The Price Index Carnage Is Real

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Never swam deep enough to really experience much downturn tbh
Low-end Larry bums are mostly unchanged
$1 refractor rcs
$3-5 base TC autos
$15(non auto gold ref)-$50 (gold ref auto)
Play good=cards go up 2-3x
Play poorly= cards go down 25-50%
for the non-hyped players fantasy value and card value remain fairly lock step

The way you would see a price decrease is by getting better players for those prices. In a hypothetical maybe the #150 prospect was in your price range, but now the #50 prospect (or whatever, that's just an illustration).

[rwperu34]

Lots of replies coming from my way. Bear with me;

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Is there a link to this “Price Index”?

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’ve not seen 1 actual detail about this “price index”. I’ve seen Peru mention it likely 100 times, but no details, specifics, etc.

I put a lot of work into the Index, mostly to direct my buying and selling. As such, the details are very valuable to me so I only release snippets.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by lauriontj

What do you think is causing this down trend? Are the Covid people leaving the hobby, or do you think it has to do with the economy as a whole? My guess is maybe a little of both. Less people buying due to the economy, and less people buying in general. I’m also curious to see how the National does this year vs last year. I imagine less people, but who knows…

A lot of people hit on the factors. I can categorize it as one thing; real incomes are falling.

If someone out there has the data, I'd like to see where we are relative to Q4 or even Q3, 2019. IE where are we relative to before the pandemic. We know nominal everything is up, but I have no clue of real incomes.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by StateEx

Thanks for sharing -- I've enjoyed reading your reporting since finding the forums.

As to the market, I think it's also worth adding that, on top of factors like overproduction and the economy, a lot of "top" players have had good but not great/iconic starts to the season or been hurt.

This can't be underestimated. It's why the average player is down less than the market as a whole. All of the big guns are having down years. Some little one's too;

Originally Posted by cnewby

Friggin' Joey Gallo!

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by anusinha

All of the sneakerbois that never knew what a sports card was prior to Nov 19 are bailing out and dumping thier closets full of Hoops Premium Cellos and MPJ donruss PSA 9 slabs to raise money to buy ape JPGs or whatever else the next get poor quick scheme is. The card companies are still in Feb 2021 mode so they are tossing out pallets of wax at peak pricing trying to get suckers to bite.

If you think baseball is rough, take a look at basketball, football, and modern soccer

Those two sports should be at or near their seasonal nadir. Baseball would typically be at or near it's seasonal peak. I think how far down those sports are should give us a pretty good preview of what's in store for baseball between now and January.

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The way you would see a price decrease is by getting better players for those prices. In a hypothetical maybe the #150 prospect was in your price range, but now the #50 prospect (or whatever, that's just an illustration).

Reid Detmers chrome refractor autos are now within range.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

If you're a long time collector and you sat on your collection through the pandemic bubble but finally chose to sell off post bubble, you're an idiot -- plain and simple.

I don't think he's talking about long-time collectors....he's talking about investors & flippers who maxed out their credit cards and invested their life savings in crypto and NFT's while Bitcoin was at 60K.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by BigSlim16

Would you mind sharing the price changes by individual player? I think that would be really interesting to see

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Who is up the most?

Edit: Also who is up the most in absolute dollar terms. Not percentages.

I'll give you a few. Keep in mind this is limited to the 67 guys I have in the Index;

Up over 3x: Isaac Paredes--He really shouldn't be in the Index because he was so cheap to start. The issue is I had such a huge stack.

Up 1.5x-2x-Yordan, Judge, Carroll, Devers

Down 60% or more: Luciano, Kelenic, Madrigal, Sanchez (Jesus), Brennan Davis, Mondesi. There are plenty of others knocking on this door.

Biggest raw dollar gainers; Judge (by a lot), Yordan, J-Rod, Devers, Carroll, Alvarez (C, Mets).

Biggest raw dollar losers: Soto (just short of $1000), Acuna, Tatis, Wander, Vlad. So basically the big five young stars. All have lost more than Judge gained. There are 22 who have lost more than the other Alvarez has gained ($100).

One thing I haven't touched on is since April it's worse. Only Paredes and Judge are up over 1.5x. The median is down 42% and four guys have lost over 2/3 of their value (ie would need to at least triple up to get back).

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

I know we can say gamblers

But wax price and breaker price is so off compared to the brutal single prices

The other shoe has to fall someday

Be careful paying crazy prices to invest in wax

Imo

Yes. 1000 times yes. Eventually the wax has to represent some reality of what the singles in the are worth. Their may be a gamblers premium, but if that gets too high the gamblers will run out of money. I saw this first hand in online poker.

I'm watching Bowman Draft the week before and the week after release (ie when people have to sell). For many reasons it is one of the most stable wax products out there and has followed the Price Index fairly closely over the years.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by tonorator

we are "down" from a massive spike that has occurred over the last 2 years. in the context of the last 5 or 10 years, card price indexes would still reflect a very, very nice appreciation performance, with card prices doubling, tripling, etc. still.

this is more about a recovery from an abnormal spike/bubble vs. any kind of significant shift in the hobby. compared to the market, it is a short-term price correction, but the longer term investor is still doing very well.

this is astronomically true for the prospecting layer, which has become the equivalent of penny stocks and IPO gold-mining.

The first two paragraphs are correct, but the third is patently false. Prospects are like stock options, so time is a factor. That is the missing link between prospect prices and established players prices. When I line the prospects up side by side vs the young MLB stars, the prices all make sense...even before I back out the value the market is paying for age. Once I do that it is pretty close to a list of HOF likelyhood, weighted towards batting and recent production.

I know you want an opportunity to buy the next Soto or even Trout for $100, but that just isn't going to happen. There has to be risk in the price falling or the price isn't high enough.

Originally Posted by tonorator

yes, just like stock investors are when they overinvest in high risk stocks or IPO plays. if they can time if perfectly, they can get a nice payoff, but if not, they indeed get flattened. the window to profit on a prospect is getting smaller and smaller and hot prospects from just a few months ago have already faded away.

This comes down to production. The guys who are producing (pretty much just J-Rod) are up. The guys who are doing OK (Witt, Gorman, Alek Thomas) are down, but up relative to the market. The guys who are doing poorly or injured are down a lot. The guys still in the minors that are rising up the list are up. If they're falling they are down. Prices follow production.

On top of that, the biggest culprit for the downturn this year is the young MLB stars.

On top of that, the guys who are going to be the top prospects next year have yet to reach 75% of the price of the top prospects of last year. Four of the best investments right now, IMO, would be the top 4 prospects on my board. That said, the conventional wisdom used to be buy prospects in July, so maybe it shouldn't surprise me.

[gmoney328]

Anyone who didn't see the carnage coming a year ago must have really had their head in the sand.

[mcwildcats]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The first two paragraphs are correct, but the third is patently false. Prospects are like stock options, so time is a factor. That is the missing link between prospect prices and established players prices. When I line the prospects up side by side vs the young MLB stars, the prices all make sense...even before I back out the value the market is paying for age. Once I do that it is pretty close to a list of HOF likelyhood, weighted towards batting and recent production.

I know you want an opportunity to buy the next Soto or even Trout for $100, but that just isn't going to happen. There has to be risk in the price falling or the price isn't high enough.



This comes down to production. The guys who are producing (pretty much just J-Rod) are up. The guys who are doing OK (Witt, Gorman, Alek Thomas) are down, but up relative to the market. The guys who are doing poorly or injured are down a lot. The guys still in the minors that are rising up the list are up. If they're falling they are down. Prices follow production.

On top of that, the biggest culprit for the downturn this year is the young MLB stars.

On top of that, the guys who are going to be the top prospects next year have yet to reach 75% of the price of the top prospects of last year. Four of the best investments right now, IMO, would be the top 4 prospects on my board. That said, the conventional wisdom used to be buy prospects in July, so maybe it shouldn't surprise me.

Who are these said prospects? Did I miss it? LOL

I really just love buying and collecting sealed wax for the most part. Every once in a while, though, I do still get the itch to start prospecting on singles. I first did that when I got into collecting many years ago and I was just focused on baseball. We're talking early 90s and I didn't have much to spend. Have a bit more now and did some basketball and football prospecting a few years ago with very mixed results and kind of moved on from that once I moved more into the much higher floor of sealed collecting.

But, part of me kind of wants to at least dip back into some prospecting. If one was to do Bowman prospecting, you recommend just sticking with buying PSA 10s and waiting for a good deal to pop on eBay for a prospect you follow? Is there any specific Bowman auto/auto parallel that is better to focus on? I went through the MLB 100 list and just jotted down some names I'm more familiar with that I might consider. I have no interest in pitchers or catchers; just focused on the other spots if I even do jump back into it.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by gmoney328

Anyone who didn't see the carnage coming a year ago must have really had their head in the sand.

The problem is most people who saw it coming a year ago also saw it two years ago. And three years ago. And four years ago. And five years ago....etc.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mcwildcats

Who are these said prospects? Did I miss it? LOL

I really just love buying and collecting sealed wax for the most part. Every once in a while, though, I do still get the itch to start prospecting on singles. I first did that when I got into collecting many years ago and I was just focused on baseball. We're talking early 90s and I didn't have much to spend. Have a bit more now and did some basketball and football prospecting a few years ago with very mixed results and kind of moved on from that once I moved more into the much higher floor of sealed collecting.

But, part of me kind of wants to at least dip back into some prospecting. If one was to do Bowman prospecting, you recommend just sticking with buying PSA 10s and waiting for a good deal to pop on eBay for a prospect you follow? Is there any specific Bowman auto/auto parallel that is better to focus on? I went through the MLB 100 list and just jotted down some names I'm more familiar with that I might consider. I have no interest in pitchers or catchers; just focused on the other spots if I even do jump back into it.

I'd say the key to prospecting is just like everything else. Make a list, compare prices, and try and win the undervalued guys via auction at below current market value.

As for what to buy, it's what you like pretty much. BCA are king, then non-auto #'d, then base refractors, then base chrome, then paper. They all move up and down together and all are equally liquid, so just stick to what you can afford.

The highest price is going to be PSA 10 for sure, but I do very well with PSA 9, BGS 9.5, BGS 9, and raw. The variance is huge on all of it. So again, it comes down to how much you want to spend. For a lower level guy (think Paredes coming into the year), raw is really the only option because there aren't too many graded out there. For mid level guys (Nolan Gorman coming in) you might go for PSA 10. For the cream of the crop (J-Rod), you may be forced to grab a PSA 9 because the price is so damn high. Or you may avoid the top guys altogether.

Another thing I'd recommend is to wait a few weeks after release if your buying the newest guys. Prices are always inflated at release. With Bowman Proper there is some risk the guy will get hot and his price spike, but with Bowman Chrome and Bowman Draft there is little risk of that because the season is over. Whatever you think is a good value in week one or two, that same player will be cheaper in week 6.

[mcwildcats]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I'd say the key to prospecting is just like everything else. Make a list, compare prices, and try and win the undervalued guys via auction at below current market value.

As for what to buy, it's what you like pretty much. BCA are king, then non-auto #'d, then base refractors, then base chrome, then paper. They all move up and down together and all are equally liquid, so just stick to what you can afford.

The highest price is going to be PSA 10 for sure, but I do very well with PSA 9, BGS 9.5, BGS 9, and raw. The variance is huge on all of it. So again, it comes down to how much you want to spend. For a lower level guy (think Paredes coming into the year), raw is really the only option because there aren't too many graded out there. For mid level guys (Nolan Gorman coming in) you might go for PSA 10. For the cream of the crop (J-Rod), you may be forced to grab a PSA 9 because the price is so damn high. Or you may avoid the top guys altogether.

Another thing I'd recommend is to wait a few weeks after release if your buying the newest guys. Prices are always inflated at release. With Bowman Proper there is some risk the guy will get hot and his price spike, but with Bowman Chrome and Bowman Draft there is little risk of that because the season is over. Whatever you think is a good value in week one or two, that same player will be cheaper in week 6.

Thanks for all the tips. I need to spend a bit more time searching completed auctions but I will say that I was surprised that there wasn't much difference in PSA 10 auction completed prices for /250 Bowman purple refractor autos (just took that as a random example to compare across players) for the prospects in the top 10 versus those further down in the 20s and even 30s. Figured there would be a bit more of a difference but it was basically the same price. You'd think if all things are roughly equal, it makes sense to just gamble on the much higher rated prospect. But, I know rankings in MLB are fairly fluid and can probably change a lot in a short amount of time.

[mcgoo2]

Have you noticed whether the high pop vintage is falling faster than low pop vintage or not? Anecdotally I like to watch 52 Topps baseball and 86 Fleer basketball prices, 52 Mantles are holding strong, non-Mantle 52 Topps have fallen a bit but are doing better than most, and 86 Fleer Jordan’s are getting killed. My guess is that it’s getting tough to flip at a high volume and people are consolidating into more high value/low pop cards.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by mcgoo2

Have you noticed whether the high pop vintage is falling faster than low pop vintage or not? Anecdotally I like to watch 52 Topps baseball and 86 Fleer basketball prices, 52 Mantles are holding strong, non-Mantle 52 Topps have fallen a bit but are doing better than most, and 86 Fleer Jordan’s are getting killed. My guess is that it’s getting tough to flip at a high volume and people are consolidating into more high value/low pop cards.

My Price Index is all ultra modern BCA, so no help on vintage.

[rwperu34]

One thing that is pushing prices down that hasn't been mentioned is the Three Day Rule. The amount of kids getting ahold of their parents CC information has fallen drastically since eBay no longer forces us to accept returns for 30 days. This is a welcome development for both buyers and sellers, but the effect on prices can only be in one direction.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Yes. 1000 times yes. Eventually the wax has to represent some reality of what the singles in the are worth. Their may be a gamblers premium, but if that gets too high the gamblers will run out of money. I saw this first hand in online poker.

I'm watching Bowman Draft the week before and the week after release (ie when people have to sell). For many reasons it is one of the most stable wax products out there and has followed the Price Index fairly closely over the years.

Does it? I think it just needs to represent what breakers can get for it. Breakers have permanently thrown off wax prices because they’re playing a different field than individual collectors. They can afford to drive up prices, regardless of what the singles sell for, because they spread their costs over a large group of addicts, I mean, um, collectors.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The problem is most people who saw it coming a year ago also saw it two years ago. And three years ago. And four years ago. And five years ago....etc.

Yeah, there’s a decent sized group of people here who permanently walk around with “The End is Nigh” signs. When you always do that, you’re gonna be right sometimes, possibly even most of the time.

[DynaEtch]

Here is what is happening in Marvel cards: since around March/April this year there has been a softening in prices. PMGs in particular are down, particularly the ones that were run-up into the ten(s) of thousand $ range. But prices in general are much higher than they were at pre-pandemic level, and I don’t see that changing all that much. Perhaps some further softening, but I don’t see cards going back to those levels. Even now I see plenty of cards/wax that are steady or increasing. A lot of it is what card you are specifically talking about, so a price index in Marvel cards wouldn’t even be that productive (I could see it reflecting the downturn in PMGs, and not so much the more steady/healthy niches in the market, creating a false picture of complete gloom)

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Does it? I think it just needs to represent what breakers can get for it. Breakers have permanently thrown off wax prices because they’re playing a different field than individual collectors. They can afford to drive up prices, regardless of what the singles sell for, because they spread their costs over a large group of addicts, I mean, um, collectors.

Yes, but if gamblers go broke, break slots won't be filled and breakers won't have the financial justification to pay high prices for unopened product.

The resale value of cards supports unopened product prices. There's a natural relationship between demand and prices -- even if it's not as strong of a relationship for gambling products.

With prices at record highs during the bubble, break prices were also supported at high levels. But with prices steadily declining on the resale market, break prices should naturally begin to decline.

[Ianhatcher]

This was bound to happen when PSA upped their grading cost for Value to $25 and ultimately turned off the lower tiers effectively ending collector's ability to grade and resell and put that money back into the market.

They and by they I mean card manufacturers, grading companies, resellers all of them ate away at the profits of their very customers and this is the result.

The economy and inflation just expediated the process really.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Yes, but if gamblers go broke, break slots won't be filled and breakers won't have the financial justification to pay high prices for unopened product.

The resale value of cards supports unopened product prices. There's a natural relationship between demand and prices -- even if it's not as strong of a relationship for gambling products.

[B]With prices at record highs during the bubble, break prices were also supported at high levels. But with prices steadily declining on the resale market, break prices should naturally begin to decline[B].

Sure, but will we ever see prices where the average collector can afford to casually buy and rip a box of TC again? I’m not so sure about that. A lot of breakers would need to go out of business first… which is obviously possible.

[OneSickDegen]

Not sure if this has been mentioned already but to add insult to injury I just read a piece from Forbes about the covid student loan moratorium that's set to expire 8/31. This is yet another strong headwind to kick the hobby in the nuts.

It seems the Biden administration is hell bent on letting this expire, as they should. Don't need taxpayers on the hook for snowflakes nonbinary gender studies degree but if you don't think this won't adversely affect the ballcard space, I have news for you.