Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[Slvnumber2]

Last show I did before Christmas had a few show up with the mindset of whatever I priced it at they were going lower. Had a Jordan for $15 on the table and two brothers seemingly in their early 30’s asked what is the best you can do on it. I said it is $15 so make an offer if you like. Again “what is the best you can do on it?” I am not going to bid against myself so I responded what is the most you will pay for it? A bunch of people around my table and the next table had big smiles with that one. I always work with people on price, but not playing the game where we keep spiraling down to your price - not my first rodeo.

After the fact I felt maybe I was a little bit of a #&@% to them, but once they moved to the next table and I heard them talking to the dealer next to me I felt vindicated. Every card was “you have $5 in this one what will you take?” $4 dollars how about 3? Next card same thing over and over.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I will be bargain binning the hell out of shows in March/April in Philly and Chantilly.

It's not always worth it flipping through $2 Alec Bohm cards, but every once in a while you find a $30 card that is in a $1 bin.

Oh yea, I have found (buying and even what I had for sale) cards that go for over $5 in the dollar BIN. Actually, found a card that goes for over $15 in mine when I was going through what to keep in it and list on eBay.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Last show I did before Christmas had a few show up with the mindset of whatever I priced it at they were going lower. Had a Jordan for $15 on the table and two brothers seemingly in their early 30’s asked what is the best you can do on it. I said it is $15 so make an offer if you like. Again “what is the best you can do on it?” I am not going to bid against myself so I responded what is the most you will pay for it? A bunch of people around my table and the next table had big smiles with that one. I always work with people on price, but not playing the game where we keep spiraling down to your price - not my first rodeo.

After the fact I felt maybe I was a little bit of a #&@% to them, but once they moved to the next table and I heard them talking to the dealer next to me I felt vindicated. Every card was “you have $5 in this one what will you take?” $4 dollars how about 3? Next card same thing over and over.

The same people who come to sell or trade what they have and want 200+% on their stuff.

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by pewe

No doubt... he doesn't have the exit velocity (and unlikely to develop it later in life). My read: Jeter 2.0

You think Wander Franco is the next Derek Jeter?

[hermanotarjeta]

TSLA bois running out of funds to buy trout rookies.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I will be shocked if he ever puts 20 out in a season tbh

Any one season in his entire career? I'd be shocked if he doesn't get there multiple times. The problem is even if his career high is in the 20s and he gets there several times, that will not support his current prices even if he's a .300 hitter and a perennial all star.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Any one season in his entire career? I'd be shocked if he doesn't get there multiple times. The problem is even if his career high is in the 20s and he gets there several times, that will not support his current prices even if he's a .300 hitter and a perennial all star.

What career numbers would he have to put up (in your opinion) to have these prices be realistic for him? Or even what other SS/3B (lets be real, when he is older, I can see him shifting to 3B when he loses a step or two).

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

What career numbers would he have to put up (in your opinion) to have these prices be realistic for him? Or even what other SS/3B (lets be real, when he is older, I can see him shifting to 3B when he loses a step or two).

He has to be 1996-2000 ARod year over year to make it make sense, and we are not going to see someone that good again play shortstop

[pewe]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

You think Wander Franco is the next Derek Jeter?

We talking on field, potential for WS rings, or on NY Post society pages???

On field, sure, his abilities might be similar to Jeter (if Jeter had a little more power and was a lot better defensively). Longevity will be the tough part to call. That is what really allowed Jeter to put up HOF numbers.

WS rings? Certainly TB may give him many chances.

On the society pages in NYC? Only time will tell if the Yankees decide to pick him up. But this might be the weakness in this Jeter comp.


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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

You think Wander Franco is the next Derek Jeter?

Next Francisco lindor.

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by pewe

We talking on field, potential for WS rings, or on NY Post society pages???

On field, sure, his abilities might be similar to Jeter (if Jeter had a little more power and was a lot better defensively). Longevity will be the tough part to call. That is what really allowed Jeter to put up HOF numbers.

WS rings? Certainly TB may give him many chances.

On the society pages in NYC? Only time will tell if the Yankees decide to pick him up. But this might be the weakness in this Jeter comp.

I'm not sure -- I've never seen anyone make such a comparison and was hoping you'd clarify. Seems it isn't that well thought out. Wander Franco has not finished a full MLB season.

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Next Francisco lindor.

He would be fortunate to have that level of success. It's funny how year to year folks convince themselves the new rookie will be it.

Jo Adell would like a word.

[theshowandme]

Remember guys, according to the 2021 Bowman's Best thread, "no one will care about that midget in Tampa Bay in 10 years anyway"

You are safe if you are not holding his cards.

[jszczech]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

Last show I did before Christmas had a few show up with the mindset of whatever I priced it at they were going lower. Had a Jordan for $15 on the table and two brothers seemingly in their early 30’s asked what is the best you can do on it. I said it is $15 so make an offer if you like. Again “what is the best you can do on it?” I am not going to bid against myself so I responded what is the most you will pay for it? A bunch of people around my table and the next table had big smiles with that one. I always work with people on price, but not playing the game where we keep spiraling down to your price - not my first rodeo.

After the fact I felt maybe I was a little bit of a #&@% to them, but once they moved to the next table and I heard them talking to the dealer next to me I felt vindicated. Every card was “you have $5 in this one what will you take?” $4 dollars how about 3? Next card same thing over and over.

I do enjoy the haggling aspect of shows but I try to be more reasonable with it. I usually only try to haggle significantly if I'm buying multiple items.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

I'm not sure -- I've never seen anyone make such a comparison and was hoping you'd clarify. Seems it isn't that well thought out. Wander Franco has not finished a full MLB season.

He would be fortunate to have that level of success. It's funny how year to year folks convince themselves the new rookie will be it.

Jo Adell would like a word.

It’s the same exact situation as Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton and Byron Buxton.

Although some investor/flippers - “pawns” - were maintaining the hype, clearly there are other, larger, hidden hobby group(s) pushing them behind the scenes.

[Slvnumber2]

Originally Posted by jszczech

I do enjoy the haggling aspect of shows but I try to be more reasonable with it. I usually only try to haggle significantly if I'm buying multiple items.

I don’t mind people trying to get a good/better deal - all of us want that. It boils down to the old saying it is not what you say but how you say it imo. These guys would go to McD’s and negotiate price, how many fries in their box, 15 nuggets for the price of 10….. At that point I am done.

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

It’s the same exact situation as Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton and Byron Buxton.

Although some investor/flippers - “pawns” - were maintaining the hype, clearly there are other, larger, hidden hobby group(s) pushing them behind the scenes.

Yes, I think that's largely correct.

Topps really pushed Adell on the masses.

I'm sure the guys holding the BCA Reds of his are thrilled.

[WallyatJCCards]

Originally Posted by Slvnumber2

I don’t mind people trying to get a good/better deal - all of us want that. It boils down to the old saying it is not what you say but how you say it imo.

Very well said. The approach by younger collectors is just a whole lot different. Not bad or good, just different. One of my favorites from the really young kiddos in the shop will say "How much will you take for this?" and they hand me a card from their collection. I respond with "$40" and they say "Really, wow, deal" So then I put out my hand for the $40... In those instances, I always hook them up, because I am just being a smart arse. I believe everyone who has been selling for a while has a couple two-tree wonderful interactions of any age.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Just loaded up on more cheap stuff in preparation for the show circuit in 2023. In my opinion, this is where the money is going to be for this coming year. Load up on as much cheap stuff as you can find and ride out this wave.

There is a lot of truth to this. Despite the overall market, I went from 6,746 eBay sales in 2021 to 9,345 eBay sales in 2022. Revenue dropped more than 55% but profits were still higher. I also purchased less than 1/3 of the inventory I had last year.

I know the high-end market is sexier for social media but is it really worth it right now from a dollars and cents perspective? Imagine going to any business in America and saying we can reduce your inventory expenses by 66% while increasing your sales volume by 38%, AND you'll make more profits from it. That's exactly what happened to me and I imagine you and others like us.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

I'm not sure -- I've never seen anyone make such a comparison and was hoping you'd clarify. Seems it isn't that well thought out. Wander Franco has not finished a full MLB season.

It’s been the most common comp discussed in this thread over the last year, so I’m surprised you haven’t seen it.

Which part of the detailed three part breakdown, with sub points for on field seemed light on structured thinking?

This is the fun of projections. These are all just hopes of people who enjoy collecting him, and just lay out his potential path based on what seems like his ceiling ability. Which right now is kind of a Jeter ++ type profile.

Longevity and ability to compile stats and compete in WS for 20+ years will be the toughest part, for sure. We won’t have a better view on that for 10-15+ years, unfortunately.


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Remember guys, according to the 2021 Bowman's Best thread, "no one will care about that midget in Tampa Bay in 10 years anyway"

You are safe if you are not holding his cards.

Including them in your collection adds negative value, I believe???


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[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

What career numbers would he have to put up (in your opinion) to have these prices be realistic for him? Or even what other SS/3B (lets be real, when he is older, I can see him shifting to 3B when he loses a step or two).

I think the shape of production you're looking for is Mookie Betts. He was a high average, ordinary power guy with speed and defense when he began his career. The difference is, Mookie was 1/15th the price before he broke out. Even adjusting for the higher market and it is still a factor of nearly 10. It's even worse though because we were talking about the Boston vs Tampa market.

Looking at the SS, the guys who are on an HOF track to varying degrees (Lindor, Correa, Xander, Seager) are all 1/4 the current price of Wander...and two of those play in New York! Another who is not too far behind is Bichette. He's a legit .290 w 25+ HR type and he's only a little over 1/4 the price of Wander...and he's only a few years older in a much, much better market.

The real issue though is his 2023 projection of ~.285 with 16 HR. That's good enough for 5+ WAR (ie he's super baseball good), but that is simply not going to cut it for the hobby. If he hits those numbers he's going to lose ground. Keep in mind, 50% of the time he does worse than that projection. Even when he overproduces, he can have an all star caliber season that still pushes his price down. Really the only thing that can push his price up would be an MVP run. That's not totally unlikely, but it's only in his top ~10-15% of outcomes.

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by pewe

It’s been the most common comp discussed in this thread over the last year, so I’m surprised you haven’t seen it.

Which part of the detailed three part breakdown, with sub points for on field seemed light on structured thinking?

This is the fun of projections. These are all just hopes of people who enjoy collecting him, and just lay out his potential path based on what seems like his ceiling ability. Which right now is kind of a Jeter ++ type profile.

Longevity and ability to compile stats and compete in WS for 20+ years will be the toughest part, for sure. We won’t have a better view on that for 10-15+ years, unfortunately.

Concisely stated: "these are all just hopes of people who enjoy collecting him"...and those who have purchased expensive cardboard.

Much of Jeter's aura was developed around non-tangible things -- leadership, personality, etc. which is why I find the prediction so fascinating. Jeter excelled at things that are difficult to teach or quantify.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

Concisely stated: "these are all just hopes of people who enjoy collecting him"...and those who have purchased expensive cardboard.

Much of Jeter's aura was developed around non-tangible things -- leadership, personality, etc. which is why I find the prediction so fascinating. Jeter excelled at things that are difficult to teach or quantify.

So you are saying Wander needs his ARod to really break out.

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by pewe

So you are saying Wander needs his ARod to really break out.

ARod and ARod's doctor lol.

[cholodolo]

On a market related note:

The rains have come.

Prices are falling left and right.

Wild offers being accepted -- 50, 60, 70% off.

Sellers offering 25% off their stale listings.