**Official Luka Doncic Thread**

[Justin7]

Originally Posted by Trout Fan

No drop on the Panini Hoops Teal Explosion PSA 10
Didn’t mean to bid so high but I was preoccupied
watching US Open Tennis and won at just under
2,700. Last sale on Saturday was 1,000 lower
Yikes! Oh well in for the long term.

Quite frankly any Luka rookies under say pop 200 have been selling the same or more, you can't lose. The bubble in prizm base was just that a bubble in prizm base, the market is shaking off some losers.

[RandyC]

Originally Posted by Justin7

Quite frankly any Luka rookies under say pop 200 have been selling the same or more, you can't lose. The bubble in prizm base was just that a bubble in prizm base, the market is shaking off some losers.

Exactly! If you own any serial numbered Luka cards, you are good. Prizm base has always been fools gold. Congrats to those of you who sold for 2K.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by RandyC

Exactly! If you own any serial numbered Luka cards, you are good. Prizm base has always been fools gold. Congrats to those of you who sold for 2K.

except the 180 day return window.

Be Careful

[FarmchairQB]

Originally Posted by IceTrae11

Vertical > Horizontal > Patch quality (since they all have pretty sweet patches) for more people I think, but the fact these are game worn from his rookie seasons explodes the price. You might see a higher numbered or horizontal pop up and sell for more than "better" copies previously sold just because of the absolute rarity and game-worn aspect.

Makes sense, thanks. The variance in pricing is still striking to me, though. Like why this Horizontal Star Swatch /5 Emerald would sell for 5x this Horizontal /15 Ruby...it still doesn't totally compute for me, but I guess the market is what it is.

The fixation with vertical > horizontal is also interesting to me. Not that I'm complaining, as mine is a vertical. I suppose people like vertical orientation because that's the way sports cards are supposed to look like, and certainly if they're slabbed they look better in portrait vs. landscape. But generally speaking all of these Flawless RPAs look pretty great if you ask me.

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Welcome to LukaLand! Sweet pick ups.

I also have a Flawless Vertical RPA. NT has the reputation and maybe Flawless won't catch up, but I think there is good value in Flawless because it is the only game used RPA out there.

Your assessments are pretty spot on. The only thing with rare high-end Luka stuff is that it will rarely come up for sale, so the price can fluctuate a lot based on who sees it and who wants it. The next Flawless Vert /25 could go for anywhere between $40-60K and it wouldn't surprise me especially with Luka not playing for a few months.

Thanks, very helpful. You're definitely right that it's hard to attach values to these given how rarely they hit the market + how volatile Luka values have been week to week, especially during the season/playoffs. Is your Vertical RPA slabbed? Thoughts/intuition on the value of a Gem Mint Slabbed RPA vs. a Panini encased one?

[dks]

I just saw a guy go 0/38 on Michael porter Jrs. Not a single psa 10. There may be 13k pop but the pop control is real and once those psa 10s go into long term collections (and there are more than ever) it’s inevitable that the prices will go back up!


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[pharmboymatt]

Originally Posted by PSA2Pac

100% lol

everytime there is a dip he posts like the prizm Luka is done for good.

longterm he is fooling himself though.

Some may say the person fooling himself is the one that believes in a pop 13k (and still rising) card that's been massively manipulated.

[Justin7]

for real heck I'd rather own a 2nd yr silver than a prizm base way overprinted

[NoleinJax]

I've been buying Chronicles stuff over the last few weeks trying to get all the base in PSA 10's and quite a few ended last night for around 1/3 less than they did a week or 2 ago. Not sure where the floor is, but I'll be fine being able to pick up some cards that I didn't think I would be able to. Sure it sucks seeing prices of cards I've recently bought drop that much, but I have no doubt they'll bounce back in the long run. Will be fun watching his career unfold.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by NoleinJax

I've been buying Chronicles stuff over the last few weeks trying to get all the base in PSA 10's and quite a few ended last night for around 1/3 less than they did a week or 2 ago. Not sure where the floor is, but I'll be fine being able to pick up some cards that I didn't think I would be able to. Sure it sucks seeing prices of cards I've recently bought drop that much, but I have no doubt they'll bounce back in the long run. Will be fun watching his career unfold.

I think that might be more about the fall of 19-20 chronicles base/paper that's currently happening rather than Luka - though maybe it's a combination of the two.

[Skunkbush]

I love how you guys think 13k pop is too much for the currant demand for lukas. Prizm is the premier base rookie and there are far more than 13,000 collectors/flippers desiring a PSA 10 luka prizm rookie. It doesn't matter how high the supply is, all that matters is how high the demand is.

[Dnic]

Originally Posted by Skunkbush

I love how you guys think 13k pop is too much for the currant demand for lukas. Prizm is the premier base rookie and there are far more than 13,000 collectors/flippers desiring a PSA 10 luka prizm rookie. It doesn't matter how high the supply is, all that matters is how high the demand is.

Lol yah most don't understand simple economics....

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Skunkbush

I love how you guys think 13k pop is too much for the currant demand for lukas. Prizm is the premier base rookie and there are far more than 13,000 collectors/flippers desiring a PSA 10 luka prizm rookie. It doesn't matter how high the supply is, all that matters is how high the demand is.

Agree with this to a point.

With a Pop that high, there is no sense of urgency to buy one because there will ALWAYS be multiple copies available and multiple people selling.

What benefit do I have buying a Luka Prizm PSA 10 now as opposed to in 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years? I'll always be able to snag it if I want and there's no harm in waiting.

[Dnic]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

Agree with this to a point.

With a Pop that high, there is no sense of urgency to buy one because there will ALWAYS be multiple copies available and multiple people selling.

What benefit do I have buying a Luka Prizm PSA 10 now as opposed to in 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years? I'll always be able to snag it if I want and there's no harm in waiting.

Well except for the price you may have to pay in 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years...

[Campbelljh3]

Originally Posted by KingInTheNorth

He's upset he missed out... there's this guy in every player thread, Tatis, Acuna, Trout, Luka, Mahomes ect. They're just bitter about it.

Yep, between these people and scalpers, not sure who needs a sucker punch more!

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by Dnic

Well except for the price you may have to pay in 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years...

I assume if the Luka goes up in value that many other cards will go up with it and one could just sell off and acquire the card.

The Luka Base Prizm PSA 10 to Silver Prizm PSA 10 ratio was roughly 8:1 for the longest time. Recently it's been 4:1, so even as the card has risen in value so has my buying power with other cards to acquire. The value increases, relative to everything else, haven't been as astronomical as the final dollar value would dicatate (assuming you had cards to sell and buy into the rise).

Ipso Facto: If the Luka Prizm Base continues moving upward, I should have other cards available to offset the cost of the rise. If it goes down, I'm also no worse off.

In the end I'll have a chance at a Luka Base Prizm any hour of the day for the rest of his career, and should be able to offset the cost one way or the other.

[zeus22]

Originally Posted by Skunkbush

I love how you guys think 13k pop is too much for the currant demand for lukas. Prizm is the premier base rookie and there are far more than 13,000 collectors/flippers desiring a PSA 10 luka prizm rookie. It doesn't matter how high the supply is, all that matters is how high the demand is.

I view this with similar tone....whether we like it or not, graded (likely PSA 10) have become the "currency" to buy, to buy & hold, or to buy & sell. This "investment vehicle" is becoming a small part of astute retirement portfolios and or day-trading accounts.

Even if graded cards of blue-chip players become a tiny part of peoples portfolios.....the DEMAND will far out pace the SUPPLY. People will not be buying one PSA10 Luka, but trying to buy 5-10 at a time.

Just my view.....

[Asian62150]

Since Prizm RCs are readily available, that means it's easy to buy and also easy to sell.

Sports cards generally aren't super liquid (esp. cards over $500) so there is value in being able to move a card that's $1000-2000 rather quickly.

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by dks

I just saw a guy go 0/38 on Michael porter Jrs. Not a single psa 10. There may be 13k pop but the pop control is real and once those psa 10s go into long term collections (and there are more than ever) it’s inevitable that the prices will go back up!


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Pop control is real but sending in 38 MPJ's doesnt automatically guarantee you will get a 10........if there isnt a 10 in there!

At the end of the day, you still need one that is in a condition that can get a 10. I could send in 100 Clarence Weatherspoons but if all 100 have issues Im not gonna get a gem mint

Originally Posted by pharmboymatt

Some may say the person fooling himself is the one that believes in a pop 13k (and still rising) card that's been massively manipulated.

The point is, the Luka prizm is on an upward trajectory. 6 months, a year, 3 years... the card is going to continue to go up as long as Luka continues on the path that he's on. Conspiracy theories and people praying on its downfall dont mean anything lol

Lets have this convo again every 6 months and see if it continues to drop or go up.

Originally Posted by Skunkbush

I love how you guys think 13k pop is too much for the currant demand for lukas. Prizm is the premier base rookie and there are far more than 13,000 collectors/flippers desiring a PSA 10 luka prizm rookie. It doesn't matter how high the supply is, all that matters is how high the demand is.

Exactly! Its really simple:it comes down to demand. 13k is nothing in the current market, and as more fans come aboard and hop on the Luka train it will be increasingly meaningless.

For example, Lebron has 70 million followers on IG. Luka has 5 million. His popularity will only continue to rise.

Originally Posted by Dnic

Lol yah most don't understand simple economics....

100%

[Giannis34fan]

Originally Posted by dks

I just saw a guy go 0/38 on Michael porter Jrs. Not a single psa 10. There may be 13k pop but the pop control is real and once those psa 10s go into long term collections (and there are more than ever) it’s inevitable that the prices will go back up!

I never understood why people submit more than 5 of the same player's card to get graded in the same submission? It's best to send in 2 or 3 max and do it in Line 1, Line 40 and then the last one Line 75!

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by Giannis34fan

I never understood why people submit more than 5 of the same player's card to get graded in the same submission? It's best to send in 2 or 3 max and do it in Line 1, Line 40 and then the last one Line 75!

I go back and forth on this. Sometimes I feel like your advice makes sense, but then my most recent sub had 18 of the same card and all graded psa 10.

[deemsterz33]

Originally Posted by pharmboymatt

I have some Luka, but I'm a clector not an investatard, so prices tanking back to reality (which is still a ridiculous level) don't bother me at all. It's funny because the only way the price manipulation crap stops, or even slows down, is if enough people get destroyed that they stop buying into the manipulation.

Nice! Let's see those Lukas!

[Giannis34fan]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

I go back and forth on this. Sometimes I feel like your advice makes sense, but then my most recent sub had 18 of the same card and all graded psa 10.

Maybe you got a grader that was tired and the cards were graded on Friday afternoon?! lol

[highgradepat]

Originally Posted by Giannis34fan

I never understood why people submit more than 5 of the same player's card to get graded in the same submission? It's best to send in 2 or 3 max and do it in Line 1, Line 40 and then the last one Line 75!

I'm not disagreeing that this might be beneficial, but if we have multiple copies of the same card, then aren't we supposed to send them to PSA all together? Or do they just not care what order they're in and you just send them?

My theory on if you're subbing multiple cards is to put them in order of worst condition to best. Let's say you have 3 of the same card, one looks like 8-9, another looks outstanding (a likely 10), and one more at a 9-10 range. Since they supposedly grade them in the order you give them, I start with the 8-9 on top, then the 9-10 one, and at the bottom of those 3 cards is the "perfect" one.

Doing this might force their hand at giving better grades as they go. For example, say you squeak a 9 on the first one, they'll then look at the next one and have to at least give it a 9. You might even get lucky and grab a 10. And the last one is basically a layup as a 10.

All of this is depending on your judgment and ability to gauge conditioning, etc., as well as being humble enough to not over project your grades.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I like doing it this way. At the end of the day, there's psychology and subjectivity coming into play here since we're dealing with other humans.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by highgradepat

At the end of the day, there's psychology and subjectivity coming into play here since we're dealing with other humans.

This is so true and unfortunate.

I understand grading can be helpful and I have a good number of graded cards.

But it's sad that grading has not prevented trimming or alterations.

Pop control is also a huge concern. These companies should use the same standard today that they used 10 years ago.

If a card is a 10, it's a 10. Doesn't matter if I send it in today or 5 years from now.

[Giannis34fan]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

This is so true and unfortunate.

I understand grading can be helpful and I have a good number of graded cards.

But it's sad that grading has not prevented trimming or alterations.

Pop control is also a huge concern. These companies should use the same standard today that they used 10 years ago.

If a card is a 10, it's a 10. Doesn't matter if I send it in today or 5 years from now.

That was my beef with PSA and Beckett back in 2002-2005 when I used to submit to them a lot! Average of 250 cards a month if not more... They were not consistent at all! I would have to play the "crack and resubmit" game a couple of times til the card either came back a PSA 10 or BGS 9.5 when it should have been those grades to begin with...

It's good to know that things haven't really changed... from PSA and Beckett still not able to know when a card is trimmed to protecting POP control and so on and on...