NBA Top Shot - High Risk, High Reward?

[b2k1121]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

This will be a nice easy one for collectors to chase

And makes the preorder packs a little more exciting at least.

[Wildcat55]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

There’s a difference between locking in a profit margin versus having proverbial paper hands. The term paper hands deals with people who when the first sign of trouble happens, no matter what their cost was, they’ll sell. So if they bought an AD SS at 250 and the price cratered to 200, they’d sell because they don’t wanna lose it all instead of waiting it out to see what happens.

Having a set plan for profit margin isn’t having paper hands because you wouldn’t buy a moment, and then freak out after 2 moments get listed for a lower price than it was at in the previous hour.

Very true...however it’s also defined as someone who panic sells for a tiny profit too early and misses out on bigger gains. Or more specifically, they sell for whatever reason (gain or loss) instead of holding ‘no matter the outcome’. Just the opposite of diamond hands. Many people are termed paper hands when they simply get out too early or panic sell a dip, but still profit. It’s a pop culture term so it’s loosely defined anyways...

But yeah, I agree overall.

[YuckyCarp]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

I’ve made a lot and lost a lot. I’m still significantly up but I was double where I am now. I’m just learning as I go which is all you can do. This wasn’t intended to be a stock market clone but....that’s exactly what it is. And that’s what draws me in. I’m not a long term thinker when it comes to money. Even in actual stocks, 80% of my money is tied up in high volatility. I know it’s not “smart” but it’s what I enjoy doing. It’s how I get my gambling fix.

That being said, my approach for the near-future (until it inevitably fails) is to chase the flavor of the day. Which is weird because I do just the opposite in the physical market. 90% of my money is tied up in seeing stars. And once that hits a peak, I’ll move it into the next challenge. Thinking simple usually works.

Is your plan to hold the Seeing Stars moments until just before the end of the challenge then flip them? I just joined Top Shot last week and that seems like one of the most sure-thing plays.

In previous challenges, did the prices for the moments included hit a peak in the days just prior to the end of the challenge window?

[Vinny1984]

Originally Posted by YuckyCarp

Is your plan to hold the Seeing Stars moments until just before the end of the challenge then flip them? I just joined Top Shot last week and that seems like one of the most sure-thing plays.

In previous challenges, did the prices for the moments included hit a peak in the days just prior to the end of the challenge window?

That’s the plan. Just need to stick to it and that’s the part I struggle with. I’ve completed the entire set and won’t be selling those. I have about 20 extras that I plan to flip.

If you don’t see me posting here anymore, it’s because I lost it all and Topshot is stupid anyways.

[Eckstein197]

Derrick rose the gift moment starting to climb up again. Up 50 bucks since yesterday

[YuckyCarp]

Originally Posted by Vinny1984

That’s the plan. Just need to stick to it and that’s the part I struggle with. I’ve completed the entire set and won’t be selling those. I have about 20 extras that I plan to flip.

If you don’t see me posting here anymore, it’s because I lost it all and Topshot is stupid anyways.

What are the prices for previous challenge completion reward moments?

Reading through the thread this morning, I'm surprised to see that so many people are low on the Kevin Durant reward moment. Are people low on it because it won't actually be that rare? Or because of the fact that it is a reward moment and that devalues it somehow?

And sorry if this is obvious and I'm missing something, but what is the Lebron that people are talking about as a reward? I haven't seen anything about that on Top Shot.

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by ffwiseguy

And now we see the reason for the Conley SS being minted:
https://www.nbatopshot.com/challenge...0-a96ed7190983

Requirement is 5 base moments /35k that haven't been released yet.

Another 20 day challenge. I don't like this becoming the norm, but will be interesting to see how the market dynamics shift with this long of a wait with moments that are non all stars and to 35k

What happened? Did they kill this already?

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by YuckyCarp

What are the prices for previous challenge completion reward moments?

Reading through the thread this morning, I'm surprised to see that so many people are low on the Kevin Durant reward moment. Are people low on it because it won't actually be that rare? Or because of the fact that it is a reward moment and that devalues it somehow?

And sorry if this is obvious and I'm missing something, but what is the Lebron that people are talking about as a reward? I haven't seen anything about that on Top Shot.

The fact that it is a reward doesn't necessarily devalue it but you have to estimate how many people you think will complete the challenge. Past challenges have been about 70% completion rate so I would assume the Durant reward is around /7000. You then have to compare it to Durant moments currently on the market. Durant /7000 is probably worth around $900-1000. So that is the amount you technically should be willing to overpay on the Durant Team All Star moments and we are already pretty close to an overpay of $900 based on what the Durant All Star Team moments should be worth if the challenge didn't exist. It takes a lot of estimating so things can change pretty quick but that is why some people are cautious on it.

As far as the Lebron challenge. It wasn't formally announced but since this is all on blockchain we can see when things are created and there was a Lebron All Star moment created the same time as the Kevin Durant one was. So it is technically speculation but there is a 99% chance that it will require the Lebron all star team moments.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by BosCardGuy

What happened? Did they kill this already?

Everyone accidentally bought the wrong Bam thinking it was for the challenge and were complaining in discord so they took it down temporarily. I think they were planning on having all of the players in the challenge have no current Series 2 base but Bam slipped past them.

[BosCardGuy]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

New challenge just announced for the Mike Conley. It is going to require 5 base moments that are yet to be released.

A lot of lower end collectors were asking for a challenge that they can have the chance to complete. Looks like they got one. As much as I hate challenge overload I think this was a good move.

The Bam Adebayo has been released.

[BosCardGuy]

BWaaahhhh... I'm one of them. I just tried buying a Bam, LOL

[BosCardGuy]

They're not letting the Bam transactions through right now. No worries.

[benz35]

pack drop when? im bored

[Eckstein197]

I am now eligible to withdraw, have most of my dapper tied up in moments but I am eligible to do it

[whodatbeastly16]

Well my Deni is down $100 today. Very tempted to just sell and get out of if. I probably should've sold at $600 I imagine that may be it's peak

[whodatbeastly16]

Well looks like they closed the marketplace, hopefully that stops the freefall. The good news is that there is only about 20-30 Deni moments between the low of today and the high of last night. I could've gotten 630-640 for my moment last night, probably should've just sold. Seems to be way less buyers on the Deni today

[ffwiseguy]

MP is back. Looks like purchase cooldown window is back to 2 hours (according to discord), and they MIGHT have removed the lowest ask designation from the price dropdown.

[whodatbeastly16]

I don't get it, why does there have to be such extremes. Why go straight from 1 minutes to 2 hours? Should've tried 15 or 30 minutes first. Hopefully this will only be for a few hours max

[Vinny1984]

They asked the discord community if they should keep the cool downs and 75% were for keeping it. Assuming 15 minutes will eventually be the standard.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by ffwiseguy

MP is back. Looks like purchase cooldown window is back to 2 hours (according to discord), and they MIGHT have removed the lowest ask designation from the price dropdown.

Wait, what? It’s kind of gross at this point that they’re putting whatever quirks into place they can to encourage rising prices. Fed 2.0.

[rysportguy]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Wait, what? It’s kind of gross at this point that they’re putting whatever quirks into place they can to encourage rising prices. Fed 2.0.

It isn't for rising prices. It is for a functioning market. The entire day there was people reporting they are selling stuff and not seeing the funds in their account. Therefore they can't spend that money. Restrictions are not ideal but lets not act like it was running smoothly without them.

[Mamschler1]

My limit is still 1 minute.... anyone else seeing this?

[whodatbeastly16]

Apparently it was a problem that wasn't supposed to happen, they changed it back

[rifleman69]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Wait, what? It’s kind of gross at this point that they’re putting whatever quirks into place they can to encourage rising prices. Fed 2.0.

Almost like Jerome and Janet are at the helm!

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by rysportguy

It isn't for rising prices. It is for a functioning market. The entire day there was people reporting they are selling stuff and not seeing the funds in their account. Therefore they can't spend that money. Restrictions are not ideal but lets not act like it was running smoothly without them.

Come on. Give me a break. Maybe we can't do 1 minute, but there's no reason we can't do 10.