The Never Too Early 2025 NFL MVP Thread - Page 5

JohnnyHatesJazz · 10-06-2025, 10:46 PM

I'd have to say Baker is in the lead after week 5.

Delta5 · 10-06-2025, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I'd have to say Baker is in the lead after week 5.

Sorry but Allen is still a heavy fave. But, you can scrape Mahomes from the list after this week clunker

asujbl · 10-07-2025, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I'd have to say Baker is in the lead after week 5.

Put some money on it because you can get him at +950

That’s just free winnings

This is where you say “I don’t gamble” and we all say “that’s what people that don’t believe what they posted say”

Carry on

JohnnyHatesJazz · 10-07-2025, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asujbl

Put some money on it because you can get him at +950

That’s just free winnings

This is where you say “I don’t gamble” and we all say “that’s what people that don’t believe what they posted say”

Carry on

I said he was in the lead, I didn’t say he was gonna win it.

Baker’s gonna Baker.

Delta5 · 10-08-2025, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I said he was in the lead, I didn’t say he was gonna win it.

Baker’s gonna Baker.

As of today or any week since the start of the season he was never in the lead. Not even close. Love him but he's not winning it

JohnnyHatesJazz · 10-08-2025, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Delta5

As of today or any week since the start of the season he was never in the lead. Not even close. Love him but he's not winning it

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...d-mvp-type-run

Delta5 · 10-08-2025, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...d-mvp-type-run

You're sending me an espn article to prove he's in the lead? I'm sending you vegas odds which is the best predictor for future outcome

Delta5 · 10-08-2025, 06:55 PM

As of today

Allen +125
Mayfield +850

Those are pretty steep difference

2010GBPackers · 10-08-2025, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Delta5

You're sending me an espn article to prove he's in the lead? I'm sending you vegas odds which is the best predictor for future outcome

That's not what betting odds are at all.

Delta5 · 10-08-2025, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

That's not what betting odds are at all.

Yet somehow it is still the most accurate predictor for future outcomes. Don't trust me? Try to beat it

2010GBPackers · 10-09-2025, 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Delta5

Yet somehow it is still the most accurate predictor for future outcomes. Don't trust me? Try to beat it

But it changes every week. Vegas odds are like the Delta of prediction services, they get to move the goal posts every week, then claim victory. Again, Vegas odds are not the best predictor of future outcomes, and don't claim to be.

Delta5 · 10-09-2025, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

But it changes every week. Vegas odds are like the Delta of prediction services, they get to move the goal posts every week, then claim victory. Again, Vegas odds are not the best predictor of future outcomes, and don't claim to be.

Of course it does, but again as I said. As it stand this week, those are the odds. The difference is also night and day. +125 and +950 is a huge gap, saying Baker is on the lead or even on the same place as Allen currently is a homer take

majestik101 · 10-09-2025, 09:41 AM

Baker's already being hyped as the MVP favorite by several news outlets/ Sports pundits who do this for a living. So I would say, that he's not the heavy favorite but he's in the running. Dude has been playing out of his mind since week one

Emeka Egbuka is also the heavy favorite I would say by a large margin for offensive Rookie of the Year by those same news outlets/sports pundits.

Delta5 · 10-09-2025, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by majestik101

Baker's already being hyped as the MVP favorite by several news outlets/ Sports pundits who do this for a living. So I would say, that he's not the heavy favorite but he's in the running. Dude has been playing out of his mind since week one

Emeka Egbuka is also the heavy favorite I would say by a large margin for offensive Rookie of the Year by those same news outlets/sports pundits.

No doubt, in fact he has third shortest odds to win it and it's pretty good. But, it's still Josh to lose, if he can get 14 wins with pretty good stats (40 TDs) then it's his imo

Now egbuka is a totally different case. He's now -115 to win OROY. So he's def the heavy favorite to win it

majestik101 · 10-09-2025, 10:37 AM

On all these shows I've watched and listened to I don't hear much chatter about Josh Allen being in the MVP discussion.

Usually I'm just hearing Baker and Dak as 1A and 1B

asujbl · 10-09-2025, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by majestik101

On all these shows I've watched and listened to I don't hear much chatter about Josh Allen being in the MVP discussion.

Usually I'm just hearing Baker and Dak as 1A and 1B

Stop saying “these shows”

What shows? Who is saying this?

Because a quick google says articles by “these websites” disagree

majestik101 · 10-09-2025, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asujbl

Stop saying “these shows”

What shows? Who is saying this?

Because a quick google says articles by “these websites” disagree

First Take, Barstool Sports, Up & Adams, just off the top of my head

BostonNut · 10-09-2025, 11:17 AM

Yinz’all are just wasting your time arguing.

Drake Maye is going to run away with it.

Fight me.

Don’t care.

asujbl · 10-09-2025, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by majestik101

First Take, Barstool Sports, Up & Adams, just off the top of my head

Sounds good. I’ll research

JohnnyHatesJazz · 10-09-2025, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Delta5

Of course it does, but again as I said. As it stand this week, those are the odds. The difference is also night and day. +125 and +950 is a huge gap, saying Baker is on the lead or even on the same place as Allen currently is a homer take

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-rank...025-nfl-season

Grid · 10-09-2025, 03:42 PM

Not that certain people in here will listen to facts. But the odds a Sportsbook gives, are not due to exact likelihood of anything.

It is all risk management by the sportsbooks. Their job is to lower their own risk as much as possible. They want to be at 50/50 on any favorites. They make their money on the juice. IE, their commission on every wager.

If Baker and Josh were truly 50/50 odds to win. And more people started betting heavy on Baker than Josh. The books would move the odds to entice bets on Josh or others.

That is why lines move as they do. It is not probability.

Delta5 · 10-09-2025, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grid

Not that certain people in here will listen to facts. But the odds a Sportsbook gives, are not due to exact likelihood of anything.

It is all risk management by the sportsbooks. Their job is to lower their own risk as much as possible. They want to be at 50/50 on any favorites. They make their money on the juice. IE, their commission on every wager.

If Baker and Josh were truly 50/50 odds to win. And more people started betting heavy on Baker than Josh. The books would move the odds to entice bets on Josh or others.

That is why lines move as they do. It is not probability.

But do you agree that the likelihood for Allen to win the MVP is much much more likely as of today than Baker? Otherwise, just go grab that +950 odds if you really think Baker is on the lead, that's a monster value

Onepocketj · 10-09-2025, 07:03 PM

Josh Allen +150
Mahomes +500
Baker +850
Stafford +1200
Love +1200
Goff +1400
Hurts +2000
Herbert +2000

Allen and Mahomes too low for sure.

Onepocketj · 10-09-2025, 07:04 PM

Maybe some Jones and Dak at +3000

imbluestreak23 · 10-09-2025, 07:09 PM

Sooooo, one can say the biggest takeaway from post 1 to now is that the sucker on the 2-3 Chiefies team jumped from 155...assuming nitwit Johnny read correctly...to 2 in a matter of 5 weeks. Nutty!

10-06-2025, 10:46 PM	#101
JohnnyHatesJazz Member Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 7,372	I'd have to say Baker is in the lead after week 5. __________________ "If you can't handle the Patriots dynastic resurgence, call 1-800-YOU-LOSE and I will be more than happy to help you free of charge. Because I'm a NICE GUY." *Captain Of The Mayeflower*

10-09-2025, 09:41 AM	#113
majestik101 Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Socially Distanced Posts: 44,852 majestik101	Baker's already being hyped as the MVP favorite by several news outlets/ Sports pundits who do this for a living. So I would say, that he's not the heavy favorite but he's in the running. Dude has been playing out of his mind since week one Emeka Egbuka is also the heavy favorite I would say by a large margin for offensive Rookie of the Year by those same news outlets/sports pundits. __________________ If you reply with...."last one on eBay sold for this"...then you should have bought it on eBay. "Watson alone sells for over $20" https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1182760

10-09-2025, 10:37 AM	#115
majestik101 Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Socially Distanced Posts: 44,852 majestik101	On all these shows I've watched and listened to I don't hear much chatter about Josh Allen being in the MVP discussion. Usually I'm just hearing Baker and Dak as 1A and 1B __________________ If you reply with...."last one on eBay sold for this"...then you should have bought it on eBay. "Watson alone sells for over $20" https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1182760

10-09-2025, 11:17 AM	#118
BostonNut Member Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 61,784	Yinz’all are just wasting your time arguing. Drake Maye is going to run away with it. Fight me. Don’t care. __________________ "It's true that whenever rectal issues come to mind thoughts of you aren't far behind" - HairySas September 4, 2025 "GD it. I am a doofus." - majestik101 October 16, 2025 “This is the baseball section, NN ” - Bosoxfan5990 November 25, 2025

10-09-2025, 07:09 PM	#125
imbluestreak23 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Meandering the matrix code that the hobby/forum overlords spit out Posts: 17,840 shortslabs	Sooooo, one can say the biggest takeaway from post 1 to now is that the sucker on the 2-3 Chiefies team jumped from 155...assuming nitwit Johnny read correctly...to 2 in a matter of 5 weeks. Nutty! __________________ @shortslabs I'VE WITNESSED HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE HERE...IT'S ROTTEN https://www.youtube.com/c/TylerShort

10-08-2025, 06:55 PM	#108
Delta5 Banned Join Date: Aug 2024 Posts: 3,413	As of today Allen +125 Mayfield +850 Those are pretty steep difference

10-09-2025, 03:42 PM	#121
Grid Member Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Chicago Posts: 13,146 Gridiron-Gladiators	Not that certain people in here will listen to facts. But the odds a Sportsbook gives, are not due to exact likelihood of anything. It is all risk management by the sportsbooks. Their job is to lower their own risk as much as possible. They want to be at 50/50 on any favorites. They make their money on the juice. IE, their commission on every wager. If Baker and Josh were truly 50/50 odds to win. And more people started betting heavy on Baker than Josh. The books would move the odds to entice bets on Josh or others. That is why lines move as they do. It is not probability.

10-09-2025, 07:03 PM	#123
Onepocketj Member Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 22,757 jeflave-0 onepocketj	Josh Allen +150 Mahomes +500 Baker +850 Stafford +1200 Love +1200 Goff +1400 Hurts +2000 Herbert +2000 Allen and Mahomes too low for sure.

10-09-2025, 07:04 PM	#124
Onepocketj Member Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 22,757 jeflave-0 onepocketj	Maybe some Jones and Dak at +3000