2023 MiLB Top Prospect lists

[daeve]

Yoshida not ranked? Hit tool not enough to offset low power and weak defense?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:20 He was a 45+ on the Int'l board, industry consensus is Boston overpayed. Don't think he sucks just think the impact is limited. Would happily be proven wrong, he's been on the site's radar for a while because he's a super fun player.

What happened to Hassell? Do you think he actually bounces back?
Eric A Longenhagen
1:21 Dude I honestly don't know, he bat just looked dead at the very end of the year. I put the tape on again last night (he was one of the last guys I wrote up) and he's just late on everything.

Ok that's about the last of the Q's that I found super interesting

[daeve]

Originally Posted by clsports

Pardon my ignorance, but a couple posters here refer to "my list". Please enlighten me.

check page 4 for my full 100. I don't think anyone else has posted their full lists yet - at least not in this thread.

[dream34]

Thanks daeve for the heads up on the list Always love these

Interesting that they gave Gunnar the 1 spot above Carroll despite the much higher tools grades for Carroll and a much better scouting report. They said it came down to the defensive position fit in the chat.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by clsports

Pardon my ignorance, but a couple posters here refer to "my list". Please enlighten me.

I've done my own prospects list in some form or another since the mid 90s.

This year I rated 126 positional players that had at least 100 PA in full season ball plus ~80 guys or so from the draft.

[rwperu34]

The guy that seems farthest out of place for me is Merrill. I saw him in the AFL and he seemed pretty ordinary...even for a guy that young. For example, I liked Lawlar and his backup Winn much better. I've got those two at #7 and 8 among position prospects, so likely Top 10 overall depending where the pitchers fall.

On the stats alone Merrill would be clearly outside the Top 100. What I saw in AFL wouldn't change that. Even with the helium he's getting from everyone else dragging him up I still would only have him in the back half of the Top 100.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

The guy that seems farthest out of place for me is Merrill. I saw him in the AFL and he seemed pretty ordinary...even for a guy that young. For example, I liked Lawlar and his backup Winn much better. I've got those two at #7 and 8 among position prospects, so likely Top 10 overall depending where the pitchers fall.

On the stats alone Merrill would be clearly outside the Top 100.
What I saw in AFL wouldn't change that. Even with the helium he's getting from everyone else dragging him up I still would only have him in the back half of the Top 100.

thanks for the first-hand account - I gotta think ranking him that high is maybe Eric liking him personally along with a source he trusts backing up his bias/preference. Will be watching Merrill a bit closer now for-sure.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by dream34

Thanks daeve for the heads up on the list Always love these

Interesting that they gave Gunnar the 1 spot above Carroll despite the much higher tools grades for Carroll and a much better scouting report. They said it came down to the defensive position fit in the chat.

no prob - gets me excited over the long wait for my 20-team dynasty league draft to begin - we each get 15 milb players over the season, keep 10 every year at cut-off and only get 1 in-season "add" [no draftees / signees eligible until next draft] so it makes it fun scouting and making lists while I wait. And obviously with 300 players being kept/drafted, you gotta know your stuff and be able to find value with whatever's left over with your 1 in-season add [which can also be traded, making it very fun].

[DeegsHobby]

Seems like they're underrating Evan Carter for doing everything well, but nothing necessarily plus-plus. That along with perhaps a humble demeanor...

Looks to me like a great baseball player that will simply require time to get on everyone's radar. Kyle Tucker, anyone? Much easier to stand out for the Rangers when he does make it, however.

[Funkster]

Just saw Painter with elbow soreness…that’s…not great.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by Funkster

Just saw Painter with elbow soreness…that’s…not great.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That was like a week ago...no updates since then, which is super weird.

[clsports]

No news is good news!

[hammertime]

Originally Posted by clsports

No news is good news!

[daeve]

Updating my lists for August - not including recent draftees yet. And excluding guys who are up in MLB because they will most likely surpass the rookie eligibility thresholds. If they get demoted and retain eligibility they will join the draftees in my February list.

Top 100 MiLB Prospects, August '23


1. Jackson Chourio
2. Jackson Holliday
3. Ethan Salas
4. Junior Caminero
5. Ricky Tiedemann
6. Termarr Johnson
7. Jackson Merrill
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong
9. Druw Jones
10. Samuel Basallo
11. James Wood
12. Jordan Lawlar
13. Jacob Misiorowski
14. Evan Carter
15. Adael Amador
16. Masyn Winn
17. Tink Hence
18. Colson Montgomery
19. Noelvi Marte
20. Marcelo Mayer
21. Dylan Lesko
22. Kyle Harrison
23. Diego Cartaya
24. Yu-Min Lin
25. Samuel Zavala
26. Cade Horton
27. Jake Eder
28. Kevin Alcantara
29. Jeferson Quero
30. Colt Keith
31. Mick Abel
32. Ben Brown
33. Dalton Rushing
34. Cole Young
35. Brooks Lee
36. Ronny Mauricio
37. David Festa
38. Carson Whisenhunt
39. Noah Schultz
40. Coby Mayo
41. Ty Madden
42. Harry Ford
43. Bryan Ramos
44. Jasson Dominguez
45. Heston Kjerstad


Still working on 46-100.


Some notes:

Ranking pitchers is always tough but seemed tougher than usual. A lot of the top guys are up in MLB, so it does seem a bit lonely at the top... and it feels like it's more projection than usual.

As usual my lists are more real-world than fantasy purposes, but they do lean heavily towards 'value', so guys with high ceilings that play + or ++ defensively or project to have high defensive value are typically rated highly. That being said, I go based a lot off what I see visually, so occasionally I like a bat/arm enough that he may be rated highly despite big question marks as to future defensive value. [For pitchers this can mean future RP designations, though they do get knocked if it seems like they are trending towards being RP's. A good example would be someone like Espino, who now due to multiple injuries seems absolutely destined for the pen.] But with the ever-evolving use of Pitchers in MLB now, it seems this is tougher than ever to get a feel for. There's also guys like Spencer Strider who are bucking the "2-pitch=RP" trend and dominating, thus making it feel like an even bigger 'guess' as to who will be able to retain SP workloads.

[brios8]

Druw Jones higher than Jordan Lawlar?

[daeve]

Originally Posted by brios8

Druw Jones higher than Jordan Lawlar?

Druw was really tough to rank since he hasn't played. I'm not super high on Lawlar's hit tool compared to others [I tend to agree with Fangraphs' present '35' on it and not sure it gets much higher or any higher barring some dramatic shift] - but from my Feb list, Lawlar did move up 4 spots while Druw moved down 4.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by daeve

Druw was really tough to rank since he hasn't played. I'm not super high on Lawlar's hit tool compared to others [I tend to agree with Fangraphs' present '35' on it and not sure it gets much higher or any higher barring some dramatic shift] - but from my Feb list, Lawlar did move up 4 spots while Druw moved down 4.

That Druw ranking seems high after what he did in limited action this year.

[brios8]

I would prob flip Druw Jones with Noelvi Marte

[daeve]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

That Druw ranking seems high after what he did in limited action this year.

Nothing to gain from 46 PA really... I don't have another guy that's 50-70s tools across the board... aside from Chourio if you really believe in the hit, but even then there's a huge physical difference between the two. Then the next closest you run into is Dyan Jorge - who I have in the next wave [or 5-10 slots].

[Skippy]

Nice list Daeve. I'm high on Ethan Salas as well. That kid is the truth.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by daeve

Nothing to gain from 46 PA really... I don't have another guy that's 50-70s tools across the board... aside from Chourio if you really believe in the hit, but even then there's a huge physical difference between the two. Then the next closest you run into is Dyan Jorge - who I have in the next wave [or 5-10 slots].

This is an example of why it's so fun to follow prospects. There are multiple ways to look at things, and it provides differing views, rankings, etc. Fun conversations.

One thing that stands out here - you kind of question Chourio's hit tool a bit. Chourio is 3 months younger than Druw, and obviously annihilated Low A last year, was solid in Hi A, and this year is performing very well in AA. Interesting to follow how Druw's hit tool isn't in question, but Chourio's is (as it relates to 50-70 grade tools across the board).

It's going to be interesting to see how Druw does next year, that is for sure.

[rwperu34]

I like it!

I don't do my list until the season is over, but I've been thinking about the top. I was leaning toward the same Jackson at #1 as you have even before his recent hot streak. The other pure Grade A prospect for me is Caminero. I hadn't really thought much beyond that other than James Wood is not a Grade A at this point. As I think about it now, Salas is probably the 4th Grade A and should come in at #3 or #4 on my list, with a rough projection of $250-$400 for his BCA if it's in Chrome.

On Druw Jones, I am docking him for being injured again. You can't glean much from 64 PA (I count his turrible 18 in the ACL as well), but the fact that he's only at 64 PA over a year from being drafted is damning in itself. He'll get docked a whole tier for me, from A- to B+. I had Lawlar at A-/A coming into the year (ie ahead of Druw). He's getting docked too, but not as much as Jones.

If it means anything, I got eyes on Druw this year. His defense is not as good as Alek Thomas at a similar stage, although the tools are obvious. Lawlar had (as of last year's AFL) obvious but unrefined tools as well and a chance to be elite at SS, IMO. If Lawlar needed to move to CF, he'd probably have just as much defensive upside as Jones in the OF.

[letsgocapitals]

I'm slashing .352/.426/.604 at Triple-A this season.

I'm way too low on your list.

[Moneychrome20]

Ain’t no yanquiel

[Kg98]

Originally Posted by daeve

Updating my lists for August - not including recent draftees yet. And excluding guys who are up in MLB because they will most likely surpass the rookie eligibility thresholds. If they get demoted and retain eligibility they will join the draftees in my February list.

Top 100 MiLB Prospects, August '23


1. Jackson Chourio
2. Jackson Holliday
3. Ethan Salas
4. Junior Caminero
5. Ricky Tiedemann
6. Termarr Johnson
7. Jackson Merrill
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong
9. Druw Jones
10. Samuel Basallo
11. James Wood
12. Jordan Lawlar
13. Jacob Misiorowski
14. Evan Carter
15. Adael Amador
16. Masyn Winn
17. Tink Hence
18. Colson Montgomery
19. Noelvi Marte
20. Marcelo Mayer
21. Dylan Lesko
22. Kyle Harrison
23. Diego Cartaya
24. Yu-Min Lin
25. Samuel Zavala
26. Cade Horton
27. Jake Eder
28. Kevin Alcantara
29. Jeferson Quero
30. Colt Keith
31. Mick Abel
32. Ben Brown
33. Dalton Rushing
34. Cole Young
35. Brooks Lee
36. Ronny Mauricio
37. David Festa
38. Carson Whisenhunt
39. Noah Schultz
40. Coby Mayo
41. Ty Madden
42. Harry Ford
43. Bryan Ramos
44. Jasson Dominguez
45. Heston Kjerstad


Still working on 46-100.


Some notes:

Ranking pitchers is always tough but seemed tougher than usual. A lot of the top guys are up in MLB, so it does seem a bit lonely at the top... and it feels like it's more projection than usual.

As usual my lists are more real-world than fantasy purposes, but they do lean heavily towards 'value', so guys with high ceilings that play + or ++ defensively or project to have high defensive value are typically rated highly. That being said, I go based a lot off what I see visually, so occasionally I like a bat/arm enough that he may be rated highly despite big question marks as to future defensive value. [For pitchers this can mean future RP designations, though they do get knocked if it seems like they are trending towards being RP's. A good example would be someone like Espino, who now due to multiple injuries seems absolutely destined for the pen.] But with the ever-evolving use of Pitchers in MLB now, it seems this is tougher than ever to get a feel for. There's also guys like Spencer Strider who are bucking the "2-pitch=RP" trend and dominating, thus making it feel like an even bigger 'guess' as to who will be able to retain SP workloads.

Termarr Johnson over James Wood seems to be a steaming hot take. Why so low on Wood?

[daeve]

Originally Posted by Skippy

Nice list Daeve. I'm high on Ethan Salas as well. That kid is the truth.

He's really something - I wouldn't fault anyone for having him #1 overall, but I think the strength of 'the Jacksons' is enough to keep him a worthy #3.