@NFLALLDAY Coming Soon

[matt roberson]

I finally was able to complete some challenges (only needed three moments a couple cheapies to bur). Actually remembered to log in everyday so I will finally get up to 80 yards this week…. Had a few for Sunday and Thursday too but the ones I didn’t have were the bottle neck.

First week wasn’t worth it for me, this week I waited until after all the challenges were revealed before burning which helped a little. Used two commons on the end of week challenge.

I’ll be playing it by ear week to week. Hopefully they limit pack drops and the mints within the drops to not flood the market and tank values.

I’d like to assume that they learned from their failures on TS, but I am definitely not convinced.

[grade]

WatingALLDAY

[matt roberson]

Drop issues, no way…

Man they suck at this.

[tjforce]

Total botch on the premium packs.

I was in line as soon as the window was supposed to open, got logged out, when I finally got logged back in the new window was open with 19k people in front of me

Topshot all over again

[grade]

WHY SO LONG?

People in line ahead of you:
759
Your estimated wait time:
more than an hour
Packs available as of 02:22 PM CDT:
3,409

[rubendn]

Nice hits in the premium pack. Got lucky.

Tua Legendary /79
Jamel Dean Rare /899
Drake London Triple Badge /10000
Jahan Dotson Triple Badge /10000
Decobie Durant Triple Badge 3/5000
Geno Smith /10000
Sterling Shepard /10000
Byron Murphy /4500

[Brobocop]

Bought the normal pack, got:

Garrett Wilson 3220/10000
Micah Parsons 8490/10000
Allen Robinson II 7997/10000
Jaylen Watson 93/899

Seems like a decent haul.

[natbornkiller]

Derwin James Jr. ROCKBOTTING someone /5k
Micah Parsons /10k
Garrett Wilson /10k
and legendary
Aidan Hutchinson /99

[Brobocop]

Dumb question but does the lower the serial number mean a higher sale price is that concept dead and gone?

[rubendn]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

Dumb question but does the lower the serial number mean a higher sale price is that concept dead and gone?

Definitely.

I sold a Decobie Durant 3/5000 for $49 when the floor was $10.

[cjmccreary]

I mean a 5x floor sale is pretty good so I wouldn't say the concept is dead and gone.

[rubendn]

Originally Posted by cjmccreary

I mean a 5x floor sale is pretty good so I wouldn't say the concept is dead and gone.

Sorry, I meant to say that there definitely is a premium for the lower serial #'s.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by rubendn

Nice hits in the premium pack. Got lucky.

Tua Legendary /79
Jamel Dean Rare /899
Drake London Triple Badge /10000
Jahan Dotson Triple Badge /10000
Decobie Durant Triple Badge 3/5000
Geno Smith /10000
Sterling Shepard /10000
Byron Murphy /4500

Congrats on the legendary!!! That’s awesome

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

Dumb question but does the lower the serial number mean a higher sale price is that concept dead and gone?

Single digit still get you a decent premium, double digit a small sized premium

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by natbornkiller

Derwin James Jr. ROCKBOTTING someone /5k
Micah Parsons /10k
Garrett Wilson /10k
and legendary
Aidan Hutchinson /99

Man a legendary out of standard is the dream, nice hit!

[Eckstein197]

I ripped 2 standards, 8 commons unfortunately. But decent names with London, 2 Derwin, a decently low numbered Evans for the PC

Interesting playbook concept this week. 2 picks for 10 yards each guessing who’s gonna win a certain game. Interesting way to go about it. Glad to see some twists for the playbook

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Eckstein197

I ripped 2 standards, 8 commons unfortunately. But decent names with London, 2 Derwin, a decently low numbered Evans for the PC

Interesting playbook concept this week. 2 picks for 10 yards each guessing who’s gonna win a certain game. Interesting way to go about it. Glad to see some twists for the playbook

-Visiting each day
-Buying 1 moment
-Getting 1 of the 2 games right

gets you to 40 points needed to make burning moments worth it.

Getting both games right puts you 1 challenge away from 60 yards.

[Eckstein197]

Originally Posted by tjforce

-Visiting each day
-Buying 1 moment
-Getting 1 of the 2 games right

gets you to 40 points needed to make burning moments worth it.

Getting both games right puts you 1 challenge away from 60 yards.

And if you get both games right, you can do the Sunday slate for 25 yards. Putting you at 75. Do 2 more challenges and you’ve hit the 100 to get all 5. Lot of ways to get to 100 yards this week

[ninjacookies]

Prices are absolutely down substantially from 2 weeks ago.

You may be able to cite a few exceptions, but even dudes like Mahomes and Rodgers are down more than 30%. Most of the mid end semi star bass are quickly trickling down from the $20-25 range and into the $10-15 mark. This had nothing to do with the pack drop.


If you've done TS before, then you know what this means.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Prices are absolutely down substantially from 2 weeks ago.

You may be able to cite a few exceptions, but even dudes like Mahomes and Rodgers are down more than 30%. Most of the mid end semi star bass are quickly trickling down from the $20-25 range and into the $10-15 mark. This had nothing to do with the pack drop.


If you've done TS before, then you know what this means.

Actually just updated my account value today (moments + cash) and I'm down 12% from 12 days ago (which was pretty much peak). This includes a few challenge reward moments I received, as well as a few sales I've made when my moments became challenge moments.

It only makes sense that individual moment prices will go down. They lose future utility every week of the season that goes by.

The key here is to just not put any real money in this for the long term. It's all free roll for me so wherever they go, I can live with it.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Actually just updated my account value today (moments + cash) and I'm down 12% from 12 days ago (which was pretty much peak). This includes a few challenge reward moments I received, as well as a few sales I've made when my moments became challenge moments.

It only makes sense that individual moment prices will go down. They lose future utility every week of the season that goes by.

The key here is to just not put any real money in this for the long term. It's all free roll for me so wherever they go, I can live with it.

Yep. Essentially just a free roll. The people that will most likely be burned are the ones coming into the space. There's simply no way common moments with high mints will continue to hold value, despite the burning incentives. The only thing propping prices up ATM is the lack of frequent pack drops, which I applaud Dapper for.

The NFT market will also parallel crypto to a degree. A subsequent drop will trigger larger holders to liquidate and hedge.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Yep. Essentially just a free roll. The people that will most likely be burned are the ones coming into the space. There's simply no way common moments with high mints will continue to hold value, despite the burning incentives. The only thing propping prices up ATM is the lack of frequent pack drops, which I applaud Dapper for.

The NFT market will also parallel crypto to a degree. A subsequent drop will trigger larger holders to liquidate and hedge.

They'll have to get creative if they want stuff to hold.

The burning helps, but only in certain situations:

-Right now there are 1,812 Josh Gordon moments than have been burned. This number will just keep getting bigger and bigger.

-Meanwhile, there's 1 moment burned of Mahomes' most common base moment. There's no incentive to burn these, so the population of Mahomes base moments will only go up. The only way that you have a chance to change is to get creative to find ways to get people to burn moments of star players.

I'm not calling it as dead in the water as Top Shot is at the moment, but they'll have to do a lot of things right in order for this project to have sustainable multiyear success.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by tjforce

They'll have to get creative if they want stuff to hold.

The burning helps, but only in certain situations:

-Right now there are 1,812 Josh Gordon moments than have been burned. This number will just keep getting bigger and bigger.

-Meanwhile, there's 1 moment burned of Mahomes' most common base moment. There's no incentive to burn these, so the population of Mahomes base moments will only go up. The only way that you have a chance to change is to get creative to find ways to get people to burn moments of star players.

I'm not calling it as dead in the water as Top Shot is at the moment, but they'll have to do a lot of things right in order for this project to have sustainable multiyear success.

Yup. Additionally, the burning only makes a small dent into the pop because those same burned moments are being replenished by the tiered playbook packs.

I'm not entirely sure how to go about it if I'm Dapper. They've continually stressed the importance of rares in the discord, but majority just can't afford them en masse, or stomach the risk exposure.

The metaverse gentrification is real.

[boxbuster7]

doesn't help that entry to unlock the playbook premium rewards for a pack with 1 moment is $40 (burn 5 $8 moments)

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

doesn't help that entry to unlock the playbook premium rewards for a pack with 1 moment is $40 (burn 5 $8 moments)

Easy answer...

Just don't take that deal.

It starts to be positive EV at the 2 star reward