✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I mean, what's the difference if you own a dozen $100 cards or one $800 card and a handful of others. Unless you're collecting for pure 100% enjoyment, the total dollar value leaning toward higher end cards is clearly favorable. It's like asking whether you'd rather have a roll of quarters or a ten dollar bill.

Again you are correct! I probably should consolidate my lower end to upper end...but I am not much of a seller (time constraints mainly)...but like buying! I would like to think that I can buy Ohtani and hold for awhile/long term. It is fun following him and collecting his cards. I am hoping for another (or 5) amazing two way years and that he becomes the next Ichiro when it comes to collectors.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

True has given great advice and your fears were my fear, which is why I cashed out this year, albeit a little late. I jumped back in as far as I could with the pricing for Sho's cards at the time. I will work my back into a deeper run, but for now, I have been playing in the margins with other players because it feels as though they are better value/less expensive. Part of that is me being jaded because of what I paid the first time around for Sho's cards.



I love that Bowman Chrome with bag, but then again, I love most of his cards.

Thanks, but that's said, I am wrong all the time! I have a suitcase full of MacKenzie Gore BCAs, though the ink hasn't dried yet

Yeah, when I held past August, it was with the expectations that prices would fall from the euphoria stage. I think you ultimately made the right call selling the registry even if it was a tad past peak. If most of my cost basis hadn't already been covered, I would have sold more too.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Thanks, but that's said, I am wrong all the time! I have a suitcase full of MacKenzie Gore BCAs, though the ink hasn't dried yet

Yeah, when I held past August, it was with the expectations that prices would fall from the euphoria stage. I think you ultimately made the right call selling the registry even if it was a tad past peak. If most of my cost basis hadn't already been covered, I would have sold more too.

HAHAHA, it is funny you mention Gore. The last wax-busting train that I was on was '19 draft and I pulled a boatload of Gore....nevermind that it was all second-year stuff.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

HAHAHA, it is funny you mention Gore. The last wax-busting train that I was on was '19 draft and I pulled a boatload of Gore....nevermind that it was all second-year stuff.

I've been an adamant grump and have continued buying. I now own six of the 25 orange 1st BCAs. Not everything can bounce back like Ohtani I guess!

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Thanks, but that's said, I am wrong all the time! I have a suitcase full of MacKenzie Gore BCAs, though the ink hasn't dried yet

Yeah, when I held past August, it was with the expectations that prices would fall from the euphoria stage. I think you ultimately made the right call selling the registry even if it was a tad past peak. If most of my cost basis hadn't already been covered, I would have sold more too.

Is the goal to cover your cost basis by flipping (and free riding the rest of your holdings)?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Is the goal to cover your cost basis by flipping (and free riding the rest of your holdings)?

Not with every player, but in 2018 I was seriously spending 30-40% of my base paycheck on Ohtani, especially post-TJ. I just felt the need to recover that cost given the extreme investment made. Having a zero cost basis has allowed me to be much more objective with his cards - we're all human.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Not with every player, but in 2018 I was seriously spending 30-40% of my base paycheck on Ohtani, especially post-TJ. I just felt the need to recover that cost given the extreme investment made. Having a zero cost basis has allowed me to be much more objective with his cards - we're all human.

Wow, so you are a real risk taker! And with Ohtani you hit the jackpot...nice job!

[HarryLime]

TrueBlue is very wise but not everyone has TrueBluebux.

The way the hobby is structured right now, if you're willing to put in some work (some might call it fun) even a filthy plebian living outside the castle walls, like myself, can grab at least one low-serial numbered, pedigreed, RC card for each player. After that, I try and find gems in the rough.

It's mostly about timing (duh!). For instance, now would probably be a good time to go after any 2021 Heritage card you want that hasn't been "outed." Or, just in general, the year's early releases as most focus on the current releases and the offseason.

Another thing that I would say most collectors overlook is just how enormous the selection of cards there are. I recently found a subset of cards by a manufacturer that is wildly popular among a very small niche in the hobby. I'd say 30% of the cards fly by under the radar while the others go for thousands. Who knows. It's probably just two guys throwing haymakers.

But my point is, if you think you've seen everything from, say, 2018, you haven't. Get out there on eBay and do work.

(and get TrueBluebux)

Arthur

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Wow, so you are a real risk taker! And with Ohtani you hit the jackpot...nice job!

Yes and no. I'm a fourth generation Japanese and Ichiro was my hero growing up. I recognized his talent and ceiling with a good understanding of the market, but I was also prepared to go down with the ship as a pure PC collection. I was not about to miss another Ichiro.

[HunterConnorMom]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

This is a nice card and I wish I had one! My issue with this card is that it is a SP but sells for the price of a SSP (anyone know the print run?).


The other cards you suggested are in my wheelhouse and I own a copy or 2 of each.

Not sure on variation print run but you would need to make some assumptions with help from this link:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.car...variations/amp

Only in hobby boxes and auto superfractor of variation is 1:67,785 packs x 13 subject autos = 881,205 packs. Odds to hit a variation base are 1:133 packs. If you assume the total packs above for hobby at 881,205 packs / 133 / 15 total variations = 442 variations per player.

Not sure if this is correct though. Online PSA report is currently 104 ohtani cards graded unsure about Beckett or others pop reports.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by HunterConnorMom

Not sure on variation print run but you would need to make some assumptions with help from this link:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.car...variations/amp

Only in hobby boxes and auto superfractor of variation is 1:67,785 packs x 13 subject autos = 881,205 packs. Odds to hit a variation base are 1:133 packs. If you assume the total packs above for hobby at 881,205 packs / 133 / 15 total variations = 442 variations per player.

Not sure if this is correct though. Online PSA report is currently 104 ohtani cards graded unsure about Beckett or others pop reports.

If you are correct that would put the production in line between most SP's in the thousands and most SSP's in the hundreds....so maybe it is a SSP. Can anyone else chime in whether this card is SP or SSP?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

If you are correct that would put the production in line between most SP's in the thousands and most SSP's in the hundreds....so maybe it is a SSP. Can anyone else chime in whether this card is SP or SSP?

It's a couple thousand-ish if I recall from release. It only gets SSP dollars cause the base counterpart is going for a lot.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

It's a couple thousand-ish if I recall from release. It only gets SSP dollars cause the base counterpart is going for a lot.

That was my impression is that the print run was that of a SP...so in my opinion its a great card, but overpriced compared to other SP's and SSP's. But then again it may be priced correctly due to demand.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

TrueBlue is very wise but not everyone has TrueBluebux.

The way the hobby is structured right now, if you're willing to put in some work (some might call it fun) even a filthy plebian living outside the castle walls, like myself, can grab at least one low-serial numbered, pedigreed, RC card for each player. After that, I try and find gems in the rough.

It's mostly about timing (duh!). For instance, now would probably be a good time to go after any 2021 Heritage card you want that hasn't been "outed." Or, just in general, the year's early releases as most focus on the current releases and the offseason.

Another thing that I would say most collectors overlook is just how enormous the selection of cards there are. I recently found a subset of cards by a manufacturer that is wildly popular among a very small niche in the hobby. I'd say 30% of the cards fly by under the radar while the others go for thousands. Who knows. It's probably just two guys throwing haymakers.

But my point is, if you think you've seen everything from, say, 2018, you haven't. Get out there on eBay and do work.

(and get TrueBluebux)

Arthur

I didn't get the 5% email for TrueBux, but I want in!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

TrueBlue is very wise but not everyone has TrueBluebux.

The way the hobby is structured right now, if you're willing to put in some work (some might call it fun) even a filthy plebian living outside the castle walls, like myself, can grab at least one low-serial numbered, pedigreed, RC card for each player. After that, I try and find gems in the rough.

It's mostly about timing (duh!). For instance, now would probably be a good time to go after any 2021 Heritage card you want that hasn't been "outed." Or, just in general, the year's early releases as most focus on the current releases and the offseason.

Another thing that I would say most collectors overlook is just how enormous the selection of cards there are. I recently found a subset of cards by a manufacturer that is wildly popular among a very small niche in the hobby. I'd say 30% of the cards fly by under the radar while the others go for thousands. Who knows. It's probably just two guys throwing haymakers.

But my point is, if you think you've seen everything from, say, 2018, you haven't. Get out there on eBay and do work.

(and get TrueBluebux)

Arthur

+1 this hobby is so crazy that you just need to hit just 2-3 cards of the right players. Wander Franco BCA base was as low as $350 in 2019.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

+1 this hobby is so crazy that you just need to hit just 2-3 cards of the right players. Wander Franco BCA base was as low as $350 in 2019.

There is a guy up in Canada who chased Ohtani for MVP for much of the year and his base prices almost seem suppressed in comparison to other mvp-caliber players. Not complaining, cause I like it, but room to run for sure.

[Mister2Bits]

All good points.

I find myself moving in and out of different subsets of cards as they become less favorable among the crowds. Flagship & Parallels --> Heritage Actions & Errors --> 2nd Year Flagship Parallels --> Chrome Refractors--> Ginter --> Stadium Club Refractors & #'d Inserts --> 3rd year Flagship Parallels --> Chrome Refractors --> Back to Heritage --> Oh sh!t Beam Team Refractors --> Need more Flagship Camos

I've been buying so much lately but trying to avoid trap products that don't have historical significance, ignoring all base and base RC (especially graded base).

It's been really fun finding hidden pockets of value over time. You'd be surprised the type of deals you can find if you're vigilant and narrow enough.

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

A raw hand on helmet SSP is at over $1,600 with a day to go. A PSA8 and a raw from one month ago also did over $2,000 .I think a leader has emerged from the pack.

I had never even seen that card.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

There is a guy up in Canada who chased Ohtani for MVP for much of the year and his base prices almost seem suppressed in comparison to other mvp-caliber players. Not complaining, cause I like it, but room to run for sure.

There's definitely room to grow. At the time, I thought Topps went overboard on including him in so many sets, but I look at today's releases and it's tame in contrast. I think many people are beginning to invest in Ohtani as a person as well as a baseball player. Very few people on Earth that hone their craft to that level of discipline.

[tblood]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

As you can see over the last 3 months, lower-end/non-rare has taken a dive while high-end/rare has stayed relatively stable or even increased in some examples (like the hand on helmet SSP). A few of us actually predicted this nuance (scroll back a handful of pages) and recommended selling low-end/non-rare and consolidating upward. While you missed the boat, I would still not deviate from this strategy. Hype and price increases start from the top-down.



Gun to head, if I had to choose a sub $300 card, I would be buying raw '18 Heritage Low Action RCs. Some will make the weak argument that these are inserts due to it being an "action" SP, but it is clearly a classic Heritage image that is "action" only by categorization. It is also the same image as the Heritage Low ROA that was a huge chase card in spring of '18 (nostalgia factor). At one point PSA 10s were eclipsing $1K before his injury. If Ohtani performs, I see us revisiting that price point with raw prices on the coat tail. PR is ~2,300 range if my recall is correct. It's SP enough to not be over-diluted on the way up.

Originally Posted by HarryLime

This PSA 8 sold for over $2100.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/20370701034...sAAOSwjVdhlzCt

If I were getting in now, having just looked at the sales and prices, I'd say basically any Ohtani SP for auction is a good buy. PSA 10s of his Warm Up Jersey ($200+) and With Bat ($400+) are just crazy to me. I think those were more expensive two months ago.

If it were me, I'd be going after a PSA 9 Batting for ~$1100. Warm Up Jersey, With Bat, and Hand on Helmet all kind of look like the same card just with varying degrees of difficulty and price. The Batting SSP looks like no other Ohtani SP and is a beautiful shot of his follow through from an elevated position. It's also as rare as Ohtani SP RCs get.

Arthur

No love from two of the boards big names for either the Update white jersey or SC pitching SSP’s? I think I understand all of the knocks against them but I love Ohtani as a pitcher and these are two of the only pitching variations out there.

If SC keeps improving and expanding the way it has the last few years, I won’t be surprised if it overtakes Heritage as a brand in terms of popularity in 5-10yrs. Hopefully that happens and swings some desirability toward the SSP!


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[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by tblood

No love from two of the boards big names for either the Update white jersey or SC pitching SSP’s? I think I understand all of the knocks against them but I love Ohtani as a pitcher and these are two of the only pitching variations out there.

If SC keeps improving and expanding the way it has the last few years, I won’t be surprised if it overtakes Heritage as a brand in terms of popularity in 5-10yrs. Hopefully that happens and swings some desirability toward the SSP!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I hunt for smaller fish these days, but I love that White Jersey card and that SC pitching might be a top 3 card for me in terms of eye appeal.

[edz86]

Originally Posted by tblood

No love from two of the boards big names for either the Update white jersey or SC pitching SSP’s? I think I understand all of the knocks against them but I love Ohtani as a pitcher and these are two of the only pitching variations out there.

If SC keeps improving and expanding the way it has the last few years, I won’t be surprised if it overtakes Heritage as a brand in terms of popularity in 5-10yrs. Hopefully that happens and swings some desirability toward the SSP!


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Those two rc SSPs you have mentioned are the only variations I have in terms of his rc cards (they are both raw...would like to have them graded but it's difficult being based in Australia). Unfortunately I have missed the boat on the others since they are now out of my price range

[tblood]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

I hunt for smaller fish these days, but I love that White Jersey card and that SC pitching might be a top 3 card for me in terms of eye appeal.

Great to hear another vote for both!

The SC looks like it’s one of the smaller fish these days. The last one that sold in mid-November was posted at $275 and accepted an offer. I don’t even see one for sale at the moment.


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[tblood]

Originally Posted by edz86

Those two rc SSPs you have mentioned are the only variations I have in terms of his rc cards (they are both raw...would like to have them graded but it's difficult being based in Australia). Unfortunately I have missed the boat on the others since they are now out of my price range

They are two good ones to have!

Double check the surface on the back of the SC before you send it to get graded (if you decide to). I have seen a few with very faint blemishes that are easy to miss at first glance.


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[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by tblood

No love from two of the boards big names for either the Update white jersey or SC pitching SSP’s? I think I understand all of the knocks against them but I love Ohtani as a pitcher and these are two of the only pitching variations out there.

If SC keeps improving and expanding the way it has the last few years, I won’t be surprised if it overtakes Heritage as a brand in terms of popularity in 5-10yrs. Hopefully that happens and swings some desirability toward the SSP!


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That card sucks!



There's one in the BST section for sale, fyi