First Buzz: 2024 Topps Pro Debut baseball cards

[mikejones]

Originally Posted by base set

That’s easy. You start a new thread pretending you don’t want to sell, but you just don’t know what to do, so… now you need advice.


My LCS is offering Topps Chrome Basketball at $475 for a “Hobby” - maybe that will attract all the Vega$ money instead of this.

Don't forgot to add that your were shaking when the pulled it.

[StlBen]

I can see this getting the buzz/bump of 10% price increase or so but I don't see anything that indicates more. If you say you paid $800 for a jumbo case last year, one of my locals has jumbo cases this year for $850....thats less than a 10% increase.

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by mikejones

Don't forgot to add that your were shaking when the pulled it.

Beat me to it lol

[phil]

FWIW Blowout Hobby case price $1025 with coupon today.

[bub838]

Fanatics rep offering hobby case $960 and jumbo $720.

[bub838]

What’s the primary difference between hobby and jumbo? More autos in hobby and more chrome in jumbo?

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by bub838

What’s the primary difference between hobby and jumbo? More autos in hobby and more chrome in jumbo?

Yea, a little give and take.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by bub838

Fanatics rep offering hobby case $960 and jumbo $720.

My rep didnt have any jumbo cases to offer. Those guys are so inconsistent

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by bub838

Fanatics rep offering hobby case $960 and jumbo $720.

I’d jump all over that jumbo case price, $90/box isn’t bad.

[crownand]

Asking my rep about the debut

Yep getting a jumbo case 720 thanks for the heads up!

[Archimedes]

I've never opened hobby. Love jumbos. Are hobby fun?

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by Archimedes

I've never opened hobby. Love jumbos. Are hobby fun?

If you just really like autos, you get 2x the amount in Hobby. But truly, many of the autos are $5 types, if that. You can build considerably more complete paper sets but you get 1/2 the chrome cards from Jumbo.

In a situation like below, where Fanatics is offering Jumbo for 75% of the Hobby case price, it's a pretty easy call for Jumbo.

Hobby Case:
2,112 Paper
144 Chrome


48 Autos
2304 Total

Jumbo Case:
840 Paper
288 Chrome
24 Autos

1152 Total

At least those are the numbers I have saved...

[crownand]

My rep offered 60k game used Ohtani bat and 45k game used Ohtani jersey too! I’m not that big of a spender but cool items. He said they are closing out Ohtani stuff since he went to Topps. My rep says you might be able to buy and sell those on Goldin auctions to make a good flip.

[Archimedes]

Originally Posted by BabaORiley

If you just really like autos, you get 2x the amount in Hobby. But truly, many of the autos are $5 types, if that. You can build considerably more complete paper sets but you get 1/2 the chrome cards from Jumbo.

In a situation like below, where Fanatics is offering Jumbo for 75% of the Hobby case price, it's a pretty easy call for Jumbo.

Hobby Case:
2,112 Paper
144 Chrome


48 Autos
2304 Total

Jumbo Case:
840 Paper
288 Chrome
24 Autos

1152 Total

At least those are the numbers I have saved...

Thanks, all of this makes sense. I'm not a set builder, so don't care about that piece. I like the chrome, chrome parallels, and chance for chrome autos. I've watched hobby case breaks, and jumbos just seem more loaded to me, but I don't know whether there's actually any truth to that. Do they pack more into jumbos since they have fewer autos? I don't know. I guess I could look at the odds. I think I'll stick with jumbos. Thanks for the helpful response.

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by Archimedes

Thanks, all of this makes sense. I'm not a set builder, so don't care about that piece. I like the chrome, chrome parallels, and chance for chrome autos. I've watched hobby case breaks, and jumbos just seem more loaded to me, but I don't know whether there's actually any truth to that. Do they pack more into jumbos since they have fewer autos? I don't know. I guess I could look at the odds. I think I'll stick with jumbos. Thanks for the helpful response.

There are a few Jumbo only parallels I think that can make them appear a bit more juiced. Definitely more chrome parallels come out of it.

[PoPCulture]

Paper base sets are going to factor less into the overall value this year because of the product delays imo. Minor League season for lower levels ends 2 days after release and 9 days for AA. Not much of this will be getting signed at the ballparks this year. This has always driven sets sales. One more positive for Jumbos.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by PoPCulture

Paper base sets are going to factor less into the overall value this year because of the product delays imo. Minor League season for lower levels ends 2 days after release and 9 days for AA. Not much of this will be getting signed at the ballparks this year. This has always driven sets sales. One more positive for Jumbos.

Very good call here. I'll eventually buy a case of Hobby if Topps doesn't mark them under $950ish DTC. Otherwise, I think I'd rather just stick with my 1 jumbo or buy a 2nd jumbo and save $100.

[jdhaugh11]

I like the Jumbo better for 3 reasons:
1) I can make or come really close to making a Chrome set
2) Way more Chrome parallels
3) You usually get 1 or 2 better Chrome autos in a case of Jumbo. Last year the Orange Wave /25 autos were Jumbo exclusive. I ended up pulling 3 in 10 boxes, with 1 being Chourio.

[scotchtape0]

A couple of things that could differentiate 2024 Pro Debut from 2023 Pro Debut:

1. In 2023 Pro Debut, a lot of the better autos were chrome only, including Jackson Merrill, Luisangel Acuna, Jasson Dominguez, James Wood, Andrew Painter, Jordan Lawlar, Marcel Mayer, Colson Montgomery, Orelvis Martinez and Zack Gelof. The better paper only autos included Carson Williams, Edgar Quero, Jordan Beck, Dalton Rushing, Cam Collier.

I would argue that most of the chrome-only 2023 autos were better names and most of the paper-only 2023 autos were lesser prospects.

In 2024, better paper-only autos include Edgar Quero, Arjun Nimmala and Angel Genao. Better chrome-only autos include Ralphy Velazquez and Kendall George.

The 2024 paper-auto checklist and chrome-auto checklist are much more similar than 2023. There's no way to know how much each particular player signed of course, but on paper, this should take away some of the chrome auto advantage.

2. 2024 is adding additional chrome color parallels without adding any new paper color parallels. There will be new chrome parallels /150 along with new x-fractors that likely benefits jumbo boxes more than hobby boxes.

We'll see soon enough whether either of these factors tilt value toward hobby or jumbo.

[jdhaugh11]

It's strange that Beckett has the checklist, but the Topps site still doesn't have it posted. Odds are not posted either.
Hopefully they post in Tuesday once offices open after the holiday.

[bub838]

Odds
https://www.topps.com/media/pdf/odds...seballOdds.pdf

Checklist
https://www.topps.com/media/pdf/MIN2...TCHECKLIST.pdf

[bub838]

The odds are definitely not right. I'd expect an updated one eventually...

[jdhaugh11]

Originally Posted by bub838

The odds are definitely not right. I'd expect an updated one eventually...

Yeah, hopefully it was just someone on their day off rushing to get it posted & not a new way of doing "grouping" odds.
You could still back out the true odds for each variation if these groupings are correct, but I will wait until I have to do it!

[jdhaugh11]

Originally Posted by jdhaugh11

Yeah, hopefully it was just someone on their day off rushing to get it posted & not a new way of doing "grouping" odds.
You could still back out the true odds for each variation if these groupings are correct, but I will wait until I have to do it!

Scrap that idea, several are impossible.

[Badgers0821]

Originally Posted by scotchtape0

A couple of things that could differentiate 2024 Pro Debut from 2023 Pro Debut:

1. In 2023 Pro Debut, a lot of the better autos were chrome only, including Jackson Merrill, Luisangel Acuna, Jasson Dominguez, James Wood, Andrew Painter, Jordan Lawlar, Marcel Mayer, Colson Montgomery, Orelvis Martinez and Zack Gelof. The better paper only autos included Carson Williams, Edgar Quero, Jordan Beck, Dalton Rushing, Cam Collier.

I would argue that most of the chrome-only 2023 autos were better names and most of the paper-only 2023 autos were lesser prospects.

In 2024, better paper-only autos include Edgar Quero, Arjun Nimmala and Angel Genao. Better chrome-only autos include Ralphy Velazquez and Kendall George.

The 2024 paper-auto checklist and chrome-auto checklist are much more similar than 2023. There's no way to know how much each particular player signed of course, but on paper, this should take away some of the chrome auto advantage.

2. 2024 is adding additional chrome color parallels without adding any new paper color parallels. There will be new chrome parallels /150 along with new x-fractors that likely benefits jumbo boxes more than hobby boxes.

We'll see soon enough whether either of these factors tilt value toward hobby or jumbo.

A high end player that did have both chrome and paper in 2023 was Elly.