American League MVP

[speedyjg13]

Angels fan here.

Aaron Judge by a landslide.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

We must be misreading each other I never meant to criticize Ramirez all I am saying is he goes unnoticed because of where he plays, put him on the Yankees Dodgers or a couple of other big city teams and he would be a household name. We might find out just how much New York means to judge if he signs elsewhere. The reason Ramirez will have a hard time winning an mvp this year is because Judge was on a home run record pace until the last 2 games and Ohtani is a 2 way player having a great year. I want Judge to win it but he will have a hard time holding off Ohtani. I still maintain as long as Ohtani remains a 2 way player unless someone has a record breaking season he will be almost impossible to beat.

I get what you are saying about JRam being in Cleveland. I was really only putting counter points down to what you were saying. I just don't agree with Ohtani basically getting handed the MVP since he is a two way player. I just believe regardless of the player or team that it should go by value to the team and the numbers they put up. At the same time I can understand this could be a very flawed opinion and see the other sides of the conversation.

[spuds1961]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

I get what you are saying about JRam being in Cleveland. I was really only putting counter points down to what you were saying. I just don't agree with Ohtani basically getting handed the MVP since he is a two way player. I just believe regardless of the player or team that it should go by value to the team and the numbers they put up. At the same time I can understand this could be a very flawed opinion and see the other sides of the conversation.

I agree but it is what it is.

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by rman112

Trust me, I definitely don't think that WAR should the end-all, be-all. But it's certainly not matching up with the idea of an Ohtani runaway like the argument implies. How much more value do you want to give him in order for it to be accurate?

That may be an argument someone has made, but it certainly wasn't me. I've got him in front of Judge, but I absolutely never said it was by a wide margin (much less a runaway margin).

The entire concept of "using WAR to judge the 'value' of a player" just falls apart, for me, when you're looking at a true two-way player. In the real world, you know for an absolute fact that you can't replace Ohtani with another two-way player. There just IS no "replacement player" to validly compare him against. Calculating his WAR as if he was a position player and his WAR as if he was a pitcher and just adding the two numbers together is, to me, just way too simplistic.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by zworykin

That may be an argument someone has made, but it certainly wasn't me. I've got him in front of Judge, but I absolutely never said it was by a wide margin (much less a runaway margin).

The entire concept of "using WAR to judge the 'value' of a player" just falls apart, for me, when you're looking at a true two-way player. In the real world, you know for an absolute fact that you can't replace Ohtani with another two-way player. There just IS no "replacement player" to validly compare him against. Calculating his WAR as if he was a position player and his WAR as if he was a pitcher and just adding the two numbers together is, to me, just way too simplistic.

I brought this up earlier, but I think if you're going to look at something like replacement player (real or hypothetical), you also need to look at the fact that he has to DH. How many times did a good hitter have to not play (or pinch-hit only) because they couldn't DH? I don't follow the Angels close enough to know, but I'm sure that's happened with both Trout and Rendon this year. In that way, I wouldn't consider Ohtani to be a true 2-way player either. Unless I guess if you consider a pitcher that plays the field to be a 3-way player.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by zworykin

That may be an argument someone has made, but it certainly wasn't me. I've got him in front of Judge, but I absolutely never said it was by a wide margin (much less a runaway margin).

Just in case people think that someone is me, I do not believe that if Ohtani wins it would be unanimous. I think we'll definitely see some split 1st place votes this year.

[zworykin]

Originally Posted by rman112

I brought this up earlier, but I think if you're going to look at something like replacement player (real or hypothetical), you also need to look at the fact that he has to DH. How many times did a good hitter have to not play (or pinch-hit only) because they couldn't DH? I don't follow the Angels close enough to know, but I'm sure that's happened with both Trout and Rendon this year. In that way, I wouldn't consider Ohtani to be a true 2-way player either. Unless I guess if you consider a pitcher that plays the field to be a 3-way player.

I don't follow. If, on any given game day, they had someone available to play DH, who they thought was better than Ohtani at DH, wouldn't they have just... started that other player?

[rman112]

Originally Posted by zworykin

I don't follow. If, on any given game day, they had someone available to play DH, who they thought was better than Ohtani at DH, wouldn't they have just... started that other player?

Most teams nowadays like to use the DH position as a pseudo-day off. If you look at the Angels, pretty much all of their better hitters have been dinged up at one point or another. On another team, those guys probably DH more to give them a break without completely losing them in the lineup.

So if you're going to open the discussion up to other players on the roster, there's a lot that could go into that.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by zworykin

That may be an argument someone has made, but it certainly wasn't me. I've got him in front of Judge, but I absolutely never said it was by a wide margin (much less a runaway margin).

The entire concept of "using WAR to judge the 'value' of a player" just falls apart, for me, when you're looking at a true two-way player. In the real world, you know for an absolute fact that you can't replace Ohtani with another two-way player. There just IS no "replacement player" to validly compare him against. Calculating his WAR as if he was a position player and his WAR as if he was a pitcher and just adding the two numbers together is, to me, just way too simplistic.

I think what you are suggesting is:
1) you couldn’t replace Ohtani and get the same result
2) you could replace Judge and get the same result

I’m not sure either of those is true. Part of Ohtani’s weakness in the current rules of the game is he is fully replaceable. While he is a highly unusual combination of skills, that is extraordinary from a difficulty standpoint… he also doesn’t create more value than another top 10 pitcher + good DH combo. For instance would you rather have Ohtani, or Verlander + Yordan? This is the real problem Ohtani faces… he is a good option for P+DH, but not as valuable as what you can get out of two players on other teams.

On the other hand, could you replace Judge with two players? Or JoRam? I’m not sure we can create a Frankenstein platoon that would beat their performance.

Thus from a true MVP standpoint Judge or JoRam are more irreplaceable than Ohtani. Even if Ohtani is rarer to deliver his result.


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[zworykin]

Originally Posted by rman112

Most teams nowadays like to use the DH position as a pseudo-day off. If you look at the Angels, pretty much all of their better hitters have been dinged up at one point or another. On another team, those guys probably DH more to give them a break without completely losing them in the lineup.

So if you're going to open the discussion up to other players on the roster, there's a lot that could go into that.

Sure - and if the Angels felt like giving one of those guys a day off at DH would be a better option than having Ohtani at DH... they would do it. There's no rule that says "Ohtani must DH [x] times per week"...

(In any event, they don't DH him every game anyway - so they still get to use the spot that way, though not as often as other teams do, admittedly)

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by pewe

I think what you are suggesting is:
1) you couldn’t replace Ohtani and get the same result
2) you could replace Judge and get the same result

I’m not sure either of those is true. Part of Ohtani’s weakness in the current rules of the game is he is fully replaceable. While he is a highly unusual combination of skills, that is extraordinary from a difficulty standpoint… he also doesn’t create more value than another top 10 pitcher + good DH combo. For instance would you rather have Ohtani, or Verlander + Yordan? This is the real problem Ohtani faces… he is a good option for P+DH, but not as valuable as what you can get out of two players on other teams.

On the other hand, could you replace Judge with two players? Or JoRam? I’m not sure we can create a Frankenstein platoon that would beat their performance.

Thus from a true MVP standpoint Judge or JoRam are more irreplaceable than Ohtani. Even if Ohtani is rarer to deliver his result.


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I'm not following this at all. How does Ohtani not drive more value from another SP + DH combo when he's literally both of those other players you mentioned in the same body? By having one player be both of those things, it allows the team to field another person completely. Your frankenstein example would be complete if you added that extra person's value to Ohtani.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Sure - and if the Angels felt like giving one of those guys a day off at DH would be a better option than having Ohtani at DH... they would do it. There's no rule that says "Ohtani must DH [x] times per week"...

(In any event, they don't DH him every game anyway - so they still get to use the spot that way, though not as often as other teams do, admittedly)

That's not what I'm saying.

[Bcr]

Originally Posted by pewe

I think what you are suggesting is:
1) you couldn’t replace Ohtani and get the same result
2) you could replace Judge and get the same result

I’m not sure either of those is true. Part of Ohtani’s weakness in the current rules of the game is he is fully replaceable. While he is a highly unusual combination of skills, that is extraordinary from a difficulty standpoint… he also doesn’t create more value than another top 10 pitcher + good DH combo. For instance would you rather have Ohtani, or Verlander + Yordan? This is the real problem Ohtani faces… he is a good option for P+DH, but not as valuable as what you can get out of two players on other teams.

On the other hand, could you replace Judge with two players? Or JoRam? I’m not sure we can create a Frankenstein platoon that would beat their performance.

Thus from a true MVP standpoint Judge or JoRam are more irreplaceable than Ohtani. Even if Ohtani is rarer to deliver his result.


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You are looking at this the wrong way. Ohtani being 2 elite players in one is the advantage. That's an extra roster spot of production they get.

So if Judge was an elite pitcher as well he'd be less valuable???

[cnewby]

Who cares about Jose Ramirez?!?!?! This is a thread about the MVP race.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I'm not following this at all. How does Ohtani not drive more value from another SP + DH combo when he's literally both of those other players you mentioned in the same body? By having one player be both of those things, it allows the team to field another person completely. Your frankenstein example would be complete if you added that extra person's value to Ohtani.

Originally Posted by Bcr

You are looking at this the wrong way. Ohtani being 2 elite players in one is the advantage. That's an extra roster spot of production they get.

So if Judge was an elite pitcher as well he'd be less valuable???

How much value does that additional AAAA player add on most teams? If it is 0, that player is probably doing well.

That extra roster spot is worth nearly nothing from an outcome basis. And is often part of a rotation of players moving up and down from the minors as they get “a cup of tea” in MLB and washing back out.

And that is in the beneficial spot where you argue Ohtani fully eliminates the requirement for another player. Which you’ve said he doesn’t do because he isn’t an every day DH.


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[zworykin]

Originally Posted by rman112

That's not what I'm saying.

Ok, then, as I said, I'm not following. You seem to be suggesting that it's somehow to the team's detriment that Ohtani is occupying the DH slot. I'm saying that if he's in the DH slot, it's because the team has decided he is their best option that day at DH. If he's such a valuable batter that the team considers it better to have him in the lineup than, say, to let Trout DH that day to rest his legs... that says something positive about his value, not negative.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Ok, then, as I said, I'm not following. You seem to be suggesting that it's somehow to the team's detriment that Ohtani is occupying the DH slot. I'm saying that if he's in the DH slot, it's because the team has decided he is their best option that day at DH. If he's such a valuable batter that the team considers it better to have him in the lineup than, say, to let Trout DH that day to rest his legs... that says something positive about his value, not negative.

No. It's that he has to DH. So if you want to bring in factors that includes other players, it's not as simple as trying to figure out what an extra player would add.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by zworykin

Ok, then, as I said, I'm not following. You seem to be suggesting that it's somehow to the team's detriment that Ohtani is occupying the DH slot. I'm saying that if he's in the DH slot, it's because the team has decided he is their best option that day at DH. If he's such a valuable batter that the team considers it better to have him in the lineup than, say, to let Trout DH that day to rest his legs... that says something positive about his value, not negative.

So you are saying Ohtani is more valuable than Verlander + Yordan? Or Gausman + Kirk?


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[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by pewe

So you are saying Ohtani is more valuable than Verlander + Yordan? Or Gausman + Kirk?


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Verlander + Yordan? No. That's literally the best SP and best DH.

Gausman + Kirk? Yes. Even WAR supports this.


You have to remember that Ohtani doesn't have to be the best pitcher AND best DH to be the MVP. He already proved that last year.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Verlander + Yordan? No. That's literally the best SP and best DH.

Gausman + Kirk? Yes. Even WAR supports this.


You have to remember that Ohtani doesn't have to be the best pitcher AND best DH to be the MVP. He already proved that last year.

Gausman + Kirk are at 8.5 WAR


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[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by pewe

Gausman + Kirk are at 8.5 WAR


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BBRef has them at 5.9 combined.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by pewe

Gausman + Kirk are at 8.5 WAR


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FIP sucks.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by rman112

FIP sucks.

Is that what causes Gausman's WAR discrepancy?

Fangraphs = 5.1
BBRef = 2.4

[pewe]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

Verlander + Yordan? No. That's literally the best SP and best DH.

Gausman + Kirk? Yes. Even WAR supports this.


You have to remember that Ohtani doesn't have to be the best pitcher AND best DH to be the MVP. He already proved that last year.

I’m just demonstrating that in the current rules of the game that Ohtani is more easily replaced. And the added value comparison he’d have to overcome in his pursuit of P+DH play is higher than a stand alone position player.

It doesn’t take away from the fact that what he’s doing is unprecedented.


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[majestik101]

There is no way no how that Ohtani is MVP this year