Fernando Tatis Jr

[SGC300ier]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Blue BCA BGS 9.5 sold for $5520 in the PWCC weekly. Just wow. Base BGS 9.5 is under $1k. Gold got cut in half to $16.7k. Does not appear to be many buyers right now.

I feel like people even paying that much have a screw loose

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[seanrs1]

To the Tatis collectors still out there...at what price point would the reward out weigh the risk? I know for many there is no price point in which they would buy and they are only looking to liquidate due to the PED suspension. I have a huge collection and I am not looking to sell at this time. I would like to see what happens in the next year or two (I know by that time his card values could approach zero). I keep telling myself that he is a sunk cost. At the same time the reason I started collecting Tatis (despite the numerous red flags) is that I believed in his talent and thought he was the next Ken Griffey Jr. in terms of talent and hobby appeal (he is exciting and fun to watch). I was thinking that maybe if I found some cards I did not have yet that were 70 to 75% down from their price points I would consider...but then again...I tell myself despite the emotional attachment of collecting his cards it is a sunk cost and to move on.

[DioBrando]

Anyone think there is any possibility now that the Padres have Soto they might try to shop tatis around? Especially if they miss the playoffs?

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by DioBrando

Anyone think there is any possibility now that the Padres have Soto they might try to shop tatis around? Especially if they miss the playoffs?

Virtually no possibility...no one would trade for his contract..and he has a no trade clause in his contract.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by DioBrando

Anyone think there is any possibility now that the Padres have Soto they might try to shop tatis around? Especially if they miss the playoffs?

1. The Padres don’t really have Soto. They are borrowing him right now.
2. Nobody’s taking the moron or his full contract!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

To the Tatis collectors still out there...at what price point would the reward out weigh the risk? I know for many there is no price point in which they would buy and they are only looking to liquidate due to the PED suspension. I have a huge collection and I am not looking to sell at this time. I would like to see what happens in the next year or two (I know by that time his card values could approach zero). I keep telling myself that he is a sunk cost. At the same time the reason I started collecting Tatis (despite the numerous red flags) is that I believed in his talent and thought he was the next Ken Griffey Jr. in terms of talent and hobby appeal (he is exciting and fun to watch). I was thinking that maybe if I found some cards I did not have yet that were 70 to 75% down from their price points I would consider...but then again...I tell myself despite the emotional attachment of collecting his cards it is a sunk cost and to move on.

Whether you look at Tatis cards from an investment or collection standpoint, selling right now is the best choice. It's going to be 3/4 a year until he has any chance to bring some positive light back to himself and prices will absolutely continue to go down over that time. If you want Tatis cards, sell now while prices are holding on a bit and then just reinvest in 6 months at half the price or less probably. I see his gem Sapphire still selling in the $900's and think thats down $300-400 come winter.

[BonVoyage]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

To the Tatis collectors still out there...at what price point would the reward out weigh the risk? I know for many there is no price point in which they would buy and they are only looking to liquidate due to the PED suspension. I have a huge collection and I am not looking to sell at this time. I would like to see what happens in the next year or two (I know by that time his card values could approach zero). I keep telling myself that he is a sunk cost. At the same time the reason I started collecting Tatis (despite the numerous red flags) is that I believed in his talent and thought he was the next Ken Griffey Jr. in terms of talent and hobby appeal (he is exciting and fun to watch). I was thinking that maybe if I found some cards I did not have yet that were 70 to 75% down from their price points I would consider...but then again...I tell myself despite the emotional attachment of collecting his cards it is a sunk cost and to move on.

Hard to say. Even with the current drop his cards are still priced in the top 5-6 of current players, right?
He has a lot to prove. Can he mature? Can he stay healthy?
I personally think if he can do those two things his market comes back enough to where his cards are top 3.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

Hard to say. Even with the current drop his cards are still priced in the top 5-6 of current players, right?
He has a lot to prove. Can he mature? Can he stay healthy?
I personally think if he can do those two things his market comes back enough to where his cards are top 3.

The ceiling is that his cards can bounce a little from today’s prices, the floor is that they can drop really hard if he doesn’t become a top 3 player.

I don’t like those odds, especially with the intangibles you are dealing with in Tatis.

There are so many other talented alternatives - why take that risk when money is getting tighter every day?

[BonVoyage]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The ceiling is that his cards can bounce a little from today’s prices, the floor is that they can drop really hard if he doesn’t become a top 3 player.

I don’t like those odds, especially with the intangibles you are dealing with in Tatis.

There are so many other talented alternatives - why take that risk when money is getting tighter every day?

There's a large gap between 1-3 and 4-6. Top 3 would be 2x+ from current prices, so not a little bounce.
Obviously huge question mark if he could ever return to Top 3 status because of health, maturity, PED-stain, performance etc, but the ceiling is higher than you described.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Blue BCA BGS 9.5 sold for $5520 in the PWCC weekly. Just wow. Base BGS 9.5 is under $1k. Gold got cut in half to $16.7k. Does not appear to be many buyers right now.

Those prices are gonna look good in a few months.

And by good I mean good for the sellers.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

There's a large gap between 1-3 and 4-6. Top 3 would be 2x+ from current prices, so not a little bounce.
Obviously huge question mark if he could ever return to Top 3 status because of health, maturity, PED-stain, performance etc, but the ceiling is higher than you described.

2x current prices is still 50% of peak prices - many folks are already severely underwater - I guess if you have the mentality that the chance of losing everything is the same as losing 70%, then you would justify holding.

Don’t forget that his positive PED test truly limits that upwards momentum, it’s a downward pressure that many I feel are grossly underestimating.

[hermanotarjeta]

Remember, collectors are pretty much black or white on the PED stance, you either are willing to overlook that or absolutely not.

If you are against all PED players, why would you buy a Tatis card in the future? - as a seller you’ve already lost that segment of your potential customer base.

What you have left are people who already have Tatis stuff who don’t care about cheating - your only future customer base will be other Tatis collectors who may not want to pay higher prices on his cards.

His stuff really has a low ceiling in the future, but a really low floor if sentiment really goes south from either more PEDs, more injuries, or the worst, poor performance.

We know Tatis on roids can produce, but Tatis without roids could be a disaster.

[BonVoyage]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

2x current prices is still 50% of peak prices - many folks are already severely underwater - I guess if you have the mentality that the chance of losing everything is the same as losing 70%, then you would justify holding.

Don’t forget that his positive PED test truly limits that upwards momentum, it’s a downward pressure that many I feel are grossly underestimating.

No argument on your first point. I was merely disputing that returning to Top 3 status would only result in a little bounce from current prices.

Point two is a concern, but I don't think its set in stone. Other highly collectible players in other sports have stains on their reputation (albeit not PEDs) but have remained highly collectible because of their personality and performance, so why not Tatis? I'm curious to hear what hard questions get asked (if any) about his story. The story sounds kind of bunk to me, but I also don't think there's any stock in the 'he's been juicing for 6 years!' theories.
I still think the bigger questions are Can he mature and Can he stay healthy. When he's healthy and playing I think he's the most exciting player in baseball (not best, most exciting).

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

No argument on your first point. I was merely disputing that returning to Top 3 status would only result in a little bounce from current prices.

Point two is a concern, but I don't think its set in stone. Other highly collectible players in other sports have stains on their reputation (albeit not PEDs) but have remained highly collectible because of their personality and performance, so why not Tatis?
I still think the bigger questions are Can he mature and Can he stay healthy. When he's healthy and playing I think he's the most exciting player in baseball (not best, most exciting).

Other stains in other sports is not steroid use in baseball - whose fans are the most obsessive and compulsive about their statistics and historic records.

Like I’ve mentioned before, it’s a black or white issue. And most all fans historically do not forgive.

In addition, many past roiders have already performed before getting caught. Tatis has barely a year experience under his belt. If he bats .280 with 25 hr going forward, his prices will continue to plummet. Because even though those are solid numbers, he did it with a history of being PED positive.

To even have a small bounce in price, he would need to have a 50/50 season. Good luck with that.

[BonVoyage]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

We know Tatis on roids can produce, but Tatis without roids could be a disaster.

There's no evidence he was using PEDs before.

[seanrs1]

So it seems like the consensus is that Tatis is a sunk cost and the best option moving forward is to sell now. The thing is I started collecting during covid and I mainly buy and I don't really sell. I don't have the time (or the inclination really) to put my cards up on Ebay. I would be selling everything at a loss (as a bought a bunch of graded cards during the peak in 2020/2021). I am sure I am not the only Tatis collector that is underwater. In fact I am underwater on basically every guy I collect (because I bought at peak and never sold) (Tatis, Soto, Acuna Jr., Vladdy Jr., Franco, Bo Bichette, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Cody Bellinger etc). Its a good thing I buy using my fun money (and not as an investment...not that I want to lose money on every guy I buy). The only guy I collect that I am doing well on for the most part is Ohtani.

It seems like the people that are still doing ok are they people that flip cards (and sell short term) or the people that collected pre covid and had low buy in costs.

In general my goal is to have fun collecting. It would be nice though if I have bought the right guys at the right time. I am hoping next year will be different. I am hoping that baseball will see an increase in offense with the new rules (changed shift rules, bigger bags, pitch clock etc.) and that the guys I collect have big years.

In terms of Tatis...I guess I will be holding long term and hoping for the best. I may even pick up a card or two for the right price.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BonVoyage

There's no evidence he was using PEDs before.

Aroid never had evidence he was using before either, until he tested positive.

From the baseball cards perspective, once you have a positive test, your hobby status is toast, no matter when you did it.

[PumpnDumpling]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So it seems like the consensus is that Tatis is a sunk cost and the best option moving forward is to sell now. The thing is I started collecting during covid and I mainly buy and I don't really sell. I don't have the time (or the inclination really) to put my cards up on Ebay. I would be selling everything at a loss (as a bought a bunch of graded cards during the peak in 2020/2021). I am sure I am not the only Tatis collector that is underwater. In fact I am underwater on basically every guy I collect (because I bought at peak and never sold) (Tatis, Soto, Acuna Jr., Vladdy Jr., Franco, Bo Bichette, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Cody Bellinger etc). Its a good thing I buy using my fun money (and not as an investment...not that I want to lose money on every guy I buy). The only guy I collect that I am doing well on for the most part is Ohtani.

It seems like the people that are still doing ok are they people that flip cards (and sell short term) or the people that collected pre covid and had low buy in costs.

In general my goal is to have fun collecting. It would be nice though if I have bought the right guys at the right time. I am hoping next year will be different. I am hoping that baseball will see an increase in offense with the new rules (changed shift rules, bigger bags, pitch clock etc.) and that the guys I collect have big years.

In terms of Tatis...I guess I will be holding long term and hoping for the best. I may even pick up a card or two for the right price.

If you want my input as to a few guys who are current value plays throw me a pm

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by SGC300ier

I feel like people even paying that much have a screw loose

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

$5500 for a blue BCA gem is dirt cheap if you believe he’s going to come back at his 2021 performance level.

I think price action shows that people are kidding themselves by thinking there’s this huge pool of Tatis buyers. There’s not. And even those who are still buyers going forward are going to wait this out as prices move lower and lower.

[SupermanBrandon]

At the end of the day you need a collector base to support the prices. Baseball collectors are very black and white on PEDs. He's been popped. The massive pool of collectors will not be there, going forward. Who are the investors going to sell to?

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

At the end of the day you need a collector base to support the prices. Baseball collectors are very black and white on PEDs. He's been popped. The massive pool of collectors will not be there, going forward. Who are the investors going to sell to?

Is it possible baseball collectors will veiw Tatis differently if he goes on to have a HOF worthy career? I get the past examples are pretty clear, but this situation has never happened before with testing positive at such a young age, while injured.

When I first started collecting in 2020 the advice I was give was to buy flagship RC cards and not Topps chrome because traditional baseball collectors preferred paper over chrome and paper was harder to gem. Turns out baseball card collectors changed their habits and chrome became more popular/valuable.

Hypothetically...Tatis comes back next year after his suspension and has a 50 HR 50 SB year and win NL MVP. Lets also say Acuna Jr. is fully healthy but puts up similar numbers to this year (meaning his cards are way over valued compared to his production). Who will have more value going forward? A guy with a past PED suspension but producing like an MVP or a guy that has lost it and is now only above average?

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Is it possible baseball collectors will veiw Tatis differently if he goes on to have a HOF worthy career? I get the past examples are pretty clear, but this situation has never happened before with testing positive at such a young age, while injured.

When I first started collecting in 2020 the advice I was give was to buy flagship RC cards and not Topps chrome because traditional baseball collectors preferred paper over chrome and paper was harder to gem. Turns out baseball card collectors changed their habits and chrome became more popular/valuable.

Hypothetically...Tatis comes back next year after his suspension and has a 50 HR 50 SB year and win NL MVP. Lets also say Acuna Jr. is fully healthy but puts up similar numbers to this year (meaning his cards are way over valued compared to his production). Who will have more value going forward? A guy with a past PED suspension but producing like an MVP or a guy that has lost it and is now only above average?

No doubt collectors change habits on favorite cards. I dont see them changing their stance on PEDs. Collect as you want. But for the guys "investing" not only are you doubling down by not selling now...but you're tripling down that he will come back better than ever AND enough hobbyist will be around or change their minds about him. The risk is thru the roof!

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Is it possible baseball collectors will veiw Tatis differently if he goes on to have a HOF worthy career? I get the past examples are pretty clear, but this situation has never happened before with testing positive at such a young age, while injured.

He may have been on hobby life support - with this tiny chance of bouncing back to being hobby good —- but he pulled his own plug on the life support machine when he LIED and told the world he was treating a fungus from a haircut - like we are gullible Morons. He is and deserves to be hobby DEAD

[towerymt]

Who are the Tatis buyers right now?

Tatis holders?

or

The Tatis-less?

---------------------

I own zero Tatis over $50. I might buy a Tatis card in the next 6 months.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by towerymt

Who are the Tatis buyers right now?

Tatis holders?

or

The Tatis-less?

---------------------

I own zero Tatis over $50. I might buy a Tatis card in the next 6 months.

I assume Tatis holders/believers are buying Tatis right now while values plummet, hoping that he restores his value next year.