Are we in the early 90s again!

[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by Skeely

PSA's opinion is only worth a darn to anyone right now cause its making people money. If the market crashes there opinion will become worthless in a second.

I think many also like the encapsulation which would continue and you know the card is protected + they identify flaws and as another poster stated their rate is still very good compared to misses.

Also the set registry guys will still buy up stuff.

In your opinion if the market crashes would you see graded items rebounding quicker/ by a higher percentage or?

[jared6180]

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

An interesting take on what I said, theres some truth to your response but all I was attempting to say was that with the overprinting that Graded cards such as rookies and stuff will still maintain better value than just the out of the box base that people are selling for ridiculous prices.

I do agree that they will also drop but I think they will recover better, just look at the graded cards from the junk era much higher prices

The graded cards from the junk era are higher priced partly BECAUSE there were no TPGs at the time. Junk era cards sat in packs with gum, had manufacturing issues that produced more bad cuts, bad centering, more fish eyes, poor paper stock etc that directly impacted the cards before they even came out of the packs. Once out of the packs they were tossed into boxes with no sleeves/protection in lots of cases. They were rubber banded together, tossed into shoe boxes etc, again impacting the condition. The cards were just not protected OR manufactured to the standards they generally are today. All of that to say there will be FAR fewer PSA 10s of 1983 Topps Tony Gwynns, 1990 Topps Frank Thomas' for example than 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout, 2020 Topps Luis Roberts etc.

In short it is almost an apples and oranges comparison between 1988 Topps and 2018 Topps.

[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by jared6180

The graded cards from the junk era are higher priced partly BECAUSE there were no TPGs at the time. Junk era cards sat in packs with gum, had manufacturing issues that produced more bad cuts, bad centering, more fish eyes, poor paper stock etc that directly impacted the cards before they even came out of the packs. Once out of the packs they were tossed into boxes with no sleeves/protection in lots of cases. They were rubber banded together, tossed into shoe boxes etc, again impacting the condition. The cards were just not protected OR manufactured to the standards they generally are today. All of that to say there will be FAR fewer PSA 10s of 1983 Topps Tony Gwynns, 1990 Topps Frank Thomas' for example than 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout, 2020 Topps Luis Roberts etc.

In short it is almost an apples and oranges comparison between 1988 Topps and 2018 Topps.

That's a fair point that I had not fully considered

[REGGIE206]

Back in the 90’s, I can walk into a 7-11, many gas stations, Costco, grocery stores, and mini-marts to buy sports cards. There were also so many options for local card shops. Today, I can barely find any wax on the shelves at Target. I do agree that sports cards are now getting over-produced again.. but in my opinion, this is no where close to the 90’s.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

I think many also like the encapsulation which would continue and you know the card is protected + they identify flaws and as another poster stated their rate is still very good compared to misses.

Also the set registry guys will still buy up stuff.

In your opinion if the market crashes would you see graded items rebounding quicker/ by a higher percentage or?

Ill premise this by again saying this is only if the market crashes cause i think there is ways that the market could stay strong without the tpgs taking a hit. But i think if the market crashes everything from a certian time frame will come into major questioning once there is some clarity in the sense that people arent looking the other way becuase of the money like they are right now. those cards that are questioned will drop to the price of a raw card or maybe slightly more than one and will stay there until they are either regraded or broken out of the slab. I would love to see psa's market crash and then them start training people to catch altered cards. And then we could watch everybody crack and resubmit there cards from that time frame and we would finally see what the real rate of trimmed cards was. I might be wrong but i believe that if everything from the lest ten years was cracked and submitted to a non biased company that could identify altered cards we would see an altered percentage of at least 5 percent if not more. The hard truth is we will probably never know the exact number and psa certianly isnt going to tell us.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by REGGIE206

Back in the 90’s, I can walk into a 7-11, many gas stations, Costco, grocery stores, and mini-marts to buy sports cards. There were also so many options for local card shops. Today, I can barely find any wax on the shelves at Target. I do agree that sports cards are now getting over-produced again.. but in my opinion, this is no where close to the 90’s.

agreed. but if they keep upping the print run every year we will get there and i dont see topps looking at this from any standpoint other than lets print til we cant anymore. To say we are on a bubble thats going to burst tommorow is a reach but there are reasons to believe we will get there.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

Good post but now i really desire to know what your graded card is!

Nothing huge.

2019 Chronicles Prestige Zion Williamson PSA 9

Again, he gave me a great bundle deal with the boxes I bought, the supplies and the singles. If I took everything it was pretty much pay for the boxes and get the supplies and singles for free. Could not complain.

Originally Posted by Skeely

I see your point of view but i am off the opinion that everything graded in the past five to ten years at least of graded stuff will essentially drop to the point of being worth the same of a raw card if we see a market crash. PSA and bgs's opinions right now are as trustworthy as if i had my card graded by my neighborhoods local crackhead at the current moment. Thats not to say that those cards cant be cracked out and resubmitted to an improved more turstworthy psa or bgs or a diffrent tpg tha could take over and regain that worth though.

I don’t know if they will ever fall to the point of raw. GMA prices are still above raw. You at least have to add in the protection value at that point. They may fall when the bubble pops, but not to raw values.

Originally Posted by Skeely

I would say that there number is higher than 1 percent at this point. Also comparing psa to other companies is a dangerous game because most other companies errors dont have the type of possible repercutions that psa's does. PSA's errors can cost people major money if they find out they have a psa card thats slabbed and altered and has already passed through multiple peoples hands since grading. God forbid a massive card comes back as altered after a million dollar sale. PSA's errors also take a lot longer to resolve than most others. If i need to get a psa card reslabbed due to there error it can take a month plus just to get it back when it is psas error to begin with. If a restraunt messes up my food i can get it changed in twenty mins, if my insurance company messes up a form i can get ahold of them and have it changed within a day or two at most. You cant look at just error rate. You need to take into account the consequences of said errors.

To your point of people buying the cards for protection. I can see that happening but its hard to see people consistently paying 25 dollars minimum for a case. Also at that point psa would no longer be a grading company it would be a case company. Im still suprised that a company hasnt come in with no grading but just a clean case with a nice looking label. People would pay a reasonable price for that i would think.

I completely agree, and as a collector I want them to improve. Maybe change in management will help that. To say it is more than 1% of their cards are fraudulent is excessive though. PSA has graded 40MM cards. That means the graded 400,000 fake/trimmed/altered cards without marking them as such. I don’t buy that, it is far less IMO.

Originally Posted by Skeely

PSA's opinion is only worth a darn to anyone right now cause its making people money. If the market crashes there opinion will become worthless in a second.

That’s not true. I appreciate their opinion, but I also understand it is just that. We all ask our collector friends what they think of the condition of cards we have or are about to buy. When I go to a TPG, that is all I am doing, except now I am paying him $25 for that opinion AND for them to encase the card for me. It is far from perfect, but when you understand it is only an opinion of someone who looks at hundreds of cards a day, then you will be better off.

[Donkaylove]

Originally Posted by actionbryan

card shows post covid assuming the hobby is still full steam ahead are gonna be crazy. that thought just occurred to me for the first time

todays show was the biggest we ever had--no doubt, no distancing whatsoever, butt2butt throwing bows, totally stupid money getting thrown out, prices in every extreme, people pouncing on the new dealers before they even set up, just ugliness, but money to be made if you sell, obviously.

A signifigant item of note--the damn phones. Nobody knows prices--buying or selling today. two dealers said they hadnt updated their prices yet--ur not selling crap dude, pass! More bubble signs today fer sure, no rookie should command more than 20. How much is Herbert going to succeed in the next five years with mahomie in the same division? I saw herberts for 60? It just saddened me. Mahomes is down, Durant/Harden up, Brady/Jordan up as usual, not much for luka/trae/ja today, No mosaic or draft prizm interest--those sat all day. And, Zero/No Interest in Hoops rc's, as usual.

[dashcol]

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

I think many also like the encapsulation which would continue and you know the card is protected + they identify flaws and as another poster stated their rate is still very good compared to misses.

Also the set registry guys will still buy up stuff.

In your opinion if the market crashes would you see graded items rebounding quicker/ by a higher percentage or?

Forgot about the registry aspect! Another reason why people will still flock to PSA. Being the top of those registries comes with some perks.

Originally Posted by REGGIE206

Back in the 90’s, I can walk into a 7-11, many gas stations, Costco, grocery stores, and mini-marts to buy sports cards. There were also so many options for local card shops. Today, I can barely find any wax on the shelves at Target. I do agree that sports cards are now getting over-produced again.. but in my opinion, this is no where close to the 90’s.

Come on Reggie, you know better. Just because you can’t get them doesn’t mean their not there.

We are back to having them in many places:
LCS, online, Target, Walmart, Meijer, Walgreens, CVS, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Grocery Stores, Barnes and Nobles, BAM, Five Below, Big Lots, and for the first time I saw some packs at a Parker’s the other day.

People are just beating you to them.

Originally Posted by Skeely

Ill premise this by again saying this is only if the market crashes cause i think there is ways that the market could stay strong without the tpgs taking a hit. But i think if the market crashes everything from a certian time frame will come into major questioning once there is some clarity in the sense that people arent looking the other way becuase of the money like they are right now. those cards that are questioned will drop to the price of a raw card or maybe slightly more than one and will stay there until they are either regraded or broken out of the slab. I would love to see psa's market crash and then them start training people to catch altered cards. And then we could watch everybody crack and resubmit there cards from that time frame and we would finally see what the real rate of trimmed cards was. I might be wrong but i believe that if everything from the lest ten years was cracked and submitted to a non biased company that could identify altered cards we would see an altered percentage of at least 5 percent if not more. The hard truth is we will probably never know the exact number and psa certianly isnt going to tell us.

I would like to see a correction in PSA as well, and maybe a bubble pop will do it. 10s need to fall and 9s need to rise. A nine is an almost perfect card, people should be willing to pay more for those than they do and a bubble pop may help do that.

[WizardofOz1982]

Originally Posted by Skeely

[/B]

agreed. but if they keep upping the print run every year we will get there and i dont see topps looking at this from any standpoint other than lets print til we cant anymore. To say we are on a bubble thats going to burst tommorow is a reach but there are reasons to believe we will get there.

Print run on 2021 Series 1 base is ~650k per card. That's not peak 1991 Topps at 1.5 million per but it's not far off of the 1987-1990 runs either.

[WizardofOz1982]

Originally Posted by jared6180

The graded cards from the junk era are higher priced partly BECAUSE there were no TPGs at the time. Junk era cards sat in packs with gum, had manufacturing issues that produced more bad cuts, bad centering, more fish eyes, poor paper stock etc that directly impacted the cards before they even came out of the packs. Once out of the packs they were tossed into boxes with no sleeves/protection in lots of cases. They were rubber banded together, tossed into shoe boxes etc, again impacting the condition. The cards were just not protected OR manufactured to the standards they generally are today. All of that to say there will be FAR fewer PSA 10s of 1983 Topps Tony Gwynns, 1990 Topps Frank Thomas' for example than 2011 Topps Update Mike Trout, 2020 Topps Luis Roberts etc.

In short it is almost an apples and oranges comparison between 1988 Topps and 2018 Topps.

This is extremely true and why I've been buying PSA10s of 80s and 90s guys like Bagwell, Chipper, Sosa, Sheffield, etc. and PSA9s of others like Gwynn, Sandberg, and Boggs.

Juan Soto 2018 Topps Update: 23,227 total graded, 16,020 PSA10s
Ronald Acuna Jr 2018 Topps Update: 26,235 total graded, 17,404 PSA10s
Fernando Tatis Jr 2019 Topps Series 2: 18,433 total graded, 11,744 PSA10s

There is a 10 million card backlog right now at PSA. How many of them do you think are the above three cards? 5% (quite conservative I think) would be 500,000 of those three cards and with gem rates on all three at approx 65% that's 300,000-350,000 more PSA10s of the three of them combined. I just don't see that as a sustainable market.


Mike Trout 2011 Topps Update: 9,189 total graded, 5,235 PSA10s

Jeff Bagwell 1991 Topps Traded: 6,568 total graded, 1,543 PSA10s

Chipper Jones 1991 Topps: 10,541 total graded, 5,496 PSA10s in the most overproduced set of all time at 1.5 million copies per card

Tom Glavine 1988 Topps: 3,602 total, 1,163 PSA10s (not the most comparable player for submission popularity but still)

Tony Gwynn 1983 Topps: 21,537 total, 675 PSA10s

Kirby Puckett 1985 Topps: 8,926 total, 433 PSA10s

The Trout might be the only post 2010 card that holds value because 2011 print run was very low.

You can literally add up the PSA10 pop of all Bagwell RCs combined and not get to the individual Tatis, Acuna, or Soto pops for 1 card.

Originally Posted by dashcol

I would like to see a correction in PSA as well, and maybe a bubble pop will do it. 10s need to fall and 9s need to rise. A nine is an almost perfect card, people should be willing to pay more for those than they do and a bubble pop may help do that.

There's some truth here too. The only two Bagwell RCs I don't have in a PSA10 are the Bowman and Studio. There are only 16 PSA10 Studios and I haven't seen one for sale. A PSA10 for the Bowman is $250+ while I bought a PSA9 for $13 shipped a couple days ago. There is no reason for that kind of pricing disparity if it was just about the quality of the card.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by Uwfootball1

Yes live card shows are gonna be great once we can/are willing to go again post covid!

If your state (or province) is not allowing shows, I feel really bad for you.

Florida has had shows for months, and no issues. Have never been more proud to call Florida home, watching how they’ve handled all of this.

[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by Donkaylove

todays show was the biggest we ever had--no doubt, no distancing whatsoever, butt2butt throwing bows, totally stupid money getting thrown out, prices in every extreme, people pouncing on the new dealers before they even set up, just ugliness, but money to be made if you sell, obviously.

A signifigant item of note--the damn phones. Nobody knows prices--buying or selling today. two dealers said they hadnt updated their prices yet--ur not selling crap dude, pass! More bubble signs today fer sure, no rookie should command more than 20. How much is Herbert going to succeed in the next five years with mahomie in the same division? I saw herberts for 60? It just saddened me. Mahomes is down, Durant/Harden up, Brady/Jordan up as usual, not much for luka/trae/ja today, No mosaic or draft prizm interest--those sat all day. And, Zero/No Interest in Hoops rc's, as usual.

Love the guys now when I was last at a show that told me he had to check ebay lisitings for his card so he could give me a price. I continued on my way lol

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by Donkaylove

todays show was the biggest we ever had--no doubt, no distancing whatsoever, butt2butt throwing bows, totally stupid money getting thrown out, prices in every extreme, people pouncing on the new dealers before they even set up, just ugliness, but money to be made if you sell, obviously.

A signifigant item of note--the damn phones. Nobody knows prices--buying or selling today. two dealers said they hadnt updated their prices yet--ur not selling crap dude, pass! More bubble signs today fer sure, no rookie should command more than 20. How much is Herbert going to succeed in the next five years with mahomie in the same division? I saw herberts for 60? It just saddened me. Mahomes is down, Durant/Harden up, Brady/Jordan up as usual, not much for luka/trae/ja today, No mosaic or draft prizm interest--those sat all day. And, Zero/No Interest in Hoops rc's, as usual.

This isn’t 2013 man. I get your agenda here, but this reads like someone who thinks it’s 2013.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by dashcol

Nothing huge.

2019 Chronicles Prestige Zion Williamson PSA 9

Again, he gave me a great bundle deal with the boxes I bought, the supplies and the singles. If I took everything it was pretty much pay for the boxes and get the supplies and singles for free. Could not complain.



I don’t know if they will ever fall to the point of raw. GMA prices are still above raw. You at least have to add in the protection value at that point. They may fall when the bubble pops, but not to raw values.



I completely agree, and as a collector I want them to improve. Maybe change in management will help that. To say it is more than 1% of their cards are fraudulent is excessive though. PSA has graded 40MM cards. That means the graded 400,000 fake/trimmed/altered cards without marking them as such. I don’t buy that, it is far less IMO.



That’s not true. I appreciate their opinion, but I also understand it is just that. We all ask our collector friends what they think of the condition of cards we have or are about to buy. When I go to a TPG, that is all I am doing, except now I am paying him $25 for that opinion AND for them to encase the card for me. It is far from perfect, but when you understand it is only an opinion of someone who looks at hundreds of cards a day, then you will be better off.

The protection value is the only reason i assume it might be slightly above raw. I can appreciate your opinion that its not more than one percent but i would probably disagree. Regardless though i doubt we ever get to see that number so its a mute point for anyone to really try it debate cause there is no direct evidence either way. As far as PSA just being an opinion, many people dont recognize that. They recognize as do i that the grade is just an opinion but they dont recognize that that grade could be a grade given to a card that is altered. I accept that their grade is an opinion but i dont accept the fact that i cant take them grading a card as a universal standard that it is not a reprint and is not altered. Also when i ask my collecto friends about condition there opinion doesnt make the card go up by 3x value.

I expect a professional grading company to be able to catch altered cards and i dont know why anybody else wouldnt. I can deal with mistakes like mislabeling and stuff but i cant deal with not being able to trust that our hobbies main grading companies cant catch an altered card. To me thats unnaceptable.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by WizardofOz1982

Print run on 2021 Series 1 base is ~650k per card. That's not peak 1991 Topps at 1.5 million per but it's not far off of the 1987-1990 runs either.

Agreed. I do think the parallels and autos and such buy us a little bit more leeeway this time around on print run but not much. But we are close to the breaking point and topps simply doesnt care. Topps will gladly print and print until the cards are worth pennies if people continue to buy. And i cant completely blame them. I wish they cared more about our hobbys longevity but as a business Why stop printing if there are people out there who will eat it all up.

[KhalDrogo]

Same delusions day after day. The game changed. It has passed many of you by because you refused to believe it was real. Learn to deal with it or go away. We are in a new world, and it’s awesome.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Same delusions day after day. The game changed. It has passed many of you by because you refused to believe it was real. Learn to deal with it or go away. We are in a new world, and it’s awesome.

Realizing the topps is increasing print run every year and made an even bigger jump this year than past isnt delusion its fact. Same with the fact that topps is pumping out five to ten new products a year while keeping the same products going as well. Its also a fact that our supposed proffesional grading companies are missing altered cards. Delusion would not be seeing these things and at least questioning the direction the hobby is headed.

I would like to collect cards for many years to come so pardon me if i dont think a few years of making a lot of money of cards and then watching this all crash is acceptable. This is an awesome new world until we watch our collections that we plan on using as a retirment or to pass on to family turn to dust in front of our eyes. Although i dont plan on selling msot of my stuff til the day i die and will still enjoy it even if it loses value i would prefer it not be worthless when the time to sell comes because other people didnt pay attention to the clear issues because they like that there pockets were getting lined by a untrusthworthy grading company along with a card company that has no problem printing us into a major problem.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Skeely

Realizing the topps is increasing print run every year and made an even bigger jump this year than past isnt delusion its fact. Same with the fact that topps is pumping out five to ten new products a year while keeping the same products going as well. Its also a fact that our supposed proffesional grading companies are missing altered cards. Delusion would not be seeing these things and at least questioning the direction the hobby is headed.

I would like to collect cards for many years to come so pardon me if i dont think a few years of making a lot of money of cards and then watching this all crash is acceptable. This is an awesome new world until we watch our collections that we plan on using as a retirment or to pass on to family turn to dust in front of our eyes. Although i dont plan on selling msot of my stuff til the day i die and will still enjoy it even if it loses value i would prefer it not be worthless when the time to sell comes because other people didnt pay attention to the clear issues because they like that there pockets were getting lined by a untrusthworthy grading company along with a card company that has no problem printing us into a major problem.

You’re right. All my 90s MJ will turn to dust because Topps made a lot of 2021 Series 1.

[Skeely]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

You’re right. All my 90s MJ will turn to dust because Topps made a lot of 2021 Series 1.

We both know you got my point.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Skeely

We both know you got my point.

What you posted is the exact same garbage that people have been posting for the last three years. Wrong then. Wrong now.

[kevbojones]

Junk Slab Era

[Uwfootball1]

Originally Posted by Skeely

Realizing the topps is increasing print run every year and made an even bigger jump this year than past isnt delusion its fact. Same with the fact that topps is pumping out five to ten new products a year while keeping the same products going as well. Its also a fact that our supposed proffesional grading companies are missing altered cards. Delusion would not be seeing these things and at least questioning the direction the hobby is headed.

Agreed!

[sgbernard]

Originally Posted by Skeely

Agreed. I do think the parallels and autos and such buy us a little bit more leeeway this time around on print run but not much. But we are close to the breaking point and topps simply doesnt care. Topps will gladly print and print until the cards are worth pennies if people continue to buy. And i cant completely blame them. I wish they cared more about our hobbys longevity but as a business Why stop printing if there are people out there who will eat it all up.

Agree with this: the parallels and autos are fixed and in fact get much harder to hit as the print runs go up. That's very different from the big late 80s/90s sets. Remember, the limited run versions (Tiffany, Desert Shield) from those sets still have value the regular overproduced sets don't have. That's probably a better comparator. I'm happy with my topps Tiffany 1991 chipper rookie, who cares if there are 1.5 mill base of the same card.

[RogerGodahell]

So many tears from people who sold their cards off early or missed the boat. Now they want back in with $5 packs and $10K cards.