstakes but consider the elevated risk.



You can forget about the Lebron level trajectory though. Charles Barkley like career with a shorter peak is still in the cards. Now where he spends his next 5 years will truly make or break his legacy, imo. I personally hope he leaves the Pelicans and ends up in one of those amazing programs like Miami where accountability and excellence are exercised.

[Spacemanspif]

I don't know how you guys can comment on how much his card prices have fallen, and also say the market hasn't priced in the risk.

In the spectrum of outcomes, "career ending injury at age 21" was always there, I suppose, but probably at a 1% level or something negligible. Right now it's probably a 10% chance of becoming reality, but being treated as if it's 25%? Making up numbers here, but if you look at sentiment on these boards and social media, there's a non-zero, and I feel somewhat significant portion of the hobby that believes it to be a more likely outcome than not. Plus, you can't really look at that outcome as binary anyway. If he never plays again, you won't actually know that until 5 years from now and looking back in retrospect. In reality, it would be a series of setbacks, causing additional spikes downward in pricing, but it will never go from Today's pricing straight to zero. There are offramps, because everyone has different levels of belief, and tolerance for risk.

The way I view it, you have to map out a handful of outcomes, create estimates of the likelihood of those outcomes, and determine whether the potential risk/reward is positive (or at least something you're willing to stomach), relative to other potential investments. A lot of people in this hobby, and specifically the types of people on these boards, are very risk averse. I'd guess that if I had 10 envelopes, one with $1200 and the other 9 with zero, and said, I'm charging $100 for you to pick a random envelope, you'd have a lot of people rejecting the offer on the basis that "90% of the time, you lose", even though the math would show a positive EV.

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I don't know how you guys can comment on how much his card prices have fallen, and also say the market hasn't priced in the risk.

In the spectrum of outcomes, "career ending injury at age 21" was always there, I suppose, but probably at a 1% level or something negligible. Right now it's probably a 10% chance of becoming reality, but being treated as if it's 25%? Making up numbers here, but if you look at sentiment on these boards and social media, there's a non-zero, and I feel somewhat significant portion of the hobby that believes it to be a more likely outcome than not. Plus, you can't really look at that outcome as binary anyway. If he never plays again, you won't actually know that until 5 years from now and looking back in retrospect. In reality, it would be a series of setbacks, causing additional spikes downward in pricing, but it will never go from Today's pricing straight to zero. There are offramps, because everyone has different levels of belief, and tolerance for risk.

The way I view it, you have to map out a handful of outcomes, create estimates of the likelihood of those outcomes, and determine whether the potential risk/reward is positive (or at least something you're willing to stomach), relative to other potential investments. A lot of people in this hobby, and specifically the types of people on these boards, are very risk averse. I'd guess that if I had 10 envelopes, one with $1200 and the other 9 with zero, and said, I'm charging $100 for you to pick a random envelope, you'd have a lot of people rejecting the offer on the basis that "90% of the time, you lose", even though the math would show a positive EV.

Agree to disagree. A lot of the new blood are going by hype alone and don't understand the market or how it works. Reminds me of all the bros who are buying Tesla stock. They buy the hype and ignore the news.

Here's the thing, Zion's prices are way too high for what he's done so far. When he comes back and has a few dunks, his prices will rise, but fall again unless he sustains or builds on those performances. I honestly believe that with how things are looking, Zion has more room to go down than he does up over the next 12 months. Longer than that, that's anyone's guess.

[biggieruth]

I'm still in the market for a One and One rookie. What's a realistic price for that card in this market.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

I don't know how you guys can comment on how much his card prices have fallen, and also say the market hasn't priced in the risk.

In the spectrum of outcomes, "career ending injury at age 21" was always there, I suppose, but probably at a 1% level or something negligible. Right now it's probably a 10% chance of becoming reality, but being treated as if it's 25%? Making up numbers here, but if you look at sentiment on these boards and social media, there's a non-zero, and I feel somewhat significant portion of the hobby that believes it to be a more likely outcome than not. Plus, you can't really look at that outcome as binary anyway. If he never plays again, you won't actually know that until 5 years from now and looking back in retrospect. In reality, it would be a series of setbacks, causing additional spikes downward in pricing, but it will never go from Today's pricing straight to zero. There are offramps, because everyone has different levels of belief, and tolerance for risk.

The way I view it, you have to map out a handful of outcomes, create estimates of the likelihood of those outcomes, and determine whether the potential risk/reward is positive (or at least something you're willing to stomach), relative to other potential investments. A lot of people in this hobby, and specifically the types of people on these boards, are very risk averse. I'd guess that if I had 10 envelopes, one with $1200 and the other 9 with zero, and said, I'm charging $100 for you to pick a random envelope, you'd have a lot of people rejecting the offer on the basis that "90% of the time, you lose", even though the math would show a positive EV.

Beautifully stated.

There's a reason the same people and dealers in the hobby make money YOY while others struggle.

Originally Posted by Brobocop

Here's the thing, Zion's prices are way too high for what he's done so far.

Cards aren't priced based on accomplishments. This has been said time and time again.

I got more money for a Rod Strickland card than 99% of cards that have sold through ebay in the past 90 days, and it's not becaue the Wu godson is in high demand.

Hell, I could spill the beans on a private sale Kawhi card that the majority of the forum would say I'm lying about.

The same will go down for Zion. Sets will win out.

Originally Posted by biggieruth

I'm still in the market for a One and One rookie. What's a realistic price for that card in this market.

Your best bet is to hope one shows up buried in an auction from one of the auction houses.

I'm taking two to Dallas to see how it goes and what the reaction is from the crowd.

The cheapest sale is $2100 from a PWCC weekly auction in mid November. Hope one pops up again like that.

[asujbl]

Did someone just compare Zion to Durant and not Oden?

I’ve been gone too much

[regularp]

Kevin Durant had surgery on his foot three times when he broke his fifth metatarsal in 2014-15.

Zion has to get his weight under control but this should not be some career altering injury.

[Dame]

Originally Posted by biggieruth

I'm still in the market for a One and One rookie. What's a realistic price for that card in this market.

Should be lower than the last PWCC auction. I got a BGS 10 for way less than what a PSA 10 usually goes for.

[Spacemanspif]

also pretty funny if you aren't watching, but someone put up a 24 hour auction on an NT RPA (ending on a Friday afternoon!) with the card barely in the frame of the picture. I'm sure this will end well.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/154783939295

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by regularp

Kevin Durant had surgery on his foot three times when he broke his fifth metatarsal in 2014-15.

The fact people actually thought YeahBuddy was referencing an achilles in comparison to a jones fracture shows the level of chronic amnesia that exists both in professional sports and the hobby.

B-b-b-ut.....fatboi setbacks....weight!!!



KD had 2 setbacks following his initial diagnosis and essentially missed the remainder of the 2013 season. He also shares the same frame as Ally McBeal and looks like a mild wind gust could cause a pneumothorax. Obviously opposite ends of the physical spectrum, but to say there weren't concerns about him back then would be disingenuous.




This injury has ended exactly 0 careers. It was the beginning of the end for a select handful, but that was moreso a function of age, culmination of peripheral ailments (Yao), or straight up lack of NBA level skill...not just the fracture.

Could 21 year old fatboi be the sole outlier in the NBA's 75 year history? Sure. Could a catastrophic tornado ravage New York City? Also theoretically possible. Play the odds according to your comfort level.


The continued fear mongering seems to emanate from the same select group of individuals whose concerns certainly contain some validity, but are trumped by their own thinly veiled disdain of the man somehow blamed for the covid run up and global economic shifts.

Just wait til the art, pokemon, crypto, and car clecters get the memo. Good thing he's in witness protection lampin' in an unmarked tent down Portland's red light district....

[bigjbasketball]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

also pretty funny if you aren't watching, but someone put up a 24 hour auction on an NT RPA (ending on a Friday afternoon!) with the card barely in the frame of the picture. I'm sure this will end well.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/154783939295

Ended at just over $33K. The last NT RPA /99 sold for $75K on Dec. 6, but that was a BGS 9. Have any sold at the big auction houses recently? I was just checking eBay but couldn’t find any other recent-ish sales.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by bigjbasketball

Ended at just over $33K. The last NT RPA /99 sold for $75K on Dec. 6, but that was a BGS 9. Have any sold at the big auction houses recently? I was just checking eBay but couldn’t find any other recent-ish sales.

FOTL /30 BGS 9/10 $72k - Lelands Dec 11
/99 BGS 9/10 $183k - Goldin Oct 25